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Pros and cons of deficit spending, Libya, the importance of political events on investing and some companies

ker
May 28, 2011

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In this show Al discusses:

  • Segment 1 – Author Ellen Brown discusses her argument concerning deficit spending.
  • Segment 2 – Ellen Brown discusses why she believes the U.K., France and the U.S. are involved in Libya.
  • Segment 3 – Brien Lundin, of The New Orleans Investment Conference, discusses gold and the past “summer doldrums” and a couple of mining companies he follows.
  • Segment 4 – Marshall Berol discusses the philosophy of the Encompass Fund as it relates to the relationship between political events and investing.
  • Segment 5 – Al and Peter Grandich discuss Friday’s news on Bloomberg outlining lower predictions of worldwide economic growth and the possible effect of this on precious metals. They also discuss Silver Quest Resources.
  • Segment 6 – Ron Coombs, President of White Tiger Mining provides another update on his company.
  • Segment 7 – Gary Cope, President of Orex Minerals, discusses mining in Sweden.
  • Segment 8 – Al closes out the show with the regular weekly discussion of the energy sector with Keith Schaefer.



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Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

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Discussion
68 Comments
    May 28, 2011 28:58 AM

    When are you going to interview G Edward Griffin. He recently published the in depth study of the Federal Reserve. This is the most important financial book of the last 50 years! The title is: “The Creature from Jekyll Island.” Get it! Read it! Report it! What are you waiting for? Millions have been sold, and you are out of the loop! Oremus!

      May 28, 2011 28:30 AM

      This book was published 17 years ago. Yes, it is as relevant as it ever was, but it is you who has been out of the loop!

      May 31, 2011 31:58 AM

      Morning Dr. Hepperia,

      I have interviewed him in the past. I will definitely see if he is available for an interview this week.

      Best,

      Big Al

    May 28, 2011 28:15 AM

    The Federal Reserve is a PRIVATE banking cartel that issues our money as DEBT.

    What is she talking about zero interest rates?

    A private banking cartel would not issue money INTEREST FREE.

    They can’t make money on ZERO interest

      May 29, 2011 29:57 PM

      They return their profits to the government after deducting costs. See, e.g., here –
      http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/11/AR2010011103892.html
      “The Fed, unlike most government agencies, funds itself from its own operations and returns its profits to the Treasury.”
      They don’t WANT to return their profits, but they were forced into it in the 1960s, when Wright Patman, head of the House Banking and Currency Committee, saw what they were up to and tried to get them nationalized.

      Feb 02, 2014 02:08 AM

      Re: “Jamie, a small area in Japan needs to be evacuated for a few gtniraeeons.”Always unasked is Based whose criteria? On radiation adverse Japanese officials so skittish that they’d confiscate a radium dial watch, or on cities so soaked with background radiation that the area outside Fukushima’s gates would be a day in the arctic? It’s no the “Forbidden Zone” of the Planet of The Apes! There’s no reason they couldn’t have reopened that area for habitation months ago. Have land values in that region sunk any? Heck, if they threw up their hands and told the world that Fukushima’s a lost cause evacuated area and now available for free homesteading if you sign our wavier, there’re not enough ships to truck the fresh population in!James GreenidgeQueens NY

    May 28, 2011 28:15 AM

    Ellen Brown has a false paradigm; war production does not create wealth. She is right about (a half-truth) debt, like credit or money it is neither bad nor good, but a tool which could be used for bad or good. Central / oligarchic planning is bad, which causes malinvestment, invites cronyism, corruption, theft in a system based on fraud.
    Our most productive time without or little debasement (what the politicos could pull) after the 2nd (central bank) Bank of the United States was abolished, and until the (3rd central bank) was formed!
    God bless you and yes I support Ron Paul the most important candidate for President since Andrew Jackson.
    Thank you Big Al and have pleasant Memorial Day weekend!

    May 28, 2011 28:32 AM

    There are just too many quality opinions out there to justify wasting any time on Ellen Brown’s.

    May 28, 2011 28:39 AM

    The people are sovereign, not the state, the state it our servant, quoting Fed chief from of the 1940’s, the fox guarding the henhouse. We need a bi-metallic (or similar venue) standard where the people control their wealth and the oligarchy has very little to do with our transactions. This is an out and out Ponzi scheme; creating coupons (electronic or otherwise) out of thin air does not create (productivity) wealth and actually retards it, while concentrating power among the fraudulent stake holders or controllers.
    Even if they were angels, central planners are no substitute of the perceived value of the subconscious and the near infinite variability of a free market. The currency should be inert, a store value, a reliable unit of accounting and not causing obsessing in itself in planning for commerce. Can you image an engineer trying to plan and build something if the unit of measurement was constantly changing?
    Her argument was full of “double speak” and gaps in logic…

    Again enjoy :^)

    May 28, 2011 28:27 AM

    Al,
    Sorry, but Ellen’s statements were so insane, I could not finish listening to segment two. I did enjoy the rest of your show.

      May 31, 2011 31:05 AM

      Morning Karen, Craig and Matthew,

      Did you happen to listen to my Daily Editorial yesterday?

      I really do believe that we need to listen to all sides of a story.

      Best,

      Big Al

    May 28, 2011 28:31 AM

    I’ve heard Ellen Brown enough times to know she’s a nut.

    May 28, 2011 28:37 PM

    The legacy of depleted uranium destruction continues from Iraq to Afghanistan and now on to Libya.

      May 31, 2011 31:07 AM

      Morning Dubious,

      Please explain to me what depleted uranium destruction has to do with Libya accepting forms of payment in currencies, etc. other that U.S. dollars.

      I must have missed something.

      Appreciate your comment,

      Big Al

    May 28, 2011 28:53 PM

    Re. Segment 1:
    I am sure Ms. Brown is a great attorney, but as a Keynesian sophist her economic theory is wrong. How many times does Keynes’ theory have to be proven wrong?
    It did not work for the Weimar republic, Brazil or Argentina or any other country.
    She totally misses inflationary effects and the squeezing out of capital for industrial needs. (Not to mention he utter inefficiency of governments, with the possible exception of China.) Sure money printing (or government debt) works for a while because of the time lags between printing and inflation, but every time it has been tried it failed. And the longer it is continued the deeper and longer the depressionary post-printing recession is. The big error in Ms Brown’s reasoning is that you CANNOT increase the money supply much faster than the increase of the value of grown and manufactured goods without producing economic problems.
    At the rate QE1, QE2, QE(next) is going, it will be post-world-monetary collapse, post World War III before the US starts to get back on its feet. She needs to study some Austrian economic theory. As for Japan! Their stockmarket is still only one-third of what it was 20 years ago. Some growth!
    Attorneys both Brown and Obama, brilliant at arguing 2+2=5, or 3, or anything else, but about debt, they are not right. Just my opinion, of course, which is worth at least what you paid for it.

      May 29, 2011 29:00 PM

      Japan is not aiming for growth. They are aiming for sustainability and quality of life, and it was working very well until the recent tsunami. They turned down the IMF’s offer of help; they said they could fund the recovery themselves. See here —
      http://www.paecon.net/PAEReview/issue23/Locke23.htm

    May 28, 2011 28:16 PM

    Re. Segment 2:
    I was in Europe at the time of France and Italy deciding to attack Qaddafi.
    Ms. Brown is a nut, who reads too much internet conspiracy theory.
    The reason the Libyan offensive started was that Italy and France by way of Italy were being swamped by refugees. The US and UK and other EU countries got involved was because they were asked to help by France and Italy.
    As for depleted uranium causing infertility of farm land! What utter crap!
    1. Can you explain why Kuwait and nearby Iraq are not having any field infertility?
    By what physical mechanism are you proposing this infertility? Depleted uranium is neither water soluble nor radioactive, so how is it gong to kill plant fertility?
    And given the size Libya and the amount of armament being used, how is the depleted uranium even going to be spread around with enough presence to affect anything?

      May 29, 2011 29:06 PM

      I just did a quick google search and found this, among many other sources — http://www.newswithviews.com/Howenstine/james29.htm:

      “The depleted uranium DU was also recommended as a permanent terrain contaminant which could be used to destroy populations by contaminating water supplies and agricultural land with radioactive dust. Current estimates suggest that the damaged soil in Iraq, Yugoslavia and Afghanistan will need four and a half billion years to recover from the radioactive effect of DU.”

        May 29, 2011 29:25 PM

        I read the article you quoted. I don’t believe it.
        Here is why. Depleted uranium is what is left when U235 is removed. i.e. It is U238 plus impurities. It is essentially not radioactive. U238 has a decay rate less than 10 to the power -17 per second. Thus even if dp shells create dust, how could anyone describe this as radioactive anymore than handful of desert sand could be described as radioactive dust? If you are claiming that anything physically done to uranium238 such as melting it or hitting hit can make it radioactive, Then I want a piece of that action, you could make a fortune! You do realize that uranium (non-depleted) is mined by human beings without the harmful side effects described in your article.
        Please be careful not to accept things on the internet as all being total truth.
        I do not doubt there were gulf war syndrome problems, but guestimate how many millions of barrels of oil was burnt with many chemicals therein and eliminate that as a source first.
        After this is eliminated as a cause, which I don’t believe it can, then before anything else is reported as a cause a mechanism has to be given for something else. Mysterious eminations from nasty evil uranium are as invalid as a witch’s spell as a cause, until a physical mechanism is also given. If someone wants to say uranium attacks DNA, then tell me which base, or base-pair during replication, is affected and how. I want science, nothing less.

    May 28, 2011 28:40 PM

    l. it is very obvious that Ellen Brown has a socialist point of view. Here beliefs down’t hold water and due not excuse uncontolled printing of currency. She does not offer a reasonable alternative view to people who hold precious metals as a back up to fiat currencies.

      May 29, 2011 29:02 PM

      I hold precious metals because they are a very good investment. You don’t need to use them for a currency.

        May 09, 2012 09:24 AM

        I am sure they will only enrich it 10 or 15% right. Do you mean to tell me you don’t trust Iran. The sad part is that the will get it to about 40 or 50% and go with that. One dirty bomb can ruin your whole day. I pray for Jacob’s pelpoe.I pray for us all.

    May 28, 2011 28:35 PM

    A simple search of ‘depleted uranium’ used in U.S. armaments could provide readers with information that is valuable to the discussion.
    Depleted uranium Libya
    Depleted uranium Iraq
    Depleted uranium Afghanistan
    Nato using depleted uranium

    The US dropped thousands of depleted uranium bombs upon Fallujah, Iraq in 2003, and the aftermath since has been catastrophic. A quarter of all births since the strike have suffered from abnormalities ranging from cancer to leukemia, and the rate of mutation among newborns is higher than what was found after America attacked Japan during the Second World War.

    Hallinan says the US military investigated the effects of uranium warfare as early as 1991 and realized then the consequences. Hallinan reveals that tanks that were impacted by uranium ammunition were buried in radioactive dumps and that those involved in site clean-ups were advised to wear bio-hazard suits and dispose of all of their clothing.

    “The army knew that the stuff was dangerous. What they didn’t do was they didn’t tell anybody that it was dangerous, and that’s still the situation today,” says Hallinan.

    Dr. Doug Rokke, the ex-director of the Pentagon’s Depleted Uranium Project, says that there is no way to totally decontaminate an area hit with uranium, an element that has a half-life of 4.5 billion years and has thus earned the title “the silent killer that will never stop killing.” Rokke today says he was told by the government to lie about the effects of uranium and that most of the crew he worked with is now dead.
    NATO using depleted uranium in Libya
    http://rt.com/usa/news/nato-depleted-uranium-libya/

      May 28, 2011 28:40 PM

      Tell ya what Dubious. Shout it from the roof tops. The people of the world have no idea how were pooping in our own mess kit. keep up the good work.
      ivan

    May 28, 2011 28:48 PM

    Most of the problems in Iaq were due due to burning of oil, not depleted uranium.
    As for radioactivity, why don’t you both to compute the radiation given off by a ton of uranium, with its very long half-life and compare it with background radiation?
    And then try to explain how this small amount of radiation from uranium is so special as to possibly cause problems?
    What ever happened to physics education in this country?

    May 28, 2011 28:50 PM

    Iaq should be Iraq and both should be bother.
    Apologies …. Why can’t I proof-read?

      May 31, 2011 31:11 AM

      Same reason as I oftentimes can’t!

      Big Al

    May 28, 2011 28:35 PM

    The US government I think will continue to raise the debt ceiling. So many US citizens need this income just to survive. I’m glad I don’t. I have a small construction business around St.Paul, Minn, and we are busy. I just go to work, for 40 years, pay my bills, and buy bullion. Enjoy your Reports, Big Al and Trader Rog, and everyones comments. Thanks

      May 31, 2011 31:12 AM

      Hi Paul S

      Me too man.

      Big Al

    May 28, 2011 28:38 PM

    Hi Al. Great programing for 3/4 of your show. but the first 2 segments made my breakfast burrito go to the toilet. Mrs Brown should be hillary clinton’s sister, I am sure glad, she is not my mother. ! When i was in economics, the maynard kaynes sociology, or what they call kenesian theory, is total socialism. In the first part of the program she talked about debt to grow the economy, in the second part she talked about the debt trap? HUMMM makes me think were right there in the debt trap. A great book to read is the “confessions of an economic hit man” don’t remember the author. I do belive that our so called high education schools have failed or have been taken over by the commies! Ellen Brown is a brain fart! Thats just my opinion

    Just another thought! Who invented credit? And what would the world be like if there was NO credit? Also what does the bible say about debt, Love of money? and whats to happen in the end times about bankers? hummm have to go and read some more.

    I will support Ron Paul and lets get the fed audited. Lots to talk about but dad gummit.

    happy day
    fat ivan

      May 31, 2011 31:16 AM

      Hi Ivan,

      The author is John Perkins. I read the book and talked with him on the air.

      I have a bit of a problem with him. He made a ton of money knowing what he was doing; started some kind of “green” business; and, then wrote this book supporting his “green” business. Sounds kind of fishy to me.

      I completely agree with your comments about debt. Could not have said it better myself.

      Best,

      Big Al

    May 28, 2011 28:18 PM

    Roger, I will keep this simple. If you have Ellen Brown on you show again, I will actively boycott you and your show. This country is beyond Keynesian rhetoric, BUT if you are going to put one on a Keynesian, at least put one on that can answer a simple question: “why not just print more money?”. Again. I’m VERY disappointed! I don’t think I will listen to your show next week…there are plenty of other outlets to get both sides!

      May 31, 2011 31:22 AM

      Hi Michael,

      Sorry you feel that way, but it is what it is.

      Again, I believe in free speech.

      Ellen’s interview brought a lot of comments. Some valuable points were make, in my opinion. Got a lot of listeners to stop and think about a very important issue.

      I happen to be a died in the wool Austrian, but what the hell, open discussion is valuable.

      One example, I do not agree with much of what Jon Nadler says, but does that keep me from utilizing Kitco as one of my go to sites? No

      Your comments are valuable and I will be sorry to loose you as a listener.

      Best,

      Big Al

    Ron
    May 28, 2011 28:12 PM

    Ellen Brown is correct that the Fed prints up the currency to pay the bills of the government. That is the same system that Zimbabwe had, a fiat currency backed by nothing. Ms. Brown, do you realize that printing money doesn’t create wealth? That government printing its currency is nothing short of stealing from its citizens? If it is OK for the government to simply print money, then why didn’t Zimbabwe remain a wealthy nation? We have so many examples from history that shows that fiat currency becomes abused and that the system collapses. Law with the French, Wiemar Germany, Argentina, Chile under Allende, Zimbabwe. Wake up and smell the coffee, Ms. Brown. We need a gold standard or perhaps a gold and silver (bimetal) standard.

      May 29, 2011 29:12 PM

      Printing money does create wealth, in this sense: businesses must pay their workers and materials before they have a product to sell. They need the money FIRST. You could, theoretically, actually drop money from helicopters and create wealth, because the people who collected the money would spend it at shops, which would put in more orders for shoes etc., causing more shoes etc. to be made. The process starts with MONEY, and when the money supply has shrunk, as it has since the credit crisis, more needs to be added to keep the wheels of productivity turning. I agree that the Fed’s way of adding money — giving it to banks to LEND to the people — doesn’t work. But allowing the government to spend more on workers and materials DOES create “wealth,” because the workers create wealth out of the materials. They won’t work, however, and they can’t get the materials, unless they get PAID. The money must come first.

        May 29, 2011 29:20 PM

        What?! Printing money transfers VALUE (WEALTH!) from the rightful owners of honestly obtained capital to those who receive it! Cutting a pie into 4 pieces or 100 does not create more pie.

        The ends (stability), even if possible, do not justify the means (theft, control).

        May 29, 2011 29:24 PM

        It is not unreasonable to insist that money is real. A fair, free-market numeraire MUST be outside the absolute control of others, or commerce WILL grind to a halt eventually.

    May 29, 2011 29:31 AM

    For some reason in this period of time it appears necessary, I assume because of political correctness, to present opposing views on a subject. May I point out, however, that when one has two opposing views, only ONE of those two opposing views can be correct. The point of studying history is to be able to learn from experience to discern which of two opposing views is correct. Given that the last century has repeatedly shown Keynesian theory to be wrong when carried out to excess, and never has there been one example in any country, at any time, where excessive printing of money and deficit spending produced anything other than inflation and wealth destruction for the majority of a population, why do people still not understand?

      May 29, 2011 29:17 PM

      You’ve set up a straw man. Of course “excessive” printing of money is going to produce inflation. That’s true by definition. But when there is insufficient money in the system, adding it is good and necessary. How else are you going to get the money unless you print it? (Or create it by computer entries, etc.) It has to start somewhere. You can dream about changing all the paper money into gold, but right now the world is on a system of unbacked fiat currencies; and when there is too little currency for the needs of trade, more needs to be added to the productive economy.

        May 29, 2011 29:37 PM

        There is never “insufficient” money in the system. The honest way to get more into circulation is to allow the market work. Private savings will come to the market when the market-value of those savings is appropriate. Yes, this is deflationary, but contrary to propaganda, deflation is not a bad thing. It promotes savings and checks speculation. What you advocate is the forced dis-hoarding of savings.

        May 29, 2011 29:58 PM

        (2009) GDP 14.12 Trillion. (Bureau of economic assesment)
        Current Debt: 14.33 Trillion.
        185 entitlement programs costing almost 2 Trillion
        Budget 3.7 Trillion.
        Given that the US has never managed to tax its citizens more than around 25% ever, I don’t see how increasing government spending can work other than to get into a downward spiral wherein interest on the debt must ultimately destroy the dollar.

        Neither do I believe that M1 or M3 are insufficient for growth.
        I do see where hundreds of billions of dollars have been wasted on union paybacks with TARP. How many shovel-ready projects were actually funded? I do see where the HARM program was supposed to give bankers a chance to adjust their reserves, but, in fact, we have as many housing foreclosures as ever and the bankers essentially used the money to give themselves bonuses.
        I just don’t see a lack of money impeding economic growth. I do see mis-spending corruption and incompetence.

        May 29, 2011 29:19 PM

        I don’t give a darn whether we have gold-backed currency or not. I do care intensely when I see government spending being used to buy votes.
        I do care intensely about government corruption, and the slow destruction of this once-great country by stupid politicians who care much more about being re-elected than in doing what is best for the country. I do care about politicians not caring to plan ahead for the future of the country.

          May 29, 2011 29:46 PM

          All those things you care about, except for the last one, are remedied by gold money. I differ with Ron Paul here. We don’t need a gold standard because this still gives control to the government. And little receipts for that gold, which we call currency, opens the door to more corruption. Something like what James Turk has set up would be a better solution, provide there are sufficient, multiple and redundant, third party audits.

          Regarding your last concern, I do not believe that politicians should play a significant role with respect to any planning. They have proven incapable, over and over again.

            May 30, 2011 30:37 AM

            I don’t believe you have thought through your comment. If not politicians, then who plans, for new defences, future trade restrictions and inducements, future roads, railways, etc. For general running of the country.
            And I do not see how gold money stops corruption and general government mis-spending.

            May 30, 2011 30:55 AM

            Note that I said they should not play a SIGNIFICANT role. This is what the founders intended, and for a time, how it was. Administration of laws and foreign policy IS part of their job. Infrastructure such as roads and railways, should be handled by the markets. If something is worth doing, it will get done, and someone will be fairly compensated. Because private enterprise is competitive and good work is rewarded, the work to be done would be carried out far more efficiently, and would be of superior quality.

            If ONLY gold were accepted for final payment, most corruption related to spending would be severely limited. Politicians can’t spend what do not have, and cannot print. They would finally have to pay the market price (interest rate) to savers for the use of their capital. In a free market, the right interest rate is the one you see, since capital is subject to supply and demand just like anything else. When the Fed sets rates arbitrarily, someone gets plundered. The low rates we see today should be a reflection of a society with plenty of savings. But because rates are artificial, they reflect nothing. In fact, the high personal debt and lack of savings in the system is due to years of artificially low rates. Now that low rates have caused this catastrophic imbalance, guess what the market needs in order to avoid collapse? That’s right, continued artificially low rates. It’s a vicious cycle in which the biggest victims are those with savings. Without a free market in money, the market price of anything is unknown because the market price of money is unknown. The market never clears, and is perpetually propped up. It is unnatural that savers are now the slaves of debtors. To be clear, savers have been completely disenfranchised. If they refuse to make an uneconomic loan, the Fed will do it for them.
            Sound money is required for a free market in the price of money, and therefore, anything.
            When interest rates reflect available capital in the system, even those who are ignorant of the significance are protected (usually from themselves). For instance, if interest rates are low, due to abundant capital, the small business owner really should consider expanding his business. Not only are the terms appealing, but far more importantly, people have savings that his business can compete for. Now look at what we have seen over the last ten years. Record high indebtedness, record low savings, record low savings rate, AND record low interest. So the average business owner, small and even large, expands his business because of the terms, when he should have been SHRINKING his business because of the record low savings available to the consumer. Few realized that they were betting on a ponzi scheme of epic proportions. They were betting on the endless availability of cheap credit.

            The markets are always self-correcting. It is due to meddling that these adjustments are not more fluid and gradual. The ability to pile so much debt on top of debt, is unnatural. It takes fiat money and a central bank (central power) to accomplish. The planners have succeeded in separating generations of Americans from reality.

            Here again is Alan Greenspan’s famous quote from 1966 (he spoke some truth back then): “In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect
            savings from confiscation through inflation. … This is the shabby
            secret of the welfare statists’ tirades against gold. Deficit spending
            is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the
            way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property
            rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the
            statists’ antagonism toward the gold standard.”

            May 31, 2011 31:58 PM

            About your property tax increases, that is criminal. For decades people said “don’t bitch, they just go up with the value.” Well, I remember warning a neighbor back in ’06 that when things come apart, and values start to fall, the tax assessor will not recognize it and property taxes would not only not fall, but would actually rise. He thought I was wrong because people would be so angry. The following spring, our taxes went up 50%. My neighbor was half right, people were angry! With gold around $650 at the time, I sold the house and bought more.

            The fact that the “balanced budget” mandate you mentioned was useless, is exactly why gold should be used as money. The relentless expansion of government could not have occurred if it had to be financed by gold. Interest rates remain key. When you consider that the justification for more spending is a rising tax base, you can see that a low interest rate is desirable to politicians. Since the tax base is measured in dollars, the more of them they can pump into the system, the better. There is no regard for the value of the taxes collected, only the nominal amount. To most, the two are the same anyway. For the most part, the people don’t recognize the sleight of hand that has transpired. Everyone was happy to finance the huge increase in the size of government for two main reasons. One, people thought they were far more prosperous
            than they really were; and two, people dramatically underestimated the costs to themselves because they do not understand what causes or consequences of inflation. Many believe that the bulk of their burden is settled on April 15th.

            Since sound money is far more stable, gains to the tax base would be much harder won. There would have to be REAL gains to GDP and this means REAL net economic prosperity. For example, I have a relative who paid $25,000 for her house 50 years ago. Today, it’s worth no more than $400,000. To the tax collector, it has risen 16 fold. But this is a “fiat” illusion. In terms of gold, this house was 714 oz 50 years ago. Today, it would be 260 oz. What would the tax man do with this decline? This example holds up across all assets. The dow hit a high of 381 in 1929, or 19 oz of gold. Today, that would be 29,000 for the dow.

            With gold performing so well over time, it’s easy to see how the urge to save would materialize in all of us. Household debt would not be what it is today. In fact, it COULD NOT be what it is today because no sane person/entity/country would loan such a quality asset to unqualified borrowers on such easy terms.

            Now, after yet another long-winded response (sorry), I have to agree that none of this amounts to a solution to the huge problems today. In fact, I don’t know that there is a solution that will make very many people happy. I do know that without the stability necessary for confidence, the economy will continue to contract. Capital will continue to seek shelter and new job creation will be delayed. Major hardship will hit a whole new segment of society.

          May 31, 2011 31:28 AM

          David,

          You have definitely hit Big Al’s hot button!

          Nothing pisses me off more than corruption; creating disincentive programs, buying votes, etc.

          Big Al

            May 31, 2011 31:59 AM

            Thank you Matthew. I better understand your position and if gold backing equalled spending limtations then I would agree parly with you.
            One of the cities and one of the states I live in has a “balanced budget” mandate built into their constitutions. This has been useless to control spending.
            e.g. My property taxes increased 27% this year, despite increases in sales tax last year. Property tax on my house there has increased from 2 x $143.20 when I bought the house to over $10,400 now, plus paying for trash collection and sewerage which were included originally in property tax. And public pensions are still substantially under-funded. I just don’t believe gold-backing would actually do much to changr things, and might introduce such an intense depression that blood would flow in the streets.

    May 29, 2011 29:03 PM

    Here is another comment from a listener who sent it to me via e-mail.

    Dear Al, I very much appreciate your internet program. I too have been systematically investing in precious metals. Recently, I have become convinced we as a nation are are being driven toward a cashless society. When this occurs, what do you believe will be the role (if any)of personally held metals? I would also be interested in Roger’s opinion.
    Best Regards, Bill Jordan

    May 29, 2011 29:04 PM

    And yet another comment from a listener:

    Al,
    Wow, Ellen Brown certainly presented an interesting view! She may as well have said, “We don’t need no stinking gold standard!”
    She seems to think that the Fed can create new money into infinity without any inflation worries. It’s interesting that she gets most of her knowledge “off the internet”. I guess she skipped the info on Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe. When the inflation rate is raging here in a year or so, why don’t you plan to have her on again and see if she can offer a solution.
    Keep up the good work.
    Dr. Ron Jones
    Nevada, Mo.

    May 29, 2011 29:07 PM

    Wait, here’s another:

    Al,
    Regarding your interview with Brien Lundin on the weekend show — I agree with him about the summer lows. Every year I hear people say that this year may be different; that somehow the fundamentals for silver and gold will negate the usual pattern… but every year these assets go down in price, and the miners with them.

    The good news is that the drop presents a great buying opportunity. I wrote an essay on it for Seeking Alpha, analyzing silver & gold stocks over 3 years across explorers, juniors, and seniors. Over the three years, selling in May and buying back in August netted a 13% advantage over holding through the summer. See: http://seekingalpha.com/user/925476/instablog

    Meanwhile, thanks for your great show, and for turning me onto Ellen Brown — I will check out her articles and book.
    Dirk

    May 29, 2011 29:09 PM

    Last one for now.

    Al,

    I’ve read some of Ellen Brown’s work and I have been impressed. She clearly has remarkable expertise and insights in many areas. Unfortunately, in this case, I was shocked by her naivety.
    • Ms. Brown’s thesis that the fiscal problems of the United States can be solved simply by having the government borrow at 0% because money is nothing but a balance sheet entry is vacuous. The government doesn’t control interest rates and interest payments are derived from taxes, i.e., paid by the people to private investors that hold U.S. Treasuries, e.g., financial institutions, Wall Street firms, such as Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, foreign investors, etc.
    • Treasury yields are based on the competition among bidders in Treasury auctions. Mathematically, as federal government debt levels rise relative to GDP tax revenue at some point becomes insufficient to meet interest payments, which is the formula for a sovereign debt crisis Raising taxes generally has a negative impact on GDP.
    I will not comment here on the profound negative consequences of inflation, the disruptive effects on international capital flows and trade, and the destructive effects of negative real interest rates associated with a 0% interest rate set by the Federal Reserve. I will say, however, that we are seeing some of the results already in the form of high inflation in emerging economies, rapidly rising global commodity prices, etc.
    • For Ms. Brown’s ideas to work, U.S. government debt would have to be monetized by the Federal Reserve because that’s the only way to achieve a 0%, or near 0%, interest rates. No other bidder will accept 0% when the real return is negative due to inflation.
    • Of course, the interest rates in question are actually Treasury yields, not bank lending rates. As debt levels increase relative to GDP, government debt becomes more risky and the only way to attract capital to to offer higher yields.
    • Infinite debt is impossible in a finite word. Even if foreigners, e.g., China, would continue to loan money to the U.S., the amounts needed would become problematic, e.g., when the U.S. needs to roll over $5 trillion or $10 trillion in one year. For that to be possible, foreigners would have to greatly increase their money supplies, which would cause sever inflation in those economies, or the U.S. dollar would have to become much less valuable, which would affect the balance of trade, negatively impacting the very same export-dependent economies that U.S. needs to borrow from. In reality, it’s just not workable. The U.S. cannot continue borrowing while rolling over an ever larger debt.
    • Every historical example of strategies similar to that suggested by Ms. Brown has resulted in hyperinflation and the utter destruction of the currency involved. Ms. Brown failed to explain to why “this time is different.”
    I would add that the Federal Reserve is a private corporation established primarily to support the banking industry and that it is not a part of the government nor is it controlled by the government. In fact, the owners of the Federal Reserve are not known to the U.S. government or to the American people. The recent disclosure of the Federal Reserve’s emergency loans during the financial crisis may indicate some of the foreign interests that own the Federal Reserve. Obviously, it benefits financial firms for the government to borrow because debt service (interest payments) literally transfer money from U.S. taxpayers to investors in U.S. Treasuries, including big banks and foreign investors. I fail to grasp the benefit of this arrangement that Ms. Brown seems to think exists. In fact, I would imagine that abolishing the Federal Reserve would be a step in the right direction.

    My suggestion to Ms. Brown would to refrain from further commentary on monetary systems because she lacks sufficient understanding of them.

    Ron

    May 29, 2011 29:25 PM

    Au contraire, what I’m proposing has worked very well, for example, in Japan. Bear in mind that the immediate issue is whether to raise the debt ceiling: it’s an immediate crisis we’re facing in the next 3 months. The options are to not raise it and risk precipitating a global depression like in the 1930s when the UK defaulted on the global reserve currency, or to raise it and add to the debt. There is plenty of room to add to the debt. We’re only at half the debt to GDP ratio that we had in World War II (counting just publicly-held debt), and we’re only at about one-quarter the debt to GDP ratio of Japan, which hasn’t gone into hyperinflation but rather is still in a deflationary spiral. Here’s a quote from economist Robert Kuttner on that — http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-kuttner/a-double-dip-recession-fo_b_853051.html:

    But wait, isn’t the deficit a real problem? Yes, and no. Eventually, deficits at the 2011 level are not sustainable. However, the current accumulated debt held by the public of about 60 percent of GDP is not dire.

    We could have two or three years of bigger deficits, very major public investment, let the debt ratio peak at 100% of GDP; and then stronger recovery, lower unemployment, and higher taxes on the wealthy would bring the debt ratio slowly down, as occurred after WW II.

    Japan’s debt ratio, for comparative purposes, is over 200 % of GDP — and Japan is increasing government outlay to repair the damage of the earthquake and tsunami. Britain’s, after World War II, was over 250 percent, and Britain went on to enjoy a postwar recovery.

    Why can’t we have massive public reparation with war or natural disaster? Because politicians lack the vision and nerve.

    Austerity will only slow down the recovery. The idea that a steeper path to deficit reduction will somehow restore business confidence and thus more than offset the hit to purchasing power is just blarney. And with both parties committed to some version of austerity, we could easily have the worst of both worlds — increasing inflation coupled with persistent stagnation.

      May 29, 2011 29:49 PM

      You are offering short-term solutions to prop-up an unsustainable system that is as perpetually out of balance as it is unfair.

      We will get “the worst of both worlds” regardless. A large segment of the population already is.

      May 29, 2011 29:35 PM

      Ms. Brown, Please look at a graph of the Nikkei index over the last 20 years and then explain again how well printing money has worked for Japan. i.e. Do you really believe Japan is richer now than it was 20 years ago?

      May 29, 2011 29:28 PM

      GDP 2009 $14,12 trillion
      Current debt $14.33 = 69% of GDP
      Interesting math!

      May 29, 2011 29:47 PM

      GDP 2009 $14,12 trillion
      Current debt $14.401 trillion = 69% of GDP
      Interesting math!

    May 29, 2011 29:50 PM

    But Ellen, about Japan’s debt ratio, you say in one of your own articles: “…Japan’s debt is twice its GDP only because of an anomaly in how GDP is calculated: it omits government-provided services. If they were included, Japan’s GDP would be much higher and its debt to GDP ratio would be more in line with other countries…”

    I personally appreciate your perspective and points of view as a counter to the inflationist views we hear so much in silver & gold communtiy… nothing yet guarantees that we will see inflation, as opposed to deflation, and it does seem that most banks have held onto gov’t bailout monies rather than loan it. But if that is the case (and M3 is as low as indicated in one of the articles on your site), what accounts for the commodity inflation — oil, silver, copper, grains — we have seen this past year?

      May 29, 2011 29:05 PM

      With respect to necessities and things that are purchased without credit, we have seen the rate of inflation steepen from its already rising 100 year trend line. I believe it will steepen dramatically from here. Meanwhile, very serious deflation continues in real terms.

    May 29, 2011 29:30 PM

    A number of comments above included the idea that Keynsianism has been disproven. That’s debatable. According to Cambridge professor Ha Joon Chang, author of Bad Samaritans, world-wide both developed and undeveloped countries grew more, had better income distribution, and better stability in the 50’s through 70’s (until interrupted by the oil shock) on Keynsian and more mixed economy models than they did from the 80’s on with the present dominant neoliberal policies of balanced budgets, low inflation, privatization, etc. The statistics paint a clear picture. And countries that have done extremely well, like S. Korea, China, India, Taiwan, Japan, have done it with high protectionism, currency controls, a strong state owned enterprise sector, public banking, a planned industrial policy, etc. Those are facts. Ellen Brown’s articles are full of well-documented facts to back up her views. She knows her stuff. Read them and see.

      May 29, 2011 29:10 PM

      The only problem is that it was all driven by debt and/or money printing. In other words, wealth transfers. Debt transfers wealth (therefore prosperity) from the future to the present, while printing transfers wealth (therefore prosperity) from one group to another, poor to rich; west to east; first world to third world.

      Ellen’s understanding is shallow. What she has documented is misunderstood by her. It is unhealthy, unsustainable, and unethical. It does not prove what she thinks it does.

      Just ponder these quotes from Keynes himself:

      “The best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.” — John Maynard Keynes

      “I work for a government I dispise for ends I think criminal.” — John Maynard Keynes

      May 29, 2011 29:30 PM

      You seem to confuse central command and control as equal to Keynesianism.
      India and Japan might be closer to Keynes, but I would hardly describe China or Taiwan such. Closer examples might be Sweden and Greece, Venezuela, Brazil prior to 2000. Maybe France , Maybe UK under labour George Brown).

    May 29, 2011 29:02 PM

    If all fiat currencies print like mad, to support a life style for its citizens in their respective countries, this is happening now, won’t be stopped. So commodities will rise like gold and silver. My favorities. It’s a no brainer. Thanks

    May 29, 2011 29:58 PM

    Why should private citizens be taxed for inflation they did not create to pay for it by spendthrift governments? The inflation itself will already lower our standard of living and lower the purchasing power of our money and then governments get to tax us on top of it? One more point to ponder. Anyone quoting statistics from FDR’s government should realize that most of those were lies. FDR’s own Secretary of the Treasury admitted no jobs were created net net and yet the deficit doubled. There may be a few times where government statistics were somewhat accurate and more honest, but in many governments in past US history, and also in foreign governments including Japan, the economic statistics are all bogus or incredibly spun to present a case and a message to however the government wants the statistics.

    May 30, 2011 30:02 AM

    Japan has (arguably asset price) deflation (non Austrian School definition of deflation) but those assets were overvalued and bubbles were created. How about Japan’s savings rate? The Japanese government stole the savings of the Japanese population the last 2 decades as the Japanese citizens sacrificed their savings the last 2 decades to allow this spending binge. Now Japanese have very low savings rates and what’s worse many middle aged Japanese have had no investment income for 2 decades now so they cannot retire. The cost of living in Japan is very high. If you want to read the counter to Ellen Brown and other deflationists’ arguments about the US turning into the next Japan, read Dan Amerman’s articles on Japan and the Santa Claus Theory of Deflation.

    May 31, 2011 31:06 AM

    To any of you who got mad at me for having Ellen as a guest on last weekend’s show, I submit that, right or wrong, her comments got everyone thinking and voicing their thoughts. That, in my opinion, is both valuable and constructive.

    I thank all of you for contributing. You are all very bright and well-thought individuals and, as I have said numerous times in the past, I consider it a true honor to have participants such as yourselves.

    Best,

    Big Al

    May 31, 2011 31:28 PM

    Did I hear Ellen Brown right? Did she really say that the US has killed more innocent civilians the past 10 years than anyone else in history? I think some of her comments may be relevant but this one is so outrageous as to make her an absolute nut. Unless I have my stats wrong, Hitler’s War, a.k.a. WW II, killed at least 12 million innocent people through ethnic cleansing, and let us not forget all those killed in bombings. Chairman Mao, it is said, is responsible for the deaths of approximately 100 million of his own people. Then of course there is Uncle Joe Stalin, who may have murdered up to 50 million of his own people. Others in this distinguished list which have deliberately slaughtered millions are Pol Pot, leader of the Khmer Rouge, Saddam Hussein, Fidel Castro, and all those who throughout history that wiped out entire cities and cultures. Unfortunately Ellen Brown may have had some good information but that comment alone disqualifies her as anything but a lunatic.

    PS. Her statements regarding the reasons why we attacked Lybia probably have some merit. It would not surprise me in the least.