Not much to say other than maybe be have a buying opportunity!
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Morning Dai Uy,
I would hope so since that is what I, anyway, truly believe.
I still think that opportunities continue to exist in the junior sectors for me, at least.
Time will certainly tell.
Best,
Big Al
This is a very prescient take on the recent drops in the price of gold from Julian Phillips.
HI Peter,
Thanks for bringing this to my attention. I did download, print and read it.
Best,
Big Al
Hi Big Al and Trader Rog,
Yes, I think this week will be not very exciting for the PMs. Everybody is holding his breath before Christmas.
Two things to consider.
First $Silver touched on wednesday 15 the 28.09. It was a test (under the lowest Londonfixing from 26-09: $28.16) and it means that the correction (for both, Gold and Silver) is not accomplished yet.
Second there is two important deadlines in the pipeline:
23-12-2011 – deadline for both houses to vote on the committee bill
+ 15-01-2012 – $1.2 trillion of future spending cuts will go into effect, if the committee’s legislation has not been enacted.
I´m totally convinced the PMs best buying opportunity (bargain entry) will end after the 15th of January. After this date I see a big jump (recovery) especially in €Gold in the next two months.
Hi Anna,
You make a good point.
I think that the future of pm prices remains strong for the simple reason that the U.S. and other countries are a long way from solving their problems.
Simplistically speaking, I think that when the world sees that there is an end to this financial stupidity then the pm’s could come down in price. I am convinced that we are a long way away from that happening. The problem is simply too large.
The alternative to the fiat currency systems (gold backed) is still a better than average possibility and should that happen my guess is that gold and silver will then become two much less volatile investments and will be accepted stores of value. (Accepted by the majority as opposed to where that level is today.)
What do you think?
Big Al
Big Al, I agree with you. Precious metals have always be seen as wealth preservation and even, I would say, a wealth demonstration. It was never the contrary. Sometimes I think that not Gold could be confiscate in the future but Silver for helping to boost a new start in the economy after a global deflationary depresssion. Three years ago, I spoke with some work-related Singapore Chinese about in the long term picture and they told me the chinese economy will collapse by 2016. Their wealth preservation strategy was gold and only gold.
HI Anna,
That does seem to be just exactly what they are doing.
Big Al
Al and TR:
An afterthought.
Quite by chance, I spent 10 minutes with Eric Sprott one on one at the Spokane Silver Conference after his presentation and ran a theory of mine across him. He didn’t necessarily agree with me but then again, he purchased several billions of the physical several weeks ago when AG was around $33.50 which I’m sure long term will be a bargain.
My theory is simple………. That above ground physical is undervalued by a factor of 5-25% when compared to to future underground diggings given the ever incrasing difficulty of finding the stuff and ever increasing costs of extraction for 2012 and beyond not to mention war and talk of wars, potential worlwide economic meltdown, potential economic problems, even Nationalization threats in mining jurisdictions and a failure of the overall investment community to realize what is truly going on. As I understand it, 25% of total mining costs is for Energy so a decrease in the cost of the same would skewer my theory at least somewhat.
Any thoughts?
BTW: Jon Nadler has an interesting article this morning on the Kitco website
I highly recommand to ignore Mr. Nadler´s PMs prognosis.
When I see the name Nadler I skip over.
I have always been disappointed by his future market price estimation in the past. Now, he only deserves my disregard.
Anna:
I try to read everything including the bad and ugly as well as the good. I find Nadler reasonably objective as his employer, Kitco, makes money whether buying or selling.
As an aside, my oldest daughter returned from your lovely country about 5 months ago. She was training Dressauge Stallions for a stable that trained for several National/Olympic teams. Unfortunately, your Government wouldn’t extend her visa. Part of my family left the Schleswig Holstein area in 1851 for America because of the wars and starvation on the Continent at the time.
Hi Dai Uy!
I began to read Nadler´s articles for 7 years now. I´ve made my mind…
I have nothing to do with the decisions taken by the german authorities. I´m french, living in Germany since 32 years (lived in some US locations in the between times). I pay my taxes in Germany but will give my vote by the next French presidential election next year.
My father loosed his father wo was fighting against Franco, captured and tortured by Franco´s Morisco guarders in Toledo. My mother was living 6 Km from Omaha Beach. She survived the D-Day. This past events are still very fresh in our memory.
ANNA,,,,I agree with you on Nadler…
Hey JERRY “Out of the Box”, thanks for giving me a five!
Hi Anna, Jerry and Dai Uy,
Being of Russian heritage (50%) you can probably imagine many of the comments that I got when I was a kid in grade school. Let me tell you, children can be very cruel.
Anna, Dai Uy’s comment had absolutely nothing to do with you. Trust me on this one please. I met him in Spokane at the last Silver Summit and he is simply not that kind of person!
Regarding Jon, I also don’t read his material much anymore because I don’t find it to be all that interesting.
Jon is very bright and I know that he could do better.
Best,
Big Al
I too, choose to disregard Nadler. Obviously, a bright man, just wrong almost all the time. He’s a “schill” for the fiat system and obviously collects a paycheck by “stumping” for the other side.
I agree with castanheiro. Nadler is a shill. If I want to read an opinion that counters my own, there are honest people like Bob Prechter or Harry Dent to choose from.
Nadler is a waste of time. There are prettier bears in the nursery, as Al might say. Luckily, it didn’t take me seven years to catch him spreading false information, and it was a false rumor he could easily have fact-checked before his sad copy&paste job.
disambiguation: Second sentence refers to Nadler, not Al…
corrigendum:
last sentence, not second.
Oh, well….
Hi Gundhi,
I will never forget when gold was trading around $1K and Jon, Paul and other said I was absolutely crazy to be a gold bull. Well, okay. Now, let’s see, what has the price done since that time?
Just goes to show that no human being is correct all of the time.
Best,
Big Al
HI Dai Uy,
‘
I think that a lot of the participants in this forum would not agree with the 5% – 25% figure that you mentioned above.
From a strictly fundamental standpoint it could be accurate, but I would maintain that a lot of the value attributed to silver is based on psychology. (Just as the false value of the U.S. dollar is based on “confidence” which is certainly psychology!)
I will read Jon’s article. Thanks for the tip,
Big Al
Hi Big AL: Happy holidays to you and Trader Roj..
I have a gut-churn warning me that TPTBs have backed themselves into a untenable corner – really made a mess of the worlds economy – but they aren’t going down without a fight. It’s their (and their families) lifestyles (at the least) they stand to loose. It’s us or them… My gut sees them fleeing the country with their bootie or stay and suffer a most unpleasant reality after the SHEEPLE of America wake up and see what has become of the once beautiful USA. PMs will be beaten down until it H… breaks… then will be a currency of last resort… with shotguns and sandbags. what do you think?
oh, also, investing is great as long as computers are operating. Any thoughts on the scenario of breakdown to that extent???
Hi tricky rick,
I mean, heck man, anything can happen!
There is certainly a possibility that civil unrest could erupt, but I stand by my thoughts (at least as of today) that it will not. Sure, there will and have been some isolated circumstances, but I don’t think it will occur on the scale you are suggesting.
Now, I must stress we are in uncharted waters and anything can happen. I am certainly not discounting that possibility. Like I have said, I look out my front window and see Canada.
Let’s seriously hope and pray that common sense prevails.
Big Al
Merry Christmas to all you fine people and Best wishes for a prosperous New year.
Anna’s forecast about mid-january is correct. Bank funding stress has been pressuring PM’s lower. This is mostly over and with that pressure off and the Euro and US Dollar stabilized, gold and silver will move higher in Q-1. Chopper Ben is going to have to do QE-3 whether its on the sly or with a formal announcement. He is also going to cover (band aides) Europe’s troubles which might last until May. After spring I plan to short everything I can find but not precious metals, or grain. – Traderrog
Al:
In you, TR, Sprott, and God I trust but not necessarily in that order.
Everything I’m reading suggests that there will be better PM buying opportunities within the next 1- 6 months.
I’ve pretty much given up on picking explorers/JR miners but believe that the cash rich big boys such as GG and ABX will be in a better position to pick the ones that have the best potential. I like the Jan. 2014 call leaps in the above stocks and will accumulate more if AU and AG continues to slide which I believe it will short term.
Timing obviously is the key while I believe your and TR’s analysis is spot on.