Daily Insights – Tue 24 Jan, 2012
Al on BNN – says EU situation is worsening
Click here to watch Al on the Business News Network.
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Click here to watch Al on the Business News Network.
Johnny Ancich says:
Lookin’ sharp!
Say Al, what is the ‘B’ in A. B. Korelin?
Big Al says:
Hello Mr. Johnny A,
Basil
Big Al
Marc says:
OK, OK Big Al,
Now, I will have to wear a suit to the Indian Wells conference. Nicely done. BTW, did you notice the kinda blank look on the interviewer’s face when she asked: Where would you invest during these turbulent times? Good job, settin her straight!
Marc
crazy canuck says:
i couldn’t agree more with Al. But I have to point out BNN is an excellent source of info up here in the GWN and Kim parlee is a very well informed reporter…..albeit likely censored by the powers that be. keep it goin Al
Big Al says:
Many, many thanks Mr. Crazy!
Big Al
Big Al says:
Didn’t notice the blank look.
Did notice; however, that I need to continue on my diet!
Big Al
castanheiro says:
Hey Big Al,
Great job on the BTW interview. You didn’t allow her to bait you. You held your poise and you were bold in your statement that the conventional stock market is NOT where people want to be right now. I loved it!…. and, by the way, you look pretty cool in those retro-specs too.
Best
Big Al says:
As I said above,
Unfortunately, I need to stay on my diet!
Many thanks for the kind words.
Big Al
John W. Robertson says:
Nice tie! What a great weekend. Really enjoyed the conference, and meeting lot’s of Al’s compatriots. Thx Big Al.
Talk about the EU situation worsening…it’s almost happening in real time with Greece just as Al mentioned. I wonder if we’ll make it until the mid-March EU meeting?
Meanwhile, India wants to buy oil from Iran next year with gold, not US dollars. 330,000bpd x 365 days/year, divided by $100/USD par value per barrel, divided by $1,667/oz = 725,000 oz gold needed to fulfill that contract. Where is India going to get the gold from?
Japan also just has it’s first trade deficit in 30 years. This was we could see coming, and it is not Fukshima Daiichi that’s the problem. For years, Japan’s investments around the world have keep it’s national income positive (current account surplus), but for years, it’s own outsourcing has seen it’s trade shrink. A lot of people in Japan swore by government spending al a Keynes. We’re getting closer to seeing how that’s going to work out.
It’s not even at the end of January yet.
Big Al says:
HI John W,
Remember Marin’s comments Monday night?
Big Al
John W. Robertson says:
Absolutely…Marin Katusa…he broke the news on the India/Iran oil for gold deal. Nice guy. Didn’t know he was an east-Vancouver kid!
Jerry O^OTB says:
I agree with JOHN….”NICE TIE” (if you spill merlot on it , will not show)..
.GOOD JOB…., NO GREAT JOB….
Big Al says:
Mr. In the Box,
There is a definite method to my madness!
Big Al
butler investor says:
big al,
I have attached the writtings of steve downey from SC. He writes a daily tech forcast. I thought you might enjoy his comments about the State of Union speach.
Re: God’s Rule of Thumb
Inbox
x
Steve Dowdney stevedowdney@gmail.com
7:29 AM (1 hour ago)
to carlbdavis, elee1234, peregoff, sti106, Barbara, Bennett, Bill, Bill, Bob, Bob, Bruce, Carter, Charles, Christopher, Dann, Danny29115, Eric, Eric, Ernie, Fred, Ginna, Greg, Howard, J, Jan, Jay
I still am boiling from last night’s State of the Onion! It was another “we need to grow big Government bigger” to do…whatever-who cares! Bail, Train, Police, Punish, Tax! How close we are coming like the Bureaucracies of the Onion domed Evil Empire of the past. But my single opinion is as worthless as my vote cast in a pot of votes where 43% are on some kind of subsistence. But of this I know…things are changing. Maybe not complete for another decade but if there is to be a Union speech in Jan. 2022, it just might sound like a report from a much earlier time, a time when presidents captained light weight frigates instead of lumbering Panamax Cargo Carriers filled with Chinese junk.
In the mean time a first step was taken by China and India, the two emerging economic powers. They need oil and Iran has oil and Iran has a problem. Oil is traded in U.S dollars but with Iran’s sanctions bucks are worthless so the two economic super powers are going to buy oil with gold. It works! No diminishing currency value to favor trade, gold is of equal global value. What a country pays for gold is their problem. If they get their monetary house in order, its cheap, act like Greece, its near priceless.
Millions of Americans remain in eyeball high debt. They have unloaded the second car. Agreed to terms for lower credit card interest with a pay-off plan. And they continue to sell items-art-heirloom-valuable-just not quite necessary as compared to the alternative. This is the way of survival. The United States is no different than one of its people. It is eyeball in debt. And yet the plan is to get further????? I say START FRESH! Sell Hawaii for starters. Air power-Long range aircraft, drones, Cruise missiles and ICBM’s negate the need for a harbour. And, of course, as it will become as economics force it, change the Nation’s motto from “In God…” to “God helps those who Help Themselves.” After all this was the concept since the very beginning!
Yesterday was another worthless expense of stock watcher’s time. Volume was vacation light, the Dow barely wiggled, the RSI dropped to +3 and the RO to +20. Dow MACD lines might be getting ready to cross (a significant decline) while relative strength hit overbought levels and is backing. Both slow and fast stocastics remain in overbought territory. DowOBV did not mark the event. Graphs might be telling the story. Drawing a line from the May 2nd peak through the double July tops and onward to yesterday, the NASD, Dow and S&P are finding this a most difficult barrier to penetrate. Could be computer sell programs, could be old time tech analysis, could be fate. Whatever, it’s resistance and a near term issue. The markets might pull back and “second attempt-do it again” especially as we approach Superbowl 46. Gold got slammed as Euro investors fled to dollars. The buck was in need of a relief rally. It is now at the fifty day ma and bouncing while gold dipped under its 50 on the dollar s strength. Tricky! The dollar is in a bull market; gold is questionable. In summation, wait for the government to train you, bail you out ,pay your mortgage, excuse your debt, pay your college tuition OR begin to pare long positions, prepare for a next market move and get ready to help yourself-just like God intended.
Big Al says:
Thanks Mr. Butler Investor,
I just printed this out. (Big Al is a bit behind.)
By the way, I will be on Butler on Business this Friday a.m.
Best,
Big Al
Barry says:
This question is for Roger. The SPX:HUI and SPX:XAU have both recorded golden crosses on the charts and are close to breaking out to three year highs. How much longer do you expect the S&P500 to outperform the gold stocks? I was shocked to see that US markets have outperformed BRICs stock markets for three years as well as outperforming the MCSI over past three years and even the DJIA outperform the TSX over the past two years. Essentially I am asking, since US stocks have outperformed every asset over the past four years, besides physical gold and silver and oil, when do you and Al plan on getting bullish? I need a contrary indicator
roger wiegand says:
The S&P’s and Dow Futures are rigged. Please tell me when the rigging stops. Last week we reported five major trading signals that reporters should have said were nasty. Yet all five were twisted and reported as good signs. We are bullish now for 90 days with two normal corrections in the middle for PM shares and the broader markets. However, the leading indicator NAZZ 100 is getting peaky for the first normal correction signal. We like select stocks for the next 90 days. DO NOT STAY IN TOO LONG. THE SPRING HAIRCUT COULD BE IN LATER APRIL OR MAY ABOUT -15% OR -23%. THE 4TH QUARTER OF 2012 MAY BE A GLOBAL DISASTER. I AM EXPECTING MULTIPLE REPORTS OF VERY BAD NEWS THIS YEAR. HOWEVER, DO NOT DISPAIR. THIS CAN BE TRADED WITH CARE – Traderrog
Jed Davis says:
I agree with Al. Europe’s problems are worsening. In my opinion, what is so dangerous is that the problem is like a crash in slow-motion. It is slowly sneaking up on the world. This is the most dangerous because when it hits, no one except those with foresight will be prepared. And it WILL have a big effect on the US. World War II was our problem and some isolationists fought this. Same thing here.
Marc says:
Your last sentence was very, very true…..WW III is coming too…but it is dressed up as a “paper-mached” (sp?), digitized monster – called fiat, manipulated currencies!
Marc
Big Al says:
Thanks Jed,
Big Al
clay says:
Gideon Rachman a died in the wool Keynesian wrote article in Financial Times with 80% dreams of hope to bailout to success did have a weary thought “Well, I’m feeling a little bit Austrian today.”
LEAP 2020 had a very interesting future scenario where Protectionism between Countries ties the hand of some but is a sentence of death for others. UK and US are on life support, but the priest has just been called.
http://www.leap2020.eu/End-2012-Neo-protectionism-establishes-itself-as-the-new-paradigm-of-world-trade_a8859.html
John W. Robertson says:
Oh, funny opening sentence Clay. The problem is, once someone turns from Keynes to Austrian, the damage that was required to change their mind has already been done. What a way to learn to lesson…millions will suffer for years because certain politicians and reporters have to slowly work-out their mistaken beliefs in their heads, based on systems they had no skin in the first place. Thanks a lot!
Clay says:
John: Very good point. Damage has already been done before a Keynesian starts to realize what has been done.
John Williams Part 2 on McAlvany show is excellent today. I re-listened to Part 1 of last week again and then started Part 2. John and David are saying that this year both Democrats and Republicans might loose white house to a third party. I think that entirely possible depending on how fast the dollar begins to collapse.
http://mcalvanyweeklycommentary.com/
Big Al says:
HI Clay and John W,
Great comments! Thanks,
Big Al
Dai Uy says:
Al:
As always, an excellent program this morning. An interesting phenomena developing ….AU and Ag up nicely this morning as is the dollar as I write. 2 year call leaps in quality producers down yet 1 year out of the same leaps up nicely. Any thoughts?
Big Al says:
HI Dai Uy,
Yep, and we will share them in the morning.
Big Al
clay says:
Al: You one of a few in the Media which are truthful, all the the rest are too busy satisfying their swarm of Trotskyite parasites to give honesty a seconds thought.
If I had a wish for this New Year it would be, that all people who desire truths above lies begin thinking in terms of what real wealth is and not digits or dollars on a ledger. For those who would like to see gold as money, think in grams per currency and not the other way around. Of course that is hard to do but guess what?, that is precisely what the future holds. Probably not this year or maybe next, but your bank will in less than a decade.
Golds value is a measurement of Socialist achievements. Socialists can go to war both inside and outside their borders, extricate from the future steps of mankind while sadistically enjoying the dying nation, but progress will march on somewhere, someplace to continue the pursuit of liberty and happiness.
John W. Robertson says:
Clay, to add to your last paragraph, any failures along the way are then blamed by the Socialists on hold-outs who don’t agree with their ever-widening agendas.
Clay says:
John. Boy you got that right. Excellent addition and it is good to know there are still good people like you out there who know.
By the way I had a very good day today, besides gold and miners going up. While on my 5 mile daily walk today, which I do for exercise and thinking about this crazy world, I look at the ground for pennies, nickles, dimes and sometime more. But today I hit Gold, I found a 1/2 ounce sold 22 K Gold Thai Necklace with Green Jade figure of Buddha.
South Coast Oregon, and yes Brookings is a very nice place.
John W. Robertson says:
You know, I take long walks and that never happens to me! Incredible find. I found a $5 a few months ago. I think it’s worth about $4 today.
Was through Oregon twice on last road trip….sigh, always sad when leaving the state. You’re lucky to live there. PS Port Orford has a little coffee shop with the BEST mocha’s. Too bad it was out of the way.
Big Al says:
HI John W,
Oregon is a great place except for one aspect. Know what that is? Taxes and a lot of left wing thinking!
Apart from that Kathy and I absolutely love the state.
Big Al
John W. Robertson says:
“Taxes and a lot of left wing thinking!”
Yes. But it’s got Newport Beach. Tillamook! Izzy’s Pizza!!!
Big Al says:
Hi Clay,
Oh yeah, Brookings is a great place. Just hope that the southern Oregon coast does not get “discovered” more than it is!
Big Al