Daily Insights – Fri 27 Jan, 2012
Wow, talk about a continuation of the perfect storm for gold and silver!
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Wow, talk about a continuation of the perfect storm for gold and silver!
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Matthew says:
I agree with Roger’s 90 day outlook. I now own Otis Gold again for the first time since it was .70-.80 My average price is .20136 and just have to wonder who would sell at this level. (?!)
Marc says:
Matthew-
Thanks for all your input – you are a great supporter of this site – like many others – really enjoy your input (BTW) See my response to you on the last blog (Spina)
Marc
Matthew says:
Marc,
Thanks for the positive feedback. I owned Orko at much lower levels and sold a long time ago. I still like Orko though. It seems like a relatively low risk play compared to its peers. They’ve got the goods! Lately, I’ve been more interested in explorers with lower market caps and tighter share structures. Typhoon Exploration (TYP.v) for example, has one sixth the number of shares outstanding and one twenty-fourth the market cap of Orko. Paragon Minerals (PGR.v) is half the size of Typhoon! Of course each of these three companies have a very different risk profile. I’ve owned Kaminak since it was .72 and remember it being difficult to pull the trigger because it was .58 just days before! I have had to let similar situations get away because I normally do not chase the price.
If it’s of any interest to you, I was telling Jerry about a couple of silver stocks under Wednesday’s Kitco Radio. Both are small producers, so not really Orko’s peers; but both have drills turning all the time and have substantial exploration upside. Both also have far fewer shares outstanding.
Jerry O^OTB says:
matthew….thanks for the tip……
Big Al says:
Thanks Matthew,
I will take a look at them and I do appreciate your investment ideas!
Big Al
Matthew says:
Al,
Since you’re lucky enough to have the friends that you do, a great way for you to get the scoop on IMPACT Silver would be to give Sean Broderick a call. I’ve never been a subscriber of his, but I easily recognized that the great company he was talking about in some of his “teaser” ad material was IMPACT.
Scratching the surface on IPT.v, here are some highlights:
(Trailing 12 months as of 9/30/11)
P/E: 11.53
Profit margin: 34%
Operating margin: 50%
Return on equity: 16.36%
Return on assets: 21%
Quarterly revenue growth: 29.8% (year over year)
Quarterly earnings growth: 381% (yoy)
Total cash: 33.79 M
Cash per share: .50
Total Debt: 0.00
Energold Drilling owns about 10%.
———-
What I like most about tiny Typhoon is the extraordinary leverage to be had due to the extremely tight float of 19.9 M shares. Of course leverage is meaningless without a project of merit, which, luckily, TYP has in spades. Located in what is probably the most mining-friendly place on earth, Quebec, TYP has 100% ownership of the high grade Fayolle deposit. Adding immensely to the appeal is the joint venture with mid-tier gold miner Aurizon Mines (AZK) which I also own. Since May of 2010 AZK has spent about $7M on drilling Fayolle. AZK can earn a 65% interest by spending approximately $27M. So not only is AZK footing the bill (which keeps TYP dilution to a minimum), but the amount spent already is large enough to conclude that this deposit is of serious interest to them. A buyout seems inevitable.
For the record, I will never write positively about a stock that I intend to sell; nor will I ever write negatively about a stock that I intend to buy.
Big Al says:
Hi Matthew,
I too still own Otis Gold.
Best,
Big Al
Martin (UK-WHOLESALE.NET) says:
Hi All & Roger.
You want to have a lokk at this POST from Natixis………. its a joke.
Whats your thoughts, probably the same as the comments, mine included.
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/gold-prices-to-average-$1450-silver-$26-in-2012-natixis-45548-3-1.html
Marc says:
Martin
Trying to get some exposure and screaming like a spoiled brat at a kindergarten playground – that is the only (absurd) conclusion I can come up with. Unless we go to their office and find all the company employees with their heads in the kindergarten school sandbox. Can’t really think of an intelligent thing to tell these guys – unless to put all the US dollars in CD’s and treasuries1 (ha,ha)
Marc
Matthew says:
Good call!
Marc says:
Matthew-
Just got home and reviewed your interaction with Jerry regarding smaller silver explore plays – thanks so much! I will diligently look into these.
All the best,
Marc
Jerry O^OTB says:
Marc….do not worry about those guys….they will be asking you later , if you will sell them some of your gold and silver…..when it is $4000 and 200 per oz…
Martin (UK-WHOLESALE.NET) says:
Hi Al
I would like Rogers opinion on this post. This sounds a more sensible one to me. SILVER TO $140 BY YEAR END 2012. I dont know what Natixis is smoking?
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Moolman/jan262012.html
James B - Montreal says:
Talk about a disconnct:
http://brotherjohnf.com/2012/01/27/the-uk-a-free-nation-deep-in-debt/
Sorry to hear you live in the UK.
Continue to buy gold and silver mate. You and your family will be happy.
UK foreign policy has a lot to do with this. bending over to arab muslims and refusing to withdraw from gibraltar, the falklands and tacitly assisting the turks to OCCUPY Cyprus since 1974 to have a place for the elites to flee.
Q: are the sheeple of Britannia aware of this unsolvable problem? Do they care? FYI, I do not believe that the people living in Quebec, Canada are aware of our unsolvable debt problems ( 226 billion provincial debt for 6 million people; terribly pathetic). In the last election, labour did not do so badly. What are the british putting in their tea?
Martin (UK-WHOLESALE.NET) says:
Hi Al, think there is a problem with the blog, its coming out twice
roger wiegand says:
Everyone is entitled to an opinion. We like gold to $1,923-2,050 for the first half and silver to $38.85 to 44.18; maybe goes to $49.62 double top again but we’ll see. In 2005 I worked very hard over days to forecast highs for gold and silver BASED ON CHARTS AVAILABLE AT THAT TIME. Answer: Gold $2960 and silver $156. I am confident in both and expect much higher numbers. For those that wonder about forecasts way short of ours: We say we need someone on the other side of the trade. Today is 1-27-12. My futures account is up +34% since January 1, 2012.
James B - Montreal says:
From the duplicit kitco.com site:
” The analytical team at CPM Group New York believes that we are possibly in for a short-lived spike in the precious metal. Kitco News notes that “they are maintaining their view that “gold prices will still decline over the next few quarters. “Beyond the start of February gold prices are expected to decline, possibly moving toward $1,700 over the first two weeks of the month,” they said, adding that prices should move between $1,500 and $1,760 through February”
A correction back to $1,500 ??
This is a comment from Tokyo Rose Jon Nadler who was bearish on gold when it was $600!!!
The “analytical team” at CPM group is in effect Jeff Christian, who predicted that silver will be, at best, $36 dollars in 2012 during a debate with Bill Murphy.
Jerry O^OTB says:
………. “BULL-YAWN”…..al’s new call,,trying to out do cramer’s bullya
Dale says:
Hello Al and Roger,
I too am excited by the prospects for silver and gold, but we must not lose sight of the fact that if gold goes to $10,000/ oz the country that we love may be in shambles.
Dale
Jerry O^OTB says:
dale….it is already in shambles….
Jerry O^OTB says:
example….look Barney Frank is getting married….to his boyfriend….
my question to Barney will be , if we have war, which one of them will go….
which is he, and which is she….
kit says:
Hello,
Rodger did you say the CRB index?
Dai Uy says:
Al and TR:
There is a very interesting article on the Kitco site by an Arnold Bock entitled “Governments will want much, much higher gold prices soon”.
I don’t know anything about Bock but his theory is about a possible new world wide currency partially backed by gold is interesting. He points out that until 2010, cental banks were selling gold but in 2011 purchased 420 tons. All participating(mandatory?) countries would draw on this new currency to settle international transactions in proportion to the anount of gold that each country’s cental bank owns. National currencies would continue to exist for their own local and national economies.
I’m not sure how all the squirrels(central banks)could be herded to agree to the same or how poorer countries with little or no gold could compete in International trade under this possible plan. Bock also points out that National central banks coulds then inflate theirselves out of their current indebtness by devaluating their National currencies by printing more fiat currency.
Bock’s theory is a head scratcher for me but an interesting theory nonetheless. If indeed we still have 8000 AU tons in Ft. Knox, perhaps the U.S. might be in good shape under his theory………………………
Jerry O^OTB says:
Dai Uy…..think about this….no one has seen the gold in Ft.Knox since 1960
and the audit is done by outside of the vault…theory says,,,Johnson loaned
the gold to Great Britain…and has not been seen since…
Dai Uy says:
Jerry:
And PM Brown apparently sold a boatload of the stuff in the past several years but I’m sure we have paper promises to pay it back………………. which should leave us all with a sigh of relief……………..LOL
Jerry O^OTB says:
I THINK BROWN SOLD THE BRICKS TO CHINA…could be some of those ,bricks showing up in the vaults in china, that have been spray painted gold…
Marc says:
Hi Kit,
Hopefully Roger will confirm this; BUT I do think I heard him say the CRB index ( as opposed to powershares DBC or the GSCI. BTW, does anybody out there have an opinion on a “good” potash ETF – I have been looking at GLOBAL X’s “SOIL” good call to play the agricultural plays?
Marc
Keep Stacking says:
The cycle of investment money flows : into Bonds then to stocks, then to commodities, then back to bonds. I think we are at the end of the stocks and coming into the big money going into commodities and their equity shares.
These are large cycles, for a long period of time. It is our turn, the PM people.
scott hamilton says:
some times its easy to stay in a commodity stock position , rather than take the risk of using a commodity contract. Recent mess in commodity accounts [criminal brokers, banks etc] make me much happyier to own the commodity producer stocks. AEM still looks undervalued to me at this price. good health to all S
Michael says:
A good week indeed. Looking at ownership of producing seniors and med tier companies with a small pinch of exploration juniors.