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Thanks, Al & ROG…..You guys are a pair of diamonds.
Mr. Irish, I am the diamond and he is still “in the rough” (Or is it the other way around!)
HI AL….talking of, in the rough….GOLF!….An abomination of a good walk …OSCAR WILDE.
That’s better than an obamanation!
MATTHEW yeah i make you right haha
That is getting to be truer and truer of my game!
I love Oscar Wilde! Oh how I wish the great writers were still alive!
Mark, What’s the matter, you don’t like our worthless pulp fiction!
Happy Aniniversary! That is so exciting 25 years! Hope you all do sonithemg to celebrate such a successful business and all of the beautiful photographs that grace the homes of many people!
Hey guys, where’s Jerry? Did Al give him time off for good behavior?
Matthew, I have no idea. Guess he doesn’t like us anymore! (I am sure he will be back shortly, by the way.)
Jumped in today and re-established a position in OK, after the panic subsided. They will find another partner fairly quickly – La Presciosa is too valuable an viable.
Marc, Hopefully you will do well with this.
Now you’re gettin smart, Marc! Blood in the streets can be a good thing…at least figuratively speaking.
Good Job and congrats!
Thanks, Mark….Hey, puttin my money where my mouth is.
All the best,
I would agree with you, as I took a position myself.
Best to you.
HI AL….I sent you an email last night, regarding JERRY. Did you get it ?
No, Mr. Irish I did not.
AL I just resent it, hope you get it this time.
This is interesting. The Dow is currently down 1.2% (down 2.2% on the week), while the HUI is up 1% (up 1.65% on the week). The elusive decoupling that everyone says is impossible could be at hand. This happened from late 2000 to early 2002.
Matthew, yep we could be there.
I was noticing this today as well. Interesting as you say. I’m waiting to see if this continues into a trend.
I have not been at all phased by any movement in Gold over the past two years. Look at the long-term chart going back to 1999. That is the most important chart. The move in stocks is inevitable. They supply the bullion. The demand for bullion is very strong. I would add here if I was not as fully positioned as I am.
Jed, Great point! Thanks
Like you I am fully positioned. Have not paid more than $850/au and $18/ag. It can drop a long ways before I move into negative territory.
That Mr. C is great!
I’m not gloating, just very thankful that I got turned on to buying the physical quite early in this run-up. I do some auctioneering, and one of the business owners I’m friends with and call for, occasionally, turned me on to silver and then gold back in the mid 90s. I’m just dumb enough not to ‘know better’, and so I got serious about it, and lo and behold, this ‘blind squirrel” stumbled onto an acorn.
I’m blessed far more than I deserve!!!
Best to you!
And I thought I was the sensible one. Thanks for setting me stitgrha.
Hi, Al. Well, the inverse head/shoulders is forming as I mentioned weeks ago. The right shoulder could take a little longer yet. I say that since gold stocks have really not moved based on the positive move of gold today. I feel the odds are that the stocks will move lower yet and gold will still trend sideways to down for a little while. We should remember that the stocks usually pre-date the movement of gold whether up or down. I don’t do “waves” like Trader Rog—- I know Rog is getting excited about gold again but if the conventional markets continue to move down, it’ll be difficult for gold to decouple completely at this time. Gold closed under the 50 week MA this past week. THE KEY is if it closes under it this week. If it does, in all probability the 50 week will serve as a resistance level. As you’re aware, I’ve been short oil, materials, banks, conventional markets and the chinese market. People are wondering whether this is a “short” few days correction or something “more meaningful”. I’m in the “more meaningful” camp. This correction could be a number of weeks. In that case gold will still be pressured but not to the degree of the conventional markets. I mentioned to you last Thursday we should see gold rebounding to about $1664-$1660. Well, we’re there. The key now will be the 50 week MA.
I will definitely agree with you regarding gold needing to close above the 50 DMA but that is still VERY possible within the next two weeks….or less. The surprises are going to be to the upside. There has just been TOO MUCH fear for me to believe that the PMs are going to tank.
As for oil….nnnnaaaahhhhhhhhhh. I think that $100 – $95 is the new floor. America is NOT the only country who consumes oil. India is RAPIDLY expanding its use and so is China. Saudi can’t produce what is required even when they say the “can”. It’s a bluff and they know it. They are no longer capable of supplying the oil in quantities they used to. In fact, their production has fallen significantly over the last ten years, as well as Iran’s. I sure would be using tight stops on shorting oil.
Gold, silver, oil, food…..etc, wash, rinse, repeat, etc
And don’t forget to clean behind the ears, damnit!
Yepper, my (wise) friend….yepper!
Remember, Mark, we had a conversation about the USO about 2 weeks ago and the 200 week MA—looks like it’s playing out. Oil could settle out at $95-$100 however if we hit a recessionary spot as the world markets may be telling us, oil could go lower to $80. Since I’m short oil, it has further to run yet on the downside and I’ll ride it until my technicals tell me differently.
You da man!
But I am going to stick with my findings. You might be right, but I think have strong case.
Mark, also remember the comment about how if the copper market rolled over, “watch out below”? Guess what happened today? Copper broke out of a long time trading range. The way the markets are reacting all over the world, it’s signalling a deflationary period and a recession. Is that “bad” for gold? Absolutely not!—-gold will still struggle but not like the conventional markets.
Yeah copper dropped below its 200 DMA but it still has good support between $3.55 and $3.60. Also on the weekly chart, copper looks strong. I don’t think we are going to have a deflationary period just yet. We can also have inflationary prices at the same time as deflationary sectors ( commodities vs housing)
This looks almost exactly like last year. I am sticking to my guns on this one. I don’t think we will have a market meltdown yet. If this is an intermediary correction, then it could last a few weeks, but we should see by the end of this week. With all the trouble brewing in Euroland, ANY news of supporting the Euro markets (Q.E. remarks) will make our markets spike up. Volatility is going to be VERY STRONG this summer….a trader’s dream! or nightmare LOL!!
We’re seeing a deflationary movement in the prices of commodities. That seems odd if demand is strong.
Yes, deflationary movement, but I can remember (and not too many years ago) wheat was trading for $2.98 a bushel; corn $2.65; lumber $1.75; oil $75, etc,. With the world population growing the way it is, I just don’t see commodities continuing on a downward spiral UNTIL we get a COMPLETE and FULL repudiation of the world’s debt. And even then, the demand for resources will drive all commodities up.
I think the ONLY real reason commodities are taking a hit is do to the short term speculators. Anything with a profit is being sold for margin calls and people are overreacting do to fear. You know as well as I that once fear kicks in, the stupidity of people goes exponential, thus resulting in sectors who price SHOULDN’T BE dropping (like PMs) actually drops, leaving those of us who understand what is going on, to scratch our heads and say: “What the %#@$!?! That is why I feel that commodities are still going to OUTPERFORM the general markets even in the short term. India and China are growing but let’s not forget Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan, Thailand, Veitnam, Phillipines, Mongolia, these countries are growing leaps and bounds! And looking south of here, man-o-man! Columbia is outpacing Brazil! Uruguay, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Chili, Ecuador, they too are growing and really developing their technical infrastructures.
Given the action in the general markets, the mining shares did very well today. Unless there’s a crash, the miners will probably not follow the markets lower. If gold goes lower, that’s a different story. On oil, and again, barring a market crash, I have to agree with Mark. $94-$95 looks like the worst case in the short term. I’m not long or short. The setup – risk/reward, just isn’t very compelling in my opinion.
I’ve got a gap to fill on my oil position and then will have to determine if I want to be greedy or not.
Gaps are VERY important to pay attention to. A great example of that was this morning’s action in the gold market. Gold spiked up on Monday creating a gap. Then when the markets opened today, what did gold do? Dropped down and filled the gap right to the cent and then exploded higher. You may be right on the gap in oil but it sure wouldn’t stay down long once that gap got filled.
Good observations by the way.
12bHi, Peter:Thanks for visiting my site. If you need help with bulnidig good links to your site via articles let me know. I might be able to help or steer you in the right direction. Fill out my contact form above.
Mark, here we go, Alcoa just came out with their earnings. Their revenues were better then expected but their earnings came out with a -.10 cents (loss) versus an expected -.04 cents (loss). I plan on purchasing Alcoa in a few weeks when it bottoms out.
Actually, Alcoa made .10 cents a share for the first quarter—-the stock will still trend lower with a decling market.
LOL!!! I just read that! Surprise Surprise
Mark, here’s the issue with the speculators being the problem with commodities—-the commodities were moving down prior to the breakdown in the conventional markets. That’s one of the reasons I began to short oil, materials and the markets. I felt the commodities were telling me something I didn’t want to hear; the fact they may be signalling a very significant global downturn. That’s why I’m not as sanquine as you are relative to the price of oil. You’re right about the increasing demand for oil by India, China, etal. but if there’s a downturn more then anyone expects, anything goes. Cramer (piece of work) makes the comment that it will be good for companies if oil breaks lower but I don’t think he’s even considering the possibility of a deep global slowdown. The Spanish bank situation scares the heck out of me. I’ll bet the Bernank is not sleeping well these nights.
True! Very true my friend!
Hello All you great thinkers,
Here is a very instructive article from Goldseek regarding China’s slowing economy and the ramifications for commodities, namely oil. Enjoy.
Mr C, thanks very much for the link.
You’re welcome Big “Sheriff” Al.
As always, thank you for this fantastic site!
What does Trader Rog think about this article?
Forgot the link.
Hey Brad C.
Well, I’m not Rog, so sorry to disappoint, but I will tell you what I think of it. HYPE – plain and simple. Market psychology in action. Tell the masses what to avoid and then take the opposite position. This article is bunk! Total bunk! What slow down? Here in the U.S? People still need to eat. That requires energy to produce. The U.S. doesn’t grow most of it’s produce, it imports it. We all know what that means. I stated on a separate post of Al’s show, that China is now going to start focusing on growing internally and not focus so much on exporting. Their government is doing a great job of letting the air of their real estate bubble. Bringing down the prices is a good thing, maybe not for the wealthy who put all that money into it. But considering that China has MORE MIDDLE CLASS citizens AND GROWING, that middle class will be wanting to get into a new home. As the “vacant cities” become populated, internal growth will excellerate. Demand is going to go higher for commodities. So long story short…I think the IMF doesn’t know jack. After all, look who sits on the panel.
HI MARK. I for one would not believe anything the IMF BANDITS say, “THEY” are trying to herd the sheep away from the food, then those greedy PIGS can gorge from the trough.
Exactly Mr. Irish!
Heck, just five months back they were telling the world that oil was going to drop because of global economic problems. Look what happened. They also said that derivatives pose a significant risk but that the financial problems could be solved without further Q.E. What did they just do? Come begging to Washington D.C. about needing more money!
Everyone really needs to look back at all the news that has been coming out lately. Most people on this site are very astute and alert to what is going on, but there comes a time when one has to “disconnect” with the news because it becomes nothing but mental “noise”, thus resulting in the inability to make quality decisions. It causes confusion which leads to fear.
I haven’t owned a television in almost 17 years and I don’t miss it one bit! I don’t subscribe to any U.S. MSM newspapers because most of them are just junk (and now defunct). The greatest education I had was talking to foreigners and traveling across the southern hemisphere. Wow! Talk about a wake-up call. One really discovers how much the average American is out of touch with the rest of the world.
I pretty much have had the same experience. Everyone needs to travel to fully understand what is going on in the world!
I’ve recently began wknoirg on a plot for a new musical called Dark World: A Surrealistic Musical Coming soon, if you wish to provide some ideas, feel free to subscribe to my youtube, and PM me your ideas
BINGOrama! Mark A.
Roger, You are absolutely right about what the Fed is and has been doing. The Fed uses its Swap arrangement with the ECB to inject liquidity into the failing Euro system. Fed assumes everything will work out to the better, but how many times in last 10 years has this actually happened.
“Finally, the Fed claims to be prudent. But how can the Fed know the point at which it is no longer prudent to bail out foreign banks? How can it know when the costs of the bailouts start to exceed the benefits to the US public? How can they know what is best for the United States? Interpersonal-utility comparisons are arbitrary. Thanks to the bailouts, some banks may win, some stock owners may win, but at the cost of liberty in Europe and to the detriment of dollar users. Moreover, bailouts produce moral hazards, crises, and losses for individuals in the future. Yet the Fed claims to know what to do: social engineering at its best â€” or, as Hayek would put it, a fatal conceit on the part of central (banking) planners.”
A must read over at GATA ROB KIRBY , Blythe Masters lays an egg….To our CANADIAN FRIENDS scroll down to THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS. Was this reported in the Canadian press ?.
Thanks for the reference Mr. Irish, I will read it today.
Got the news about Jerry. Thank you my friend.
Just a personal comment from Big Al.
Your dialog is not only interesting it is extremely informative. I cannot tell you how valuable it is to me. You folks are the greatest teachers in the world!
Best to all,
I am purchasing more Silver as I listen to this message. I just watched David Morgan and he is back tracking on his outlook for Silver from his $60.00 target down to $50.00. I was just wondering what you think? Thanks Ben