Great commentary from Richard Postma
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Thanks benb,
Yep, Doc did a great job!
Big Al
Big Al,
Are you sure you don’t want to start charging tuition to participate on your site/blog?…wow, great interview!
I need a business manager, Marc
Big Al
Done…where do I sign up….find me an apt in NW Washington…pay me a stipend…good to go…although I am much better at yabbing and marketing than I am a bean-counter…but with this business.you better have some skill with that – and some savvy! 🙂
BTW, give me time to kiss my many siblings and mom – goodbye!
On a serious note,
You know simply by working together as we have we can all do just fine! (And, have a lot of fun at the same time!)
Have a great weekend, Marc.
Big Al
In 1907 Thomas W. Lawson released the Novel “Friday the 13th” and hence the main stream “Superstition” related to this Day took off. It is most interesting to note that the theme of the Novel related to the ability of Manipulators to capitalize on a Superstitious Fear to create a Stock Market Crash on Fri the 13th. Up until 1907 there was fear of Friday and Fear of the # 13. Friggatriggaidekaphobia (Fear of Fri the 13th) was thus born! Freddy between his bookends Benny & Timmy!
Great comment, Ian
Big Al
Doctor: You are absolutely correct. What you said is how it always works out in history. James Grant who is a very intelligent, smart and astute person is saying the same thing but he puts it this way, “The US will go forward to a Gold Standard, this is not a promise nor a threat, it will happen”.
The US will be forced onto some kind of gold standard because of re-balancing in international trade as the World moves off the dollar as standard. Almost every nation is looking for some other medium for international trade, all except for the US. As the US percentage of Global gross income decreases, the forces to move away from the dollar in international trade increases. Right now the US is using its military to keep dollar strong in the World, but this has always been a historical sign of weakness and is never successful when the nation goes deeper into debt both domestically and internationally. The US government is bankrupt and its balance of international trade has been negative for decades.
This piece is a great read and very much a propos.
http://www.kereport.com/2012/04/13/great-commentary-james-postma/
Oooooops….
I meant: http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/jim-willie/golden-eye-of-hurricane
I also wanted to say, that domestically I don’t think the US will go to gold standard, not completely and not right away. But it will be forced onto the World Monetary standard in which gold will play primary role. This means that a vast majority of US overseas military bases will close permanently and the US will have a say in international discussions only to the extent of its domestic economic strength, which will be a fraction of its current Geo-politicial influence.
Couple of great posts, Clay. Thanks
Big Al
I have done well by buying for mostly fundamental reasons and relying on technicals to fine tune those buys. The exploration space is unique in that there is often little to go on fundamentally and, therefore, the charts also cannot be relied upon in many cases. Take North Springs Resources for example. Granted, this is an extreme example, but one could argue that the chart did lie. In December, it was trading at .07 with a MCap of $48M. This was already a staggering sum for a virtually worthless company, but, two months later, it had soared to $1.72 for a MCap of nearly $1.2 B! It has since traded all the way back to .05 and now trades at .10.
Dividends and free cashflow, where they exist, don’t lie. Over the short term, price is a notoriously poor reflection of a stock’s value.
I agree about newsletter writers. They tend to pile on the buy recommendations when things get exciting, then, they hold their subscribers back when great deals finally present themselves.
Matthew,
Be interesting to know who was behind the promotion for North Springs Resources!
Big Al
That’s not difficult to discover. Just look at the time during which the price spike, call the company and ask them if they had any newsletter writer covering their company during such time. Or, look at their website to see if one is mentioned.
I doubt very seriously that even the worst newsletter would put a “buy” on such an “operation” unless the letter was created specifically for this campaign. Absolutely anyone who bought this thing is way beyond foolish.
True Matthew but…
In the fine print on SOME newsletters you will find that the writer received compensation of warrants, or options, or stock. And since 99% of Americans don’t understand what they are looking for, YES, it is very easy to sucker in bunch of buyers to skyrocket the stock. Just look what happened to National Inflation Association, there is another writer who does the same thing and he lives in Scottsdale, Arizona. You won’t know it until you read the VERY VERY fine small tiny print at the very bottom of the fifth page (in an eleven page document) that he is given shares of a company he promotes. And just like sheep to the slaughter, he makes the recommendation – stock explodes often 200% or more – then he sells his stocks or exercises his options.
So, no, i don’t doubt it. It is probably HIGHLY likely.
HIGHLY likely. I disagree. Even the fraudulent NIA was smart enough to at least try for the appearance of credibility. Any newsletter that would recommend NSRS would not live to defraud again. This wasn’t just a pump of a semi-legitimate company like Mexoro a few years ago, NSRS is a complete and total joke. Any newsletter that might have promoted it would have to fold soon after.
Hey Matthew
Have you read the story regarding the junior explorer BRE-X? Now THAT was a fraud! BIG TIME.
But even the NIA got away with a lot more than people realise. I know Peter Schiff really raked them over the coals about it. With the age of the internet and blogs like this, I do have to agree with you that it WILL BECOME A LOT MORE DIFFICULT to fraud, but won’t eliminate it completely.
I sure hope that you made some profit from the NSRS spike! That’s what’s important.
I never owned NSRS. With 696 million shares out, this scam would be overvalued at one tenth of one cent. How the insiders were able to get the price to 1.72 is a mystery to me but it probably involved the trading of shares with each other. The rising price then suckered people in.
Holy Cow! 696 MILLION SHARES!! You are joking right? I never heard of the company until you mentioned them. But that has got to be completely ridiculous. Wow! “There’s a sucker born every minute.”
Hi Al and Dr. Postma,
Have you gotten a look at Smith & Wesson’s chart? Sturm & Ruger is doing well right now too.
Maybe it’s time to go into small arms manufacturers 😉
Lynn
Yeah,
I saw that too..scary?…sign of the times.
Uh huh. But small wonder when we are hearing so much bad news regarding the economy, home invasion, old couples being killed (Al posted the story), etc.
Now we are hearing that this time is worse than the Great Depression in some places. It may be the wise choice for many peoples to find a means of protecting themselves.
But on another note, Conceal & Carry has been legalized here in WI as of late and many residents are applying for permit. Maybe others are catching on and investing into a small arm.
Lynn
Ruger traded as low as $4.07 on 11/17/08. Last week RGR hit $53.29. Looks like Obama deserves a Thank You from Ruger!
Don’t you all find it very interesting that gun sales are going up. I certainly do!
Okay, the heck with it, I am off to practice my rapidly diminishing golf game. Back in a couple of hours.
Big Al
Fundamentals, Big Al. Fundamentals.
😉
Lynn
And funnymentals.
HI Lynn,
Are you a golfer?
I actually had a major break-through yesterday courtesy of my friend Ray Navis.
It just got to be more fun yesterday! Who says Friday the 13th is an unlucky day!
Best,
Big Al
GREAT Interview!
Technicals don’t lie. Now, maybe if you are looking at some of these “micro cap” miners, then it doesn’t always work and often times, misguides. But if you watch insider buying no matter what the company, watch the technicals, and then look into the fundamentals, one should do quite well. But one wants to look at a larger time frame when using technicals.
Morning Mark A,
I would agree with you re: technicals on the very small caps.
Big Al
Hi Al,
Great interview. I agree that SDR’s will be our money in the future. As Bill Still points out in his documentaries, all four presidents who tried to end the banking monopolies were assassinated. Central banks are more powerful then ever and once they have stolen as much as possible through debasement of all fiat currencies, they will switch to SDR. Once you see all the “we buy gold signs” switch to “we sell gold” and the sheeples lining us to buy, it is time to switch to SDR.
Boy, Karen – you, my friend are WAY AHEAD of the curve! Congrats and…
All the best,
Marc
Thanks Marc, Really wish I could foresee a brighter scenario.
DITTO
I can hardly wait for the demise of the US Dollar,so the US can get back to the fundamentals of living that being the enjoyment of just life, it’s not worth being the policeman of the World. I will say that Japan and to some extent other successful Asian nations aren’t nearly as willing to take up their role in World leadership because they have a selfish attitude. Lately Japan had it’s own crisis at Fukushima but do you ever see them trying to help out anywhere else, these are pressing issues that must be shared by countries other than in North America and Europe.
Hi Shawn,
What makes you think the demise of the Dollar will bring enjoyment.???? There will be a great depression and many people will suffer.
I don’t think that is what Shawn really means.
I think that he means when we just start to stick to our own knitting.
Am I wrong?
Big Al
Hi Al, in the late 70’s when people agreed about an idea we had a saying that I’m sure you’ve heard many times, so I will repeat it again, “YOU’VE GOT IT PONTIAC”.
Shawn,
I have agreed with you for a long, long time!
Big Al
China must figure it’s way out of Isolationism and start a dialogue to bring rogue states like Iran, and North Korea into the family of nations then maybe we could deal with improving the lot of mankind. I’m afraid most people and countries have to see the dark side of this nuclear fiasco before we see real change.
What’s your source of news, Shawn? Have you ever listened to a Japanese or Chinese person?
Hello Shawn
Let’s not forget who the greatest war monger has been over the last 60 years. I don’t see any isolationism from China. Secrecy? sure, but don’t we do the same? And if I had to deal with a country that constantly walked around and said “do this and do that or else”, well, I would be an isolationist do. The fact is the U.S. Government has done more to HARM our relationships with other countries than the MSM will admit. Oh sure, you have may have those rogue groups who talk bad about American ideology and culture, but they truly HATE our government and the way it conducts business.
And why should Japan, China, Russia, India, or France step up to be World leaders? World leaders of what? A military regime? Or how about a World Leader in peace and ingenuity, capitalism, invention. Selfishness? HUH???
Oh sure, our country has been VERY generous to helping other countries, but there is ALWAYS an agenda that underlies this generosity. Go read a book entitled “Confessions of an Economic Hitman” or “The Great Game”, or “The Grand Chessboard”. World leaders are told what to do by the ones who control the money, plain and simple. At this point in history, the “powers that be” are using EVERYTHING in their psychological arsenal to build tension and stress in the masses in order to keep them “in line” and ignorant of what is the real agenda. They will use religion, race, rhetoric, prejudice, create new boogy men, etc., just to keep the sheep in their corral.
The greatest education I ever had was traveling. That is when I learned that the eyes of an American are blind because we “think” we know how the world should be and how it “should” operate. We completely fail to understand or view the world through the eyes of another culture. Not that all cultures are good, but American isn’t the only country in the world my friend. And it is the bravado of our U.S. government that sure acts like it is.
Mark A,
Your comments are great especially: how about a World Leader in peace and ingenuity, capitalism, invention. Selfishness? HUH???
Best,
Big Al
I know who the war mongers are but unless you have a world where all nations find common ground and start to reign in the evil science of nuclear bomb technology there won’t be an alternative for any of us and yes the US is selfish but so are many of the other great countries in other ways. People are quick to point the finger at Americans and forget what is not being done by other societies. As sure as god made little apples we will see another war with nuclear weapons and this time the destruction will not be so easy to contain.
Hey Shawn
Well, I don’t doubt that is possible. But remember that Thorium is better than uranium for nuclear energy, and thorium was one of the first radioactive elements tested for such. But uranium degrades to plutonium and THAT’S what’s important for making bombs. Thorium doesn’t degrade to a bomb grade material. I won’t disagree with you that some “quack” will get their hands on a nuke and then it will all start. But who will that quack be? I don’t know, but often it is not the obvious.
People love familiarity. The US dollar is familiar and very widely used. Hard to see that changing any time soon. It would take a black swan event, and those, by their very nature, are unpredictable. I think things will amble along as they have done. Big governments will print money when it suits them, or manipulate their currency via opaque accounting techniques. I expect things will be much the same a decade from now. The US dollar will still be the main currency in the world. It’ll probably be as easy to wean the world off the US dollar as it is to get a smoker to stop feeling the need for a cigarette.
Buy gold and silver for the long term, and they will in the long run hold value relative to fiat currencies. For investment, I can see palladium, platinum and silver become more important over time. I like silver and palladium the most for that.
A dollar demise? Can’t see it. But now I am wondering if I will wake up tomorrow to find out it has 😀 Sod’s law and all that.
Well James
I hate to tell you but many countries already are getting away from the dollar. They are also wanting to start an international bank that surpasses the SWIFT system. U.S. demise? No. U.S. dollar collapse – definitely possible. But that doesn’t mean the dollar is forever gone. It will exist in this country, but I am willing to bet in the next ten years (or less) the U.S. dollar is not circulating like it used to be.
Mark A.,
There is really not much I disagree with you on. If anything…. Bummer, it is kinda of boring…And you are right on regarding the dollar. The far east fledgling powers are already looking to trip up the bully on the block. And It ain’t the mexican peso – either! 🙂
All the best,
Marc
Morning James,
I think that we are closer to a diminishing of the importance of the U.S. dollar than most people realize. Certainly closer than we have been in my lifetime.
Not really sure if that is a bad thing, by the way.
Big Al
I liked the interview, but didn`t really get what alternative he sees to gold backed currency. Is he still defining his thoughts?
Dr. Postma has it “right” in my estimation.
I find the exact same thing that he said about “market gurus”…I listen to all opinions as “part of my process”…then I look at the charts…bottom line is…no matter what somebody’s opinion is…that’s all that it is “an opinion”…
The price on the charts does not lie…it takes in all opinons and all the factors related to where it sits at any moment in time…and this includes “market manipulation”…so as I told a friend of mine several years ago when we were discussing “trading”…I said:
“You can take your opinion and my opinion and everyone else’s opinion and put it in a box and stick it outside on the front porch”…”the price is the price…the chart is the chart…that is the “market”…and everything else…is ‘just noise”!…”
It’s true…nobody knows for sure ….and the markets will do what they do…all we can do…is try to follow the “Story”….and the story is a combination of “fundamentals” and “technical analysis”…so you really need to have some idea of both if you are trying to understand short to intermediate term moves in the market…and even then…a lot of times…”what should be happening”…doesn’t…so long term, if you understand the “Story” behind your chosen investment…then you should come out okay…
Damn this “dementia”…I keep having these “outburst”…man it’s tough getting old…I told a lady the other day who I didn’t know, while waiting for an elevator…your short blonde hair makes you look like Doris Day…she said “thanks”…”you look like Burl Ives!”…I wasn’t quite sure how to take that one….
Bruce
Bruce, I agree. What’s good about technicals is the fact they force you to be more objective—they force you to question your assumptions and positions and allow you to reverse direction and keep your losses minimal.
Is this the Richard that did the interview? If so, BRAVO! I like the way your do things.
Good Day
Thanks Mark, I might mention that I really enjoy your thoughts since they seem (scaringly) to be similar to a lot of mine.
Thank you VERY much for the compliment! I couldn’t help but be curious, you are a doctor but in what field, medicine?
Mark, I started out as a urologist and eventually went into occupational medicine.
Well, then I feel at home! I am a Medical Technologist, ASCP certified, and have done FAR TOO MANY urinalysis, from the old fashion dipstick method all the way to the new fangled automated systems IRIS. But I am mostly a Generalist with emphasis on emergency blood transfusions and blood banking.
Great point, Doc!
Big Al
That’s great, “You look like Burl Ives”!
Have a jolly holly Christmas!
Big Al
bruce…..maybe, she wanted to look like LADY GAGA……
I listened to this yesterday, but did catch what monetary system he proposes since he does not believe gold is necessary. Can Doc tell us?
Missive, could you state that again. I want to make sure I fully understand what you’re asking.
From what I recall, Al said you didn`t agree that gold should or could be made the US currency again and you stated a few reasons for that. I do not recall hearing what alternative you propose. So my question is, what other alternative do you see?
Excellent interview guys.