Gold and Technical Analysis
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Jerry M….
My techincal trend line charts also, indicate a deterioration from the mean ,these overlap the political cycles chart, which have been moving
violently and indicate a deterioration in the availablity of qualified canidates.
Since, the surrender of Santorum, these cycles are indicating a potential
landslide, for the remaining pool of contenders. IF ,this landslide should
take place, it would be fair to assume, either Obama or Romney as potential
representatives for their respective parties….If, after the general election
which is to be held in November, that either of these canidates should survive,
my charts indicate that one of them will be president of the united states..,
if either of these canidates should select not to accept their nomination, then
all bets are off, and the current precious metal market , should shine as a
beaken in the nite. If silver does correct , I predict that it will go up or down,
in either case the movement of silver will be different than today’s prices,
If it should go up…many will say I told you so, if it goes down they will say
I told you so. Either way they will be correct, due to the fact, that they will
only mention these corrections after they have occurred…
Since, I and Al, are not TA , experts,,,do not accept this as investment advice.
inaddition…the above is ment for entertaiment purposes only,and is a joke,
but, so is Obama…
respectfully……ootb..
ps…you should have missed me more….
Do you write comedy for television?
By the way We are on the same page.
Big Al
yes, I write for MONDAY NITE LIVE….they kicked me off SNL
and yes Al, we are on the” same page”,the one they forgot to print….ootb
Yeh, Out of the Box,
But we print it all here, don’s we!
Big Al
P.S. By the way, what time is it on tonight?
Let me count the ways: Your analysis was concise and to the pointless which is more than I can say for the majority of the newsletters out there.
Man you cost me more money for another “tolerate” cap. Wore the last one out.
Go Gators !!
Jerry M….thank you for your reply,
at first glance, I thought you were Shakespeare, but, Elizabeth Browning, wrote
the famous quote, but, I am sure you were thinking something else…..
If you have encounter any expense in obtaining your second “tolerance cap”, just
return the original along with a paid receipt, to BIG AL KORLIN,
SEATTLE WASHINGTON, COLLECT OF COURSE…and he will return your payment
asaap….(as soon as al pleases )Go Gators…GO HUSKIES, GO BOILERS, GO HOOSIERS
GO IRISH…..did I leave anyone out….
In the Box,
I will need an advance from the tax deposit which you are in charge of!
Big Al
With the $ selling off today, Spain yields reaching crises levels, the dow up strong, and even oil uo a little I would have expected gold to be going up today – instead it is mired down. Where is the logic here?
There is no logic when it comes to the metals. Fundamentally, gold should be WELL ABOVE $1800 right now. Watching silver just trend but Silver Wheaton getting taken to the wood shed on news from one of its suppliers, even though the news is nothing serious! Logic? Completely gone. Silver looks like it wants to roll over, yet it also looks like it wants to just go sideways. We could see a quick spike low to around $29 (maybe) and then a start of a new but VERY SLOW rally. This is not worth trading, I can say that much.
Mark,
If you don’t mind my asking where did you get the info. on SLW. I can’t find any news at all and the volume is twice what it normally is. Thanks.
Google Finance
A link is provided from GOOGLE – Finance to a website called http://www.estockdaily.com
Mark, I’m sitting on the sidelines and have been for weeks. Recently, I did take my in the money option position off of one of only 3 gold stocks I own. There is no hurry to get into any of these stock positions due to the large amount of technical damage done. We’ll have the real opportunity weeks from now. When you have this kind of damage, the stocks often don’t reverse “on a dime” unlike what happens in a correction in a momentum move to the upsides.It’s important to keep your powder dry and cash in hand. The time will come when the prices will become very appealing.
Great Afternoon Dr. Richard
As much as it pains me to admit this, I am having to lick my minor wounds regarding a call option on SLW. I believe you are completely correct in that it is going to take some time to heal this technical damage. Have you noticed how the dollar keeps grinding sideways while the metals keep grinding up and down? It seems that when the dollar moves up 30 pips, then gold and silver react rather strongly. But when the dollar moves DOWN 50 pips, gold and silver don’t seem to respond, or rather, drift slightly lower. VERY strange trading activity. This looks like it is building pressure.
Have great day!
Mark, I hate to say this but it appears to me that the odds are the dollar will move sideways a little longer and then have a good chance to move up. This in all likelihood would be due to more problems in Europe. If that happens, I think this time gold may not react deleteriously. If the dollar makes a move and then tops, it’ll be the time for gold to finally shake itself from its’ doldrums. Like I’ve said, be patient. This PM bull market has a long ways to go. We’re in the process of a massive consolidation. Technically for markets, the longer the consolidation in a trend, the greater the move when an asset breaks out again in that trend.
Richard, when Greece had its problems (and still does) I was rather surprised that the dollar didn’t move higher. So, with Spain now coming to the front burner and Itally right behind, we may just get a stronger move up in the dollar. But I’m also wondering if this will be the time that the U.S. dollar and gold “disconnect”, that is to say, they actually start to move up TOGETHER.
I guess I’ll have to whip out my patience manual and read it again. Kind of like waiting on those chemisty analyzers to finish their results when the doctor is wanting the BUN and CREA stat! LOL!!
Mark, I found the video you were talking about. They never mentioned which property it was, but from the looks of it, it was Clear Creek. At the time of the video they hadn’t yet drilled Grew Creek and did not yet own Brewery Creek -both of which are, today, more important projects. I noticed in the press releases at the time of the video that U.S. Global Investors (Frank Holmes) had increased their stake in GPD to 12.98%.
Here’s a good video from about a year ago that was produced by Al’s company.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZE9rWUHrhYQ&feature=results_video&playnext=1&list=PLEAFD7E75D84D5BEF
howdy Matthew!
Well, the good thing that came from this is that you sent me some great info! I hadn’t looked into more recent videos but I was aware that US GLOBAL was looking into the company, I just hadn’t updated my info to see if they had bought. Frank Holmes is no dumby, but I just don’t have the really deep pockets like he does. I’ve been watching it deliver great drill results but have been hesitant to jump in. Thanks for that news Matthew! Glad we can relay data back and forth!
Mark, thank you, too. Not only was the Cook video a good one, but because of the points you brought up, I found things that I had either forgotten or didn’t know. It was definitely time well spent -and I’m not done yet. Like platinum, your post was a catalyst!
I am with you Doc!
Big Al
Matthew,
Just a point of clarification. We did not produce that video. Even Keel Media did.
Best,
Big Al
Oops! Sorry ’bout that.
There is no fundamental logic. We’re currently in a cyclical bear market for the PMs in the longstanding secular bull market.
Hi Doc,
I would agree with your comment.
Big Al
We are truly dealing with A lack of fundamental economic sense.
I’m convinced will be okay in the long run.
These day today movements are nonsensical. ( Pardon my droid for the misspellings!)
Big Al
Big Al
Slap your droid, will ya.
Stop blaming your droid. That’s not nice!
Gotta blame somebody (or something) Peter. I can’t take responsibility for myself!
Big Al
where is Irish when you need him?
Well I can see the symmetrical triangle on the gold chart going back to August .. thing is, in my experience, those can break either way. One reached a point in Dec, and it broke downward .. but that downward break became the support of another triangle, now a longer triangle. And here we are again, it’s reaching a point. So I’m expecting a move soon.
When performing TA on mining stocks a foundational TA should be enngaged on the target metal.
That does make sense if you are a believer in TA.
Good point, Dennis M!
Big Al
Al, I believe that we’re now in for a “slog”. I actually think the PM markets are going to become less volatile while moving wrenchingly sideways to down. I still feel we’ll see the high $1500’s on gold and $28-$29 on the silver markets. The conventional markets should see more volatility and proportionately move down more then the PM markets. We’re seeing a deflationary tone to the commodity markets and the “bubbled” stock markets. The physical precious metals markets should be encouraging to your listeners since we’re consolidating and it looks like volatility is drying up. These are the type of markets I personally appreciate since it gives me a chance to add to my positions before the next significant move up which should be months from now. I’ll begin to add to my physical positions for the first time in months when gold settles in the high $1500s. People should not be discouraged since healthy bull markets act like this intermittently.
Richard,
I agree with you on the physical aspect of gold and silver. That has to be the foundation of your hierarchy of needs portfolio along with other must have items for safe harbor during the unknown times ahead.
We currently are experiencing a gut-wrenching deflationary undertow (debt deleveraging/default) environment with sporadic and damaging high inflationary pocket’s within the greater economic complex.
There is no doubt that for a while the PM’s and select commodities will be under pressure in a downward sloping trend. This is just a temporary phenomenon IMO. The dollar should gain ground for awhile but katty- bar-the-door as time move’s on the dollar accelerates to the downside.
Longer-term folks have got to be smart and fight the desire to lighten up, or holding off when they should be adding to their PM physical positions. In a few years this is going to be looked back upon as a monumental buying opportunity in the bullion and coin arena. A one hundred dollar range is going to seem ridiculous when put in the proper context of an insurance policy against the greatest black swan in modern history.
Jim Sinclair who is one of the smartest people alive has already cryptically told those who will listen that the coming day of reckoning and the subsequent monetary black swan will unfold sometime between 2015-2017.
Additionally, the miners will have their day but I would be a physical PM buyer in a high percentage of my total portfolio more so than I would a paper instrument such as miner’s. An aside, I don’t feel the miner’s will ever recapture the the moves of yesteryear. There will be some that will have massive gains but overall, they are paper products that can disappear in a flash.
I really like Bob Moriarty as big Al does and agree with him that miners are ownership in real tangible assets and they are valuable, but make no bones they are paper products and really owned by the corrupt DTCC unless transferred to individual in certificate form.
In closing, I really like Trader Rog and appreciate his inputs but It has become more apparent that TA to some degree, has been rendered impotent and untrustworthy. And actually a case could be made that TA is a valuable tool used by the big monied interests to sway markets and sectors unfairly.
Don’t kid yourself for a second, we no-longer live in our grandparents world where some degree of honest markets and true governance of those markets were commonplace.
We now live a an artificial world of propaganda, misdirection, lie’s, corruption, and fraud by which profit’s are realized by any means through the use of asymmetrical warfare in all endeavors of life.
We live in a world of brute force by those powerful agencies and controlling entities that were created to protect, but actually foster and facilitate the “force structure” and no sector is forced to deal with the brutality of unfair markets more so than gold and silver.
Respectfully
V
I agree, Trader Rog focuses a lot more then myself on short-term TA; I use TA more on the long term basis and it has served me well. I don’t short-term trade. Many times I’ve disagreed with Rog but it’s because I put a lot of stock in momentum indicators and other indicators and don’t do a lot with Elliot Wave. I look at the big picture since the longer term the charts the more validity they add to your outlook. There’s one chart I follow incessantly that everyone should follow—it’s telling me we should see a significant move in the markets in about 6-12 months. This chart is my “sine qua non” chart.
What do you mean, “we don’t live in our grandparents’ world? You thinking that all is not sweetness and roses?
Big Al
Big Al,
I don’t know much but I do know one thing. If you were my grandfather I would be one of the luckiest kid’s in the world to have ole big Al as a mentor and someone to look up to.
Respectfully
V
Vortex! Great words of wisdom. I need all you experienced people around to help guide an idiot like myself. Sometimes, that dang ol “emotional brat” wants to jump out and make a hissy.
Stay frosty everyone! ESPECIALLY ME!
Mark Alan,
You are most certainly not an idiot and I learn just as much from you as you do from me. You are one of the few who will in all probability overcome the worst of whats coming because you appear to be resilient, concerned, knowledgeable, inquisitive, and most importantly not apathetic. You are aware!
Mark the mere fact that you’re here at big Al’s forum means that the “emotional brat” in you has already identified and harnessed the reality of the modern matrix construct and are going to be miles ahead of the unfortunate cannon fodder that you come in contact on a daily basis.
Respectfully
V
the words “cannon fodder” always brings back the images I had while I was reading Shelby Foot’s “Trilogy of The Civil War”. I sure hope I don’t end up like that.
Doc, just look at the last ten or more years. The tourtise may not always win the race, but he always gets to the finish line!
Big Al
Gold is holding up beautifully in spite of down market and manipulation. Good stocks with proven resource are at bargain levels in terms of what they have in the ground.
I agree. Also, Jed, just an update on AVL. It appears to be breaking down on my daily charts and looks ready to break down on my weekly charts in the next couple of weeks. Jed, I believe you’ll get the chance to back up your 18 wheeler and purchase AVL eventually at about $.70.
Jed,
I completely agree!! It is like gold is ‘trading” at 900 an oz…just as an example!
Marc
I completely agree with you regarding bargains, Jed.
Right now is just a tough time!
Big Al
Technical analysis and trading, along with forecasting future prices, can be very alluring, especially in markets that bring substantial returns quickly. I did quite well last year and the IRS was happy for it. I admit, I probably got a bit lucky too.
I am now long and plan to stay long for the foreseeable future. I prefer to trust the fundamentals right now and not risk a major calamity and have the metals take off and leave me in the dust. These are tough markets to trade.
What the public markets won’t price into these PM stocks, private interests will. I say lose the trading book and ride some quality companies. I am hearing some of the more notable traders sound very frustrated.
HI Jerry C,
Good point!
Big Al
Hi Al, about that 2nd home that Clay talked about, where should it be in a rural country side or city. And near a favorite gold mine near by, have cattle, sheep ranch ? I`m thinking about the future this year or early next year. What do you think, do you think this is a good idea ? And have you got a place that you have thought about ?
HI Den,
At this point I have no plans to leave, but that could change in a flash.
I was very taken with a city in Chile called Vina del Mar. A town right on the ocean where I had the best seafood stew I have ever had in my entire life. The people were great and the architecture was very cool. Kathy and I watched “Under the Tuscan Sun” last night and some of the Italian ocean side architecture reminded me of that city.
Best,
Big Al
Hi AL, thanks sounds like a good place to start with. From when Clay said that country and me thinking about it so far is looking good. I`m looking like I guess a chicken, but then I`ll now have to look into speaking Spanish, but that`s good from anyway for all the mining south of the border anyway. I`m just a bit worried about the economics right now being so negative. I`ll have a place up in northern CA where my brother can stay at if worse comes to worst, since he`s going to vote for, yes who, el-duce Obama. But he`s family. Seems like any place that`s pro-mining might be a good place to be anyway. I`m working on my gold alot more than usually. Looking like Silver looks real good, probably easier to trade for things in after the dollar crashes, than does gold.
Hi Den,
You northern California (assuming you mean Sonoma and north) is pretty nice. Don’t know much about Redding but Crescent City and Shasta are pretty cool!
Big Al
The problem with pursueing techinical analysis you have to have an unrigged market to play in. At this point in the bull market the riggers of the market have control and we are left to hope and believe that condition will change and reverse it self. Betting against helicopter ben and the world banks is a risky proposition. Knowing your postion is correct does not mean it will come about in a reasonable time frame. Like most things with value in life, it has to happen when all the pieces to the puzzel are in place.
I agree Larry. I do believe; however, that the fundamentals that tell me that the long term outlook for the pm sector is positive are correct.
Big Al
Hi Big Al,
My understanding is the US dollar , being the world reserve currency, is being streached in every direction, to paper over the world problems. For some investors to think that gold and silver are going to jump to the front, today and rocket up, next week, well they are not being patient. The dollar has to fail, first, to paper over the world problems. Until that happens, gold and silver will have a back seat on the bus. Best to you.
there is always more fun on the back seat of the bus.
Keep Stacking,
I agree as I mentioned above.
Big Al
An excellent article today on how Vietnam’s Central Bank is supressing the ability to trade in gold there. No reason why other cental banks can’t or won’t try the same type of practices and policies to keep gold prices in check.
Go to the Kitco site and under contributed commentaries, look for the article entitled ” Vietnam goes Nuclear on gold”
Thanks Kai Uy!
Big Al
Sorry for the typo Dai Uy!
Big Al
$
[…] Listen to the entire radio segment here… […]
I use what I call technical analysis light. I have analyst friends that follow each and every tiny wave. I do not and cannot do that… to me its not tradable. I would recommend using the weekly charts first for trend and then the daily charts for entry and exit along with some faster ones. Al and I are finding a great deal of confusion by bloggers relating to the time frames other than those expressed on the radio. A 90 day trend is much different than the next 14 days. I will do my best to relate the calendar and cycles and time when writing this stuff. – Traderrog
OO
”
STAY ON TREND…
Roger,
With the amount of TA knowledge I possess I am looking at a possibility of silver at 24, SLW at 24 and AG at 12.00. All three could reach these price levels and still be in an uptrend according to the weekly chart. Is this something you agree with? I’m trying to work out a worse case scenario for the above mentioned metals and still assure myself that the uptrend is still intact even with the decline.
Thanks and any response would be greatly appreciated.