Technicals vs. Fundamentals
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Ryan,
Excellent, excellent points! Especially, The LAST TWO sentences in your above post is exactly right! Humility will lead you to precious metals. I completely concur with that statement! That’s is why most Americans are NOT in this sector. They have SUPREME confidence in our Country. I wish they would get a “GET REAL” attitude. Or you will not survive the changes that are coming and coming very, very fast. It’s a mathematical and fundamental long-term certainty – end of story!
All the best,
Marc
Your absolutely correct mark!
Al
Sorry Marc for the misspelling. Darn smartphones!
Big Al
No worries, Big Al, that makes me one step closer to Mark A.’s, intellectual level…and that’s a compliment. 🙂
All the best,
Mark…er Marc, I mean!
Hi Ryan,
I am bearish on general economic conditions And that is the main reason I’m in the sector.
IRISH THIS IS FOR YOU……
http://news.yahoo.com/down-fed-ron-paul-adventure-game-exclusive-video-202121695.html
Ryan,
I agree with Marc and Big Al. Your comments are excellent and a good reminder about keeping balance and perspective.
Way to go Big Al !! It only took three times to get an answer from the same question from your guest. You kept asking and he finally answered. Good interview.
Hi Jerry,
He is a very sharp guy. I don’t think he understood my question.
Big Al
HI AL I’m in the FUNDAMENTAL camp……..BUY BUY SILVER. (physical ).
Irish….
Are you giving investment advise? Shame, Shame Shame! I will have to call out the SEC and have the NSA send you off to one of those new fangled FEMA CAMPS. Let me know how it is when you get there.
But you are right.
HI MARK …..If they are anything like U.K. prisons , then it will be like a holiday camp. The criminals here in the U.K. have more rights than their victims. PS you do realise if you grass me up JERRY will hunt you down, because he’s my mate…haha.
If he looks anything like “Jason” from Friday the 13th, then I might be a little intimidated.
MARK……… Word has it , he makes “JASON” look like “BAMBI”……So be scared, be very very scared..hhhhhhhheeeeeeeeeeeeee.
“gulp”
WHO YOU GUYS TALKIN BOUT….
Can he convince you to come on our show?
Big Al
No. As I said before, Big Al. I am the LAST person who should be on your show.
speaking of FEMA….YOU KNOW IRISH, MRS. O. was the lead instructor at the Obese FEMA camp, BUT,
since HER RETURN , I hear the secret service guys have been
chasing her around the OVAL OFFICE just before they left for Columbia….
do you think , there is anything to such a situation….
WELL JERRY …They had to get some practice in , before heading to the hotspot, lets face it they did not want to let the side down.
IRISH AND MARC…MARK…..THIS IS FOR YOU ALL
http://news.yahoo.com/down-fed-ron-paul-adventure-game-exclusive-video-202121695.html
Jerry O.,
You, my friend, ARE a classic…where do you get this stuff! LOLLL!!
I already installed it on my hard drive! Yippeee!!
I think BIG AL,,should have a” DAILY SPECIAL” on this one….
“PLAYING WITH BEN” or “BEN AND THE GANG…”or “BEN HOPPS TO IT”
Hi Mark,
Have you heard about the new robot drones the can find you anywhere?
To me that is pretty scary!
Big Al
Yes. Would you like to see the report from Texas Instruments who have developed a microchip what will allow your smartphone to see through walls and clothing? It is true.
Mark A,
I have to say, chips like that, robotic drones that can find you anyplace all bother me.
I know there are two sides to every story, but man shades of George Orwell!
Big Al
Mr Irish,
I am with you!
BigAl
Undeniably believe that which you stetad. Your favorite reason appeared to be at the internet the simplest thing to remember of. I say to you, I definitely get annoyed while folks consider concerns that they plainly do not understand about. You controlled to hit the nail upon the top and defined out the entire thing without having side-effects , other folks could take a signal. Will likely be again to get more. Thanks!
Al, I think one of the appropriate remarks by Rick is that “technicals don’t lie”. The technicals currently are not that positive for gold let alone the conventional markets. The encouraging thing about the gold market is the slow drift down. We will see gold in the upper $1500’s and it will test it’s last low point. At that point, one will then be able to determine with some certainly whether we go lower or not. The “canary in the coal mine” is the conventional markets which from my perspective is in bubble land. If the conventional markets are entering a “cyclical bear market” within a “secular bear market” as I suspect, then it’ll be very tough for gold to break out until a large amount of money printing is once again waved to the public. Most cyclical bear markets generally last longer then 6 months and so you may have to wait longer for a rally that takes us to the previous high.
HELLO RICHARD, You say “technicals dont lie”, but how can they be trusted, when there is clearly manipulation going on in the markets, i also believe we will get QE no later than the end of August, it could come as early as next month. I believe “THEY will want to paint a rosy picture ahead of the elections , because “THEY” will want their man OBAMA back in office…….Just my opinion.
SORRY RICHARD I should have referred to RICK tecs. dont lie…my finger was racing ahead of my brain.
Mr. Irish,
I have to completely agree with you at this point. But, then again, I simply don’t know much about TA. Give me a bit of time and then I will be really dangerous!
Big Al
Afternoon Richard,
Since I really don’t understand TA at all I simply can’t comment.
I will be taking a webinar from Rick shortly just so I can maybe understand a bit of this method!
Big Al
I might join you since I’m always curious to see if some more info will add something to my armamentarium.
Regarding Rick’s comment “technicals don’t lie”. I would have to emphasize that it all depends upon the individual reading the chart(s). As I have learned from my own self education in the T.A. realm, along with reading work from full time active traders, one can easily find just as much confusion as they can answers. If “technicals don’t lie”, then almost everyone educated in T.A. would always be profitable. I have found more often than not, that T.A. can also be MISREAD, thus resulting in what an individual trader would call a ‘lie”, especially on a short term, or intermediate term basis. But that is what is great about the markets. They are sentient “beings” so to speak, in that the markets are a DIRECT reflection of human psychology and emotion. Yes, regardless of markets being manipulated, even the act of interference gives signals within T.A. that something “appears” strange.
Regarding the price of gold: I am VERY impressed that gold has not dropped below $1610 during these last 30 days. I am also impressed that with option expiry in GLD and SLV on Friday, that the prices didn’t drop even more. I also read from Casey Research’s BIG GOLD report that VIA MAT has “REACHED ITS CAPACITY FOR STORAGE OF PRECIOUS METALS IN ALL THEIR VAULTS AND ARE NOW LOOKING INTO EXPANDING THEIR STORAGE SERVICES INTO OTHER COUNTRIES AND REGIONS.” Wealthy Italians have shipped more gold in Switzerland this last month than any other time since WWII (article found on zerohedge). Spain is about to ignite and Italy won’t be able to postpone events there much longer. I honestly don’t see how the metals can fall much lower, but a quick spike could be possible to shake out all the extremely weary and tired longs. Looking at the $U.S. dollar index “seems” to be a bit bullish, but yet, it also appears VERY bearish. Reason? With all the trouble coming from Europe over the last year, the dollar can NOT HOLD above 80 on the index?? The UUP etf show great bearishness than just a chart of the dollar index. Oil keeps bouncing, copper just bounced, silver and gold are holding really well and NOT falling despite ALL THE WONDERFUL NEWS OF AN ECONOMIC RECOVERY – gold should be falling, especially silver.
According to what I see on JUST A GOLD CHART alone, I see a small Head & Shoulders forming between mid-March to present. This is within a Falling Wedge starting from February 29th to present. And this within a MUCH LARGER developing – 6 month – Head & Shoulders pattern. Now if I couple this with NEW FUNDAMENTALS that are starting to arise, I would strongly argue that gold appears ready to rise. But if it does drop below $1600, I would seriously want to consider buying much more physical than I have now! It would probably be the LAST GREAT BUYING opportunity we will ever get. And I do believe that the banks and sovereigns know this. They are not stupid.
stay frosty
Very , very valuable commentary Mark A., thanks so much!
Marc
Hi Anette! :-)I finished work about 90 mins ago and I’ve got a hehcdaae :-)Nice photos! 🙂 I’m presumning you must be tired in the photo where you are saying good night:-) Taking that into account it’s amazing how fresh, and also beautiful, you look in that one. Nice hair style too! 🙂 That one is a very nice photo of you Anette! :-)Helsingborg looks like a nice place too! 🙂 Looks like quite a small place as well 🙂 I’ve never been so perhaps it’s bigger than it seems :-)Enjoy the rest of your Sunday Anette! 🙂
Hi Mark A,
Your comment about all people who practice TA should be filthy rich is a very interesting one!
Best,
Big Al
HI FOLKS ……..I said it before & i will say it again………..BUY MORE SILVER…(PHYSICAL)…….Sorry for sounding like a parrot.
and don’t just BUY silver…..BUY AS MUCH SILVER AS YOU CAN! No, don’t get caught up in the hype, but I would agree with Irish on this one. Look around the house and gather up all the things you don’t need, sell them, and buy physical.
MARK . That’s what i did……..A survey carried out here in the UK some while back, found that households had on average £3000 worth of items , stored in garages & attics, & scattered about the house , these were items that the household did not use, or would not use again. I am sure it’s the same in the U.S……..So folks have a garage sale, & spend what you make on PM’s. After having giving a percentage to your LOCAL charity.
I would not doubt that for one second, Irish! But here in America IT IS FAR WORSE.
Irish,
Very forward thinking – clever idea. Now you are thinking like Chris Duane…..over at Silver Shield.com. Don’t worry that is a good thing…a very good thing! 🙂
Cheers, Irish
Marc
Hi, Does anyone know of a way of cgaihnng the way that emails look in your inbox so that you can see at a glance if they have been replied to without opening them to see if there is the text you replied on xxxx’ ? I’m looking for a simple way of telling when an email hasnt been replied to without having to do anything so the ideal way would be for all emails that have been given a reply to change colour in the inbox so its clear which emails have and havent been replied to. Any ideas anyone? Maybe an add on? We are an internet retailer and get hundreds of emails per day at times so i want an idiot proof way of missing an email to reply to. We use outlook 2007 at the moment.
Great advice regarding giving to a charity, Mr. Irish.
I don’t care what In the Box says, you are a good guy!
The Sheriff
I told him the same thing…..charity starts at home…….
and since I am family, he should send it to me….
April 21, 2012, at 11:24 am
by Jim Sinclair
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Locked and loaded. QE to infinity, which is debt monetization on steroids because you have no clue how terrible the wrath of the collapsed 2008-2009 OTC WMD derivatives still are. The collapse of 2013 – 2015 will be a horror to behold. The mortal sin of the FASB is that it remains deeply hidden from anyone’s view, being painted solvent by the blessing of the gatekeepers of auditing, the supposed soul of truth and transparency. Surely FASB will be damned as OTC WMD derivatives are not a victimless crime.
______________________________________________________________________________
Folks in a few short words Jim has told us all what is coming. I know the doom and gloom gets very tiresome, but the truth and all it’s pain cannot be ignored.
“The collapse of 2013 – 2015 will be a horror to behold.” (JS)
It appears that Jim has moved up his time frame for the great unwind by two years. A week ago it was 2015-2017.
If there ever was a reason to hold private gold, silver outside of the banking system it is this moment in time, as the worthless derivative’s time bomb is in cascading default NOW!
Your so called national leaders whom are unfit to operate a lemonade stand are not going to keep you informed on these matters.
It will be QE to infinity just as Jim has said many times to paper over systemic insolvency at the federal, State, County, City, and Municipality level’s just to keep the economy from immediately imploding. The FED cannot stop printing or it’s game over, and because of this printing the currency will be significantly weakened.
The bankruptcies will come and come in mass. This cannot be stopped.
V
V, Those are very foreboding comments – but very true – V, has issued the warning as the messenger – now let’s heed the message – any “newbies” out there!!!
Marc
Marc,
I don’t want to be known around here as, or come across as a scaremonger but folks really should be taking on more of a preppers mentally because your going to need more than gold and silver.
Even when this unfolds it won’t be the end of the world, just a temporary in nature, but bad nevertheless.
Just preparing a little now could make a world of difference down the road.
This is a very smart group and I’m sure most already have put away the items to sustain.
V
V,
You make an excellent point…I haven’t – I am getting on that now as I write. I wasn’t ‘running around – scared’ with 911,Y2K AND 2008. I was concerned. But, I don’t know – things are changing real fast. I really believe you are not a “scaremonger”. You are very intelligent person putting reality out there for all those to digest and face…..good for you!!
All the best,
Marc
Thanks my friend. Best to you.
V
HELLO MARC I’ m in the same camp as VORTEX , on this , it’s wise to prepare , & even if it turns out we were wrong, you wont have lost anything…..but if it turns out we were right, & you have not prepared………Then you could lose everything.
Pretty much, V!
Big Al
HEY Marc…..is a” newbie”..anything like a “secret service guy “in training….
What type of “training” would that be? :).
I don’t know about you guys, but if I remember correctly I never really needed training. (Notice I said if I remember correctly!)
Big Al
Afternoon V,
The meetings this week will be fascinating.
I, for one, have no idea how this economic horror story can possibly have a happy ending without a lot of pain first!
Do you?
Big Al
Hi Big Al, my apologies for the late reply.
Al as crazy as it sounds’ I think Jim Sinclair is actually understating the severity of potential fiscal problems and the implications. He is trying to give highly important information without causing a major ruckus or panic.
I think he is very alarmed, and make no bones about it. Jim is connected with high level contacts.
I’m telling you Al, there is no way this current population in the U.S. could withstand a week long or multiple week’s long banking holiday, ATM’s not working, food delivery interruptions, gas availability problems amid a potential currency devaluation to keep control of exploding deficit’s.
Respectfully
V
There’s a terrific amount of kngwoedle in this article!
Vortex,
Once again, your comments are greatly appreciated!
I am so thankful I have this site to come to for the wisdom and opinions that are free for the taking. No costly fees or memberships…just plain good folks discussing the TRUTH!
Jody D
Hi Jody,
It is folks like you and all the others here that keep me coming back and I’m thankful for all that you provide as well.
take care my friend.
V
Kareena December 31, 2008 I am preparing for the salfceorse certification exam, and have gone through your blog post. Thank you for taking the time to create this! Are many of the questions in the certification exam case study or scenario based? Or is the emphasis more on definitions and technicalities?
JODY..Hello….This is truly a great site, & i come here for the same reason as you. BIG AL’s site has been my guiding light for the past three years, & i shall still be here in three years time………………GOD willing.
Yes indeed Mr. Irish. Agreed!! Big Al’s site does provide calmness, tranquility, balance and perspective. I’ve never heard him raise his voice, get perturbed with anyone, disagree rudely, or disrespect anyone. Listening to the Big “Sheriff” is like sitting on your front porch(with a cup of coffee, or guiness for Jerry and Irish) in a well-worn rocking chair, listening to your favorite uncle telling stories of yesteryear. And there’s a cool breeze wafting up through the pines and the faint aroma of black cherry pipe tobacco. And you’ve just finished off one of Grandma’s great turkey dinners, and that big piece of apple pie alamode is just beginning to settle. Ahhhh, and then the soothing, rich, bass, voice of Uncle Al regales you with events from another era. Thank you Big Al, for this oasis, a place to gain a modicum of sanity in an insane world.
GOTTA LOVE THAT BLACK CHERRY SMELL……c…hero…how ya doing….
Hi JerryO^OTB,
I’m doing well, just extremely busy. Not able to engage here at Korelinopolis as often as I would like. Going back to school, whew! that’s scary at my age. Work changes, shift changes, sleeping changes…..a lot of change going on, But, that’s good. Keeps the ol’ brain from going numb on you. Always enjoy your posts and the other good folks that write here. It just gets better all the time.
Best to you my friend! and God bless!
PHEW..Castanheiro……….Your porch sounds like the place to be………I’m on my way, get the Guinness in………i will pick MAD JERRY , UP ON THE WAY……..hope you have two more rocker’s ready…..haha…………..for two old rockers.
iRISH…..pick up one of those smoking ‘” PIPES” we were discussing,
No, not that kind…we don’t want to be picked up by the ‘”BOBBIES”
Tell, c.hero….keep the porch kleen till we get there…..
Using my reply box since sometimes I don’t see a place to respond to some blogs. Yes sirree boys, I’ll get the porch cleaned up and the rockers glued back together, and I’ll load up on a good stash of fresh black cherry tobakkee. Bring Uncle Al with you and Matthew and John W,,,ahh shoot, just bring everyone who wants to come and we’ll make a weekend hog ”roast” out of it! For that matter, i just might break out the harmonicas, mandolins and fiddles. Anybody play any instruments?
Alright then, Mike, let’s have it laid out on the table. For you to actually beelvie that Yuri Nosenko was a bona fide defector, you would have to beelvie that Anatoliy Golitsyn was lying to the CIA. Since I am not convinced that you even know who Golitsyn is, why don’t you explain to me why it is that you beelvie that he was lying to the CIA. A detailed explanation would be a rebuttal of his CIA handler, Tennent H. Bagley, and the former head of counter-intelligence at the CIA, James Jesus Angleton, if you’ve ever heard of them.Tell me, Mike, how it is that you know that Golitsyn was lying to the CIA, that Nosenko was telling the truth, and that the Russian government positively had nothing to do with the death of Litvinenko.Mike, either you are out of your depth, or you are lying on behalf of very bad men.
A very good broadcast…ART CASHIN…over at K.W.N.
Thanks for the tip, Mr. Irish!
Big Al
Al, You tried hard to pin Rick down but he just could not pull the trigger to say definitely what his technical charts are telling him. Rick shows questions in his mind about his permabear outlook when it comes to gold and silver, by actually second guessing what his charts are telling him, now that is interesting.
Rick and Roger if you are reading this, I suggest you listen to and read through following link another technician who uses a rather interesting cycles interpretation from a medical training background.
David Gurwitz gives a very interesting technical prediction of the markets for next couple years, stating today that the silver bottom is likely in and will move positively into strong bull territory after moving about 32.4 +or-. The bull in silver will be followed a month later by gold, probably next May and June. The broader indexes will move down in next few months with minor rally in late summer to be followed by severe drop into 2013 and 2014 with Dow going possibly as low as 5,000.
Clay, as mentioned for the last few weeks, I believe we’re in a commodity melt-down most recently verified by copper breaking down. Interestingly, the recent data about China have shown a drop in their fuel imports. Europe is going to be very problematic and China is probably going to have a harder “soft landing” then predicted. The conventional stock markets are technically not looking good right now and this cyclical bull market is long in the tooth as compared for the average for ones in the past. I believe we’re at the beginnings of a significant cyclical bear market that will last months. I also believe the PMs will not decouple from the bear market but will fare a lot better then any other investment asset except for the bond market. I believe the conventional markets will minimally move down 20%. The key is to watch the % moves down for the PMs as compared to the conventional markets. I have a feeling they’ll hold up much better.
The real key, in my mind, Richard is how much collusion is there between the govt and the big boys/girls in the market. I would venture a guess that the degree is very high.
Big Al
HI Clay,
I don’t know squat about technicals, but common sense (Fundamentals) tells me that this will definitely be the case. Maybe not in such a predictable time frame, but it certainly will be the case!
Big Al
Link to Charles Nenner research is:
Clay and/or all,
What is your take on Nenner’s macro-theory that markets are completely technical and can be read on strictly an analysis he has “developed” and that NO macro-factor outside of this can effect it one way or another? I hope I articulated that correctly – but that’s what he repeated preaches – no?
All the best,
Marc
I have yet to see a human that has developed an analysis that is the “be all and end all” as far as accurately predicting on a consistent basis the movements of the markets. For awhile, a methodology may be quite accurate but eventually all of them are shown to be no better then any other.
Of course that has to be the case, Richard.
As mentioned above, if someone were that astute he/she would own the world by now!
Big Al
Exactly Richard!
Even John Bollinger said it best when he said something to the effect that : “You can have a system that is 100% accurate, 100% of the time, and still have someone loose.” How? Because SOMEONE will hesitate in a moment of fear or doubt and not react. This results in a losing trade. It all comes down to risk management, an individuals trading personality, etc.
Hi Richard,
I am not a technician. Wish I was, but am not. Something just struck me as I was reading the dialogue here related to technical trading theories or platforms. Your statement, “For awhile, a methodology may be quite accurate but eventually all of them are shown to be no better then any other”. Very interesting! I’m always trying to figure out WHY things happen, and WHY do people do what they do, (the science of human behavior) etc… From what you say, there seems to be a kind of ‘life cycle’ to theories generally, am I right? Perhaps, a new theory is born out of necessity, in an effort to increase one’s gains or productivity. If most investors are acting (in “herd” form) based on the signals of an older theory, then the new emerging theory would attempt to determine or anticipate what moves would be necessary to profit from what the herd is NOT doing. So, initially, the new model or theory is very effective, because so few people are using it. The herd, being predictable, initially makes those using the new theory very productive. But, as the new theory catches on and gets more popular(because it works so well and produces such strong results), and more and more of the members of the herd move from the old theory to the NEW theory, it begins to level off in terms of advantage because now more and more people are using it, and therefore it’s effectiveness is diminshed. Does this sound plausible as an explanation or am I ‘all wet’?
Marc: Glad you asked that question because the idea that the “facts follow technicals” which in what Nenner is saying in that technicals determines what the news will be. Nonsense.
From what I can understand, technicians are very disciplined in their approach similar to the discipline of soldier who always follows orders no matter what that order is. Soldiers are told this because in a campaign the chain of command must be strict to maintain order and sequence for gaining the strategy of command in winning. Officers are also trained for initiative when an opening for advancement or gaining the goal presents itself within certain criteria even when not receiving the order. But these officers are also told that taking initiative is very dangerous and often leads to court martial even if successful. So in a sense a technician who takes the initiative to look outside their box of orders and rules are likewise taking big risks, which is why Rick Ackerman like most technicians hate to consider fundamentals. But curiosity and intrigue often compel even the most ardent technician to take a peek outside the box, and paradoxically when they do find comfort in fundamentals supporting their technicals it can seduce them away from their technical discipline.
To be a really good technician, they must stay disciplined even to the point of being ignorant and blind to the world around them. If the markets miserable insanity and gore is a burden that interferes, best to let someone else take the fundamental initiatives and stick to technicals.
I wish to say however, that I am still looking and waiting for that one technician or Fundamentalist who has found a way to build a successful bridge between techncicals and fundamentals, a true Hari Seldon of Isaac Asimov legend. It will happen if not already.
This might wake some people up
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/xinhua/2012-04-21/content_5737303.html
And this!
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/20/us-jpmorgan-concentrates-idUSBRE83J1KS20120420
stay frosty people….stay REALLY frosty!
[…] Economic Report, Rick and Al Korelin discussed the uses and strengths of technical analysis. The audio for this interview can be heard here. The transcript is shown […]
BIG AL, YOU HAVE BEEN VERY HELPFUL TO ME, AND OTHERS, WITH YOUR ANALYSIS AND INTERVIEWS WITH JUNIOR SILVER/SOLD MINES. HOPEFULLY, IT WILL BECOME MORE OF A FOCUS ON YOUR SHOWS, AS YOU REALLY KNOW HOW TO GET TO THE INFO WE NEED IN OUR DECISION MAKING ON THE METAL MINERS. THANKS AGAIN FOR ALL YOU DO!
WYN
Hi Al, Clay, & all, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qbUhEoGVeiY Ellis Martin Report with Dr. Michael Berry and his son Chris Berry really interesting video/audio of market crowd vs group or guru strategy.
D.Brophy….thanks for the post…..ootb jerry
Hi again Al, Clay, & all, http://goldsilver.murdockcapital.com/2DrMichaelBerry.htm – This is another interesting video of graphs and figures concerning the future trends in gold/silver and where we are today and where we will be tomorrow and what countries are now at the top of the market and where will they be in the future at the bottom of the food change, so to speak.
Denis,
I am listening to that now as I write this…Hey, I don’t have to travel to watch this fantastic pro- Dr. Michael Berry! Thanks so much!
Benefit for Dave HillDinner/Silent auctionMarch 18 2pm-5pmVFW Post 5087 105 Railroad, Antwerp, OH 45813I would like thank evenoyre for all the thoughts and prayers for Dave Hill, we have along road ahead of us, he is in ICU right now and is on a ventilator and every thing is going to be a day by day thing. Dinner/Silent auctionWe are trying to raise money for his medical bills. If you could please help in anyway would be awesome we are also have a silent auction and taking donation for the auction if you could help if anyway.Tonia Brown260-440-4206
I appreciated Rick’s comment that his instinct is to be a perma-bear, and yet (and these are my words) he uses technical analysis to be objective, to try to remember that his personal views are just that – personal views and that the market (as with the rest of the economic system) may have a mind of its own.
This is something to keep in mind for all of us who are naturally inclined to be bearish (and I noticed Al you said that Europe is “falling is apart” which sounds pretty bearish.) But none of us can say with certainty the shape of things to come. This is important to remember. Of course, if you really adopt this kind of humility about the future, you will realize the need to hedge with things like gold and silver. And there is the rub- most people have not done this, they have not taken delivery of physical metal (especially silver). If they did so, the price could not stay where it is.