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Wednesday’s Thoughts on Gold

Big Al
April 25, 2012

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Discussion
28 Comments
    Apr 25, 2012 25:36 AM

    Big Al,
    Patience and macro-economics is the only thing that will keep us sane. Everything is just noise and a bunch of phooey. I discussed this with my family just last nite. I might even buy more physical and store it away. I think we will look back at this in the future and see that this was the biggest economic upheaval known to the western world. I really think the next thing is to stock up on water, canned foods, and other emergency essentials. This isn’t the “end of the world” baloney – I am just thinking there might be a elongated disruption of economic activity and commerce due to a “unwinding” and/or breakdown of the paper infrastructure way of doing business.
    All the best and hang in there – my friends!
    Marc
    PS. I am not scared at all. I am kinda excited for our future after the pain has worn off.
    NO PAIN -NO GAIN!

      Apr 25, 2012 25:23 AM

      Well Marc,

      That is very true about no pain – no gain!

      Regarding the concept of storing food, etc., I never thought I would say this but I agree with you.

      Big Al

    Apr 25, 2012 25:36 AM

    Wow the venture has dropped so far the S&P500 and the TSXV have the sme handle. 8 months ago the DJIA was a 1000 pts below the TSX now the DJIA is 1000 pts above the TSX. Imagine publicly stating that the conventional market will under perform. Possibly the worst call since 1999. Any long term investor knows that companies with no revenue tank going into recessions. It’s because they have to dilute shareholders to pay for advertising and salaries. Al the TSXV is going to 800.half your advertisers will be delisted within 18 months. Good thing you are not a registered IA your accounts would be down 50%. You would have made no commission and you would be fired by now.
    My fav thing about Roger is he is smart enough not to buy the companies he recommends. Never has to feel the pain of those who still listen.

      Apr 25, 2012 25:29 AM

      HI Kathy,

      I have to disagree with you completely.

      I buy the stocks I recommend (with proper notice to all of you) because I believe in them. I put my money where my mouth is. How many IA’s do that?

      The only companies that I accept as sponsors are companies that I know very, very well and a sponsorship fee for this site is miniscule. (Look at our disclaimer.)

      I am confident that none of our sponsors will be de-listed as you claim.

      Also, it is important to realize that the reason that I even have sponsors is because I have to pay other people. You see, I don’t sit and complain about unemployment for others, I create employment for others.

      How many people can say that?

      Thanks for your comment,

      Big Al

    Apr 25, 2012 25:17 AM

    Well,
    Some very interesting things today after the announcement from the FED. PMs got slapped but noticed how quickly (at least gold) came back. Silver has’t fallen below the $30 handle and remained there (at least not yet). But go and look at the mining producers. They are RISING, or at least not falling. Some broke through technical patterns days ago but haven’t dropped further. Right now, I have five miners that are RISING (@ 13:10 Eastern time) and others that are hovering but not collapsing. The explorers are a completely different story. Oil didn’t hardly flinch even AFTER IRAN SAID it “may consider” halting is uranium enrichment program. Copper – the same – holding very strongly.
    But the SURPRISE OF THE DAY was the U.S. Dollar! It i just sitting there! It should be rocketing higher considering what Bernanke stated and the news about the Netherlands, Holland and Dutch government. I honestly don’t think we are going to have a further drop in metals prices. This is option expiry day for the metals anyway, so I think that they were trying to keep the PMs below strike prices to help the shorts. This looks like a classic head fake like I spoke about yesterday. come Friday afternoon, the gold price should be rather surprising.

    stay frosty

    Apr 25, 2012 25:18 AM

    ouch! kathy we feel your pain because most of us are all in! like buffet says when blood is in the streets it’s time to buy. easier said then done though!!!

      Apr 25, 2012 25:34 AM

      I really don’t Mr. Jones.

      Here is why, people who lash out in anger are generally more angry at themselves than they are at the object of their anger.

      I simply do not have time anymore in my life for people like that!

      Big Al

      P.S. I also did not appreciate the comment about Trader Rog. The only reason he does not buy the stocks is because he does not want a conflict of interest. By the way, Roger does not charge the companies which he writes about. If after they are written up and published in his newsletter, the management wants to purchase reprint rights, they can do that. Trust me, some do and some don’t. That is a real credit to Trader Rog.

        Apr 25, 2012 25:54 AM

        You hit the nail on the head Big Al! But I also understand Kathy’s pain because I, myself was a victim of a lot of “cheer leading” type propaganda. However, I stated in the past on this blog that it was ALWAYS my fault for not doing my own research and due diligence.
        One of the things that people have to realize is that what Trader Rog says is HIS OPINION BASED ON HIS ANALYSIS and not investment advice, it is only an opinion. Individuals have to decide whether they want to take his opinion as some form of guidance, or as some form of information.
        Dr. Richard is one that I really like to read and listen to but I don’t agree with his analysis all the time. However, his opinions that he writes here have caused me to go back and review many of the things I have looked at, and I have to admit, when i researched what he said it did influence a few decisions because I found my own analysis flawed. That’s what I like. But, I still base my investing on what I find and not what others simply “tell me” to do. I really feel sorry for all those people out there who don’t know much about the PM markets or their associated mining companies. But one can NOT BE ignorant and expect to hold someone else responsible. If we can learn a skill in order to provide us with sustenance, then we ought to KEEP learning to protect what we earn and have.

        stay Frosty!
        p.s. Richard, I don’t think I will have to eat that pair of underwear.

          Apr 25, 2012 25:36 AM

          I don’t know about that Mark; I’m preparing the ketchup, mustard, and pickle relish. Howeve, what’s very interesting today is that with the pressure on the PMs, some of the precious metal stocks are up a little for the first time in weeks.

            Apr 25, 2012 25:43 AM

            Would you like for me to save you a slice? LOL!
            Yes, the pressure on the PMs should be SHOWING more negativity, as in downward prices, but currently they are not. However, that does not mean that tomorrow it can’t go lower. But I have to admit, this action is bullish! Great support here. Bottoms are usually never announced anyway, they just sort of creep up on ya. Is this the bottom for the miners? Don’t know. But I don’t think we will see the massive dive in the general markets until late Summer or Fall. A slow grind down with scary days – yes, but a collapse….not yet.

            Apr 25, 2012 25:33 PM

            Mark, I couldn’t agree more with you on your comment about the conventional markets not really diving until late summer/fall. I believe the general stock market will in “fits and starts” move down—-that’s characteristic of a cyclical bear market—it puts people to sleep and they don’t realize the carnage until weeks later.

    Apr 25, 2012 25:59 AM

    Hi Al & Roger, I don`t watch or listen to anything on the TV for some many years now, I really never liked GW Bush, so I only buy dvd`s, video`s and watch this type of stuff, what I get for news is from the internet, except going to town and listening to the radio. But just yesterday while listening to KGO an AM station only has news on it, while I was refining, that was a mistake, the news was the mistake, my what crap people must listen to on a regular basis know wonder why no one thinks we are in bad times after hearing what`s on the radio. According to them its a wonderful life – life in the liberal media, makes me hope for that super big crash coming soon to those jerks living in/on blessed paper(fiat money). If they only knew how bad it really was they would be buying a ton of silver and as much gold as they could carry, so to speak. When I sell my stuff(between 454 to say 900grams per lot) I buying between 100-200 ozs. of silver depending on whether its between $16,000 to $32,000 that I take in and the rest in gold for savings because cash is only a risk for the short term on the lot I`m sending in about a week. Banks and the gov`t are to close for comfort. Fascism is on the move in this country, big corporations dealing so close together with each other a real tight family. Found this on the internet, Yes, CISPA Could Allow Companies to Filter or Block Internet Traffic http://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2012/04/yes-cispa-could-allow-companies-filter-or-block-internet-traffic this is what Congress is looking to pass this week to control the internet and so many of the corporations are for it this time because they are off the hook for any liability issues because they seed over all the information for the gov`t to monitor. So a newer version of SOPA & PIPA are back. http://www.dailypaul.com/228380/ron-pauls-texas-straight-talk-4-23-12-oppose-the-internet… or just watch http://youtu.be/6RrEL7emqfk the gov`t wants to shut down the free speech of the internet here in America.

      Apr 26, 2012 26:43 PM

      Hi Al, update on CISPA Obama is opposed to this because of free speech has said he would veto if it came to his desk, well ITS election time. Plus the GOP wants it passed, yet Ron Paul is still against it because its against free speech and if passed could end free course of information, and corporations can use this information any way they want. So I guess the GOP & the Democrats are just one of the same NWO crowd.

    Apr 25, 2012 25:17 AM

    Well said Mark! There are many industry leaders involved in the precious metal (or any other) sector that truly believe in the sector and its potential. That is why they got involved in the industry in the first place. However, they now represent mining interests or make a living from selling newsletters or other products in the industry. Therefore their bias will tends to be positive, which can turn them into cheerleaders. Like a real estate agent, “now” is always the best time to buy. It is up to us as investors to look for opposing views and form our own opinion – and then take responsibility for our actions.

      Apr 25, 2012 25:51 AM

      Thank you, Madelene!

      Apr 25, 2012 25:57 PM

      Afternoon Madelene,

      I think that you will find our Weekend Edition to be of real interest for all the points you brought out above.

      Thank you for the comments!

      Big Al

    Apr 25, 2012 25:31 AM

    Silver is beginning to break down and we’ll see it at $28-$29. Gold will challenge its’ low in the upper $1500.00. This may not be the low but will be an interim good point at which to take metal positions.

    Apr 25, 2012 25:26 PM

    I’m a trader by nature but have learned so much from this site about the fundamentals of mining companies and some good ones to invest in. My mining portfolio is down a bunch. However, I trade around it when companies get oversold and sell on rallies. I am getting excited about what I see on my charts. The miners have been oversold on my daily, weekly and monthly charts. In fact, my monthly stochastics indicator is as low now as it was at the bottom in 2009. Also my emotional fear and disgust have reached new levels. I use that as a contrary indicator that it is time to buy. There has been a positive divergence in the daily stochastics since March 1st and the volume off the lows is strong. I dipped my toes in the water this week back into the miners. Gold looks like it is in a typical consolidation to me. I bought some in december and this month. I like to buy when its on sale and will gladly stock up some more if there is a better sale in a few months!

      Apr 25, 2012 25:33 PM

      Magdalene, you’re very correct. I almost pulled the trigger on some mining stocks today. I’m getting close. I believe we’ll see some weakness yet in the PMs so what could be the catalyst for the miners? I believe it could be oil. I believe right now that oil is ready for a move down. If that happens, the miners margins will improve even more. We’ll know in the next 3-4 weeks if oil breaks lower—-according to my charts.

        Apr 25, 2012 25:00 PM

        Richard and Magdalene,
        Great input…thanks so much!
        All the best,
        Marc

          Apr 25, 2012 25:46 PM

          My sentiments exactly!

          Big Al

    Apr 25, 2012 25:47 PM

    The paper market is still controling the gold price, but it cannot last. Also an important issue is that China is buying oil from Iran using gold.

    Apr 25, 2012 25:58 PM

    Madelene,

    Welcome to our family!

    Your comments are both astute and certainly appreciated.

    Best to you,

    Big Al

    Apr 25, 2012 25:10 PM

    A REALLY GREAT interview over at Russia Today. James Turk lays it out regarding the US dollar and gold. And oh yeah…the host isn’t bad looking either.

    http://rt.com/programs/capital-account/james-turk-collapse-oil/

      Apr 25, 2012 25:59 PM

      Mark A.,
      Just listened to the whole program. Thanks again really enjoyed James Turk!
      And, yes, Lauren is quite a “healthy looking” young lady. Plus, she seems on top of her questions and in control of the pace of the interview. Great show!
      All the best,
      Marc

      Apr 25, 2012 25:20 PM

      Okay, I’ll just blame Marc for making me listen AND watch the whole program. Clever move by RusskiTV to employ the all-American Lauren, but I still prefer Margaret Brennan’s calmer voice — oh, or Big Al’s, or Roger’s, of course!

        Apr 26, 2012 26:16 PM

        Hey, you know what impeachemall…
        I completely agree with you!! I don’t know if it is her “girl next door appearance” you know, cute, but not showy – plus she dresses real “plain” for her line of work – I love that, too. I don’t know – she just comes off real credible…now would I take her investment advice…heck, no! She is still MSM! Ha, ha…probably a “paper” pusher!
        All the best,
        Marc

    Apr 25, 2012 25:47 PM

    What man,

    You guys saying Big Al is not good looking?

    You are clearly age discriminating.

    I am calling my attorney!

    Big Al