From Washington D.C. – Finally get a moment to respond to comments!
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I will try to bring Larry on the program on Monday. I don’t have the right equipment to do telephone interviews with me.
My initial investment, which I still have, was $10K.
Big All
Big al great comments! This is so similar to the fall of 2008 with everybody saying “buy now” no wait ” now is really the time to really buy” ” the bottom is in for sure this time”. But the prognosticators got it way wrong and alot of people went in too big and lost alot of money. like you said back then…this is a great time to buy stock. Not because the bottom is in, but because if you are not margined and can wait, the price is eventually going to go way up!! The fundamentals in the long view demand it. Will gold drop from these levels in the next 90 days?….maybe. Will gold fall off the cliff like it has and then just stay at those levels for the next year or more? No way! It’s all about perspective and the discipline to keep your buying and selling in synch with that perspective. Ok, enough philosophy bla bla. The bottom line big Al is that I believe you are correct that this is a great time to buy with the understanding that it could still get worse before it gets better.
JON good points, & i must agree.
Thank you, Mr. Irish, for being politically correct with this great comment!
Big Al
Oh man, I just bit my tongue which was in my cheek!
Big Al
Thanks Jon,
Yep, that is the way I feel.
Big Al
Hi Al,
I appreciate your openess with all the differences of opinion and your reach in managing all the comments.
Just food for thought, I feel that many on the site are so fixated on the daily gyrations of gold and silver and trying to “time” the market. We’ve all heard it before that trying to read the crystal ball will do nothing but qualify one to eat crushed glass. It’s impossible.
There is large physical buying and short covering on gold and silver right now. For the physical silver fence sitters, there will be a day when investment supply will be non existant. That day I believe is getting near. Even JPM will hold onto their Silver inventory via State Street now that they are under the microscope for their naked shorts. I am really surprised that the Silver community hasn’t really picked up on this. Buying the SLV will not cut it in exchange for the physical. If investors think they own Silver or Gold, for that matter, via the ETF’s, they really own nothing.
It will be heartbreaking for those who know the Macro Economic story and think they own gold or silver, then can’t get any when investment supplies dry up.
That day I believe is sooner than we think.
For what it’s worth.
David
HI DAVID………..As i have been saying here, & to my friends & family……..If you have some money you DONT need to spend, for a couple of years….Buy Physical Gold & Silver, put it somewhere safe, & forget about it. In the event you have an emergency , & you need the cash, then the metals are quite simple to sell. I prefare to own Silver.
David,
In my humble opinion – excellent comments..I think you are spot on!
All the best,
Marc
David
I would rephrase your words just a smidgen. Yes, there is LARGE buying but only from big investors and sovereigns. The small man and some well-to-do are puking their gold up like it is the plague. The pawn and coin shops over in the big city are having lines of people puking up their silver and gold coins. I’d say that is as contrarian as you can get.
Your comment is worth a lot, David!
Big Al
I AM CALLING FOR A BOTTOM TODAY…….FO^OL….
JERRY i’m calling a middle………..does that mean i’m hedging like JP MORGAN ?
No Irish!
If you were hedging like JPMorgan, you would not be calling the middle; you would be calling the Federal Reserve to see if they could bail you out.
ha…a funny one….bravo….plus sad but true!
MARK..Thanks for putting me straight , I’ a bit slow when it comes to these things,…so does that mean, that the next time i get arrested for being drunk & disorderly i can just call the FED. RES. & they will bail me out ? COR BLIMEY…thats great.
Nope Irish
The next time you get arrested for being drunk and disorderly, you call the President because his uncle seems to be a master regarding things like that…OOooops 🙂
Irish,
You crack me up….big time…DAMN…I am beginning to sound like a broken record…or is it a “broken” promise…i.e. fiat currency…you too, Jerry.
Hi Robert 213, I agree you must be careful with people who call tops and bottoms but we have a couple of College Guys on this site, who are Irishtony and Jerry O^OTB and they are always chasing “TOPS AND BOTTOMS”.
HI SHAWN…you wanna be in our gang ?
Hi Tony, I would like to join your College Gang as long as I don’t have to become a frat boy and endure a hazing ceremony.
OH i dont know SHAWN….it’s ok with me ….but that JERRY is a stickler for tradition.
shawn….we will forgo the cattle iron…..but, the rest of the tradition must be upheld…
Hey Jerry and Irish,
If I got the cattle iron, by gummie, he’s got to get it too. Don’t let him off so easy!
Double funny…one…what’s going on here?…not only are you guys all highly intelligent…frickin great senses of humor….right on!
without a sense….there is no cents….
except the smell
That would be a sense of odor.
“tops and bottoms”….is that what I think it is? remember irish and ole out of the box,
are like Al…”.old farts.”
My wife accuses me of being a “bottom squeezer”,,,,,of the toothpaste that is. And I’m not even an ol’ fart, at least not quite yet.
Thanks for the comments Big Al and appreciate all the responses. Enjoy Alexandria!
Al,
Your final comment says it all. “I am trying to take a couple of days off…..but I can’t let this go!”
Your problem Al is you have studied too much.
You understand the entitlements the city that rose from the swamp creates is the bread
and our lazy entertainment filled lifestyles are the circus.
You understand what is important!
A few things to notice while you are there.
1) How everything seems to be paid for;
This one you cannot miss for trying:
2) How the Washington Monument has to shades of stone…..because back in the day they ran out of funding….instead of deficit spending they stopped construction…. the corner stone was laid in 1848 and the capstone not until 1884…..by the time they got back to work the stone secured was from a different part of the quarry…thus the noticeable unintentional bi-color monument to our first President.
3) A less traveled monument……My favorite is the Jackson Monument in Layfayette Park…bets were taken on when the monument would fall over because it was the first to depict a horse rearing as such….when unveiled the artist actually climbed on the horses front risen front legs to demonstrate the statues stability…..the not a friend of the Banksters President’s statue has been there ever since.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jcolman/441002583/
I meant two (2) shades
dennis ……thanks for the photo…….A J….IS THE MAN….
The history buff & Andrew Jackson fan may find these tid bit intersting about the artist:
I found this looking for the tid bit about Mills planking on the front legs at the unveiling to demonstrate stability….I did not find that source but I found this….think about it:
One of Mills’ works is located in President’s Park, also known as Lafayette Square, which is situated on the north portico side of the White House. The statue of Andrew Jackson was unveiled January 8, 1853. It was a Saturday on the 38th anniversary of the Battle of New Orleans, and according to an account by a reporter for the Washington Union, twenty thousand people attended in and around the park. Senator Stephen A. Douglas was the keynote speaker at the unveiling. There are two other castings in New Orleans, and Nashville, Tennessee.[5]
Beginning in 1860, the Statue of Freedom, which sits atop the United States Capitol, was cast in five main sections by Mills, whose bronze foundry was located on the outskirts of Washington.[
the above from wiki …… So on the 38th Anniversery of The Battle of New Orleans Andrew Jackson’s memorial was unveiled to 20,000 people….5 years after the ribbon cutting on The Washington Monument and 31 years before the first President’s Monument was finished.
And make no mistake The Battle of New made him famous but The Battle with the Central Bank made him loved.
thanks….Dennis….nice bit of history…
Hi Dennis,
Ditto with JerryO^OTB. Love the historical perspective!
Thanks mucho,
Link to a photo of the Washington Monument showing the two shades of stone.
The shade shift occurs at about the 150 foot level of the 555 foot monument.
http://www.ctgop.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/1the-washington-monument.jpg
The partially built monument stood not half complete during the Civil War and when Lincoln was shot. Can you imagine dignataries from places far off coming to our nations capitol and seeing the half built structure (like a half built house that had financing pulled).
They might of asked…..”What is that?”to be answered by…..”That is the Washington monument but we ran out of money.” Ask yourself which is better. 1) To not promptly finish something you started…..or 2) recognizing your limitations.
BTW Dennis M. is not the complaining party referenced in this Daily Insight
MOODY’s have just downgraded 16 Spanish banks by 1-3 notches…..FITCH downgrades Greece/s credit ratings from b to ccc………things are not getting any better.
Irish………….just buy facebook and forget about Europe….insolvent banks…insolvent countries…..lighten up and get some Friends!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
DENNIS……..lighten up & get some friends!!!!!!!!!!!!!!……facebook..nice one DENNIS
Heck IRISH….B TO CCC , LOOKS LIKE AL’S COLLEGE GRADES….
Those are better than mine 🙁
Only old people understand letter grades!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Are you callin me old Mr. Dennis?
Enough Facebook already!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Whatever happened to Groupon and Zynga?
I think they both had a run in with the TSA
Al:
Recently, on one of your interviews, you criticized someone for saying they would not vote in the upcoming presidential election. I certainly agree with you as every American has a responsibility to exercise their right to vote. You also have said, more than once, that you would “write in” Ron Paul’s name on your ballot if he is not the Republican candidate. Do you really think that is wise? Don’t you feel that the most important thing is to have a change in the White House? The incumbent will be a formidable foe for whomever he runs against. In my humble opinion, the only way to beat Obama is for Republicans and Conservatives to stay united. A “write in” vote for Ron Paul may make a voter feel better but, it is also a lost opportunity to help defeat Obama.
Clark,
For what it used to be worth I am in complete agreement with you and I am a Ron Paul supporter. (convert)
Hi Jerry M and Clark,
I agree with you!
I might as well throw my 2 cents in here too. I am strongly oriented towards logic and critical analysis. Can’t help it. Drives my wife crazy.. Give me a problem and all I want to do is fix it. So, when it comes to trying to decide what to do in a particular situation, I find it is critical to define what my ultimate objective is first. In this case, it has to be to remove the horrendous “O” from the People’s House, and replace him with someone who is better(not perfect) for America. Would I like to see RP in there. Sure, but quite honestly, from a mathematical and probability standpoint, I don’t see where he has a shot of winning. Now today, Rasmussen, considered to be the most fair and objective(that’s not sayin’ much)polling org., just came out with their latest poll results and are showing Romney with a 9 point favorability edge over ‘O’. That is quite significant at this early stage. I think any reasonable, thinking person has to conclude(barring some unforseen cataclysmic event) that Romney offers us the best chance at unseating the current petty dictator. So, IMHO, what we need to do is, try to put emotion and blind passion aside and leverage our votes for the greatest good we can do with them. If people stay home and don’t vote, it is a forfeiture that nets Obama a statistical advantage. If people vote for someone who has no chance of winning, they end up aiding the other side as well. We have to ask ourselves, “Are we at a point in history where we can afford to be careless and slipshod with our vote?” Is it more important for me to feel self-righteous and superior to everyone else because I can say, “I voted my conscience”, or is it the smart thing to do to “hold your nose” if you have to, but vote for a candidate who at least 1) is not a Communist, 2) doesn’t hate America, 3) is an American citizen, 4) does have business and economic experience, and 5) doesn’t eat his dog!
This is not a hard choice. Eliminate the emotion, define the goal, and then doing the right thing is easy to figure out.
General Norman H. Schwartzkopf said, “We always know the right thing to do. The hard part is doing it.”
“Wisdom is knowing what to do”
“Skill is knowing how to do it”
“Virtue is doing it”
Let’s do the right thing this November!!!
nice reply….c..hero
In my opinion romney is an obama clone and to change to him will be no change at all.
I believe an informed patriotic american Must write in RP if he wants to continue looking himself in the mirror. To me, not to vote RP could actually be a treasonable act. Arguably anyway.
Hi benb,
I have to respectfully disagree. OK, I’m on my soapbox, I know. I understand your strong feelings and your noble desire to see someone run who really embodies true conservative and fiscally responsible convictions, that match our own. The funny thing is that no two people would ever be able to completely agree on someone on everything, so it will always require some compromise,(Oooooh, that dirty word) But, I mean, really, are you saying that Romney isn’t significantly different and better than Obama? Not perfect by any means, and not who I prefer, but certainly better than what we have now!! Don’t throw in the towel. We’re not done yet. The next President may have to replace 3 Supreme Court justices, one or two of which are conservative. This is a huge deal, and I would much rather have Romney selecting them than “O”! And we need to take the Senate and maintain the House. We’ve got a lot of work to do, and our vote is one of the last tools of liberty that we have. We’ve got to use it to our maximum advantage!
Best to you
Never in my 72 years of life have I seen confusion! The Greeks are about to fall in a financial hole, only to be rescued by the ECB and Fed Reserve, downgraded to CCC (should be fff), their banks are failing, banks in the EU are facing desperate
measures, Spain, Portugal and soforth are in dire straights, etc. and everyone is rushing out to buy the dollar??? Most are bailing out of gold, Louise Yamada of LYA Advisors is calling for $20 silver and $1300 or less gold, and China is loading up their tractor trailors with the yellow stuff….what an absolutely insane world. It appears today may have been something of a true bottom for the yellow/silver stuff….hopefully! Perhaps the panic is much closer than we think???
With this continued drop in the DOW and a turnaround in “our precious stuff”
will mining stocks continue south or is there a turnaround for us in the chaos?
wyn
wyn……The whole world has gone BONKERS….up is down & down is up every thing is back to front, where does it all end….the fundamental’s have gone out the window, the charts are no longer trustworthy………..One might as well just flip a coin.
Hello Irishtony,
You’re so right!!!
The world is nuts. That’s why we can’t put our trust in the world, in people, in gov’ts, in systems, and really in anything earthly. All things and all people will at some point fail you, let you down and disappoint. We are all ‘fallen’……BUT….there is an ANSWER, and there is HOPE!!!
Best of health to you my friend,
Wyn.
You my friend are absolutely right. FYI, just got back from a walk and up the road is a really nice WW2 veteran and his wife. Ran into him and we chitchatted. I gave him my card, just in case of an emergency (it was not a business call in any way shape or form) – or what-have-you. He looked at it and just in passing said my wife has ALL of the money in a credit union. Whatever, sounds like trouble to me…..Louise Yamada is “out to lunch” if that is her view. I guess she is a highly regarded tech analysis person. Let’s see if her analysis can override the eastern behemoth fast approaching on the horizon. Like I said before, with gold – all you have to do is watch Chindia and watch the central bankers….follow the yellow brick road. Long term it doesn’t get much easier than that.
All the best,
Marc
Howdy Mr. Harter
I think that the miners are going to do what the miners do. I don’t see anything that would boost them dramatically until the PMs begin rising consistently and we can get back to $1650 + gold and $32+ silver. There is going to be a lot of chop until a true base is formed and that could take weeks if this is truly the bottom in the metals. Only quality producers and preferably junior producers with lots of cash and low costs are where you want to consider being if you are looking at miners.
wyn,
Great comments. I hope the turnaround comes soon!!!!!!
You are absolutely right Irishtony….keep your gold/silver safe.
wyn
Yes IRISH…DO WHAT wyn says….ship the rest of your silver and gold over to me so I
can keep the inventory straight….
Hey JerryO^OTB,
If you need any help with that, I’ve got an underground “safe zone”, code word for bunker. Uh, Oh, I’m probably on the gov’t watchlist now.
C…YOU ARE SAFE, I HAVE IT FROM AN INSIDE SOURCE…..
Thank you bro. I’ll sleep better tonight. 🙂
I had someone email me this audio link regarding bank runs going on in Europe..
I haven’t heard of Pastor Lindsey Williams..but might be of interest to our informed group here…then again:)
Hey Steve
Uhhhhhhhh…..I don’t think I would put much weight into what Lindsey Williams says. He has said things in the past that have REALLY screwed people. I know he associates a lot with the Alex Jones Show (who I don’t listen to). But it is also not difficult to turn on the television and “expand” on what the media is saying.
Mark A.
You make a lot sense. I don’t know about that guy. He is entertaining to listen to sometimes but, I wouldn’t sell the family house and move to timbuktu because he said the elite told him to tell us to…gold and silver make sense to me because of the macro-economics. Not some elitist agenda.
Marc
Have faith. Even the elitist snobs WILL screw up also. They may just limit their downside a little. They held off on the JPM fraud until the sell in May time for a reason. This will be THE platform for PMs to launch.
Dan
Hi steve, lindsay takes forever to say anything. This one has him coming up with numbers of exposure some banks have.
But this is nothing new, First i heard of this was Mr Moriarity a couple years back when he said there is eough debt in the system to shut down every bank on the planet in the blink of an eye due to the derivitive market.
Lots of people mentioning since then. This is one reason people want gold and silver
and some currency in the house.
Hello Big Al! I hope you’re enjoying D.C. The wife and I used to live in Arlington, just moved further out. Based on the trends I see, I’m glad we did!
BOTTOMS
1)The bottom will not be in until the manipulation no longer works. Why is it so difficult for people to understand what Fiat Money Is, what it does and how it is used. How many trillions of dollars are out there being used to manipulate markets, banks, currencies you name it? Can anyone say minimum of 1,000 trillion fiat dollars, because that is what it is.
2) What has all this fiat money produced? Where does the US, Europe, UK and Japan go from here? What have these politicians and central bankers done and what are they going to do? 100% of Nothing is exactly the same thing as 0% of Everything, but many people in these countries don’t believe it.
I can tell everyone on this page a fact that will happen should they live for another 5 years. The fact is in about 5 years everyone will measure their wealth in what real things they have and not anything that is guaranteed in Euros, Dollars, Pounds or Yen. The worlds biggest bubble in history is all the derivatives and fiat money based promises, because 100% of nothing is 0% of everything.
Heard an estimate recently, can’t remember where now, that global derivative debt could be as high as a quadrillion bucks. Who really knows.
READ THE SAME ARTICAL…..,is it the one who said…they did not want to use the word quadtrillion,,,,and said 700 trillion sounded better….just so that people would not get excited….thinking about the number..
Yeh, probably so. You know O^OTB, 700T sounds a lot better than 1Q, NOT! I can’t get my head around either of those numbers, I mean, heck, I only have 10 fingers, well, actually 8, since thumbs don’t count, technically. It’s nuts, as Irish said. Get that cattle iron hot. I’m in the mood for some “carne asada”, or cat will do too. 🙂
YES CLAY YOU ARE CORRECT…..
IRISH AND I HAVE DECIDED TO PLACE OUR””BOTTOMS””ON OUR GOLD,
MAN THAT IS COLD STORAGE….
I agree, another good comment from Clay. And he notes the problem…fiat money hasn’t collapsed YET (because we don’t have that quadrillion in circulation YET), and until it does, the games will continue. So don’t be surprised with gyrations in the price of metals.
As for that quadrillion figure, much of it will be written down, the rest will be paid-off with inflated money. Of course, a loaf of Wonderbread will cost $280 in order for that to happen.
John W.,
Boy, you are sooo right!
Clay,
I think the last paragraph pretty much sums it up in a nutshell. Heck, 1 and 2 aren’t bad either, my friend :).
Marc
Kudos on being the only investing website where I have ever heard the phrase “Do your own thinking”. I am still in the process of formulating my own investment system, but I would LOVE to see which books about investment you would list in your personal “Top 10” (or Top 5). Perhaps Trader Rog, and your guests could also submit their “Top 10”, and you could make it a section on this website ( perhaps it could fit neatly under the “Business Talk Panel” link )
Anything about market psychology like “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and Madness of Crowds” by Charles Mackay
Mass Psychology…………James Dines
I agree with Dennis on Jesse Livermore. There are other great suggestions too, but I think understanding his style is important for today.
ditto….jwr
“investment psychology explained” by Martin pring
Look up Jesse Livermore….How to Trade in Stocks
Will you lot STOP using the BOTTOM word, it makes it very difficult for me to concentrate………Thank you.
BOTTOM.. BOTTOM ..BOTTOM ..BOTTOM ..BOTTOM
TOP…TOP..TOP.TOP..TOP
OBAMA..OBAMA..OBAMA..OBAMA
MARK A ……Thats it…you have just turned me into a cabbage….it was that word O..i cant bring my self to say it …that last word.
B..O..T….T….O…M…….Barry Obama The Twit Of Month……BOTTOM…..
At our trading-training class in Tempe Az on 4-26-12 we suggested our favorite books lists and demonstrated our proprietary trading systems. The show was recorded and will be offered for sale on CD’s and produced in a new book we hope to have out this fall. We are technical traders and are moving toward faster swing trades and more futures as the year goes on. American Manganese is our Miner of the Week and in that story we review exactly what happened and the current situation. Again learn and read and make your own decisions; we like and support AMY. Our recommended list is going shorter for many reasons and we are doing a revamp in Trader Tracks to better address these changing markets. Traderrog
As Larry Reigh would say… “Do the Math!”
Hi Al, I know you`re quite busy right now but could you bring Larry Reaugh on the show to discuss the PFS of American Manganese Inc. In my opinion he has some explaining to do. The “initial” capex quadrupled from around a 100M to almost half a billion dollars. And the margin seems 4x`s lower. What do you think? Keep up the good work. And by the way what was your investment in AMY?