The rally predicted by James Turk and Trader Rog might be here!
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Al, I hate to be a wet blanket but the momentum indicators are still to the downside but as we move down it’ll in all likelihood be gradual.
Al:
I have to agree with the good Doc. Long term I’m comfortable with the PMs but I’m sitting on the sidelines until after the elections or until and unless we see a trend change.
Morning Dai Uy,
We will see. As I have said I do not begin to understand fundamentals.
Big Al
Al,
“As I have said I do not begin to understand fundamentals.”
We all know you meant technicals. You’re Mr. Fundamental.
Big confused Al stands corrected.
Thanks,
Big Al
Ah, Singin’ in the Rain. When I was an undergraduate, I vltonueered as a projectionist for a student film society that showed lots of classic movies, and Singin’ in the Rain was one of the ones I projected. I went around humming Good Morning for weeks afterward. And the dancing! Time to watch that one again, and Gigi I love The Night They Invented Champagne. And I’ll check out all of you guys’ other recommendations as well. I’m envisioning a movie-musical weekend sometime when the move is over and my life is less frenzied.
Watching movies like you mentioned Yesica will make you life less stressful. Certainly not the case with many of today’s movies!
Big Al
HI Richard,
I am not the prettiest baby in the nursery and if I am wrong the world will not end. I am simply giving my opinion.
As of today, it looks like I am wrong in this instance.
Best to you Doc!
Big Al
Tops and bottoms are hard to call like Roger does unless you are sitting on a beach in Ft. Lauderdale during spring break wit Q cards that are rated from one to ten.
I completely agree with you Shawn,
I am talking about trends and not necessarily tops and bottoms.
Best,
Big Al
Hi Al,
Just to start an uproar 🙂 What would happen if things got so bad that the governments got together and said that we were all going to go to a cashless currency? Everyone has to take a mark(you know where I’m going with this). What would happen to gold and silver at that point? Thanks, Tom
Hi Tom,
Very interesting question.
My personal belief is that the action by govts that you mentioned will not happen. Maybe in the future, but I hope and pray it will not.
We will certainly see,
Big Al
I don’t agree with Mr. Turk or Trader Rog, sorry. Gold would have to rally above $1650 and close above that price for three days BEFORE I would call it a “possilbe” trend reversal.
Monthly chart momentum oscillators showing more pressure to the downside. Go take a look at the MACD on a monthly chart and then tell me we are reversing. I do believe we will still trade within a range that favors the downside more than upside.
stay frosty
Mark, I am not drinking the KoolAid either……….the daily noise of ups and downs are unstable, the trend is still down, like you say we need to see at least 3 days over 1650 prior to taking a small sip.
smart thinkin there Bobby!
I hope people don’t think of me as a gold bear because I’m not. Gold has a long way to go and I can see the price MUCH higher than its September 2011 peak.
stay frosty!
Agreed…
Stay frosty…..I am “cold as ice”…my friend..so is foreigner…..because they are my “jukebox heroes”……might as well have fun. 🙂
Marc
HI Marc,
If you don’t have fun you have nothing!
Big Al
Mark A,
I am not making excuses. I am saying that my perspective is long term as yours is.
Best,
Big Al
Mark,
I am not a gold bear either, heck, I am ALL IN, but we are experiencing some really unusual times. I believe gold should be going up, the market does not and the market is always right. I am a fundamentalist as well and not cycle driven or a technician, I do however believe that the powers to be have a lot more influence than most give them cridit for.
Bobby
Hi Bobby,
Depending on who you define as “the powers to be” you could very well be correct.
Big Al
A lot of folks on this site are in complete agreement with you Mark A.
Maybe in my case, it is wishful thinking. From my fundamental perspective, I don’t see it going any other way.
Big Al
Hi Mark A,
Sounds like you’re using IBD’s system of follow-throughs and 3-10 days to confirm trend reversals? I like IBD and William O’Neil a lot and have done quite well with their CANSLIM. Roger uses his variation of Elliot Wave, which confirms in a different way. They’re just different systems, with different entry points. It would be interesting if they were both back-tested over a few decades to check how well they correlate.
Anyways, I was moved to comment just to caution anyone reading from making the mistake I did a few years ago which was to blend indicators from different investing systems. Pick one system and do not use indicators from another as “additional proofs”…it doesn’t work!!!!!!!!
P.S. Al will like this, but the best investing system for me personally is value investing, where I buy based on extreme value with a margin for error, with a long period. In almost all cases, those picks made money, and usually within 6-12 months, even though I had anticipated holding forever. It’s nice to use technical analysis for entry and exit points, particularly when obvious patterns like blow-off tops or railroad tracks appear — you get to hold onto those end-of-cycle gains so much better. But the value investing was the key, winning concept for me.
Yep John W,
I do like that!
Big Al
down to 1570 today roger….no Rally yet.. Your always predicting UP UP UP and rallys. While the reality is down down down….silver under 27. Trend since March, since you have been predicting Rally… and I have been saying down trend because … Sell in May followed by summer doldrums… Gold Down 150 and silver downaround 12. RALLY??? Maybe after the elections we will get A REAL RALLY
HI Reo,
What makes this site great is all of you. Differing opinions are what make life interesting.
Best to you,
Big Al
, I’m currently wiknorg on the last week of a 4 week group project which has been a real eye opener for me. I have honestly never had such a good learning experience while wiknorg in a group in person or online. The reason for this is the following:1. It has been made clear what was expected of all the students at any given time. We have detailed lessons schedules that describe what the leader for that week is to do, and what the other students will be responsible for.2. Students review and edit each others work, going back and forth until its right. Our grade depends on each other doing well, so we’re encourage to teach each other.3. The class is about learning, so everyone actually does much of the same work, we review each others work within a discussion thread and file dropbox. We then work to agree on the combination of results we want to submit each week. Our conversation is reviewable by the instructor, so they know who’s done what.4. Admittedly, there are times when it’s faster to have a synchronous conversation. We use Skype, and one team member takes notes to submit a general summary of what was discussed to the threaded discussion area so that instructors can track that as well.5. The instructors are VERY involved in reviewing our discussions, piping in when it seems appropriate. And honestly, this is the main difference I’ve seen in the Penn State Program, and the reason it’s won national level awards the instructors are available to their students every single day. If they’re going to be traveling, they let us know. They don’t have to show up and teach a lecture, but they do answer discussions and emails within 24 hours, and typically within hours. This is a lot of work, but it is what makes their program professional, and recommendable.
HI Rona,
Great idea to utilize Sype conversations.
Big Al
Once again the CDNX is sinking and taking gold and silver stocks with it. It broke through the 1200 mark and is heading down to 1100 or lower. Listen to many but follow none. Stocks are a bad investment now.
Dan
Hi Dan,
I remember back in 08 and 09 I was buying stocks and then in 10 I was selling. 2010 turned out to be one of the most profitable years I have ever had.
What can I say?
Big Al
Good trading for you Al. I think these things have a while to fall yet. PM stocks are burning matches that will take your trading account down with them. They should be going up on profit margin alone with the price of oil so low. This, to me predicates more down side.
Dan
Hi Dan,
Very possible. I just do what I do.
Big Al
In our view, the current rally is a modest one but it is a rally; that should prevent any more major danger to the down side for gold and silver. Silver hit the basement floor within 1.5 cents of my call which was just a former super bottom. We like silver to $38 as a minimum on September futures, as the summer moves on. After the current smaller PM rally the next one should have more power. Its top and size will depend upon what the PPT does in the last quarter to protect the current administration’s election outcome. – Traderrog
Though obvious, it bears repeating..it also depends on black swans, which in today’s environment could be any white swan in disguise. Cypress asked for bailout money today. Spain is doing lousy, even after their bailout was agreed to. So sure, I think a rally in gold after the election or 2013 is a good chance. But it’s also a good chance to happen sooner, and I’m not sure waiting for $100 more downside to gold is worth waiting if it potentially means lost $200 upside potential.
Someone replied to a post I made recently about how I was going to be tricked into selling at the bottom for stocks. Where is this bottom? Look at the CDNX chart… Ugly with MACD rolling over!
Dan
Al, I’m afraid Trader Rog’s wave 1 is going to take him into the under-tow.
Morning Doc,
Very possible. I will have a Daily Editorial on this subject with Rick Ackerman.
Big Al
1, look at the sentimentrader indicators – everyone in the market is waiting for Europe, especially now that George Soros has said the Euro succeeds or fails by this weekend. 2, comex opex was today so obviously gold and silver prices went silly over the past few days.
India will have a bumper rice crop and good wheat crop this year, and Indian farmers buy 10% (!!!!) of world gold. Meanwhile a big part of silver demand is solar power and batteries, and solar seems to have bottomed while batteries will always do well.
So outside of a liquidity collapse like 2008, there’s no reason for gold and silver to go down from here by much.
Of course I am as scared as anyone else. But so is the market. Sucks to live in interesting times eh?
The BIS (Central Bank of Central Banks) and its satellites (Fed, IMF, WB, etc) started classifying gold as a Class a security. The Fed is floating the idea but will adopt it.
The take downs in gold at any all reasons for the last several months has been in anticipation of this announcement, preparing for a re-map of the Euro and to initiate herding of the “Cats” (Central Allied Trading Schemes) under the BIS to accommodate coordinated money printing. Tough job for these bankers as they have come to hate each other at same time being more dependent.