Big Al and Rick Ackerman opinine of gold again!
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Today is Stephanie’s (our youngest daughter) birthday. Kathy and I are headed up to Vancouver to help her celebrate. More Daily Editorials to follow tomorrow.
As always, a huge thanks for all the education you are giving me on our forum!
You John W are definitely our kind of person also. Thanks!
Big Al
Everything about the fundementals are already in the price. The price is the ultimate indicator on what the fundementals are saying. For whatever reason gold (and silver) are not behaving the way we would expect them to behave. A new driver is clearly needed now – whether that is QE or a Eurozone crakup. Until then gold is treading water at best. Will I sell my gold and silver? No. But I fear $1900 gold and especially $48 silver are not going to happen again for a long long time. Hope I’m wrong, but the charts (and I am not a technical trader) are clear to see. Soros says Europe has three days and stocks are still up and gold is down. Strange. Until investors stop running to the $ for safefty there is no need for more QE. Until the election nothing is going to happen. If Obamacare is rolled back and Romney gets in that might change everything, perhaps this is what is already being priced in?
James –
The tension is building every day, but the price action in gold and silver does not yet reflect the powder keg that we all sit upon. The election is 5 months away and that looks like an eternity. I really doubt that the fireworks will not go off until then.
The margin for error in the governments successful deferral of this potentially disastrous economic clusterf**k has shrunk to an intolerable wafer thin level of cushion. Just a little more inattention by the governing parties are going to set-off a cascading spiral of events that may be impossible to stop. The happy chatter that Greece is too small to matter is just that.
Remember that our banks have been very busy selling credit default swaps on sovereign debt (Greece bonds, Italian bonds, Spanish bonds, et al) and interest rate swaps (to effectively suppress the rise of interest rates on U.S. debt) to anyone dumb enough to think that we would collect (even though they might be on the right side of the bet). The amount of contracts that the banks have sold are numbingly astronomic. Unless there is a coordinated effort by the parties involved (U.S. Euroland, Japan) with a stunning amount of economic firepower, the Ponzi scheme ends a lot sooner than a lot of people thought.
James, do you think Dec this year or next Jan is a long time? It’s very possible, things could turn around about then, after the elections. I doubt Romney will win, I think he will give up like McCain did and not really try that hard to win.
HI James C,
I can’t agree with you regarding the upcoming election.
I don’t think that McCain gave up, I think that the party did!
It made a huge mistake.
Big Al
Hi James,
I truly don’t get it!
Maybe people just are not willing to admit how bad it really is?
Big Al
This Donald Coxe’s take on gold. I’m beginning to think he might be right.
“Gold’s problem, why it has maxed-out at and pulled back to $1,500, is people say, ‘Well, it had a big move, going from $250 to that ($1,900) level, but it’s still just a theoretical asset, it isn’t doing anything.’ So the moment gold comes into the system and starts doing things, I suspect that’s when we are going to get a significant up-move in gold.”
The repeated smack downs have cause the market to accept the status quo. Things are afoot, though.
You bet Doc!
Things are definitely afoot.
Big Al
Problem is, it could be a while. I am also beginning to think that the deflationists have a stronger point than I used to think. I believed if you print enough money this will inevitably lead to inflation. After all, we all know about Weimar, Argentina, etc. But as long as the printed money does not escape into the general economy and into the hands of people who will then use it to buy goods, they can print money till kingdom come and all it will do is keep the zombie system zombieing along.
I would like to mention two options for the US to turn their economy around and see it function yet again.
First they need to bring their troops stationed in foreign lands home.
Secondly they need to legalize marijuana and control it’s sale and distribution, like they did after they realized prohibition was a failure.
The results of these two actions would be extremely positive for The US balance of payments. Policing the world and fighting a losing war on drugs will lead to the extreme decline of Americas prosperity.
Very interesting points, Shawn!
Big Al
Rick Ackerman is correct; Trader Rog and James Turk are on the wrong side of the short-term. I hate to sound like a broken record but the short-term points down on all the charts I watch. As Rick says; that can turn on a dime but at this time I see no dimes to pick up.
wait till the november elections – especially if Obama is relected.
Richard, smart people don’t trip over dollars to pick up dimes!
John, I must not be too smart then since I’ll trip over dollars to pick up dimes minted before 1965.
Hi Doc,
What is an easy book for me to read to explain the rudiments of TA?
Big Al
Al, it’s been a long time since I read one of the classical books on TA. I’ll go back to my library and attempt to find the one I enjoyed. You’re correct in that you want an “easy book” to read since some of these guys get pretty esoteric. There are some basic “fundamentals” of TA you should learn and you’ll want to hone in on them and keep it simple. The problem with most guys that tend to be technicians is that they make it so complex and then don’t see the “forest for the trees.”. Then I go beyond the technicals they use and I look at other things such as momentum and strength indicators which are very valuable. Then there are subtleties that I’ve honed over the years. I call them my proprietary software (brain). Those are the kind of things that I would love to talk to you about when you pick up some of the basics of TA. The thing I look for are subtle nuances indicating a major change in the markets. You take gold for instance—-I could and did say the top was in place at about 1900. Did I take profits knowing that—no, because I’m a long-term believer and believed we’re still in a secular bull market. Anyway, I’ll go to my library and see if I can dust off one of the old books—if I didn’t toss them out. Just remember, when you read one, take out the major points and forget a lot of the detail they throw at you. It’s not worth the paper written on.
Hi Richard, where do you see resistance for Gold at this time, I am looking to purchase more gold bullion but I haven’t bought any since May of 2011, when I believe it was close to $1475.
I would say that if you get a couple of weeks of gold closing below 1550, you’ll see lower prices at $1475-$1500. That’s where (hopefully) support would be for awhile. I’ll be interested at that point . At that point in time, I’ll be better able to fore-cast whether we would see even lower prices. This doesn’t bother me since I feel we’ll go higher in the future.
Shawn – I know you asked Richard but I would offer this – Gold could test $1525-$1535 again. If it breaks this it could go back down to what you picked it up for last May. If it holds there are several resistance levels now – $1580, $1600, $1625, $1680 all they way back up to the all time high. This is actually not a bad time to add to your bullion if you are a long term investor. I have always said it is better to be a year early than a day late. As far as the dimes that Richard can’t see – you never do. Ive followed gold for 12 years now and it is uncanny how it always does what you don’t expect it to do – whether on the way up or on the way down. Ask yourself why you are investing in gold and act accordingly. Best.
Thanks James, I am very contrarian when I buy anything, I meant to say support but you picked up on that anyway; I do see the price starting to escalate soon but soon could be in 3 months; $1525-$1530 looks good, it is always easy to jump in or out if you see a parabolic rise or decline but for now I think around $1530 would be good, waiting in the wings to buy yet again.
Interesting article !!
http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Nenner-gold-price-stocks/2012/06/26/id/443511
Though I haven’t seen anything too detailed from Nenner for a little over a year, he is also calling for a major, world war before too long.
Hi Big Al,
My take on the daily gold chart is a sideways to up look. Neither Bulls or Bears have a clear who is in control look. My guess is UP. Best to you.
Hello,
Just stopped by to see you all. College is kickin’ my rearend time wise(15 – 20hours/wk). All the time I used to spend trackin’ my investments is now spent studying. Hope all is well with everyone. Hello Big Al and TR and all my ‘homies’!
Best to you!
Hang-in their. I writing my next Cisco exam in (hopefully) a month. CCNP by December! As Clay has said, always get some new skills. Better than any passport.
Technicals do not see black swans. If you are out of the market and a gold-positive gold swan happens what then?
Interesting article:
This is a follow up to my article on silver, yesterday:
http://www.marshallswing.com/index.php/weblog/comments/blythe-masters-next-move-silver-leads-again
The action in Gold over the last month plus shows us that Blythe has been playing gold like a fiddle but that she has not gotten the desired result because otherwise gold would now be trading at about $1530.
My silver chart reveals her true intended intentions:
http://www.marshallswing.com/images/uploads/weblog/06212012_Silver_Manipulation.jpg
Here in the gold chart we see perfect geometric shapes, one right after the other…
There is no lack of interest in gold however unlike we saw in silver where interest waned after the conclusive attacks of the Blythe-master herself!
But, the real battle is in gold, not silver and I will tell you why.
The gold market is huge and the shorts JPM and HSBC have are tremendous and they are the key that shows JPM must get out of these before the crash of Europe because if they do not undo these short positions then they lose everything, and I mean everything.
They will cease to operate as a bank because they cannot begin to cover the losses that will mount on the COMEX let alone the over the counter market in London.
It is interesting in that in many movies we see biblical references to the book of the Revelation and the end times and financial catastrophe, over and over again, but I want to point out to you a passage in Revelation 17 and 18 where it almost looks as if John the revelator is describing our current derivative nightmare and perhaps JP Morgan and Blythe Masters themselves and our top 5 US banks with almost $300 Trillion in notional derivative exposure, according to the Bank of International Settlements.
Al,
have a go at the Keiser report at:
http://www.rt.com/programs/keiser-report/episode-306-max-keiser
rick ackerman features here at the 80 % mark…interesting concepts..smuggled gold at swiss border/bankers criminalized in Iceland/Korea/china etc…denominated assets for hard assets and backed loan money guarantees on the countries physical gold holdings…this is all so Gold centric..brought to this site from an ad that said these were the ten most dangerous men in the world (outliers of opinion to the pervailing main Media)…i really like Keisers tongue n’ cheek/caustic remarks and wildly interplayed conversational imaginations..
from a frattered retail investor that needs the outliers for solace
mike m.
Mike,
The financial world is getting more and more SURREAL!
Big Al and all,
A nice article to digest and enjoy. Any comments?
http://ezinearticles.com/?Are-You-Ready-for-Silvers-BREAKTHROUGH?&id=7131880
Hi, HO SILVER!
Marc
Happy B-Day Stephanie! She won’t remember me but I was lucky enough to meet all the Korelins when in Vancouver. You’re my kind of people!