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Trader Rog elaborates on comments he made yesterday.

Big Al
July 27, 2012

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Discussion
17 Comments
    Tom
    Jul 27, 2012 27:15 PM

    Hi Al,
    Not to to be a stick in the mud hère, but TR did make excuses. Let’s call it like it is. He said that he missed 2 indicators that he should have seen. Tom

      Jul 27, 2012 27:26 PM

      Yes he did. I guess we’re not all perfect.

      Big Al

    Jul 27, 2012 27:12 PM

    Roger gives a very credable opinion as I did when a broker.However each of us as investors must evaluate that information & combine it with our own opinion before we buy or sell. Remember our mistakes teach us much more than the easy going. Mistakes are hidden treasure for the future. I know Roger to be a very good source of information for my trading process.K J.

      Jul 27, 2012 27:27 PM

      Very good point, Ken.

      Big Al

        Jul 28, 2012 28:59 AM

        Hi Al
        Talk about hidden treasure.A geologist friend of mine brought to my attention a company called Newstrike Capital(NES). This Lukas Lundin backed company has made what my froend thinks is a once or twice in a decade world class rich gold and sliver deposit in Mexico.He think NES is VEN and ARU all over again.I would like to see you AL, get Newstrike Capitals CEO Richard Whittall on your show to give investors on your site a breifing about the Ana Paula discovery.Richard is a very down to earth guy and would likely become a sponcer is you contacted him.In the mean time this is the latest from the Wall Street Journa on Newstrikel.As a side note I have been told that some big majors are doing DD on newstrike with take over in mind.After reading the drill intercepts it is my view thses are NOT rumors. Euro Pacific Capital has a $10.75 cent share price target on NES.The shares closed friday at $1.48

        Updated July 17, 2012, 8:50 p.m. ET

        In Mexico, Gold Mines Beckon Once More

        By NICHOLAS CASEY

        MESCALA, Mexico—Here in Mexico, a new gold rush is under way.

        High gold prices are compelling companies to start mining more aggressively in the difficult terrain in Mexico’s mountainous areas. Video and reporting by WSJ’s Nicholas Casey.

        The metal’s long cycle of high prices, surpassing $1,500 an ounce, has allowed big outfits like Canada’s Goldcorp Inc. to set up operations in areas where, in the past, gold wasn’t concentrated enough in the soil for mines to make a profit after sifting it out. This year, Goldcorp’s Peñasquito site, a massive, low-concentration mine in the deserts of Zacatecas state, is set to produce 500,000 ounces of gold, making it Mexico’s biggest gold mine and Goldcorp’s most prolific.

        Elsewhere in Mexico, discoveries of more highly concentrated deposits have led a host of exploration companies to increase investments and land purchases. These high-grade discoveries include the find late last year of an underground deposit the size of a high-rise building in the mountains of Guerrero—a strike nearly a thousand feet deep and 500 feet wide that mining companies believe to be one of the most highly concentrated discoveries in Mexico in the last 50 years.

        “People had said everything had been discovered in Mexico. Now you’re seeing a renaissance,” said Richard Whittall, chief executive of Canada’s Newstrike Capital Inc., which discovered the Guerrero site, still under exploration.

        Silver has long been the cash cow of Mexico’s mining industry. But last year the country joined the top 10 gold producers, mining more than 86 metric tons of the yellow metal, three times what it produced 10 years ago and more than other heavyweights in the region like Chile and Argentina.

        Mining companies attribute this growth in part to the commodity’s surge after a 20-year cycle of low prices of around $400 per ounce. As financial crises struck the U.S. and Europe, gold prices rose as many people pulled money from more risky investments and bought gold instead. In Mexico, this allowed miners to reap big profits in regions where gold wasn’t as concentrated.

        Goldcorp’s operation here at the Los Filos mine in Guerrero offers a glimpse of where high prices are taking gold-producing countries like Mexico. People had mined in these mountains since colonial times on a small scale, leaving behind networks of underground shafts and even a few ghost towns.

        Los Filos, by contrast, is a vast, open-pit mine the size of its neighboring village in Mescala. Some 2,000 employees work here. More than 70,000 metric tons of earth daily are removed with explosives and bulldozers, then trucked to a nearby site where cyanide pools are used to extract the mineral. The chemicals are recycled by pipes and the process begins again.

        After a $500 million investment, the mine went into commercial operation in 2008. Last year miners extracted 330,000 ounces of gold—a record for the mine, which is expected to remain operational for another dozen years.

        Success at Los Filos led the company to make an even bigger investment in Mexico when it bought and began developing the Peñasquito site in Zacatecas in 2010 at a cost of $1.7 billion, Goldcorp’s largest foreign investment anywhere. In addition to an average 500,000 ounces of gold a year, the site will also expected to produce an annual average of 28 million ounces of silver, along with high quantities of lead and zinc.

        “The open-pit volume has exploded there,” said Salvador García, head of Goldcorp’s Latin America operation.

        Companies say they are drawn to Mexico by its mining laws, which allow foreign firms to reap much of the profits from their investments. Under federal law, companies must apply for a mineral-rights concession through the Mexican government and operate there through a Mexican company. But the local company may be fully owned by foreigners.

        The arrangement allows foreign investors full ownership over their operation and the Mexican government the ability to tax them under local law. Taxes include a 34% income tax on profits along with mining duties, which vary by the mine.

        This creates a sizable windfall for the government—in 2011, Goldcorp paid $218.5 million in taxes just for its Peñasquito mine, the company said.

        Peter Schulhof, whose company Westridge Resources Inc. operates a new gold mine in Mexico’s Sinaloa state, said Westridge had been sorting through plans for mines in 60 other countries but eventually opted for Mexico because of its political and legal stability.

        While many firms want to explore countries like Venezuela, where mineral quality may be higher, the risks of nationalization are high, too, he says. “The colors of the Rubik’s cube lined up in Mexico,” he says.

        Mexico presents real dangers for investors, however. Authorities have accused crime groups of stealing municipal electricity lines to melt down and sell as copper prices have risen; Mexico’s state-run oil monopoly Petróleos Mexicanos says the Zetas gang has made off with large quantities its of oil annually—a commodity seemingly more difficult to steal than gold bars.

        Goldcorp says it hasn’t had any problems with drug gangs, but is still taking precautions, such as building an airstrip in Los Filos which will allow gold bars to be flown out of the site to refineries rather than pass through Mexican highways.

        Another risk relates to the price of gold itself: While buoyed now as an investment safe haven, prices could fall during the life spans of the new Mexican mines. Companies argue that most major Mexican projects were planned before gold prices hit their peak and therefore protected from a dip in price. But they still warn about the need to keep production costs low in the event of a price change.

        “If you are a miner that wants to stay, you need to plan to be not just a part of this cycle, but others cycles too,” said Armando Ortega, who heads the Latin America division of Canadian firm Newgold Inc.

        Write to Nicholas Casey at nicholas.casey@wsj.com

        A version of this article appeared July 18, 2012, on page B1 in

          Jul 28, 2012 28:01 AM

          Sorry for the tyyyppoos guys in a hurry.
          James

    Jul 27, 2012 27:49 PM

    Al, as you’re aware, Mark Alan and myself were a little dubious about TR’s comments recently. I believe we’re still going to be in a consolidative phase and we’re not going to go “nuts” yet in the Pms. The good news in my opinion is that the odds are very good that we have a bottom in. The other good news is that the longer we trade like we are the greater the possibility we’re still in a healthy bull market. Another piece of good news is that the longer we are in this consolidative phase and trading range, the greater the move when we break out. More good news is that as we trade sideways we’re able to feel quite well about the lows being in and to start to accumulate mining shares slowly since they won’t get away from us. In fact, that’s what I’m beginning to do especially with some juniors that don’t have much more down in them and are completely washed out. In all likelihood we should see a pullback but it wouldn’t bother me at all. I love the market we’re in right now since it gives you a good chance to move in without much downside risk. Even if you move in and we do break lower you can then sell your positions without much loss and wait for the next bottoming out.

      Jul 27, 2012 27:02 PM

      Wow! Talk about a bogus market! Stocks ripping higher on nothing but rumors and the momentum index was nearly 18 to 1!!! Unreal! Gold and silver still could not break out above their resistance levels and volume was really lacking.
      But the EUR/USD – holy cow – what a joke! Rockets higher on rumors then crashes back to earth and it should have sent the USD higher but it didn’t, at least, not by as much as it should have. If there isn’t some funny high jinx going on here, then I don’t know what to tell you. But we are seriously over bought now in the conventionals and we could get a couple of days of higher prices but there is now more downside gaps to be filled on the S&P. And with the dollar bouncing off and closing above the day’s low at resistance, I think we could be in for a market surprise – down. Time will tell, but I think gold will still hold well at the $1560 .

        Jul 27, 2012 27:36 PM

        Me too Mark A

        Big Al

      Jul 27, 2012 27:29 PM

      I could not agree morep, Doc0p!

      Big Al

    Jul 27, 2012 27:02 PM

    Mark, great observations. The conventional markets don’t make sense at these levels especially based on the earnings coming in. It now appears earnings aren’t even going to meet their lowered expectations and in fact may end up in negative territory. I agree that the conventional markets may even move a little higher but then watch out. The chart to watch is still the Dow/Gold ratio and it’s relationship to the 200 week MA. Monday, we’ll be even closer to it and in the next few weeks there in all likelihood will be some significant moves in some markets. The trading ranges will end.

      Jul 27, 2012 27:10 PM

      Evening Doc!

      I am amazed at all the bullishness that I am reading now, regrading the conventional markets. Olympics opened today just in time for the markets to rally higher, giving the appearance that all is well. But the action in the EUR/USD is completely amazing, as I stated earlier. I may have jumped the gun today, but I shorted the S&P using SPY with in the money PUT options for Sept. I got in around 138.70 and am expecting a “gap” open on Monday with the possibility of hitting 1400 to 1405. If it goes beyond that on strength, I may just cut the losses, but to me, the Sept PUTS should play out well, since I bought the 139 strike. We’ll see.

      Yes, that DOW/GOLD ration is so important to watch, and with many indicators showing oversold conditions, I think that ratio is getting REALLY CLOSE to dropping.
      Have a great weekend Doc!

        Jul 27, 2012 27:13 PM

        You too.

    Jul 27, 2012 27:08 PM

    Technical analysis is less than perfect if markets really are manipulated folks.

      Jul 27, 2012 27:23 PM

      MICHAEL………..I totally agree,

      Jul 27, 2012 27:58 PM

      Good Evening Michael

      To some extent, I agree with you, but…because of the manipulation and intervention in the conventional markets, one can see it cause irrational technical behavior, as well as irrational trading behavior. And it is THAT irrationality that lends one to making great trades. I think too many people consider technical analysis as strictly “looking at charts”. There is a LOT more to it than that. One can look at internal strength of and compare ratios, to correlations, to insider trading. If I just used a basic chart for all my trading, I would agree completely with your statements. But as we say in trading; “Don’t predict the market movements. Let the market come to you and then ride it.”
      You are correct in that it is less than perfect, because you can take one hundred traders and end up with many different opinions of where the market is going to go.

    Ken
    Jul 27, 2012 27:05 PM

    Let’s face it. No one, no matter how good, knows for sure what tomorrow will bring.