Marshall Berol and Big Al discuss gold
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Great point Mr. Tracy,
I guess that as society evolves, life becomes more and more complicated.
Best to you and thanks for joining us.
Big Al
According to Rick Rule on King World News this morning, both Soros and Paulson now back long into AU
ditto Dick….George is looking for someone to sell him some gold,,,,this time he may have a little harder time….Seems the Bank of England is not selling, and China knows his game…..
Morning In the Box,
Sources tell me that China is buying in size. Can’t verify but am certainly looking into it.
Big Al
Big Al, Jerry and all,
I hearing very solid rumblings about CHINA wanting to buy 5,000 to 6,000 tonnes of GOLD within THIS YEAR. THAT’S IS RIGHT…..5 to 6 THOUSAND TONNES….wow…..makes a lot of sense….China knows the game and the YUAN will challenge the dollar for supremacy with 5 years if not sooner!!
Marc
Any source Marc?
Big Al
thanks Marc..for the info…..I think that is the amount IRISH IS SELLING TO AL…
That’s true. Did Mr Irish disclose the 75% discount. I think he is hurting because he is still paying off the trip to Vegas. I understand it was very expensive because he had to buy all of those negatives. (You should have split it with him!)
Big Al
LAS vegas AL….I did understand that the negatives were very expensive, especially the ones with the queen…., but, the queen did promise to reinburse him after the election, seems there are some scenes that are very revealing at the fort knox gig, and the picture of obama’s and the queen dancing on the fake, tungston gold bars…may be an issue, if obama is not reelected,,,,Barry , promised to kiss her on the main square in Pickadilly, if the negative ever showed up……plus, Barry, said he was going to want all the dvds, he gave the queen , a couple of years ago,,seem, there is one in the mix, that shows him forging his birthcertificate, and drivers license, in 82….at the same time he was smoking some ,well, lets say it was not a cigarette. Got to run,,,,have to finish my painting….the wife is calling….ta,ta for now….
Okay Mr. Remodeler,
I am looking to purchase and install a retractable awning. Do they work?
Serious question.
Big Al
BIG REMODELER AL……I have never installed or purchased any retractable awnings…,but, If you intend on installing one.,,,,see if the person you wish to have install yours, has any that you can go see, and talk to the person who he installed it for…..
Check out Sinclair……Alf says we are headed to $4500…based on the “Fib”, and ABC Elliott Wave…great artical for Silver Fox…..
I’ve lost faith in all technical analysis because of the “takedowns” in the precious metal markets that happened this summer 2012 on an almost daily basis. They were not technical “retreats” – they were muggings, drive-by shootings, suppression, manipulation of the market. Now we learn that several big buyers have bought gold by the ton, and technical analysis is crowing how this shows mathematical trends upward. Balderdash. The cartel lost a few big members who want to make their own profits away from the cartel, that is all. Now we get to see who is stronger – the big players outside the cartel, or the cartel with multi-governmental power behind it. And the technical analysts will claim Fibonacci numbers and A-B-C curves and heads and shoulders in their “elephant and the blind men” ignorance.
Morning jhpace1,
And you commentary, my friend, is why I don’t study technical analysis.
Big Al
There’s TA and then there’s TA. TA has been a lot more accurate then “fundamentals” based on the last few months of PM trading. If you look at multiple charts and multiple indicators I’ll put my faith in TA more then fundamentals any day. TA generally doesn’t lie whereas CEOs and CFOs seem to have a penchant to lie. My technicals told me when to start to short the conventional markets a few days ago; no fundamentals have.
Another nice move up for gold today. I have a feeling that everyone will be giddy again and think “here we go”. My technicals tell me the odds (remember, I’m printing “the odds”) are this isn’t the real thing just yet. Can fundamentals tell you that? Nope. Can fundamentals even tell you the odds of what will happen in the near future as relates to gold’s movement. If you had depended on that in the past you would be sitting on some huge losses on the miners.
Doc,
I dearly wish I had your TA expertise. However, I have followed and listened to your very, very closely….I am no fool! Well, most of the time – I think! HA,HA 🙂
Thanks,
Marc
I also listen to what Doc has to say, Marc.
No fool most of the time? Just make sure you stay that way!
Big Al
Hi Doc,
My comments re: TA relate to me personally and not to anyone else.
Maybe I should learn more about them.
Big Al
That’s right Doc! Stand up for us TA traders and investors out there! I always here that TA is ‘magic’ or “bogus” TA represents the REAL psychology of a market, not the fundamentals. Fundamentals don’t move a market, psychology does. What traders and investors want, they get. Besides, how do you think those bankes know when to hit the PMs? They can look at a chart and know exactly where the psychological levels are. TA measures psychology, i.e. investors interest and that is measured in prices and patterns on the charts.
Thanks Doc for standing up for us.
stay frosty!
Mark, you’re right on. TA always gives you a better chance in the markets and an advantage over those that don’t understand it. There are times when a guy like Cramer will be touting a stock fundamentally and I’ll look at the technicals and you realize the technicals are screaming that it’s heading lower. Cramer may ultimately be right about the fundamentals and the stock will head higher but I’ll be able to get it cheaper when the TA tells me it’s bottoming—-I’ll have saved dollars in the process.
Afternoon Mark A,
Yes, my friend, psychology is exactly what moves markets!
Big Al
AL….DO YOU MEAN PSYCOS,LIKE CRAMER
Got to be truthful, In the Box. I have only watched this guy once!
Sorry, I guess that make me unAmerican!
Big Al
I do not study TA…..but, I sure listen to the experts…..the ones who have been around since the 70’s….and have some family members that have been around since the last depression…
Marc, the reason this may not yet be the real thing is that we’re getting close to some very significant resistance levels as I’ve mentioned in the past. The “odds” are that in market movements you don’t go blasting through those resistances the first time in most instances. Also significant are some gaps in this up movement that in most instances need to be filled. We have the FOMC meeting in September and the Jackson Hole meeting and everyone is anticipating the “utterances” of the FED. They in all likelihood are about to be disappointed. That could be the catalyst to hamper the up movement in the PMs. I really don’t care if we have a significant movement now in the PMs. It just gives investors a longer time to gradually add to their positions on pullbacks. All I know is that the bull at this time is intact and looking stronger all the time. The longer we stay in this consolidation phase the greater the movement when we truely begin the next move up. Remember, I keep referring to the Dow/Gold ratio and how we’re very close to “nudging” up to the 200 week MA. With the current move in the PMs and the Dow starting to break down a little my sense is that the MA maintains it’s significance and the ratio starts to break lower. The winner in this will (of course) be gold as compared to the conventional markets. The Dow/ Gold chart is THE chart to watch and I have a feeling most technicians don’t even know it exists or it’s relevance in this PM market.
Al, you might start reading some of the tutorials on the “Stockcharts. com” website. Some of their charts are free and they define various terminology as it relates to charts and the many patterns, momentum indicators, strength indicators, etc. Just take a few and watch the PM and ETF charts for awhile along with some stocks etc. and then play with the indicators etc. At first it’ll seem like Greek but after awhile you’ll start to educate yourself. If you just took 15 minutes a day to start with the PM ETFs (SLV and GLD) and apply some of the momentum indicators (RSI and MACD) and strength indicators (directional movements {w/ADX}. Then add moving averages to your charts and you’ll have some basics. Once you get comfortable with these you can start to add Bollinger Bands and some other technicals. You remember when I started to state that momentum was starting to favor PMs about 3 weeks ago. Guess what we’re moving higher. These indicators can signal a move often just when it begins. If you want to call me some day when you go to “stockcharts.com” I can help set the charts up for you. From there you can start to watch them every day and we can talk about the significance of various parameters. Doc.
Done and thanks Doc!
Big Al
Richard
I would also like to add that TA is like learning a foreign language; you have to practice it and listen to how it moves with the market sentiment. TA will speak to you, but you have to be able to understands BOTH sides of what it is saying. You can’t just pick a single chart sometimes, you have to look at other sectors and other markets to sometimes determine what could possibly happen and how investor sentiment and psychology is acting. TA is not 100% accurate and neither are fundamentals. Psychology is the name of the game guys and everyone on this blog demonstrates that! Look at all the frustration that occurred and all I read was “fundamentals are all positive for gold, why isn’t it going up” to all the bears coming on here predicting another horrible drop. the TA charts will tell you who is winning out. Stockcharts.com has some fantastic learning material and everybody has different learning styles. Take some time to understand them because they can really help you as an investor.
take care everyone and stay frosty!
DOC,
Heard and very much noted. Thanks so much on your active participation and analysis. I think I speak for the majority of us when I say it is very reassuring to be “coached” by someone as astute as you!
Marc
My apologies, In the Box, I was under the distinct impression that you have been around since the last depression!
Big Al
Mark A.,
Of course that includes you my friend!!
Marc
Don’t thank me, Marc. Thank Doc. He gives more of his opinions and analysis than I do. But I find it striking when he shorts markets or buys markets at nearly the same time as me. Sometimes I don’t get it right, but for the most part his analysis seems to match my analysis as well.
That, Mark A, is because you are both very good at TA unlike me!
Big Al
Jerry, you must have some really OLD family members.
Mark, great comments. I couldn’t agree with you more. Everybody was crying in their beer awhile back—-those are the best of times for an investor. I see resource stocks along with PM stocks on sale these days. Many are at a bottom or close to a bottom. They’re completely unloved except for those who see the bargains. I add a little to my portfolio every day—–the reason is that some of them could go even lower. Do I care? not really since the risk/reward is no longer to the downside but instead to the upside.
Hi Doc,
I pretty much agree with you in that the risk is, in my opinion, to the upside.
Big Al
Yes, RICHARD, I consider IRISH a family member, and I think he is about 103 yr.old by now…..that co^ors lite realllly put some age on him….
Richard…..btw….I was referring to Sinclair in my original comments….but, my dad was was 93 when he passed and he always talked about the depression,,,,and the idea of saving money….and not paying interest to any banker….the principal at home was,,if you can not pay cash , you can not afford it…..
We are not going to change anything political,,, the plot has been spun, and the spin is in the wind…..the sheeple like their freebies….the American public has become over weight, overpaid, and under educated….
And that, In the Box, is why I love weightwatchers. (By the way light beer and wine is okay in reason. As soon as I figure out what “in reason” means, I will let you know. I think that it means until you fall asleep!)
Big Al
HA! LOLLL! Funny Big Al!
Amen…Jerry….a BIG AMEN!
Marc….A “BIG AMEN”…….(is that anything like a big wopper, with fries)
And, any size soft drink you want included!
Big Al
As per expected returns, update:
Gold has finally rallied out of a very tight range, and gold’s best days are yet to come. The first real test comes at about $1650, which represents the 200-day moving average. Until that level is breached, gold will still be in a correction/consolidation phase, which is actually the best possible scenario. Gold has been building so much “energy” during this consolidation that I suspect the rally out of this pattern will be insane.
Gold is rallying on the same day it was announced that Buffett unloaded $8.25 billion in credit default swaps (5 years early), which insured against municipal defaults. This is not good news. Buffett’s timing historically isn’t perfect, but it’s pretty darn good.
Meredith Whitney was early on her call of municipal defaults, and the financial media mocked her for it. But the problems at the municipal level haven’t gone away, and in many ways they have gotten worse. California will probably raise taxes on those earning more than $250,000 to offset some of their burgeoning deficits. However, this will be counterproductive because the highest earners in the state happen to be in the tech sector, which is the only thing keeping California afloat. There is no ironclad law that says the tech sector must be based in California, and a more stringent tax policy will create an exodus out of California.
New accounting rules that are coming on line in 2015 will force States to report their pension gaps a little more honestly. This has many cascading effects, including higher costs of borrowing and more job cuts. Furthermore, the Federal government is set to reduce their aid to States, which is basically the knockout blow. We will probably see serious problems at the municipal level starting in 2013.
Buckle up, because this is going to be a wild ride. The volatility we will see in the next Presidential cycle will be similar to the volatility of 2008. This crisis will be “worse” because it is government that is going belly up, not companies. People are still lost, confused, and totally unaware of the severity of what lies ahead. Kinda reminds me of 2007.
Great comment, Paul L!
I also found it interesting that Warren B took that action.
Best,
Big Al
Paul L.,
Excellent input and insight!
All the best,
Marc
Big Al,
What is up with Aurcana!? It is dropping precipitously. WHAT A GIFT! I wish I had the funds to BACK UP the truck!
Marc
Not sure, Marc.
I will call Lenic.
Big Al
Thank Al. Their Q2 report was very, very encouraging….growth and more growth!
What I’ll say is that my collateralized physical holdings of pm’s are making better gains than the portion I “try”to day/swing trade. Maybe buy 1:1 on the dips is really the best strategy eh… I learned TA with a trading academy for some book knowledge, but it’s just not applying “by the book”. I just think the market is crazy in almost every way right now. With that said, I’m not jumping in long on silver at the 29.80 level. My suspicions tell me a lackluster news day out of the EU and dollar pop can change sentiment to the downside for a slight correction… even in light of all the phys buying and bullish calendar timing. At least it would be a good reason for the powers that be to push it down short term. IMHO
Big Al, BRAD and all,
I am tellin ya, if I didn’t start ‘dollar cost average’ into this market starting in 2006, I would be going crazy trying to figure out entry/exit points. I am and will remain a LONG TERM macro fundamentalist that will exit this market the EXACT same way I entered it. When do I pull out my FIRST bullion stash (?) – depends on the move and my particular re-investment strategy to purchase something else (most likely land/real estate). But, I can say, that we are still waiting for the BIG MOVE. I will remind our fellow friends here again what the late and highly intelligent Howard Katz would say:
THE BIG MONEY IS MADE IN THE ONE BIG MOVE!………let’s all patiently wait for it because it is coming….sooner rather than later.
All the best,
Marc
Seems a bit contradictory, Marc.
Dollar cost averaging on the way up and then all out on the way down?
Maybe I am just really conservative but wouldn’t it make more sense to take a little off the table at different periods of time?’
Please explain,
Big Al
Yes, absolutely Big Al. You are correct. That is what I meant to indicate! My first ‘pull-out” will be a determined percentage of my total investment. Then as my education on this blog, macro analysis, professional guidance and other DD’s will determine my movements out of this market. I will not pull out all at once. I am sorry if that is how it came out. Yes, as you know, I am also conservative. That why I said ” I will exit the same way I entered.” In a step-by-step, incremental way.
Marc
Good thinking, Marc A!
Big Al
Probably good thinking, Brad H.
Big Al
Brad, I agree with you regarding this move in PMs. I began purchasing silver at lower leves along with some miners and the gdxj. I have some nice gains but am not chasing the market here. I agree that in all likelihood we should see a pullback—then the charts could give us a good idea of whether we should head back up or whether we will trade back to lower end of the range.
Disagree with Marshall about the candidates. While the government budget is very important, both parties overspend- democrats on social programs, republicans on defense. This has been true the last 70 years. Both parties and media controlled by central bankers
Hi Bill,
I happen to agree with you.
My buddy, Marshall, is simply a died in the wool conservative and about as far away from a liberal as is possible!
Big Al
GOOD FOR MARSHALL…..
2006?, man, you’re sitting very well then Marc. I sense there are a number of other people on this site that have been in the pm market that early.
Thinking about throwing in the towel and just buy/hold….. Brad
A bit longer than 2006 for me Brad H, thanks to my parents.
Big Al
Brad,
Do what you feel comfortable doing! You, my friend are WAY ahead of the game just by your sheer participation on this site and your current investment inclinations. Remember, literally, 99% of the mainstream hasn’t even smelt this shift in the hard asset arena…unbelievable! You are going to do great.
Marc
Hopefully Mr. Aztec,
We will all do great!
Big Al
I listened to the daily insight yesterday and have to disagree with what seems like every single guest that discussed this: There is a way out of this mess!!
Step 1:
Have the justice department do its job and prosecute all criminals once enough evidence is gathered, including all those international financiers clearly falling under the RICO Act.
Step 2:
Have Congress reclaim its power to issue the currency and fix its value.
The privilege of creating and issuing money is not only the supreme prerogative of Government, but it is the Government’s greatest creative opportunity. By the adoption of these principles, the long-felt want for a uniform medium will be satisfied. The taxpayers will be saved immense sums of interest, discounts and exchanges. The financing of all public enterprises, the maintenance of stable government and ordered progress, and the conduct of the Treasury will become matters of practical administration. The people can and will be furnished with a currency as safe as their own government. Money will cease to be the master and become the servant of humanity. Democracy will rise superior to the money power.” – Abraham Lincoln
Step 3
Implement currency issuance based on Raw Materials Economics
All human wealth must originate somewhere in the real world and the process that explains human wealth creation begins with raw materials. Understanding this process which begins with raw materials requires appreciation of the essential role of human productivity.
http://rawmaterialsecon.com/economics/1/5-rules-of-raw-materials-economics.html
BTW Al, you may have better luck getting an interview to discuss Raw Materials Economics with this guy:
THE NATURE OF WEALTH – Written by Fred Lundgren
Discovering the physics within an economic system
Fred Lundgren is the co-founder of Radio Station KCAA, 1050 AM, Loma Linda, California, a station that serves the greater Riverside/San Bernardino markets. Lundgren is also the managing CEO of the station and co-founder of a non-profit organization called Organic Media, Inc. that specializes in organic farming instruction.
Click the “e-mail me” button.
Done and also thanks Missive,
Big Al
Flathead my numbers guy tells me that he agrees with Peter G, that is if gold closes for 2 consecutive days above $1650 the break out is on. That means tomorrow looks to be the day. Anybody want to take bets on whose right?
There is nothing like a little pot stirring to get the adrenalin flowing. Platinum is up $140 per ounce in one week, gold investors will be looking over their shoulder.
Dick, a good reason for platinum’s move is probably the strikes and violence in South Africa. As you’re aware, South Africa is one of the larger producers of platinum as well as palladium. The interesting thing is I’m more bullish on palladium then I am on platinum. The reason is that Russia, the largest producer of palladium has just about exhausted all of their long standing reserves of palladium. Another reason is that because of the big cost differential between palladium and platinum, more and more car producers are moving to exclusively palladium for their catalytic converters. Currently I’m starting to purchase a start-up palladium miner in the US. which is in the process of bottoming. It’s the only significant one that I’m aware of in the US.
Doc,
What do you think of Stillwater mining?
Marc, I don’t know the fundamentals on SWC but, technically, it looks very strong right now. On the daily charts, it’s finally above it’s 50 day MA which is a positive. It’s moved up nicely to challenge the 200 day MA and is just below it. A weekly close above that would be another positive. Currently, on the daily charts, it’s in “over-bought” territory but stocks can be “over-bought” for a long time. Now, let’s look at the weekly chart which is the more significant chart as opposed to the daily chart. The stock today closed right on the 50 week MA. and is in “shouting distance of the upper bollinger band and the 200 week MA. If the PMs move down in the near future to “shake out” the longs, SWC could move down but based on the uptrending 50 day MA I would purchase the stock then. I would also (possibly)purchase the stock if it closes over the 50 week MA and takes out the upper bollinger band and the 200 week MA. I hope this helps.
Marc, I might add that I’m going to put SWC on my watch action and thanks for alerting me to the stock. By the way, I’m not an investment adviser as Al so often reminds us. Doc.
Doc, big HEARTY thank you!
First of all Mr Tracy,
I used to read all the comic books about you. Secondly, the movie was just okay.
Now to the question of gold.
In this insane market I would hate to bet on it, but in the mid to long term Big Al is a definite bull!
Big Al
Hi Al, this one is for you, “OPEN UP IN THERE? I’VE GOT A TOMMY GUN IN MY HAND AND IT’S IN A BARKING MOOD?
I have a bazooka in my hand and don’t need to open no stinking door!
Big Al
Dick,
Please consider Doc’s (Richard) technical assessments first. I don’t know how long you have been following this site (by the way, I HEARTY WELCOME), but he is incredibly consistent and accurate with his analysis. This could be a final “fakeout” like he possibly suggests. Something to consider – FYI.
All the best,
Marc
I Dick, I agree with Marc!
Big Al
Just gotta comment on TA.
I have seen it work and not work, I see it for active traders.
Fundimentals, i think can be obvious.
Only thing the markets are completly manipulated. (check libor) and crooked ask svm.
Personaly, imo, Mr. Moriarity has got it right, just buy whatever it is when its cheap.
I have turned out to be a lousey trader, but still up (for me) lots.
The thing that I like the most is Mr. Turks idea of “just buy once a month”.
Save money instead of currency, that fundimental thinking as everyone knows has paid off, in and out technicaly and you could be up or down.
Maybe its a potAtoe Potatoe thing.
Here’s one, technicaly you could vote obama or romney, fundimentaly, gotta be Ron.
don’t forget Dan Quail,vp.under bush….did not know how to spell potato…
Great analogy, benb!
Big Al
Evening Ben B
Funny thing with Mr. Moriarty…he uses technicals all the time to tell him when to get in and when to get out. He uses the NAV of Sprott Physical Silver Trust to call tops and bottoms quite accurately in the silver market. He also uses a $HUI:$GOLD ratio to determine when to get into the mining shares and out. He also does some cyclical work with TA charts. He also uses charts to compare the bond yields with the conventional markets. He knows how to use TA.
Forgot to say, dont get me wrong, I love the TA and contributions from you guys .
I think its Great stuff.
Benb, I like your comment about buying “whatever it is when its cheap”. That’s a hard thing for most investors to do but if you really want to do well in the markets it’s the best strategy there is. It often takes moving from one sector to another but that’s what the really good investors do. The tough part is determining what has value when something is cheap.
ditto….on the “tough part is determining what has value when something is cheap”…got to know your stuff….or you will loose your stuffins….
Jerry/richard
You guys are exactly right. Determining what is/when its cheap.
Thats the key. Here is a fundimental, not certain how to apply to markets.
Should I be shoeless and about to walk across snow I might be willing to pay a little for shoes,on a sunny day at the sandy beach maybe not so much.
But thats the obvious fundimental I was mentioning, somtimes, it shows itself with shares. If I was smart, it might show itself More often. lol
And Jerry, Lol on potatoe, maybe I should have said tomato.
nice day in the markets
nevada and wash state , both have high tech areas. and both have no state income tax. some high techs are also locating in boise Idaho, and parts of montana. I love Cal. , but to visit not live in. love and good health to all S
I agree with you about Circus California.
No state income tax is why we live in Washington. And, more importantly, until recently it was working financially.
Big Al
Wow – some of you are into some good hootch, eh?
It’s all good … I think a small celebration is called for after what we’ve been through. 🙂
Not you are absolutely not correct. We need a BIG celebration, at least for the time being.
Big Al
I am a technician and believe in Technical Analysis and aobut 3-4 years ago used it in a trading plan I devised for 18 futures wins in a row with no misses. however, you need to understand these cycle phases do no last forever and we are getting more artificial manipulation which renders all markets’ work somewhat impotent. It can work even with interference if you have gazillions invested and have a longer time cycle for trades. I still use it in all of my work along with fundamentals. Incidentally, we called the last two major gold moves almost to the day in my newsletter using tech analysis. We are not perfect but if you can catch the primary trends you win – Traderrog
Life was a lot easier in the 1930’s when we had 2-way radios to communicate with and the government propaganda machine was an old man standing behind a smoking curtain like in “The Wizard Of OZ.”
Now what we have is a Mad Hatters Tea Party and the propaganda machine speaks from both sides with a forked tongue. When George Soro’s say’s he’s shorting gold he’s really hoping you will sell into his open arms.