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Here are current comments on gold and silver from Ron Hera

Big Al
November 8, 2012

“Precious metals prices recently moved sharply higher in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s QE3 program in the U.S. while the ECB’s inflationary OMT program in Europe paradoxically strengthened the Euro by reducing uncertainty and by placing downward pressure on sovereign bond yields.  The actual effects of QE3, however, will take some time to manifest themselves, thus precious metals predictably sold off.  In fact, outside of financial and government centers, Western economies face broad deflationary pressures.  Therefore, highly inflationary policies have not moved precious metals prices as much or as quickly as most analysts expected.  Nonetheless, the overall, long term price trend in gold will certainly continue as a function of systematic monetary debasement.  Like gold, the silver price has become dependent on investment demand since mine supply plus recycling is currently sufficient to meet industrial and jewelry demand.  It seems likely that the price of silver will remain range bound until physical demand tightens supply sufficiently to move the price for physical metal higher independent of derivative product prices, e.g., COMEX futures contracts.  In theory, persistent poor economic conditions could accelerate demand for precious metals, e.g., as a safehaven or inflation hedge, but the same conditions deprive many potential buyers of cash, interest income and conventional investment returns.  Thus, the advance of precious metals is more similar to trench warfare than to a blitzkrieg: a protracted, muddy, bloody game of attrition.”

Discussion
7 Comments
    Nov 08, 2012 08:57 PM

    IMHO, I think it is quite likely that the bottom is in for gold. Two weeks ago, I was looking for GLD to take out 163.66, the low in Sept. We didn’t do that in Oct, but we did that last Friday (I think the closure of the markets due to Sandy affected the cycle) with a print of 162.30. My dad heeded my advice that day and bought quite a bit of PHYS near the lows. Since this pattern seems to be similar to that of 2008-09, I expect Nov and possibly Dec to be a positive month for gold.

    The miners are a different beast. I shorted the miners around the 520 level on the $HUI and covered around the 490 area, expecting the bottom to be in around 480. However, it dipped even further due to the poor earnings of the large cap miners. I have a substantial % of my money in the shares but I think it will take some time before we launch considerably higher.

      Nov 09, 2012 09:00 AM

      I have to say, Jimmy, that most of my explorers are coming back nicely and about 50% of them are not in a strong profit range.

      Best,

      Big Al

        Nov 09, 2012 09:40 AM

        I tend to invest in intermediate/senior producers and for the juniors and explorers, mainly the ETFs such as the GDXJ and the GLDX. Most of them are up around 20%-30%+ off the May and July/Aug lows. The royalty companies are generally outperforming. Several of the large cap companies (ABX, NEM, AU, CDE, etc) disappointed on earnings and the shares have been beaten down pretty hard but I think they will slowly recover with a rising gold and silver price.

          Nov 11, 2012 11:32 PM

          I only invest in companies where I know the management, Jimmy.

          I am very much a people person and I have not been disappointed of late.

          I know people are going to come back and point out two of my holdings which are doing really poorly from a stock performance standpoint. Those being American Manganese and Premium Exploration.

          I have averaged down significantly in PEM as you should all be aware and I am pretty comfortable there.

          Regarding AMY, I am not taking the big tax loss I would get if I sold because I know Larry Reaugh and his staff. They are not quitters and I believe that 2013 will be a good year for them.

          Big Al

      Feb 02, 2014 02:12 PM

      your order to The Comic Book Alliance, PO Box 165, Marple, Cheshire SK6 7BL. You can download an order form from the CBA wtsibee (and find out more about the CBA while you’re there.) Cheques &

    Nov 09, 2012 09:36 AM

    I fancied 1680 as at least an interim low target for gold because it was the target of the head and shoulders that Clive Maund had on his commentary, even though he drew a MASSIVE down arrow that went way past that, I wonder why because I think he never justified that on a technical level.

      Nov 09, 2012 09:17 AM

      I think he was looking at the $1620 area as potential support. That could have been a possibility since it would also test the downward trend line since the Sept 2011 highs, but because of timing, I didn’t think that was very likely to happen.

      I don’t follow Maund because I think he’s wrong more times than he’s right. Cycle guys such as Gary Savage and Martin Armstrong have a much better track record. When gold had that $40 down day on Friday, Jon Nadler came out and started mocking the gold bulls once again, with his “In The Lead” commentaries. See here: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Nadler/20121106.html. He is, what Peter Grandich calls, the Tokyo Rose of gold forecasting.