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There is no way the Fed can taper anytime soon – Tim Iacono

September 24, 2013

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Discussion
25 Comments
    CFS
    Sep 24, 2013 24:12 PM

    I agree. No tapering soon. Possible negative tapering (i.e. further expansion) Next year.

    They HAVE to keep interest rates low, or housing market dies, bond market dies.
    Average debt maturity has been shortening since 2008, in order to keep cost of interest low. Thus there is a lot of re-financing to do. Ergo they cannot taper or interest rates would rise.
    It is continuous QE until the collapse of the system.

    The real question is can they keep inflation low until the collapse. This depends on whether the collapse is due to decreasing dollar value or derivatives blow-up.
    If dollar value drops significantly, gold price and inflation rise. (This is not solvable by increasing QE, but is probably the one with lower probability, because there are just so many dollars in circulation)
    If derivatives blow up first, probably less inflation and gold price rise. (May be solvable by either increasing QE or nationalizing offending bank)
    That’s my 2c.

      Sep 25, 2013 25:06 AM

      Inflation is the increase of money over and above the production of money (gold and silver–von Mises). Look at stocks and bonds for the past five years–that is financial asset inflation. Commodity prices can decline during an inflation–i9t all depends are where the newly created money goes vs. supply and demand for various goods.

        CFS
        Sep 25, 2013 25:24 AM

        Thanks for putting me into a more precise mode.
        I was using the word “inflation” in the common public use of prices increasing, not the technical economics use of excessive money supply. i.e for general readership, not economics scholars.
        Sorry, if that was not obvious.
        I will try to be more specific in my terms in future.

          Sep 25, 2013 25:35 AM

          The public usage is the result of 80 years of state-endorsed Keynesian scholars. Keynesians do not refer to money supply when they mention inflation.

      Sep 25, 2013 25:26 AM

      I pretty much agree with your 2c, CFS

    CFS
    Sep 24, 2013 24:41 PM

    My utter disbelief is why no one has complained about the totally unconstitutional taking of tax dollars or Fed printed dollars and giving it to banks.

    It just amazes me that the Federal Reserve by its printing has increased the indebtedness of the nation by $3.4 trillion over the last few years and a third of that has just been given away; with the rest pretty much wasted on wars or welfare.
    Clearly no one thinks it has to be paid back, so nobody complains or worries.
    But THAT is why the system HAS to collapse. Because it is becoming mathematically impossible to pay it back. When the system collapses anyone who has lent the government money has lost it.
    Probably many who have anything that the government can grab in order to prolong the time before a collapse, will lose much of that too. This is why Jim Sinclair is telling everyone to get their money out of the system.
    Yet people stand around, doing nothing, while this thievery by the government continues.
    Everybody is essentially colluding with the crime.
    It just amazes me.
    Either folks are dumber than I thought they were.
    Or they’re more scared of the Government, or I don’t know what.

    This time the sky really is falling (albeit in slow motion.) Wake up America.

    I don’t know if Obama is doing this deliberately; I certainly want to think no one woulc be that evil.
    However, if you study his background and acquaintances. If you ask if there are any teachings/instructions out there on how to destroy a country, you find that there are AND you find that Obama, from his union days, was intimately familiar with the work, to the extent that he even used some of the techniques in his community activism.

      Sep 25, 2013 25:03 AM

      Dear CFS:

      You might enjoy the Creature from Jykll Island about the creation and purpose of the Fed. the Fed was created to finance governments and cartelize the banking system.

      Google: Rothbard and the Federal Reserve (pdf book)

      If you can’t find, then email me aldridge56@aol.com

      I think you are being too optimistic regarding regarding the financial system.

      The FED CAN ONLY INCREASE money printing not taper because of the law of compound interest. The debt is compounding exponentially so the money printing must INCREASE or debt collapse. Imagine pumping air into a leaky balloon where the tears get bigger and bigger. Or as mal-investment increases and the debt structure grows you need MORE AND MORE Fed intervention.

      The FED is TRAPPED. God help us. Gold may go up, but the country will suffer.

      The good news is that after the collapse we can build again and the young are more libertarian than the old folks.

        CFS
        Sep 25, 2013 25:45 AM

        B.S. The Fed was created by bankers to make money for bankers as you well know, no matter what the propaganda was.
        Or the Fed would not have been created basically in secret, with enabling laws passed during the Christmas period. I did read Creature years ago, and, of course, have been delighted to read comments made by its author more recently, finding it highly amusing his real name is Marx not Parsons.

          CFS
          Sep 25, 2013 25:49 AM

          Or am I getting him confused with the author of “Dying of Money”?

            CFS
            Sep 25, 2013 25:53 AM

            Answering myself. Yes. Jekyll Island was by G. Edward Griffin.

            Who was on Jay taylor’s show a few months ago, as indeed was Parson’s (Marx)

        Sep 25, 2013 25:32 AM

        I have to say, I don’t see any B.S. at all in John Chew’s comment.

          CFS
          Sep 25, 2013 25:42 AM

          I apologize for the B.S. comment.
          I was referring to the “The Fed was created to finance….etc..sentence.
          It is my belief the Fed was Solelt created to enrich bankers. Or there would have been open debate on what dydtem should be used to finance the Government, and there was NOT….All done done in secret, and delivered as a fait accompli.

            CFS
            Sep 25, 2013 25:52 AM

            I’m having vision problems today. Should be:
            Solely
            system in mis-spellings above

            Sep 25, 2013 25:05 AM

            Based on the evidence, I have to agree completely.

            “This Act establishes the most gigantic trust on earth.…When the President signs this Act, the invisible government by the Money Power, proven to exist by the Money Trust Investigation, will be legalized.…The money power overawes the legislative and executive forces of the Nation and of the States. I have seen these forces exerted during the different stages of this bill.…” (Congressman Charles A. Lindbergh, referring to the act which established the Federal Reserve. Congressional Record, Vol. 51, p. 1446. December 22, 1913.)

            Sep 25, 2013 25:00 AM

            Sure it was created to enrich bankers!

        Sep 25, 2013 25:37 AM

        Yes they are more libertarian than the old folks!

      Sep 25, 2013 25:31 AM

      I am still not convinced that the president is attempting to take the country down.

      I am still convinced that he does want the government to give to those who don’t have.

      I guess that is kind of taking the country, as we know it, down isn’t it!

        CFS
        Sep 25, 2013 25:50 AM

        Suggested reading regarding honesty:
        http://shoebat.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/New_IRS_Scandal_052113.pdf

        Suggested google search re: earlier life: Saul Alinsky and Bill Ayres , and look up his connections with them and their philosophy.
        I too am not convinced, since one likes to give benefit of doubt , but I have not seen evidence that he is not out to destroy the country.
        The old walks like a duck, quacks like a duck problem.

    Sep 25, 2013 25:09 AM

    Thank you Cory. With you, Tim I , John Kaiser and others singing from the same hymn-sheet I guess that for those of us invested up in PMs we can sort of hibernate over the coming months. OK, keeping an eye open for what happens on Oct 1 and mid October, but basically retreating from the current craziness until such time as QE infinity finally gives us the ghost. When that happens the noise alone will rouse one and all out of their slumbers!

    Thanks for your stoical work as one of the night-watchmen!

      Sep 25, 2013 25:57 AM

      Thanks for the comment Rev. There are some issues coming down the road that very well could move the PMs much higher. However if these blow away or are brushed under the carpet (such as the more of the same FOMC announcement) then Tim, John, and I believe Doc as well all think that the PMs will continue to trade in a range. We very well could be wrong (none of us are investment advisers) but that is why is important to read headlines and also dig a little deeper when something doesn’t quite add up.

      I for one hope the PMs start to develop a steady and solid move up but I am skeptical in the short term.

    Sep 25, 2013 25:35 AM

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    CFS
    Sep 25, 2013 25:11 AM

    I just hoping PMs preserve buying power, because I don’t know what else can.

    I see inflation and the PMs not keeping up right now.

    I also see vast poverty coming to the 99% in the future and the possibilities are immensely scary. . . . .Confiscation via taxation or theft from those that have to those that haven’t.
    I worked hard to save to enjoy my golden years and don’t want to be thrown on the scrapheap of life.

      Sep 25, 2013 25:03 AM

      And certainly neither do we, CFS!

      Why is honest, hard work not honored?

    CFS
    Sep 25, 2013 25:04 PM

    Because lots of folks nowadays actually believe that hard work is only for morons than don’t know how to game the system.
    Times changed from when you and I were raised and establishing our moral principles.

      Sep 25, 2013 25:10 PM

      Your comments re: times have changed is the understatement of the century!