We start out Thursday with Peter Grandich
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Thanks Al for having Mr. Grandich. He never pulls punches and is first to admit when wrong. Now if the gold haters he speaks of ever have the same courage-lol
My sentiments entirely Frank, A
AGNICO EAGLE UP UP and away no joke robby !
Frankie……are you Trader Rog………….
No Jerry methinks franky is here for the longterm!!
Yes Andrew long and cool !
welcome back frank ie…………..
franky you can be cool……but, I am the long…………..
IF gold holds any price,,,it will be off to the races…………..
The $1340 price level is very critical. I am the only one who is using this level. all other technicians who I respect have various other levels.
I am using the $1340 level because on several occasions now gold has taken out this level only to give it back. It is also the strong central tendency of the price at the level.
On Tuesday once again the $1340 level was breached.
Once again it was given back yesterday, Wednesday.
However the pullback was only mild.
I stated last night gold is ready to make another run at $1340 and sure enough it has.
It now needs to hold this level for three consecutive days, which I full expect it to do.
The taking out of $1340 inflicts great damage on the bear trend.
The bear trend has now been weakend and violated to a great extant.
At this point the next key level will be the psychological $1400 price.
If this is taken out a quick run up to $1500 may be attainable
With gold taking out $1340 and the violation of the bear trend I believe now the longer we stay above the June 28th low the more and more likely that was the low
I also said if gold took out $1340 I would be tempted to buy more
At this point i am contemplating a layering in strategy:
add 20% at $1340
add 30% at $1400
add 50% at $1500
James,
What happened to your SELLING strategy in September. You spent 3 months on this blog threatening – who?..I dont know – yourself? – to sell your positions – what happened? Lost your nerve……got gold ‘religion”. Your a smart guy..just giving you grief – you are one of the most passionate contributors here, hey good for you. Just remember – in the end – it wont matter if you bought it at 1200, 1500 1700…hell…it wont matter if you bought it under $1000…..whatever
ditto
I realize you are attempting to cover your bases, but is it not majorly counterintuitive to buy larger amounts as the price goes higher?
I personally would do the opposite, but . I understand where he coming from.
The contrarian wins. Chasing the price up, buying more as it goes higher is something the layman would do. Not trying to start any fires, just curious of the reasoning behind it. Thanks Al.
Although I wouldn’t do it with gold, there is merit to adding to winners. Gold, more than any other asset, should be bought when it is weak.
Matt, I agree, anyone contemplating a rising market should go all in, layering is for averaging down…but as James states…it won,t make any difference in the end. I just don’t think that day is coming as soon as many think, my new horizon is 5-10 years. I will be selling on the way up To cover living expenses.
Smart man are you, al.
Looking at the daily chart, $1350 means a lot more than $1340. The plunge in April took gold to a low close of $1351.50 ($1321.50 intraday). This level became support until it broke in June. It became resistance in July and support again, briefly, in August. However, from July until now, the 55 day moving average has provided quite a bit of resistance as well. It is currently just over your $1340. This is why there was a little bull/bear battle there this week. This moving average is what is giving some significance to $1340+ at the moment.
So you are going to double down?
Ive been all in with 90% gold and silver as you know.
Ive got about 90k cash on the sidelines that I need to put somewhere.
And to this day I still cant come up with a better place than precious metals.
As far as my strategy of layering in, the reason is simple
1 I already have more than enough gold, so this is all icing
2 with each resistence layer it takes out the likelihood of reuming the secular bull market grows
so the $1340 level is good, so it is worth a little bet
the $1400 level is better, so it is worth a little bigger bet
the $1500 level tells me we have killed the bears and the great bull run will continue
This is worth even a bigger bet.
might seem illogical to most but this is my strategy
besides I bought the great majority of my gold well below these prices
I dont need to send whatever I have left all in now, no need to be greedy
I understand the reasoning, due to it being ‘icing’ as you say. Though I feel making conscious decisions to potentially take higher prices than you had to, is illogical. Especially with your last allotment of cash. Why not take time and put the best detail and hard work into finishing the final touches on the icing of your cake, as opposed to looking at it as something nonchalant to finish up a day’s work. We cannot be lax, or calm. This is the time to make every last penny count.
I would not consider the bear to completely killed until we see a weekly close above the $1555 to $1575 area.
Read Armstrong’s Theories on goldhttp://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/10/
Peter, thank you very much for returning to do commentary’s. We need your input here. Please ignore any criticisms that might take place here as its pretty much part of the territory. I appreciate what you have to say even if I may not agree with you. Again, thanks.
Turns out Andrew McGuire was a fraud. This is bad news for the whole news information sector of the gold market
It will be interesting to see how GATA and KWN handle this.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2013/10/24/cpm-group-alleges-whistleblower-maguire-has-no-metals-history-silver-summit/
This is NOT new…or even news.
With my own ears I heard Christian say this exact same stuff at the 2011 Silver Summit.
Know nothing more about McGuire than anyone else does…but this same crud was tossed around in the debate between Murphy and Christian loudly beat this drum–and nobody cared a lick TWO years ago……. so why do or should anyone now??
…was also a pleasure to shake paws and visit with you there, at that time Al.
The difference is that Maguire’s ex-wife gave her two cents to Christian after April 2013. Christian’s claims seem to now be substantiated.
ex(s)…….always have a point of view……….that is why they are ex(s)
True. Whatever the truth is, I still have no use for Jeff Christian’s opinions.
Matthew….I.agree
What’s the news on Andrew McGuire???
seem that Andrew McGuire…”may”….not be telling the entire truth……but, this is the world we are living………I am not sure that Christian is telling the truth………Christian seems to be an insider, since, he represents some of the establishment………
Ta – I spotted the Forbes story eventually :p
If you can’t disprove the message – which is evidenced there on the charts* – discredit the messenger. Old (last ditch?) strategy!
Rick Ackerman mentioned that McGuire used to frequent his chatroom, and seemed to have quite a positive impression of him. Wonder if Jeff Christian’s ever shared his time & expertise with traders trying to get started without losing their shirts…
*& AFAIK described in the greatest detail in his talk at the “Best of Wyckoff – Wyckoff Rediscovered” seminar in 2010, which is only a google away…
xlurkr…………I have a hard time believing jEFF cHRISTIAN,,,,,just a gut feeling,,,and usually that tells one a lot.
Many people find my strategy of layering in very illogical and faulty.call state they would not do it
Many people find my strategy for layering in illogical and faulty and they would not do it that way.
Let me explain my reasoning.
First as I’ve stated I am already 90% gold silver, so I really don’t even need to add any more to this position.
Second
By only adding 20% now, in the event gold was to go down, even tank and end up in a prolonged bear, I only added another 20% as opposed to a higher amount.
If the situation were different, allocation was different, the timing of the bull market was different, then my strategy would be different.
But for me in this place and time it works fine.
Too many people chase losers and when they are winning they tighten up.
This is a wrong strategy.
Go from stretch to strength
Great story. Classic final picture.I ran acocrss you blog a couple of weeks ago and find it very enjoyable. I’m hoping to get my bike out shortly for my first ride of the season but am dealing with the 17 inches of snow Green Bay got last week.
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