Is gold a bullish trade today?
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“and a little profit too!” I will second that!
Lets cross our fingers, Al. I have my shopping list almost ready and I am in the mood to play.
I would be curious as to what you are looking at.
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Santa Claus rally would be nice!
Mr. Ackerman’s warnings of a market upset in the context of “Taper Talk” is important in the context of rumor that QE has already quietly surpassed $200 Billion a month.
Pretty big number Lore!
There is a very interesting article on Kitco commentaries entitled “China finds secret door leading out of the dollar trap”.
Citing Sun Zhao, President of China National Gold Corporation, the author maintains that that the U.S. and GB have not sold nor delivered any of their Gold Reserves but instead have simply gone to the printing presses to inflate themselves out of their massive debt with fiat currency which will eventually be replaced by a worldwide Gold backed currency and in which case, the U.S will still hold the world’s largest Gold reserves. Perhaps that is why the Treasury Department is so secretive about our Gold Reserves.
Perhaps there is gold in Fort Knox and the NY Fed if the Chinese are correct in their assumptions and that may be the main reason why the Chinese are in a rush to accumulate as much as possible before the new worldwide gold backed currency becomes a reality. Something to think about.
I saw that one yesterday and I had the same thoughts that you did, Dai Uy!
I think energy is going to play a big role in the next global reserve currency, Dai. Commodities of all kinds could also easily be included in the calculation of what is backing and supporting the new money being issued. Honestly I would be surprised if gold had more than a 5 or 10% weighting in the formula and there are good reasons that other participating countries would object. Foremost is that many have insufficient gold to participate to begin with. Any consensus approach to creating a currency that would gain global acceptance would take that into account. Keep in mind that broad participation is key to keeeping the global community fluid and liquid and ensuring trade across all regions and nations. They each need to bring something to the table to offer strength in their regional backing although some weighting based on the current primary currencies would alleviate that issue to some extent. So the strength of a country regarding its productive capacity and exports might also play a role as that would indicate realtive strength and depth of a nation. Obviously a weighting formula could contain almost anything that was generally agreed upon by the major members proposing the initiative. The root of all currencies are indeed resources though whether these be grains, metals, oil or even sugar. If it is SDR’s though the boys in charge might start by coming up with a better name for it!
Bird:
I agree with your analysis. The next question I would pose is whether the dollar will retain its status as the world’s reserve currency. I would say both yes and no. We will have to share that status with China, Russia, GB, perhaps a few others and for those 150 or so other countries that have neither a high GDP, natural resources or gold reserves, and hold dollars, times may indeed become bleak unless in the scenario above some form of basic economic justice comes into play in the mix.
I still believe that countries will eventually resort to a two tiered currency system one for domestic use and one for trade amongst nations. I wish I had a clearer chrystal ball. One thing for certain: Starvation makes for revolutions and wars.
What I find so inenitstreg is you could never find this anywhere else.
Well guys, the stockcharts.com gold point and figure chart actually has a new objective on it :$1350.
My UK listed silver mining stock is up Yuesday but not by much and still below its late June low.
I get confused these days. Maybe it’s a bullish non-confirmation, similar to the way that silver did not confirm gold’s topat $1920 in Aug/Sept 2011 with a new high but instead stalled at $44 never making it near $50 again.
… or maybe it isn’t!
By the way I meant Tuesday not Yuesday. Like I said, I get konfuzed.
I agree here that we may just be seeing some early signs of reaction to the potential of a mood change at the political level or with regards to Fed tinkering in regards to inflation expectations. There have been some voices calling for inflation that is a little more robust especially given the deflator effects of Japanese policy on the Western economies and also with the known surplus capacity in other parts of Asia that threaten to dampen prices in the future. That price spike came as a bit of a surprise to me though as I had been leaning more heavily to believing a break below 1200 was in the cards first. Maybe this is just some natural volatility associated with the bottoming process and short covering as you guys suggest. Year end is closing in. It does look bullish for gold right now though. I sure won’t shed any tears if the bear is finally dead in any case. I think a lot of us would dearly love to start playing the miners on the long side for a change of pace (and a little profit too!).