Will The Gold And Silver Surge Continue?
This is the latest article from Tim Iacono. Tim focuses on the general factors for gold that are finally shifting toward a gold bull bias. These factors include gold inflows into the ETF (rather than the outflows we were experiencing for over a year), gold and silver closing above their 200 day moving averages, and the continued strong demand from out east.
Marc,
If you see gold going to the moon, remember … things aren’t always what they appear.
To illustrate the point …
ARKANSAS CITY (EAP) — A Little Rock woman was killed yesterday after leaping through her moving car’s sun roof during an incident best described as “a mistaken rapture” by dozens of eye witnesses.
Thirteen other people were injured after a twenty-car pile up resulted from people trying to avoid hitting the woman who was apparently convinced that the rapture was occurring when she saw twelve people floating up into the air, and then passed a man on the side of the road who she claimed was Jesus.
“She started screaming “He’s back, He’s back” and climbed right out of the sunroof and jumped off the roof of the car,” said Everet Williams, husband of 28-year-old Georgann Williams who was pronounced dead at the scene.
“I was slowing down but she wouldn’t wait till I stopped,” Williams said. “She thought the rapture was happening and was convinced that Jesus was gonna lift her up into the sky,” he went on to say.
“This is the strangest thing I’ve seen since I’ve been on the force,” said
Paul Madison, first officer on the scene. Madison questioned the man who looked like Jesus and discovered that he was dressed up as Jesus and was on his way to a toga costume party when the tarp covering the bed of his pickup truck came loose and released twelve blow up sex dolls filled with helium which floated up into the air.
Ernie Jenkins, 32, of Fort Smith, who’s been told by several of his friends that he looks like Jesus, pulled over and lifted his arms into the air in frustration, and said “Come back here,” just as the Williams’ car passed him, and Mrs. Williams was sure that it was Jesus lifting people up into the sky as they passed by him, according to her husband, who says his wife loved Jesus more than anything else.
When asked for comments about the twelve sex dolls, Jenkins replied “This is all just too weird for me. I never expected anything like this to happen.”
Irwin,
You are an interesting dude…YES, I get your point by the way. And no, not so much a “going to the moon” move…just a move that defies what CFS so poignantly outlined down below. I am just saying WHO KNOWS……we could fall back to a TRIPLE BOTTOM…who cares I aint selling…and you can try to pry my “honest money” out my dead cold hands…the GOOD Lord forbid. The fiat currency paradigm is about to get its arse kicked…..big time….YIKES!
BTW,
That would be an hilarious story if it wasnt so TRAGIC…God bless her…life can be a bit odd sometimes…is that even the right word…no…life can be simply indescribable….yeah thats better….unbelievably indescribable….
Good comment Marc.
A really sad story. Interesting comment on being over zealous. I really don’t think approves of that.
Thanks, Irwin. That is the best story of year . . . so far.
Marc and Wayne;
It’s an old story .. no idea if it’s true;
-probably not:)
Toga parties rock!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1X1uOUBZOs
Men go crazy together in a crowd only to slowly come to their senses slowly individually.
A classic filmography editing job on SHOUT.
Just when I thought I had heard it all. How bizzarre!
I checked it out. The story is NOT true. Still funny.
Is that really a true story, Irwin?
“I just thinking about how people want to see some pullbacks in the PM’s this week because its “healthier’ as we move higher.”
Healthier for whom?
The gold and silver shorts and users? In my opinion they have had enough free to almost no price silver and gold. If they want the goods then it is time for them to pay what the owners require or go without.
Hum..another excellent point…
That’s right. If you want my silver or gold, you pay up ($100 & $6000 respectively).
Hi, Marc
you are right that we could wind up with something of a ‘freeze out’, in which those who are looking for a pull-back as a secondary opportunity to enter the market, are disappointed.
Of course, profit taking on the way up is part of the normal course of things. But it is possible to have shallow pull-backs (on light volume) — that is, a market which consolidates more “sideways” than “down”.
My own approach is to sell some trading positions as mining stocks get overbought on weekly charts, and to hold on to core positions. If I then get a chance to re-load the trading positions, I will.
Have a great day.
THANK U Eric..see my comment below..and as Matthew knows…I MEAN IT! I am not here to glad-hand people; I am here to tell AND look for TRUTH!!! End of story!
Eric, very wise. I plan to do the same based on the charts.
I still say gold forever and mining stocks for the shorter term
Excuse the WWll rally adjective, I have been watching too much “THE WORLD AT WAR” with Sir Lawrence Olivier narrating…gosh what a heck of an actor that guy was -AND what a iconic narrator of this very, very historically well done documentary.
Historically, all stocks and commodities show the same characteristics. Unless the rise is slow there is a tendency to become overbought. That IS where we now are. ALL overbought conditions come back into normality either by a pull-back or a stagnation of price for a period of time.
We may not know what will happen. Maybe this time it will be different, but the probability is that we will probably have a pull-back or stable price for a while.That, I do know.
CFS, If it doesn’t happen in the near term, you’ll probably see it begin in March.
I also know that there is a lot of potential money out there, which could dramatically affect the precious metals market. Because this market is relatively small, money moving out of bonds or out of general stocks and into the precious metals market could drive up prices much higher.
Does it always have to be about PAPER…………
THAT Jerry…is an EXCELLENT point!!!
thanks Marc……….
Chalk it up to the post Groundhogs Day rally!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Gold is now overbought?
I thought after getting slaughtered for two years it was oversold?
Not sure how something that is $600 off its high is overbought?
This begs the question what should be the normal price of gold?
I personally don’t believe a pullback is necessary to be a healthy bull market.
It’s pulled back enough.
I say let it keep going up and up, create a short squeeze and have momentum players pile in and send it over $2000.
SURE, James why the H___NOT!!!????
Gold is somewhat overbought on the daily chart, but could easily become much more overbought before a pullback or choppy sideways action. Dips should be bought (my opinion) since the much more important weekly chart looks great and is far from overbought. The monthly chart is looking better all the time but is still on a sell signal (and probably years away from the next overbought reading).
Matthew,
I think I am going to keep averaging into GLDX……until I run out of funds…crazy?…maybe or maybe not? That is why I follow you very closely….and DOC and Eric…and a lot of the guys that seems to know what the hell they are talking about!!
All the best to you and your wife..and family!….:)
Thank you Marc, all the best to you and yours!
Getting close to a murder of shorts now. They will be sweating bullets. Covering could result in a surprise rise. Maybe the buys who predicted a 100 dollar burst will be correct after all.
I would guess not, Bird.
I am not saying gold has to have a big pull-back. I am just saying it is currently overbought.
There are several ways to determine the situation and history has taught us that when the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is above 70, then a stock is overbought.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD
Currently the RSI is 72.
All I can suggest is that you go and look at the charts of a few dozen randomly picked stocks and observe what happened after a stock had had an RSI greater than 70. You will find that in the vast majority of cases it went down. Not forever, not always by a lot, but most often it went down.
With bigger stocks or diversified, sector-tracking ETFs, I agree, but when it comes to quality companies, especially smaller ones, during a sector-wide rally, there can be big moves as the RSI goes from 70 to 80 (or 90). There are so many other factors that can also influence how I might treat that 70 area.
Take a look at AMM.TO, it went over RSI 70 on Jan 15. It then went up another 20%+ over the next six sessions. By Jan 30, it had come all the way back but did not go lower than where it had been when it first hit 70 –despite the fact that the RSI was now 55. It then rallied nearly 50% from that very quick pullback. With the 55dma now near the price seen on Jan 15, those that sold or deferred buying will probably not even get as good a price as they could have when the stock technically overbought. They now need nearly a 30% decline just to get another shot at the price they passed up –never mind a better deal.
This is how bull markets leave everyone behind, and this young bull is off to a great start in this respect. Haste is rarely a virtue in markets, but if this turn from bear to bull is the real deal, those who recognize it first, and lasso it quickly , will come out way ahead.
I don’t disagree with you Matthew. I was trying to keep the concept simple for bird.
Thanks for the help CFS. How did I ever make it this far in life without your help. By the way, gold did continue to become even more overbought before finally falling back a few dollars but silver has continued to climb to come within 3 cents of 22.00 dollars. If only those “simple concepts” you offer were evidence of every turn we might all be billionaires trading on RSI’s alone (how did that work out for you guys who missed all the declines by the way?). The fact is that RSI’s do not give conclusive proof of turns as you well know.
I would guess not, Bird.
Not sure what you are referring too, Al.
oh, oh
now Lester’s gone to the other side;
time to pull out my Larry.
“First, and foremost, the January low that did not happen merely means the gold market is undergoing a “cycle inversion” — one that pushes the final low off to the next important cyclic period for a major low, which is May.”
~Larry Edelson
http://moneytalks.net/topics/timing/11858-dont-be-fooled-by-golds-glitter.html
Larry makes a good case and he could well be right. Gold however has already broken above his first line of defence at 1320 and could well be headed for the second at 1449. We will be watching this play out with fascination no doubt. He wisely notes that buyers should stay disciplined and on that note I heartily agree with him.
It is interesting he has also targeted a low point at 967 which is just a dollar below my own bottom call of 968 which theoretically still holds if gold begins to fail. We shall see. Larry writes:
“Also note the Fibonacci extensions I have drawn on the chart for you. If gold’s rally ends near its current level — an “e” wave of a fourth wave upward correction — then the next leg down, the fifth wave, would find gold falling to at least $1,062.50, and more likely, even lower, to about the $967 level”.
Well if gold hits either his number or mine then one of us will surely be in line for some kind of award…..they give awards for correct calls don’t they?? No? Shit, I want something!
Remember this:
On December 23, 2013 at 9:28 am,
Matthew says:
If we see 968, then we will also see 961.85. You’ll see. 😉
——-
You thought I was joking, but notice that Larry said: “I find it fascinating that on my system models I have major support and sell signals at the $1,059 and $962 levels.”
Is that your bottom call then or just a hedge in case your bull thesis does not pan out? I ask because your comment was made in sarcasm, not as a specific bottom call (which you have NEVER yet offered). Why not make that call now, Matty?
Did you notice that I started that comment with “if?” Remember your response?
On December 23, 2013 at 10:41 am,
Bird Man says:
Dead wrong as usual. But still funny.
———
Bird, what kind of idiot would predict $968 but at the same time be certain that the price can’t go another $6 lower? I was not being sarcastic but not rounding to 962 was meant to be humorous. Calling a potential move to the penny is Rick Ackerman’s turf, not mine.
As for calling the bottom, who cares? As it turned out, I made my biggest buys in years at the bottom in December while YOU were still a cocky bear.
On December 4, when GDXJ was $29, I said: “I am happy to accumulate companies that are trading at one-half to one-tenth of book value (as long as their projects are good and they have enough cash).” At the time, even Al, said “I think it is much too early to consider the miners at this point in time!”
What were you doing, Bird? You don’t tell us because to do so would remove your ability to concoct whatever reality you want later on. Conversely, I was explicit about my actions, and left myself nowhere to hide if I was wrong.
My first meaningful buying in 2014 will happen on the first meaningful pullback –which I expect soon, but possibly from a substantially higher level in some cases.
Now that you’ve called the bottom, I think I might soon hedge my (long) exposure. 🙂
That was humour? Wow.
You thought it was funny at the time. But what’s really funny is your delusion. You’re sure of your target but say I’m “dead wrong” about a potential move just $6.15 lower.
Remember this?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_Kh7nLplWo
It still applies.
I notice you still have not responded to my posts on commodities as currency nor the ones discussing the fur trade. Cat got your tongue? Silence usually is a form of assent and agreement. Chirp chirp Matty.
Okay, Larry!
And if Edelson does not put in moving averages, he will not see positive indicators like crossing MA(200).
I don’t necessarily say he’s wrong about a low in May, I just look at short-term indicators, because those determine my immediate market decisions.
CFS
Couple days ago you asked for chapter, verse, and link.
Now that you have it .. you’re still not happy? wtf dude?
Are you a different Irwin than our regular Irwin?
Same old Irwin, Birdman.
In the previous thread, Bobby asked – who called the top? So I did a bit of digging. I couldn’t find anyone who called it before Aug 22, 2011 but after the first $200 were shaved off gold price, which happened in three days, I found a few who said – look out below, this is going to be ugly – Larry Edelson was one of them.
Gold then bounced back to make a new intra-day high in early September, before dropping $300 by the end of the month.
Now Larry and others aren’t quite as adamant as they were two years ago; they play both sides of the fence by calling for higher price, and then give an argument for lower price … if they have the guts to say anything at all.
Gold price action from 2011
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&st=2011-06-30&en=2011-12-31&id=p40945693167
Larry could still be right. We will keep the warnings in the back of our minds. We should expect volatility to pick up in any case. There will be a push and pull taking place as sentiments shift, some longs from the past finally get a chance to get out and increased speculation in both directions from other quarters. Should be a lot of fun if you like trading swings!
1450……..gold…..IN THE BAG
BAG IT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Big Trader, Because?
Good to see AU finally eclipse the 200dma, but we are bumping into/lifting the upper limit of the upper Bollenger Band; thus as Doc et al suggested this weekend: a short pull back would not hurt the charts but could be healthy — especially if we stay in the upper band during the pull back..
Birdman – you just declared the bear market in gold over.
How do you get an award if gold now goes sub $1000
Seems you made the wrongest of calls then
Not exactly James. At this point it has become less than relevant to me if we see my original bottom or not. I can still be persuaded by a good sensible argument and Larry does offer that. Either this way or that we are in the bottom range of golds declines so catching the exact lows is not really necessary and it is not worth staking pride on it either.
You know its funny..I just thinking about how people want to see some pullbacks in the PM’s this week because its “healthier’ as we move higher. I dont know, guys – things are so strange in the markets – because they are not FREE FLOWING. Wouldnt it be interesting if the PM’s just kept going up and up and up…with hardly any pullbacks. I mean REALLY. Hey, check out and revisit the last two and half years of the downtrend. NOW, see those two HUGE FLASHCRASHES with the real biggie coming in April of last year. Who is to say that NOW “they” want a “BLITZKREIG” rally lasting a LONG time. WHO KNOWS??? SH____ who REALLY KNOWS. I dont. AND lets really be honest here AND with all due RESPECT……neither does anyone on this blog….and expert or not!!