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What to Expect From Janet Yellen

April 1, 2014

The overwhelming consensus is … nothing will change. Although QE is being tapered the facts remain, the Fed has a massive balance sheet with no plan to unwind this and interest rates will remain at all time lows for the foreseeable future.

Here is a section of the post that really stood out to me.

“The real question is whether Yellen and her fellow travelers will accept a recession that most likely will occur as QE ends. The Fed likes to think of QE as a jump start, a one-time boost, a helping hand, etc. But these are false analogies. QE funds projects that cannot exist in its absence; therefore, when QE ends or even slows down, these projects will be revealed to be unprofitable. No amount of cost cutting will make them profitable. They were born of QE and they will die when QE ends. The only question is whether the Fed will accept the necessary recession or will jump right back into money printing. If it does the latter, we can expect an even greater bust in the future.”

Click here for the full article.

Discussion
3 Comments

    Under Yellen….”nothing will change” is correct………..
    Because the DOJ, COURTS, CONGRESS ….condone the action., and all are benefitting under the current arrangement, and none have gone to JAIL.
    AS long as WE THE PEOPLE, have 1% controlling 99% of ALL THE MONEY……IT is not going to change.
    And as long as we have the FALSE idea, that the GOVT represents the common man, we are screwed………

    Apr 01, 2014 01:36 AM

    Even if the FED did the right thing, there are social changes occuring with more and more men like myself who refuse marriage and all it implies:

    Men will jump through all sorts of hoops to get sex, but even they have their limits as to the crap they will put up with – and for many, the shit is overflowing. Without the hope of getting a family due to the dangerous climate of the sexual marketplace, the fact that being good providers is no longer a viable mating strategy, and that the alphas build soft harems of their own, the majority of beta men return to hedonism and stop production. This is an observable effect in Japan’s “grass-eating youths”, which 60% of young men between the ages of 20-35 self-identify themselves as. They stop wanting to climb the corporate ladder, they stop working hard, and instead produce just enough to get by and pursue their own hobbies and interests on their spare time.

    This is what Paul Elam meant when he said: “Ladies, be afraid when men stop thinking with their dicks.”

    The Japanese government is terrified of this demographic in their already sinking economy. (See in one of my previous posts: the handsome tax) This step is when MGTOW moves out of the sphere of the personal and begins to catch the eye of the political, with reactions that will be discussed shortly later. Sometimes, the decision to disengage economically will be a conscious decision to do so, other times not so much. In the end, though, it all boils down to the fact that they aren’t cranking out the tax dollars like they used to, much to the worry of many governments.

    Apr 01, 2014 01:19 PM

    Interesting article. This is along the lines of what I was discussing yesterday after having reviewed the ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators wherein we can see that the economy looks to again be turning down as the business cycle concludes. Yes, we will have another recession. One cannot be avoided. As far as I know, none have ever been avoided.

    All that has happened is the current one was forestalled by the strategic introduction of Twist and QE3 however it still lies latent and may be getting underway as early as this summer. Some will suggest the delay might imply that the next cycle lows will therefore be deeper than usual although I am not sure that logic can be depended upon.

    One concern we should have though is that US stock markets are already toppy and many would agree they are overpriced on a wide variety of metrics. So a stock market that is highly valued is going to likely meet an economy that wants to slow down as those two forces coincide. Those who know their cycle theory for recessions will appreciate the risks all the better.

    I will suggest that the Fed will not intervene to artificially prop assets up though.

    Some are already thinking interventions and more QE are a given once times get trying. Others assume it as if a fact. Lets not hold our breathe. That task is well beyond the scope of even the biggest and strongest of central Banks. At best they might have some medicine on hand to soften the blow but it is inconceivable they would attempt to put monetary supports under a decline that seems to be inevitable if not late this year then sometime in 2015.

    And why would they? The world has lived through innumerable recessions in the past that were not attended by the surgeries of exceptional intervention and monetary easing. We lived through those just fine and this one will no be different. It is far more probable that the Fed will seek to reinforce the idea that the economy has already healed and therefore any slowdown is going to be just the garden variety kind that we will tough out without soothers and warm blankets.

    Expect interest rates to rise leading into this period. Rising rates have a happy habit of spurring new borrowing and credit growth while creating new investment as the reality sinks in that the cheap money days will soon be gone. Rising rates are also more typically associated with improving housing markets as well even if that seems counterintuitive to some.

    So the pressure is now on to bring a quick exit to QE’s and the MBS buying program in advance of a slowdown that will not be factually known until at least two quarters after it has begun. That might take us to the spring of 2015. Rates will very likely begin rising soon thereafter which will appear stimulative of the economy as borrowing again ramps up and signs of expansion appear against a backdrop of a factual slowdown.

    What will be interesting is how stock markets respond once QE has finally ended and as earnings reports start to come in a little more lackluster and below consensus estimates. Timing is clearly important here though and I have little doubt the Fed is cognizant of how carefully it must proceed as the exit from its current program is met by an economy that appears to have again become unresponsive.

    Thank goodness we will have China to blame for all our troubles later!