Gold and the markets
Hour 1:
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Hour 2:
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Hour 1:
- Segment 1: Chris Martenson of Peak Prosperity discusses the markets.
- Segment 2-3: From Switzerland
Dan Kurz, an investment adviser for Naples Asset Management, discusses gold from an American prospective. - Segment 4: Glen Downs, Chief of Staff for Congressman Walter Jones, weighs in on the question are the Republicans selling out?
- Segment 5: Sean Brodrick of The Oxford Club, Richard Postma, AKA Doc, and Rick Ackerman of Ricks Picks provide the weekly wrap on the markets. Most agree that we could be starting a bear market.
- Segment 6: Our expert panel continues the discussion adding gold into the mix.
- Segment 7-8: Jeff Deis
t, President of the Mises Institute, discusses the political establishment.
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Segments 2 and 3…need more be said??
He is a very good guy.
Well if it is a skimming game then gold bugs had best worry. Maybe not yet because trading is really thin for metals shares. But later when the game changes and the resource rally finally gets under way. These guys will be scooping everyone from dawn to dusk and the gold market will get a great deal more attention if that is where the money is being made.
TO ALL FELLOW GOLD COMRADS…..you want the best current analysis. FOR FREE TODAY
You need to read at gold-eagle.com a new article out today by Michael Noonan.
GOLD AND SILVER THE WEEKEND SURPRISE.
That puts everything in perspective. Michael is on top of the food chain too. I know his
work well.
THATS SUMS IT UP AND EVERYTHING ELSE IS…..BS. …High odds…
IMVHO…….FWIW……..enjoy and don’t forget to step on a few gold bears on the way out. ……. …………………………………………………………..( its encouraged )
Or there is this alternate article:
More Weakness Ahead for Precious Metals – Jordan Roy-Byrne
http://moneytalks.net/topics/precious-metals/12445-more-weakness-ahead-for-precious-metals.html
Jordan….well then go listen to Rambus who was short at the bottom and negative the
whole move from Dec. 13.
The guy is better than Rambus but his record is less than reliable.
Micheal is very shrewd and above average in the top of his peers.
Bird
Mickey Mouse…URL…..From perma gold bears site could have served just as well.
YOU NEED TO DO BETTER… Micheal is way above Jordan
Let me remind you what Rick Rule just said.
ANYONE WHO IS NEGATIVE ON THE METALS WILL BE DESTROYED.
Rick Rule has a track record that is second to none almost.
There’s your competitors…Bird…get gold bear therapy or rehab.
Doc. Is going all in soon as well. Very astute with his views.
GOLD TRAIN LEAVES THE STATION WITH A MAJOR RISE
You want to be there. Invested….before …with tickets in your hand.
Why don’t you try reading my posts for a change. I am actually bullish gold long term.
You vacillate with your views from my experience. Sorry just the way you
portrayed yourself with gold.
However, that’s the past. The future is what we make it. Nothing is guaranteed
in the spec biz.
UNLESS YOU HAVE THE SECRET KEY TO THE FINANCIAL MARKETS.
Gold trade is not a 100 percenter but its one I can’t help but like.
Or I would just move on to some nice profits short term that are guaranteed.
You can’t help embrace a gold market with spectacular gains on ..AUTO PILOT.
We would see years of these kinds of gains too.
HOPE YOU CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT. Very very few will though.
Doc. will, have no doubt about that. He has vision. That’s what it takes
Typo…..GOLD IS NOT A 100 PERCENTER IN THE SHORT RUN.
The only issue is like I always said.
YOU HAVE TO BE IN TO WIN.
If it does surprise the most astute traders and it will…a big rise would
lock them out. Then getting in… the pain could be much worse later.
WHIPSAWED into huge losses. Gold is not going to corporate with
anyone. Whether its now or gold at 1800. The trading plans will eventually
fail.
Reminder…Jordan is a very young gentleman who does is best.
By no means can he light a candle to Michael Noonan who is
has over 30 years of commodities trading under his belt.
One of the best minds in the business too. Who you gonna
believe.
THATS UP TO YOU. and others out there.
What is ridiculous Bird is anything you say is almost repudiated by you the next day, contradictions are your norm. DT
For example? You keep making accusations but I notice they are never backed by anything but hot air. This is a fluid market. You cannot trade it without being flexible. Chart behavior can vary radically week by week. So what are we discussing? Long term, medium term or day trades? The problem is not mine but yours because you are in an inflexible thinker and thus subject to the worst the market dishes out. Try to discern what is happening and don’t be such a stick in the mud or your losses will be perpetual.
That is probably my last post to you. Time for you to take your man-love obsession elsewhere…..you know, like a gay bar.
Thanks for the link HH.
Your welcome Andrew. Michael N. …is highly regarded in the business.
However, I don’t trust the person just because there good for everything
including trading recommendations.
His judgment here is excellent though…. but patience is always required.
It falls in line with my views. We must keep our conviction based on truth
and facts. Michael gets ★★★★★ from me on that article.
Gold comrads need good anaylsis. The best we can get.
ditto on the good anaylsis
Jerry…Andrew…..ALL GOLD COMRADS
usswatchdog.com
Craig Paul Roberts new interview. Best part starts at 15 minutes.
This is the best ever sincere interview with Dr. Roberts….IMVHO
Sorry if you have slready listened everyone needs to hear this.
Lots of truth in this interview. EXCELLENT ★★★★★
Have seen the interview already HH. Yep Dr Roberts is one of the good (God-fearing) guys, as Is Greg Hunter.
USAWATCHDOG…….is a bi-weekly read for me….always great info……….
I knew you guys were on top of it.
Regarding Micheal N.
I read it very quickly before I posted that message Geopolitics will affect gold.
War depends how bad. All depends how serious everything gets. I think he
missed there and 2014 won’t be like 2013. But I think the surprise will come
to pass. He gets ☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆. If it happens… Micheal called that one.
The devaluation part that could happen over a weekend …the surprise.. is very good
anaylsis.
Awesome segment#1 with Chris!!
Ann, if you enjoyed Seg 1 with Chris Martenson you’ll especially enjoy his discussions with Alastair Macleod, A
Reverend- Where would i go to access Chris and Alastair? TIA.
Found the link below, Thanks, Reverand!
Rev. Andy:
Thanks for sharing the dialogue between Martenson and Macleod.. Since I’m a rather slow learner, I’ll be listening to it at least once more……………………..
I’m the same Dai Uy – very slow but getting there in stages!! Best, A
al. I have to disagree, Bill O reilly is the biggist jerk I have ever seen. I have little respect for anyone that would speak with or listen him.
not to offend Chris here, he does a great job, just dont understand why he would speak with oreilly other that for promotion.
Should have attached it!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B92SncG4UrM&feature=em-uploademail
He is a good guy! (Speaking about Chris.)
Tell me why. Thanks
Enjoy the show. Just a suggestion, if someone is breathing loudly into the microphone, and typing loudly on their keyboard, they should mute their mic. It is a distraction and makes for (sometimes) difficult listening. Otherwise, this show is tremendous. I enjoy the differences of opinion, and nobody should take offence to the comments of the participants. Myself, I dread the thought of a society where gold trades for several thousands of dollars an ounce. Just as I am fearful of receiving a large insurance payment because of the death of a loved one. For me, precious metals are simply an insurance policy, and I hope that I never have to cash in big.
Bill O’Reilly has a significant following. A smart guy, but he must remain within his arcs of fire. He is a weak man with questionable moral values. His cruel verbal attack on the son of a 911 victim was disgusting.
Very tired of hearing about only having gold for insurance purposes.
I thin this myth has been exposed and shattered on Numerpus occasions already.
Buy gold because you are speculating the price will go up, period.
James:
What difference does it make?
Did not hear that. Do you have a source?
About the recording I agree and we simply forget sometimes.
I said it before and will say it again.
When gold hit $1900 an ounce the people who owned gold were dancing around in there livings rooms. They were not saying “that’s ok it’s only for insurance purposes”
Stop kidding yourselves
james, you didn’t think that way a couple years ago when we two exchanged ideas as I was in the , its an investment camp….what may I ask changed your mind or am I incorrect.
Not kidding myselg, The Great
You are right James. That “insurance” theme cropped up right after gold fell like a rock through 1500 and it finally dawned on the gold bugs that the market really was in full reverse. I had not heard anyone say it before then. It was just a way for them to rationalize their mounting losses.
The problem was it was also an excuse to hold and not sell. They could always say “I keep this for insurance”. And so they held. Mostly physical but in other cases mining stocks too. And they kept holding until their investments had dropped by half or more depending on how it was allocated to silver or elsewhere.
Ive heard “gold as a hedge on inflation” since I was a child.
Last couple of years word insurance was used.
I think its the same thing.
We all know the argument of wages increase with inflation etc.
Gold mearly sits and retains purchaseing power over time.
That’s the “hedge” or “insurance”
Sell because it increases in fiat? why?
Only way generaly a person buys gold is with “extra” cash anyway.
Or has planned a regular purchase program?
I understand sell if it comes time in a persons life, maybe it gets overvalued but otherwise why?
Its not like your loseing purchaseing power. Whats the rush?
I think “hedge””insurance” are acceptable terms.
They might not be perfect terms but at least it shows an idea as to why its owned.
If owning it is just to increase fiat, why choose gold over silver to invest in?
HEY BB………..did you read……….FED(BLM) ran off by cattle rancher supporters,,,
since, you posted yesterday…, news at AOL………….
The Thugs, in Govt. ..have woke up the real Americans……….
I didn’t read it ootb.
But I do find it interesting that your the only poster mentioning it.
From so much talk about liberty and how “rotton” the government is, I would think people would be pleased at an opportunity to defend liberty with a mear phone call or e mail.
Starting to look as tho liberty really doesn’t mean that much to people.
Oh well, “when people do nothing”
HOORAH FACISM!!
Anyway, lets see if the people willing to put their lives on the line can do anything.
bb………I am reminded …during the Revolutionary War……..
When the American colonist thought all was lost , and the British had ,occupied Charleston, SC. Harbor and town. The British , all cocky and such decided they would venture up to Tenn. and capture the Gap and surrounding area. To the dismay of the British, they ran into a few Mountain men who kicked their butts, and sent them back running, and so was the beginning of the end of CRONWALLIS(SP) . They were only a few and quite good at marksmanship, and had a little spirit, for those were the one’s that had earlier came out of Jamestown , which left England, for FREEDOM of RELIGION and just plan FREEDOM………….tHE SAME type of people are still around and are the good ole boys that know how to use a weapon, and are not afraid of fighting for FREEDOM, and if anyone doubts that……they need to go to some gun shows around the country.
some typo as usual, but, you get the idea………..plan…..plain
Well ootb, if the guys fighting wear sandels they have a chance, the American military has repeatedly shown they cant defeat people wearing sandels.
I think they wear flip flops and have Tommy Bahama t-shirts, and like Nashville music.
James(the lesser) I agree 100%!! Doesnt money factor in the insurance purpose? If someone denies that then why buy gold and silver!
I personally purchase pm’s because I believe that they are the ultimate money.
Does anyone know whats up with silver?
Unless your period is short, or you are using leverage, these prices are a gift. My point is who really cares when one knows the true value of it. It’s volatile… gold on steroids… probably the recipient of severe manipulation. You should buy some more physical, or a lot at these prices. Not investment advice.
The more I think about it, the more I think you and those in your camp are correct, Brad.
Yes, it is back over $20 today. Up is the right word!
I suppose if you are heavily invested in metals, you would celebrate their rise in price. For me, I’m only at 15%. Perhaps I am not as hopeful of the collapse of the economic system as are many on this forum, who are more concerned for their wealth than the well-being of those that are on the receiving end of rabid dollar devaluation.
Some people are overcome by their own greed.
We’re not HOPING for anything…just READING the tea leaves
Ignorance…this time…will not be bliss…protect yourself from the inevitable.
standard procedure Tom, maybe educating the kids is something to consider.
Ive done what I could for mine, they seem to buy small amounts on a regular basis.
Or real estate or a host of other things.
Valuable lesson B
It’s bad that it has come to this…i don’t see progression in our future…just dispair
Every black cloud has a silver lining, Tom! Don’t let the bastards get you down!
And that, Rand, is the nemesis of much investing.
Original jj – I don’t think so. If that was the impression I gave you then I stand corrected.
Although maybe it is just semantics.
Yes gold is insurance against fiat currency debasement, but I didn’t buy it for insurance.
I bought it to make a profit, but use it for insurance
I guess one can label their intent as whatever, I bought in March 2003 as a purchasing power protection seeing as the US$ had topped and everything priced in US$ from oil to gold was going to be repriced higher as the devaluation of the $ continued, that really has changed since gold topped in 2011 now its been basically a trend channel trading instrument.
We’ve seen all around the globe those that had gold as currency protection serve them very well from the tanking the Euro$ took years back to the rupee to the $Yen….those holding gold protected their wealth vs central bank actions devaluing their homeland currency.
Certainly an astute move in 2003, original jj!
That “but” should be “not” in that last statement, smart keypads sometimes aren’t so smart
I just think too many people have the idea that everything else will crash and only gold will go up. This is their insurance. I don’t buy that.
I always have to ask two questions:
“insurance against what?” And “would you be happy if you needed to cash in all your gold today to use as insurance?”
All one has to do is put up a chart og gold, oil, S&P 500 or basically anything between the period of 2008-09….DEFALTION cause everything!!! to be sold off and as it did the US$ rose 12 cents!!! within the US$ Index….that so called insurance approach whacked your $ value big time………..
James, I do agree with you regarding the insurance. BUT, this time – if you dont have gold as “FIRE INSURANCE” for this market you are in DEEP TROUBLE……because the FIRE is at our doorstep!!!!!! Why not have insurance???? YOU will NEED it…PERIOD! End of story.
Ditto Marc, I can’t see too many folk selling their PMs at a profit this time around. Maybe when sanity eventually returns, although why not like many Indians just simply pass our gold and jewellery down for generations?
I agree. Gold had a chance to rise sharply this week but it was held back by the banks below 1325. They are not letting it rise if the US dollar is falling. When the dollar starts rising again gold might bounce back and move up. The falling dollar has not helped it. The dollar is good insurance and can be used in an instant for purchases. The dollar is not going to fall so much that prices double or triple in stores. It is still the number one currency in the world.
The stock market could go through a deep correction with the s&p down to below the 200 day eventually (to 1700?) but the general market will just bounce back strongly in a few months (FED supported) or earlier while gold stocks get crushed and bounce back for a brief sharp rally this summer lasting a few weeks in this bear market which just seems to go and on. When the general market is falling hard the gold sector goes down with it and when the general market starts showing good strength that hurts the gold sector again. Gold only does well with stable general market that is flat to slightly positive month to month.
No, The Greater I would not be happy if that were the case! No sane person would!
The problem with the Republican Party as a whole is that it stand for everything but its own platform and respect nothing, including our Constitution and more specifically our Bill of Rights. The corrupt manipulate the befuddled while the blind lead the blind, and obedience to the overlords trumps intelligence in every case except for a precious few anomalies. Wall Street is the master and money the blood of life.
Spoken like a true Libertarian bj!
I agree 100 percent that the US should not be the world police. However, devils advocates say… “If you could free someone tied to train track before the train comes you have a moral obligation to do that”. So when applied to the genocide going on in some of these countries people argue that the US should intervene if they can. Can they… yes? Even though they can not afford it.
Interesting comment Dan
Natural gas. Does anyone have a suggestion on the Canadian market?
Try this interview from Michael Campbell and Josef Schachter, bb. Discussion of Nat Gas starts around 9:50 in the second of three interviews.
Michael Campbell’s Daily Commentary April 11th
http://moneytalks.net/upcoming-shows.html
I am seeing optimism for that sector bb.
Canadian Oil Sands (COS-TORONTO) is one of the good companies in oil and gas. I think Suncor is the biggest. These stocks have moved up to much so the charts look too strong and not a good buy now. When a chart looks too strong it is time to get out not move in. I prefer the copper & coal producer: Tech resources (TCK on NY). It has had a sharp move up and is correcting now. Much lower than the 52 week high of 30. It is at 22.50. Pays around 3.7% dividend.
Teck actually hit around $45 in 2011 so there is great potential in this stock with an upside as good as GDX but with much lower risk and certainty of good gains and a good dividend yield.
You know what they say about markets. When the trend is telling us something in more than just our own backyard it is sometimes good to pay attention. So why do I mention that?
Well stocks were not just down in the US on Friday. It was global.
All of Europe and Asia were also down. So was the TSX in Canada, Mexico’s Bolsa and Britains FTSE. So were both India’s major exchanges, the Nifty and Sensex. This is probably worth a footnote here today since a lot of people are wondering what is in store next week.
Stock markets were also down in South America, the Middle East and Africa for many (not all) of the exchanges. This is unusual as daily losses covered the vast majority of markets and most stock exchange activity across the world. I think it should be monitored because it could be warning us that something more significant is underway.
Anyone else have a thought here?
Nobody? Sheesh….all you people think about is gold. OK, so let me help out here.
The Dot-Com burst, Asian Economic Crisis, the 9-11 declines, Global Financial Crisis, October 97 crash, Chinese stock bubble of 2007, European Sovereign Debt Crisis, Dubai credit crisis of 2009 and even the August 2011 mini crash all had one big thing in common.
They all caused stock markets across the globe to fall together.
So what is going on here? The markets are warning us all is not well in Dodge and yet we have not had a trigger. When global equity markets decline together it is usually a sign of serious stress. Remember that we are a herd and herds tend to shift in groups. Something is pushing us right now even if it is not on the news.
Although we can point to many issues such as Fed tapering, potential interest rate hikes, the advent of QE in Europe or even the serious slowdown in China, we don’t have any single trigger to point at and say Ah-Hah…..that is the culprit today.
Maybe it really is Ukraine and Russia’s aggression that is spooking markets.
Precious metals stocks did not move up on Thursday/ Friday in a meaningful way even though gold did rise (as I had been anticipating). The reason in hindsight is because stock indices were not performing in the positive anywhere on the planet. In any case those stocks are not what is on the radar of folks who were getting margin calls last week.
On Friday we were left hanging. Not knowing for certain from a technical perspective which way stocks might be going on Monday morning. There is indecision as charts came near but did not penetrate lows convincingly. Some stopped just shy of giving us a little better insight.
All I was trying to point out to the readers here is that we are experiencing a global phenomenon that should be of keen interest to all who trade precious metals or stocks. When markets move together like this it is a wake up call.
Sometimes they do ring a bell.
“So what is going on here? The markets are warning us all is not well in Dodge and yet we have not had a trigger. When global equity markets decline together it is usually a sign of serious stress. Remember that we are a herd and herds tend to shift in groups. Something is pushing us right now even if it is not on the news.”
I could not agree more, Bird.
Heres a thought Bird. It means something.
My uneducated guess is the qe around the world that went to investers in markets are takeing the cue that QE is being “tapered”, so they are withdrawing profits.
Pretty simple, but I think its walkin like a duck.
Yeh I do have a thought – I think that if not now, then soon, that something more significant is underway!
The odds seem to favor that happening.
OK….so lets go one step further. The US Dollar has bottomed. It is very likely it will rise next week and start to snuff out gold as happens so often. But what else does it portend in light of the prior comments? And what does it mean at a time when US techs, momentum stocks and biotech are getting squashed all at once?…..thing is we don’t know why some things happen or why they correlate to charts. The dollar often rises along with bonds as flight to safety issues unfold though. Gold often gets dumped when stocks experience a correction or crash. And bonds rise as rates fall. A big correction will send commodities falling along with everything else. It is why I worry over coffee doing what looks like a major double top right now. If it is a short and gold looks to be going soft then what else is happening against a backdrop of a dollar that looks ready to head upwards. Any comments on that?
…..because I really enjoy just talking to myself…….
Ya well…join the crowd.
Maybe you can recommend a PERMA GOLD BEAR SITE.
I’ll show up as a gold bear in sheeps clothing.
Catch em off guard. ….watch em fall like flies.
The gold bear argument would be dead after a debate with me.
Your havin…too much fun here. …..Bird
Bearish gold has been quite profitable until now. More downside to come.
Yep, it has been profitable for the past couple of years.
I think that sooner rather than later we will see a HUGE move upward. Am I crazy? I really don’t think so.
Not sure that that the U.S. dollar has bottomed. There are simply too many black swans out there.
So far today has been an interesting day – good in gold and also good in the conventional markets.
The investing world as well as all the rest is connected by internet.
A lot of articles and interviews have are projection significan corrections.
People seem to have learned a little about getting money out before crashes.
My guess, is that’s what their doing, it could become a self fulfilling prophecy.
The dollar gets strong because theres nowhere else to go. (still perceived as safety)
Sure, gold, but north americans don’t like gold.
Gold comes down with the market, after the bottom, up she goes big time.
Why? because the Russians and Chinese are threatening a gold backed currency.
The world has had enough of the americans and they don’t like being threatened with the extinction of the planet.
Check my post yesterday, not saying it will but it really could be “the shot heard around the world”.
I agree with you bb…gold comes down with the market.
This is why I believe a further retest of December’s lows are still on the cards.
It’ll be another nice opportunity to add further to both physical & the mining stocks.
Gold will recover…but I think its price maybe choppy for awhile…I dont see the bull market in gold to really get going bigtime for another 18 months…plenty of time to still continue to add to the portfolio.
Then we’ll see new highs in gold.
As both the US dollar & the general market equities are in multi year declines.
My greatest concern though…is war.
Its the perfect political cover used to deflect the majority of the people’s attention away from what REALLY is the cause of the economic troubles for many countries worldwide.
My hope is that war isn’t the cause for a new eventual high in the gold price.
Just some of my personal thought & ramblings.
Have a good weekend all.
Cheers.
I think Rick Rule would never believe that.
NOT IN A MILLION YEARS
Happy trading…no pun intended. Enjoy your weekend too.
HH,
I enjoy listening to Rick Rule, Eric Sprott & the like.
But why doesn’t someone ask them this question…
“When gold was close to its highs, why were they jumping up & down all giddy with excitement with the rest of the perma bulls ? Why didn’t they tell their investors to cash out & laugh all the way to the bank ? Why instead did they lead their investors smack bang straight into the gold slaughter ?”
…just some food for thought.
Cheers.
Exactly Skeeta.
Another thing that is seldom mentioned. The topic of having enough.
There is a story of a rich Russian that had a basement full of gems and gold art etc.
The revelution happened and it was found about 100 years later.
He and family evacuated never returning.
That was too much to own.
A large part of gold/silver is no counterparty risk.
A vault defeats that purpose.
I figure once you have more than you can physicaly move….fast, that’s enough.
Maybe start with all silver, change to gold, then diamonds, but no more than can be moved at a moments notice. For example should a person have a house fire.
For me, that’s the point to forget it, maybe play shares if so inclind.
Ya Skeeta….I feel ya….
However, I believe Rick Rule was not pumping it. Eric was.
Rick as far as I know he was telling everyone to stay away
from the miners for over 2 year’s. I heard him with my own
ears in speaking to large groups. BTW..all the way through
the end of last year. Buy after tax loss selling.
I do trust Rick and his has my highest respect. He called
the last correction too.
That’s what I know…bro.
Hope this helps. Happy trading !!!!!
Skeeta,
You already know the answer to your question, you’ve just been waiting for the right time to ask it. RR and the rest like him who are superb and seasoned professional investors knew what was about to happen and I’m positive in their personal and managed portfolios they were lightening up as the rabid screeching bugs were buying with both hands with zero thought to the blow-off topping process that was clear to see.
You see, guys like RR and other very savvy money managers know the game and just how distorted it is. They know full well the irrationality and herd mentality of the greater PM investor because above all else, its fragmented make-up is that of a cult.
A cult that must scream nonstop the never ending rise of the gold and silver and in enraged manic fashion denounce and belittle anyone who may actually have a game plan to utilized distortions to make money in this sector. I know that making money with gold and silver sounds weird to some elements of the hardcore cult members, but it is true, there are those of us who do just that.
Now mind you, not all bugs behave in an irrational manner with vile contempt against anyone who may like the PM as much as them, but harbor a greater degree of flexibility and understanding in the profit taking area.
I love Al’s site because there is a few really smart folks here that you can have a serious conversation with that fully understand that gold and silver go up and down in a market flow of buying and selling.
But for the most part, a large segment is raging with a split personality singularity or a Stockholm syndrome trait that leaves little in the way of conversational engagement capabilities.
Really, at the end of the day………learn to think for yourself and don’t become a cult member. Stay flexible and be willing to call BS when you see it.
V
Vortex…that sure holds true but like everything else there are exceptions.
What happened with gold investments in the past and those that pumped
gold should not be necessarily be applied to the future in gold investments.
Briefly, you have realtors, stock firms and others doing the same thing in other
markets. Its all inherit with all classes of assets with selling the herd down the
river.
Not going to elaborate on it. However, if someone is not educated in the field
of investing and most are not, they all eventually lose their money.
ESPECIALLY IN GOLD INVESTMENTS. All the others can be just as bad. Depends
on the era. Its been good for stocks and R.E. but even so gold has beat the S&P
last 14 years. Anyway, golds era is going to last for another 5 years.
Happy trading. See ya at gold 5000. The end of this decade.
Yes Vortex,
As with everything…there is a time to buy…& a just as importantly a time to sell & walk away to explore other opportunities until the carnage is over.
A profit IS NOT a profit UNTIL you sell.
I always keep a small 5% physical gold stake regardless of the price…just in case.
All my other physical stake & mining portfolio is & will be sold off down the road when I feel like getting out….just like the last time.
Those who yell in a bull market that you have to buy now as the prices are going up every week…then about face in a bear market & scream for you to buy as its a fabulous opportunity every week all the way down annoy me somewhat…because they never tell anyone to sell
Shills have agendas. ..it pays to always follow the money trail before following the advice some of them sprout.
Nice post Vortex!
“What happened with gold investments in the past and those that pumped
gold should not be necessarily be applied to the future in gold investments” — Heavyhitter
——–
Because it is different this time, right. Ha!
I don’t know…is it Bird ?.
“WE ARE”……ALL……GONNA ..FIND OUT.
I have great company with my views. We will see
It is never different. You should know that.
By the way, your style of writing is almost identical to Jerry Ootb. Very peculiar, lots of hyphens in the wrong places, staccato like and disjointed. I have long suspected although I don’t know for sure.
You need to be disjointed…just to be around this place…….ootb
BIRD…………HH AND OOTB ………..can you believe there are two disjointed people.
It is not being disjointed , As, I said before, I use to have a secretary take care
the little stuff….like TYPING………AND WORD PROCESSING.
I guess they didn’t tell people to sell is because their minimum target is around 4,000.00 / oz. given the state of the US monetary system.
Man, I need a secretary too, Jerry. She can proofread all my comments and maybe keep me out of hot water!
Bird,,,,if, you hire one, make sure she is like your mother,,,,,,
what do they say…..” only , a mother could love… .”he,he……
More than just “food for thought” Skeeta. It is a great example of nobody is right forever. Rick, Eric, etc are all brilliant traders, but even brilliant traders hedge their bets.
The situation in the Ukraine is as close as we have come in a long time. A war resulting from this situation though would make Viet Nam look like a cake walk! And, that is scary!
Great dialog above, V; box; Bird; and etc.
An addition to confuse things.
Today shots were fired in Ukraine, depending on media coverage gold could soar.
But the other day Ukranian “special killer guys” were sent to stop rampaging rioters.
When they got there they found out it was peaceful protesters asking for a referendum.
The head of the “special killers” resigned saying they had been lied to, and wasn’t going to harm innocent people.
That is really interesting bb. Got a source for that action for the “head of the special killers”?
Dan Rather on CBS news tried to warn us about ten years ago how the media was being controlled and how he couldn’t report on some stories they felt were unacceptable. Dan quit his job because he was true to his beliefs but the situation has gotten worse. DT
DT….one word….FASCISM
The plan is to gut the USA. We are half way there.
The second half is when it goes into free fall.
Then comes the lock down and nothing but poverty.
I believe Walter Cronkite said in an interview after he retired that he wasn’t allowed ever to tell the truth about anything.
BB,
Walter Cronkite was a devout and open satanist that worshipped the dark side of humanity.
I can assure you that WC didn’t give a **** about you or telling the truth of how things really work to the public.
That freak was knee deep into the satanic dark system and he even told everyone on air, but few listened.
V
That is something that I was unaware of V. I am going to do a bit of research on that.
Jim Rogers is looking for that same capitulation stage in gold as I am before he will buy.
at about the 16 minute mark.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=vzwxRH7tuuY#t=963
Gary, that should read before he will buy more, he knows you can’t be left holding the fiat bag. DT
Not sure I would mind being left to hold he bag….of gold.
Jim Rogers may not be buying but he has a lot of gold.
So it means nothing. His arse is still covered.
His portfolio is loaded with gold.
You’re right as always. I’m a moron.
Huh? How about a bit paranoid. Or how about a bit sarcastic?
The difference between now and 1963 when Kennedy was assassinated is the young people no longer believe in the propaganda that is fed to them by the mainstream media, in fact they rarely watch TV newscasts instead they prefer downloading real content from the internet. DT
Aljazeera’s half decent DT.
Because everything on the internet is the truth. Right Dick 😉
You know that is a sarcastic remark the kind you like to dole out to all different posters on this site and that is another reason why I find you annoying, you go out of your way to try and belittle others. I have seen it many times in your posting, most recently with HH, in the recent past Irish Tony brought up the point that you constantly provoke other’s and you seem to enjoy it, well has anyone seen Matthew lately. Don’t tell me you had nothing to do with that. DT
Ahhh…A nurse complex. So you are going to fix it all by harassing me every day?
Why don’t you find another hobby, Dick? Or maybe comment on the post I left about gold revaluation so we can have an actual discussion instead of wasting all the bytes on the board with your daily pointless hissy fits.
Bird….Why don’t you chirp in a different tone…..or just shut the f up.
Gotta agree Irish – Bird just gets up everyone’s nose.
Hey, I am entitled to respond. He has attacked me 6 or 7 times the last few days without provocation. You would have an answer to it as well. And since we are on the topic, this place is less than friendly most days. Matthew was dishing out abuse on a regular basis and none of you came to my defense. How about all the crap that HH spewed some time back?
Maybe both of you can also shut the F up and focus on the discussion instead of personal crap.
Opp….forgot my happy face 🙂 🙂
Gotta disagree Tony and Rev.
All due respect, should you follow Birds posts you might find them pretty valuable.
What ever a persons personality they have the right to it.
It does not detract from what he is saying.
Bird uses logical deduction and reasoning as far as Im concerned.
As do others of course.
Remember when Gary first got on this?
Multiple posts repeating how terrible he was.
I supported his thinking, as I still do, he takes manipulation into account. There are still some here that refuse to even acknowledge it.
Bird, I don’t think your the type to be divin away, but I for one appreciate your input.
And the disagreements are entertaining at least
Tony,Andrew, I respect you both and I take into account your input also.
By the way, you may have noticed at times I have not agreed with Bird, So?
That doesn’t mean Im not going to listen, too many times he has been right and he still could be right on the points I disagreed with.
Same as Gary, far too many times he has been accurate to disregard his opinions.
Same goes for others on this site as well.
Peace cousins, but lets not stop the disagreements please, far too entertaining to stop those.
Well Tony, I joined the army when I was 18, did my time and moved to construction.
Both were “mens” worlds at he time.
Maybe I just plain have thicker skin than others.
Funny, the last 10 years of my worklife included women, unbelievable drama, gossip, subtrafuge, deceit betrayal etc etc. I include the men as well.
But, people were courteous to one another, if you didn’t count what went on behind a persons back.
I am reminded of going to pubs with men, generally a good time had by all.
Add women to the mix and look out. lol
I have never known men that could not hear another mans opinion no matter how he said it. Excluding an insulting derogatory extreme one. Of course
Agree BB – Birdman pisses everybody off from time to time, but he’d entertaining in one way, even if he over-uses his former alcoholism for trying to get the sympathy vote.
Not for sympathy Andrew! Cripes, I am way past that. You really have no idea what I have been through. It is just by way of explanation. I try to keep it honest and upfront. I think you would agree I am the last person to couch words in vague innuendo or flowery bullshit. You will get it straight from me with no reservations.
If we lose Matthew..because of that…I will really be………..___ISSED!!!
bb…..I happen to like reading what bird writes, I read all his stuff & I believe he has a handle on things , I just don’t like the way he replies to others ( who don’t agree with him ) on this site……Bird try being nice to people…after all we are all in the same boat.
OK, an honest answer Tony……I quit drinking back in January. Prior to that I was being quite a jerk and I admit it. But a few months have passed and while I have attempted to be civil there are just some who will not forgive. I guess it gets on my nerves and the old instincts kick in automatically. Anyway…happy and sober here in East Africa these days. Hoping to have a better year than the last one.
Matthew is his own man. Do not blame others if he chooses not to post, Marc.
Well, maybe not exactly everything Bird!
A comment on the pros and cons of the Bird.
I personally find him to be a very valuable contributor. I also find all of my friends here to be very valuable contributors.
Please, let’s not get into a pissing match. Remember LISTEN TO EVERYONE AND THEN MAKE UP YOUR OWN MIND.
Best to all!
And that, Machine Gun, is the best place to stay informed!
BTW…..when the dollar devaluation comes it will be on a week end and take all the
anaylists, investors and traders by surprise. Most likely at least 25%.
Then what, only few would have been prepared. END .
Nonsense. Something like that would collapse the global financial system. Where do people come up with these crazy ideas.
Gary…the same crazy people who gave us this dying economic system.
Its going to fail and the events maybe the big devaluation over time.
However, when nations fall or a ship sinks to the bottom.
The first half of the decline or sinking ship takes time.
Now for it to go all the way to the bottom should take
half the time.
The whole thing or ponzi scheme should be collaped by
YOU GUESSED IT….2017
I think your analysis is awesome but this gold trade as we
all know is questionable short term. I think the odds are we
have a soft patch here and then up in May. 1500 mid year.
Take a look at the 1976 gold chart. 2 double bottoms and then
capitulation. You can check it out. I just don’t think it relates
to our current market. I’ll let you decide. We have been basing
for a year. Also, please don’t publicize it. Thanks. Keep it to
yourself.
BTW…The Plunger missed that one.
You are right as always.
Won’t publish it. I lost all my subscribers anyway because of my moronic calls.
OK….you are not regular Gary.
Thats funny Gary…
Mr. Guru….being humble. Some of the best minds are humble.
Hey Bird. …we can learn from this. What have we become.
I need to work on this. I will….my new handle will be…DIRT
Remember what Churchill said HH when told what a humble man Atlee was:
‘He has much to be humble about’!
Good ole Winston…..Andrew
Funny too… puffing on those giant….CIGARS.
Fine Chap …he was
Great quote, Reverend!
No not a great quote, A REALLY GREAT QUOTE!
I don’t think; however, that Gary has much to be humble about!
GARY…..1976…. ….??????
Whats your take. Not the plunger, Rogers.
YOUR ANALYSIS. … thats why I confided in the information to you
25% over a weekend…I say nah !…not a chance.
The US dollars value will be a very slow multi year decline imo…maybe over a decade or two.
Well..the gold revaluation of 32 was an overnight haircut of 40% for the dollar. Twenty five percent sounds optimistic to me given how much worse it is this time around.
Agree BM.
LOL…back in 32 my Dad was nothing more than a suggestive twinkle in Grandpa’s eye.
I doubt very much the US dollar will be devalued by a quarter over a week end. ..I call BS
I believe it will instead be a long slow down devaluation. ..no less painful. ..but no overnight weekend shenanigans.
No, I was being serious Skeeta. It has been done twice already in the past 100 years that the dollar was devalued almost literally overnight. Both times the event was in reference to gold.
While I have been bearish on metals these past few years I do agree with one major point the gold community makes and that is that we could very likely face such a devaluation again. It is not just a high probability it is almost assured. And if we don’t lead on that topic others just may.
Look, let me explain how easily this could happen and suggest what a sudden shock it would come as to everyone. The Fed currently holds thousands of tonnes of gold on its balance sheet on behalf of the Treasury and those are kept at a fixed rate of 42 dollars per ounce.
Pretty low price don’t you think. But have you ever wondered if there was a reason for that low price not being changed since back in the Seventies? Well I have and it is my belief that gold is treated in such a way to allow a future adjustment that might free the Fed of any mistakes they have made in policy over the years. It offers a get out of jail card. Insurance, if you will.
Have you seen the Fed balance sheet? Anyone appreciate how damaged it has become?
Their problem is that they are holding substantial assets that are not marked to market plus assets that are degrading in value over time. Interest rate considerations and the speed of selling instruments back into the market are big uncertainties right now but could be very negative in the future. There are liability mismatches too of which the dollar itself is one. The Fed is not bulletproof in such regards.
I theorize that they will balance the books with the stroke of a pen if they are backed into a corner. All that is required as a first step is to change to book price of gold on their balance sheet and Voila!……..we just got devalued overnight (the dollar I mean).
They WIILL NOT tell you in advance either or everyone would front-run the gold and silver markets.
This is probably the most likely of scenarios actually. That would mean that the price of precious metals would rocket up to their new set value which could in theory be any number they choose to make the math work. The new floor would thus be the Fed price.
OK. Well what was the Fed price during the 1930’s? In fact the price they set and paid to miners for delivery was in excess of the going market rate at the time! So we know the new price must at a minimum be the cost of mining plus a premium. It is easy to theorize that could be anywhere from 1200 to 1300 dollars today as a starting point and perhaps much more if the action is taken after some inflation has set in. Keep in mind that if they were to get a dollar devaluation even close to what was done in the 1930’s that gold could be revalued into the thousands.
So that is a fair worry (for those who don’t invest in metals).
OK…….So let me pose the above remarks in the form of a few questions. You can answer them yourselves and decide if what I am suggesting is reasonable.
1) Do you think the Fed will keep holding the price of gold at 42 dollars on its balance sheet?
2) Can they keep it at that price perpetually? No…then why not?
3) Do you think they can afford to underprice gold if their liabilities become unstable?
4) Do you know why it was priced at 42 dollars in the first place?
5) Will gold ever sell at 42 dollars again?
6) What reason can you think of that the Fed would not change its book value for gold?
OK….you get it I am sure. Class is out.
Now that is a very interesting and obvious (to some) point Bird!
Thank you Al. I am really happy to hear at least one person out there can see the obviousness of what lies in wait. It is my contention that the Fed WILL revalue its gold holdings, that it will be done without notice and that those changes could be substantial if it were driven by another financial crisis. The importance of gold holdings by Central Banks would again become quite apparent to all. The effect of a revaluation does indeed imply that the dollar has been devalued abruptly just as we saw in the 1930’s and this effect can be achieved without the need to confiscate. It is impossible to guess how high precious metals shares might jump on that news but I suspect it would be quite rewarding for those already invested. A gift really.
This is why gold was priced at $42:
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/history/42-the-answer-to-life-the-universe-and-everything-2205734.html
😉
Ha Ha! Nice one Matthew. Good to have you back.
The revaluation of the yen recently took 25% off. That was the most extreme devaluation in a long time. It took 8 months to complete. And of course that was with the cooperation of the rest of the world.
I doubt the rest of the world is going to stand by an calmly watch the US devalue the dollar 25% in 8 months much less over a weekend.
Heck we don’t even have any stress in the system right now. What would be the rational to devalue. It looks like the Fed is trying to raise the value of the dollar by terminating QE.
Now if we were to go into a very severe recession then I could see the Fed reversing course and trying to devalue, but we aren’t in a recession yet. GDP is still positive and employment is still growing.
Granted that will eventually changes as it always does. No one has found a way to repeal the business cycle yet. But it’s not something that happens overnight. It’s always a gradual process of rolling over into recession.
Gary……………
THE business cycle has been repealed by the Obama Plan.
THE business cycle has been repealed by the minimum wage.
The business cycle has been repealed by youth unemployment in excess of 30%
The business cycle has been repealed by over regulation.
The business cycle has been repealed by over taxation,state,fed. and local.
The business cycle has been repealed by the manipulation through large corporations, which go off shore and source jobs.
The business cycle has been repealed by disincentives………
The business cycle has been repealed by the incentives ie..food stamps, extended unemployment benefits………
My last question…………..have you ever owned a business, with more than 5 people?
Have you every owned a business for more than 7 years? Have you ever owned a business that paid taxes, and made a profit.
What are you talking about Gary? It has already been done before. There is a precedent. The world did not end. Here is a chart you should look at. It is gold priced in dollars over a hundred years. See anything gradual about the drops?
Gold priced in Dollars – 100 years
http://pricedingold.com/charts/USD-1900.pdf
Fact is there have been two fairly dramatic drops. The repricing of gold in 1932 was just one of them. Those are called defaults in the parlance of others. Please do not tell me it can not or will not happen again. Do not say the world will not accept it either. They are not going to be asked how they feel.
How the hell do you think the debt is going to be contained? We know it is not going to be paid off because that is technically impossible. At least it will not be paid back with its current strength.
So it is either a swift, severe bout of inflation as we had in the 70’s or it will be by a sudden revaluation versus gold. The gradual persistent low level stuff you speak of is already part of the program and baked in the cake. It is not going away. What is worse is we will have both.
Well ya….all this conventional wisdom around here boggles my mind.
Slow and gradually. It could be the exact opposite.
I’M SURE IT WILL TOO.
Don’t get upset. I’m just a moron who doesn’t know what he is talking about.
Gary, …you….come on bro.
Not like the financial markets are easy. Just the opposite.
What I have learned is to not trade anything unless its 100 percent.
Over trading is a huge mistake. These long term trades like gold
right now is somewhat of a wobble. The rewards though are going
to be great….THIS MORON HOPES.
The biggest moron of all could be me. Still am anyway.
Bird, have you read Rickards “currency wars”? the “death of money”? should be out soon.
The devaluation will happen, and your right it could just be a revaluation of gold, but Rickards has some pretty interesting ideas as to how it might happen.
Last interview I saw him he was asked about investing (surprise) he said depends if you want a pop in fiat or long term wealth.
I guess people that retain wealth over centuries tend to have 1/3 gold,1/3 land,1/3 art.
Cash for operating expenses.
The powers or the central western planners are..
EXTREMELY POWERFUL….
However, it my belief they are running out of gold in the west. So they could
do more damage to the gold market but how much damage is very questionable
now with stock piles leased out and 10 or more other counter parties to the
gold inventories. WHERE IS THE GOLD GOING TO COME FROM.
Prices must rise to cap the demand. With all those worthless dollars out there
seeking a safe haven for high liquidity as with gold all the herds seem to move
all at one time. Maybe. ?.maybe not.
JUST DON’T FORGET THIS POST. The metals make lots of their gains in very
short order sometimes. Don’t want to talk moon…..right now in the not to
distant future within 2 years …these moon shots are impossible to predict
but I see a few coming. END.
No bb, I have not seen Rickard’s book yet. They would probably not carry it over here anyway because I am way too far off the grid. I mean, we taxi by horse and carriage when grocery shopping for gosh sakes. It is really another world where I live (thank you God for internet!).
Rickard’s is brilliant though and he has thought through the ideas clearly. His presentations really impressed me and some of it is hard to argue with. We do know one thing….if there is not a revaluation of one sort or another we will face a deep crisis because the debts are quite simply not payable.
What that means in other words is that relative living standards will drop. This has already happened in a number of stages already but each time we adjusted. For example, the shift from family farms to urban living was a severe change brought on by the hardships of the depression. It resulted in the loss of independence that early Americans had enjoyed until that time.
It also turned a nation of agricultural entrepreneurs into salarymen and employees.
There was also the impacts of automation. These came as benefits to consumers but cost millions of jobs in the process. The effects of globalization and free trade were no less damaging in that regard and incomes stagnated while labour became surplus which resulted in many more people being left behind as the trend progressed.
Then came the women’s movement that demanded fair wages for equal work and full access to the labour market but the bitter downside was prices of assets like homes doubled, tripled and quadrupled. Suddenly, the novel idea of a dual wage income home became a prison where you could not survive and live well without two incomes.
There were other circumstances that ate our lifestyle too. High inflation in the Seventies was just one. We saw our incomes wither relative to rising costs and job opportunities vanish for those who did not adapt quickly to the new technologies.
At each stage of this progression we adjusted but the family unit was slowly breaking down. As groups we became divided. Savings were no longer sufficient and credit was widely embraced to make up for the shortfall in our lives. Marriage rates dropped. Birth rates fell just as quickly. We live in a world now where the majority of adults are single or divorced. It is really unprecedented.
So this is what I am talking about when I say our living standards declined.
Nowadays, most of us don’t live with either our parents or offspring. There is no supports except those offered by the state and the future most face is bleak as the cloud of debt overwhelms the ability of the collective to pay for its demands.
This non-traditional society is set to tear itself apart as blame gets shifted from one group to another. Pensioners are targets. Sick people are targets. Illegal immigrants are targets. The handicapped, prisoners, welfare recipients and all others who depend wholly upon the state are also in the cross-hairs.
And it is because the state cannot pay the promises that they have made and the taxpayer is becoming more and more unwilling to absorb the costs of all those programs. So the question we ask is how can this be resolved without increasing the burden on working people to the extent that the social contract itself is broken or an actual tax revolt gets underway.
I happen to think it will be accomplished with one more swift devaluation that minimizes the total level of indebtedness while simultaneously shaving another part of our buying power. We are being emasculated bit by bit. Most live alone so there is not even a like minded community to argue what is coming nor a historical reference point that might fortify those who are being most affected.
The alternatives are really much worse. History will tell us which path we have chosen.
Yes that’s what were watching Bird. I like to think people will adapt.
Im certain you would enjoy Rickards books, why not wit till the second is out, will be soon if not already, and see if you can arrange its delivery?
Geez, master that and you could end up “the man” that can get “stuff”
Be a powerfull position over there I would think.
Oh, a friend of mine told me his brother was pondering moving to east Africa.
Might just be talkin but with him ya never know.
If I can remember to next time I speak with my friend Ill ask for an update.
A motivated young person could not go wrong over here, B. One guy I know was gifted a hundred hectares of top quality agricultural land and he is using it to plant crop trees and berries. That is a square kilometer of property so its a lot of real estate. The volcanic land in much of the Rift Valley is deep and fertile and rains are plentiful here during two rainy seasons. It is totally unlike what most people imagine as a dry parched desert. Far from it. They grow mango, pineapple, bananas, avocado, papaya, limes, oranges and apples with abandon. The future of much of this production is the export markets of the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Dubai and the like where cash is plentiful but good growing land is scarce. Those markets are nearby and open to the crops that are coming onstream. But it is booming in these parts in so many other ways too. The rapid rise in industrial food production is paving the way for an expansion of all the industries that rely upon those raw materials for inputs. For example, confections, fruit drinks, sodas, perfumes and scents, flavourings, shampoos, preserves etcetera. Big business’s start small and they are certainly on the right track here by promoting the strengths of the region which are still primarily agricultural. So if you talk to your friend point him in this direction. Growth is off the charts near 10% and foreign capital is in huge demand with perks to accompany for those intrepid few who are coming to start a different life outside the box.
I believe there was a Swiss devaluation of 20% not to long ago.
Swiss? Sweden maybe.
Hey Bird,
I am very serious here, we will be happy to send you a Kindle. I am not being sarcastic by the way. I have a first generation just sitting here. Want it?
Thank you for offering Al. That is very kind of you. I am afraid I could not accept though because the customs folks here tax most incoming technology as much as 100% even if it is not new equipment. Thanks all the same!
Skeeta…..I can not agree with your last sentence….the only thing holding it up is the PPT balloon.
Hey…I’m glad you & some others take a different view than me IrishTony.
This site would be complete boredom if we all agreed on everything.
Cheers.
More important than the cigars Heavy, “Oodles of Boodles”! (As in gin)
Who could have seen it coming…over a weekend, a week, a month, several years….it’s still coming? Approx 30 min video with Doug Casey.
http://www.caseyresearch.com/lg/meltdown-video
HEAVY……you say “The plan is to gut the USA. We are half way there.”
Who are the internal and external entities/people who are doing this ????
What is their endgame? The new One World Order/Gov’t ???? Biblical Prophecy played out ???
Thanks for comin back……because people don’t understand the extreme seriousness of what is happening.
Fred, good to see ya
Hope your doin well. I’m just gonna throw a few things out there and its to everyone so don’t
take it personal. First off conventional wisdom can go very wrong. Just because the system
looks stable and Gary just mentioned like nothing can happen is so very wrong. In fact, I will
wager…not really …wish I could…the next crisis goes quick down to the bottom. It could start
anytime and we might already be recession. The bottom I’m talking about is not anything like
the last bottom. My opinion now…the next bottom will be a bottomless pit for the most part.
The whole system comes crashing down taking everyone and everything with it. Again IMVHO. All this conventional wisdom is going to fail…IMVHO.
My position if anything from the very worst to good happens . …the latter is impossible IMVHO….but I’m prepared for anything. Right now I would be worried sick if not for the
relationship I have with The Lord. Everything here is temporal, this is not my home. My real
home is in The Kingdom Of God with my real and true Father there. There is no promise
here living in the flesh. People can try and enjoy it. Most think they can live forever but just
like all the others they too will be passed away someday. Then what…and what about the
tribulation thats on the door step. A world that is going into chaos and any pleasures to be
found will not exist. For me, no thanks. I’ve seen enough here already from A to Z. All these
roads here from all the wealth ….to all the pleasures… lead to a dead end. People destroy
themselves will it prematurely quite often.
I’m not here to debate it and really its best anyone who thinks they know better just scroll
by. Its all…IMVHO….FWIW. Thank you in advance and wish everyone a happy day.
H, ask God where gold is going to close on April 24th will you….no rush, next time your chatting with him, oh and silver and the S&P 500….do you know if he is long or short?
Thanks!
Ya..JJ….good question. Wish I could expand on the subject in depth here.
Because representing the whole truth would take up a whole page here.
Unfortunately BRO….I can’t represent only part of how God works. Then
I would be deceiving you. Just know nothing is impossible with God.
I need to stop there.
If you want to know more about Gods ways and devine eternal things
I highly recommend. …. amazingbible.org
There you will learn quickly in many areas. Like everything else devine
and eternal wisdom comes at the expense of investing your time. Only
then will you discover the great power of thinking eternally. Armor and
a weapon within yourself no one can destroy.
BTW…like your analysis. Keep in coming. Hope you prosper well.
Happy sunday to you.
Amen brother! always wanted to say that, lol
Amen…may we walk in his ways.
He… that is in me, is greater than he ….that is in the world.
Common jj be fair, even Edgar Casey couldn’t do that.
His brother Doug does it all the time!
Common man, that is not the point. But I bet you already know that!
If you have not read it yet Heavy, I strongly recommend The Case for Christ. I started reading it a few days ago. (Actually discussing it in our Bible Study starting tomorrow evening.)
I am pretty impressed so far.
If you have faith, as I do, you really don’t need it but it is very well written and very convincing to folks with no faith.
Cool…Al…..thanks for the recommendation.
I need to build and work on my faith daily. Sharing with all my brothers and sisters,
witnessing and daily reading scriptures especially from the New Testament that
applies to us gentiles.
Satan roams the world like a lion trying to destroy and devour everyone he can.
One thing I do like to share the bible says we need to love The Lord Our God with
all our heart, might and strength. We can know all scripture by heart and attend
church all the time but if we don’t love our Great and One and Only God Lord Christ
Jesus then all the rest has no meaning whatsoever. His word is a priority but if we
have no love for him, it has no meaning. Bible studies are important and missed a
few private meetings last few days. Business emergency that couldn’t be delayed.
I give satan credit for that. Its wonderful to hear you are seeking The Lord while its
not too late and he can still be found. But scoffers and mockers are here and will
come in the last days. I believe with all my heart and soul we are living in the final
days before the tribulation starts. All the signs are here. All of them. So I seek
The Lord everyday. Renew my faith daily. So Al….I hope to see you there in…
The Kingdom Of God…a party for eternity. Our only blessed hope as this world
is always going to disappoint like the bible says. No doubt in my mind…you will
be there Al ….May The Lord Richly Bless You And Your Whole Family In Your Walk
With The Lord.
A serious question for you Fred, Biblical Prophecy? I kind of think so personally!
Next week the chart has given us the key levels of support that needs to hold or lower lows will unfold and the resistance levels that must be taken out with a close to keep gold and silvers run in place.
Yes james all we chart techies are watching the same areas as that’s where the action is.
Gold needs a close above $1325 then the key $1355 level if its to run towards R.A’s $1430+ target….Ukraine may be the push point next week…on the down side a close below $1277 would be very negative.
Silver needs to close above $20.50 before taking on $21.00 and a close below $19.75 would be very negative.
All the above is the road map the charts highlight for us who have eyes to see its all about todays price not where it should be years from now, Mr Market has shown us those numbers are where past resistance-support has held….and that’s far more realistic imo than reading some analyst calling for $900 gold or $9000
I have to agree with your final sentence original jj
ACCORDING TO MAX KISER……..40 CENTRAL BANKS…STACK UP ON PETRO YUAN……..
this is the over the weekend news…..someone was taking about that might have the petro dollar shaking in it’s boots………..A mini Black Swan……….
Be more than just a mini black swan, The Short!
Some great comments this weekend…..MAN I LOVE THIS SITE.
Many thanks Mr. Irish.
Kathy and I had a great time in Seattle! Beautiful weather and beautiful wine and beautiful music and beautiful guess I will stop here.
HELLS BELLS…GS ratio just gone above 66….silver up in euros but down else where….
man some entity has a big foot….ouch.
Is it time to sell some gold , to buy silver ?
Bank on that Tony. I am amazed the ratio skewed this far. It is making me hungry!
Be careful how one reads the GoldSiler ratio as the ration hopefully acts as a slingshot ripping silver higher into golds move higher with much bigger % gains BUT remember the ratio went parabolic just before the BIG 2008 global meltdown of everything, except the US$ which shot up 12 cents while a global liquidation unfolded….keep an eye!
ratio not ration, sorry!
Thanks JJ. Helpful reminders are appreciated. You got an old chart on that by any chance?
I use stockcharts birdman and the symbol is $gold:$silver over a 6 year timeframe
Ukraine issue send gold above its recent high last Thurs of $1324.90 now $1325 70….a lot can happen before our NA open an open above $1330 sets up R.A’s $1350 target…the am open will be interesting as lately a 6:30am smackdown unfolds…will Monday be the same?????????
Yes, I am watching this too, JJ. My target was a peak at 1330 before gold started to fall although I was timing for Friday. This is just as good though. We will watch and see how it plays out. Meanwhile the dollar has bounced right on target as resistance near .79 has again pushed it higher! Sweet baby. And the Euro has fallen half a cent (Sweeter!) right after having touched 1.39 so I may be 3 for3 by the time Monday is over. In my opinion what lies ahead next for gold is a trip back to 1200 although how fast it happens is impossible to know.
I agree with you about another visit to December’s lows Bird.
…I’ll hazard a guess & say it’ll be in Q3.
And gee whiz…I almost forgot to mention coffee! Down nearly 3% already. Bases are loaded baby. This is shaping up to be one fine day so far.
And some of you might think I am an idiot but my trades make money. All posted last week. BEFORE the weekend thank you very much.
…….USAWATCHDOG……BLM SELLING OUT AMERICA….Fabian C.. April 13,2014
BLM, Stealing land and giving to Chinese………Wake up America……….
bb…brought this up two days ago…….
Golds up….
Do you want to see 5000. STAY TUNED.
Once gold crosses 1500 …all the moon posts are coming back.
Hope Bird your planning ahead for that long vacation that’s over due.
Be a shame to have any party poopers here.
YES GOLD UP ! A LOTE OFF PANICKING SISSYS GOLD DROPE 100 $ DAY START PANICK EVERY WEEK THE SAME ! CHINA IS STRONG OK BOYS ! http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/13/us-imf-economy-china-idUSBREA3B0K120140413
Your post are ok HEAVYHITTER ! ATTACK !!!!!!!!
You better believe it….Franky
The gold train could leave the station at anytime.
When the big break out comes. ….
THEY…..ALL GONNA BE SORRY. But Franky we did our job.
Franky… you said buy all the way up from 1180.
Now this opportunity is fading away. Soon it will be too late.
JUST. … A BUNCH OF….. BUMMED OUT….GOLD …..PERMA BEARS
YES I AGREE ! THANKS ! ALL DISS BUY AND SELL ASS KISSING BANKERS CORRUPTION I DOW NOTE LAKE ! BUY BUY BUY !
Good ol’ franky, you hang on in there pal!! Best, A
If I may say so HH the reason why your comments come across as annoying is what you post is the same crap those on the internet with a face ie: Sprott, Turk etc have been saying since $1900….$1500!!! hell man gold can’t close above $1400 with ALL the same reasons + war in place…..most here thru loss of equity holding gold are more realistic…lets take out $1325…$1355….$1397….$1400…$1430 etc before you mention $1500 like its around the corner in full view….sorry I follow and invest in todays world not what is suppose to happen according to the pumpers/goldbug/always a buy side approach.
JJ…..If you followed Sprott don’t put that off on me. I’m long from 1200 and still am.
Never once have I came in here pumping gold before Dec. 2013. NEVER
Have it your way. FINE …WON’T POST ANYMORE. No loss to me.
I try and support all my fellow gold comrads here but there are some
that just have to ruin anything good.
When gold crosses 2000 I’ll be back… not 1500.
Make sure its sunk in good and hard to you that gold is in a big bull
market. Maybe with any luck here Matthew will start posting.
HOWEVER, NO ONE IN THEIR RIGHT MIND WANTS TO BE ABUSED
WHEN YOU BRING IN VALUABLE INFORMATION.
Good luck with your endeavors. Won’t be replying to anyone so please
don’t message me…I won’t answer. At least I think me and Bird are good.
That was accomplished anyway. However this JJ guy I know who he
is. We will never be good. See ya at gold 2000.
Take care HH…we’ll see you again on the upside !
ditto……brother……..
Ditto to you HH!
I have enjoyed your posts & understand your frustration. Hope to see you posting again this summer
THE WEST IS WEEEEEK GONE !!!!!!! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5sRGiYY4Bc
ITALY !!!!!!! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fsQbpafGP8Y
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYl9cIA9LSA WE NO WOND EUROPEAN UNION !
I repeat good ol’ franky!!
I am noticing more and more gold bulls are expecting one more down leg in gold and then a rally. It seems to be the analysis du jour.
I suppose it could happen. And I would really like to know there reasoning, from a technical perspectives, not someone’s opinion about we need one more capitulation.
I don’t think this has to play out this way. I said last week ans still contend the bottom may be in.
Don’t get me wrong, no one has a crystal ball. But if stocks continue down, Russia and Ukraine continues to be and issue, oil keeps rising,then I believe gold could grind higher without any significant pullbacks below $1300
What does anyone else think?
I think the dollar will rise and break 81.50 and ruin the gold party this spring. I think the Euro is going to take a ride down to 1.27 and be a kick in the pants to all the people who keep saying it is the dollar that is doomed.
Commented on this with Chris, The Greater
Gold up nicely to start the week.
Oil. Ack over $104
Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow with stocks.
Will this become a rout
Bird – do you think the 81.50 will be due to a flight to the $ due to stock weakness?
The odd thing is james as the $ fell 1.40 cents these past 6 days the S&P fell 82 points….hmmm
Yes James. I do in fact think we will see a flight to safety this week. We should see bonds rise as well. It is my belief we are going to get a surprise correction in the stock markets as weakness persists through this night and into tomorrow and traders start to take note this has been going on for a number of trading days in a row. By Tuesday we will see the start of a correction that will come as a complete surprise to the market.
james it really feels to me that the next move in the US$ and oil, gold the US equites are about jockey(ing) for position has gold put in an April-May bottom at $1277 suggesting $1300 holds until the seasonal pause in June-July puts $1277 to test again?
Oil will it look to take out $112 or will the 50+200dma at $100 be tested to hold?
Can the US$ index put in a bottom at 79.50 or will it breakdown and test 78.80 the Sept 2012 low?
Seems everything is looking for something to create the push….what that will be I have no clue as I’m sure all eyes are on the US equity markets, continue tanking or put in a correction bottom yet again.
JJ….YOU SAID IN YOUR POST YOU HAVE NO CLUE.
How does that help when everyone needs a clue.
The whole post is clueless. READ IT ….mostly all your others are too
Why did you post it and waste your time. Whats the point.
This forum is full of mainly long term precious metals investors.
I SPEAK FOR… DT, JERRY, ANDREW, TONY, FRANKY, FRED and all the other
gold investors here who could careless about , especially indecisive moves
wishy washy comments in the markets.
GOLD INVESTORS NEED RELIABLE ANALYSIS AFFECTING THEIR INVESTMENTS.
If your just trading why in the world are you here and posting things that don’t affect us.
I OWN MAJOR POSITIONS IN GOLD. There are others here with big and small positions.
You want to invest in gold. If not, your in the wrong place. You would be better served
in a trading forum.
THIS IS A FORUM OF SERIOUS GOLD INVESTORS. Its already a challenge here.
No one seems to care why we are here but we do because we have serious capitol
on the line. I see the frustration here and to everyone who posts please respect
our purposes here. THIS IS NOT A GAME. Not a place to play.
THERE …I STATED MY CASE. I see others here and myself frustrated by nonsense.
ditto………….
Jj – yes that’s true. It was unusual to see both stocks and $down.
Seems liked a perfect storm was brewing…
Be forewarned then James. The signs are there. I think a steep unexpected correction lies dead ahead and I shall be short the Dow and S&P this week for the first time in the past five years. We are about to breach all the key technical points that were not clear to me last week. I would take cover.
Also….never do anything I do. That is not advisable. I can be wrong at the worst possible times. Whatever I say is just projections based on my personal beliefs but those projections are definitely not investment advice. Sometimes we are just gambling on the odds and nothing more.
Bird…before I leave
Remarkable wealth of information you posted regarding the Fed and
historical devaluations. Reinforced my views. Thanks for the invaluable
anaylsis. And yes, it is different this time. According to your posts today.
A 2000 gold price its going to be exciting around here. Moon shot posts
will reappear then. And your right, it will be different again at 2000 …with
a moon shot to 3000. THIS IS MY MOON SHOT..OUT OF HERE. .till then.
Gives me a break here until maybe August. Just a moon shot away. HA
To da mooon, HH. Be sure to pick up some physical silver. It might just be in short supply one of these days very soon.
HEAVY……August is too far out…..Blood Moon Tuesday morning…..April 15th…..Tax Day LOL………Ukraine war in the eastern regions…….Putin took the Crimea but since there is no economy there, it will cost him billions of dollars…….big financial mistake by Putin…….talked to my Ukrainien source who calls there everday……..says Russian protesters by the thousands in the streets of Moscow, St. Petersburg and Yekaterinburg. The Russian people are against Putin and the incursion of their brothers/sisters in Ukraine…….when body bags go back to Russia, Putin will have lost all support……Ukrainien military is top notch…trained the same with the Russians by the Soviets……..there are no secrets……hold on……lets see what happens.
Blood Moon?
Please Matthew, make a return visit!
Good idea if he will be civil. By the way, I think Crude is a short for Tuesday along with gold, coffee and others. Lets not fall for the Ukraine conflict as a primary reason for oil strength. Something else is at play here. It is bigger than even the Russo-Ukraine troubles.
Birdman that’s a wind-up and you know it. Matthew (or ‘Matty’ as you like to call him) doesn’t do rage.
Well I don’t know what a wind-up is Reverend but I can probably guess what you are insinuating. The reason Matthew does not post is because he was quite wrong about the direction of metals and is afraid to show his face. He is also way wrong on the dollar, Fed intentions, QE and stocks too. I would hide my face as well.
I’m not insinuating anything BM. You’re just bloody rude and can be as wrong as anybody else.
Give it a rest Andrew. You are becoming a bore.
Ha, I’m surprised you can show your face after this gem:
On March 19, 2014 at 6:53 pm,
Birdman says:
The Golden Cross won’t happen anymore. It has been badly delayed if not cancelled.
———-
LOL and then some, Bird! There’s no excuse for such a dumb comment. Just a glance at the chart should have made it clear that the GC was imminent. Indeed, it happened just 60 hours later –not “cancelled” and not even slightly “delayed” when you consider that the Death Cross happened 13 months earlier.
You, genius, are excused.
Oh my God…look who is back. Same old reliable. If I recall correctly you were calling for 1500 dollar gold based on that golden cross. Hmmm? Hows that working so far? Another moon shot maybe. Shoot, we are barely holding 1330 today. Got a better chart?
PS…I figured if I invoked your name a few times you would show up again. 🙂
Nice try. No, you do NOT recall correctly. Big surprise.
GREAT to have you back Matthew.
more lo lo USA and all US DOLLARS ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qH9TURM2GEY
The total Dow decline I anticipate will not exceed 25% during April and May. Call me crazy….that is my belief. I get to eat my words later if I am wrong.
Hi Andrew, I’ve been on a boat lately. The last time I had this much time away from this site was in the summer of 2011!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=avaSdC0QOUM
(Don’t click if you are easily offended and/or have no sense of humor.)
Mermaid included Matthew?!
Ok, that was wishful thinking. Hey, a guy has to dream.
An absolute MUST read – Is the Bundy Ranch Real Estate Ranch scandal THE black swan?
http://usawatchdog.com/blm-selling-out-america-fabian-calvo/
ANDY…..we are on the same page……..bb and I posted the same…..
there is a new clue………..the rancher never paid his fee since 1996
But, the main thing is the govt. is reaching a little to much.
Fabian ,,,has a great clue,,,REAL ESTATE being dumped…….
but, REAL ESTATE , might be in play for a short term, run up, before, another bubble, only problem, will be buyer qualification,,,,,,since, there are not jobs,,,,but , the Chinese might be the buyers as mentioned before,,,like the Japanese were in the 1990s
I believe the ranchers family has been grazing he land for 3 generations. Did the government change the “deal” 20 yrs ago? and that’s why he refused to pay the fee?
The US government “breaking” contracts began with Thomas Jefferson I believe.
I think the fee, is a side issue………..the bigger issue, is the land and if the Govt. is selling it to the Chinese, in trade for not dumping the Treas. Notes.
Andrew, as of yesterday it was over, the blm backed down.
I posted the story the other day on a couple different sites where the contributers talked about liberty etc.
What I found interesting is NOBODY even mentioned they did as much as an email or phone call to support liberty.
More people sided with the government than would defend liberty.
I have to say, my impression of people on sites talking about liberty is now they are
Just talk.
BB……there will be only a few …..just like the Tea Party………only a few , know what the heck the Constitution even says….
Another interesting interview is the latest Paul Craig Roberts @kwn.
This forum is full of mainly long term precious metals investors.
Absolutely and I am one of them. One part of my holdings is insurance and another is for a capital gain under the right situation. Physical longs like myself do get offended at the financial sabotage which is popularly known as the market. Still given past experience with paper assets physical metal is still the way to go in spite of the constant financial sabotaging / short side managing of the price.
Please for the sake of consistency BM stands for Bob Moriarty.
Sorry James – no wish to offend Bob Moriarty!!
You got defrocked, right?
I will bet you that he did not. The Reverend did not!
Am action has gold fighting the resistance area at $1333 before the next resistance area of $1343 comes into play, lets maintain a close above $1325 Silver needs to make a move towards last weeks high at $20.40 a positive trend is the miners are not heading lower with gold advancing which was absent on Thurs-Fri certainly the general equities having a positive bounce is helping matters.
Wasn’t that long ago any mention of a war tension around the world and the US$ would be bid up, it can’t make a decent run so far at regaining 80.00
Just a heads up looking back over the past few years the Easter holiday has produced some major sell offs in gold and silver….will 2014 repeat the previous 3 years?
Yes, I think that Jeff Deist may be correct. A cataclysmic economic event will be more likely to turn the USA and other formerly free contries further away from their roots and to usher in further moves to dictatorial totalitarian state power.
Bob Hoye thinks otherwise and says that the people will demand a return to the Gold Standard. I think there is very little chance of that initiating from any Western country. This is not the America even of 1979-1980, let alone 1880. England is the same. They simply will not take the medicine. They will give up all their freedoms instead, to continue getting ‘welfare’ form the state. Though I do agree with his analyss on previous long-term debasements of the senior currencies in the world from the 3rd, 16th and 20th centuries. I think the comparison to the Roman Empire may be the best, because I preceive the European-English-USA empire world of the 1500-2000 period as being like the Greek-Roman cultural period of 100BC-400AD, with a Dark Age to follow.
I really don’t think that a welfare state can be reversed, until it has gone all the way. Maybe it’s similar to France’s going from the Mississippi Bubble with John Law and the central bankers in the 1720 timeframe going all the way through the strife, the failed currencies and the revolution to end up with the Napoleonic Wars in the early 1800s. Or the Soviet Union from 1917-1989. Or Germany from 1900-1945 as a more extreme example of economic strife and a blow-off top in aggressive government. Look for at least a 60-100 year stretch with at least a couple of generations of severe economic depression before things can improve, from a much, much lower base. A lifelime for most people in the world today. However, I think that today’s example could be a larger scale problem than those; more like the fall of Rome.
A reform to restoration of Liberty in America is the only way to revese this trend and it is highly unlikely. Meanwhile, the UK and the entire European continent (Eastern and Western) are way beyond reform. The corruption of government and people by statism (socialism and fascism) in those places is almost complete. Europe started to draw down its wealth prior to World War I and has been doing so for a century. It will continue until it has all gone. We have seen this already in that the peripheral nations of the Eurozone, such as Greece, Spain and Portugal already have a one way ticket to the Third World. Greece’s credit rating was downgraded to ‘Emerging Market’ debt grade as The Philippines was upgraded to investment grade!
Therefore, we need to look to other continents and cultures to see where economic and political stability will emerge for another renaissance in the future.
No wonder Jim Rogers moved to Singapore!
PS.
I have just read on Kerry Lutz website a remark about Armstrong’s model that compares today to the mid 1700s.
Some one on here mentioned the ‘Blood Moon’
I came inside an hour ago…sat outside over a few beers for the couple of hours it took the eclipse to complete.
Whilst the eclipse looked quite picturesque perched over the top of the mountains near where I live…I was somewhat disappointed with the colour.
More like a little bit of rust than a Blood Moon imo.
Great to have Dan Kurz on the show, thanks guys.