Wednesday and The Doctor Is In
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Morning The Greater,
Please understand one thing about me. Not Doc, Gary or Rick, just me.
I am neither a bull nor a bear because prices of au or ag make absolutely no difference to me other than they make for great discussions and they certainly are reflective of geopolitical issues.
I believe that these particular prices are a very accurate barometer for consumer confidence or a lack thereof.
We buy and hold precious metals with no regard to price.
Best
Actually it is only a 6% increase per year if instead of starting from now I start from 2011 when gold made it’s all time high.
So I have to say unequivocally if gold gets to $1900 in 2019 then this was a lousy investment!
I was bustin up laughin because when I read James The General post
my thoughts exactly. I think Doc is being ultra conservative. Really
conservative not to get anyone excited and doesn’t want to be in litigation
with misrepresentation. The latter..just kiddin.
Very good point.
I don’t think that he is being ultra conservative. He makes a lot more sense to me than the bs about $5k to $10k gold put out by so called experts who are selling books, speaking engagements and newsletters! Sorry, but I have been around for a long time.
James, you are right.
Yeah Paul, but common man it is all about just why you buy it!
Heavy hitter -I have to agree completely with you.
It’s the only logical explanation that he is just super conservative.
Geez if $1900 by 2019 is the best we have to look forward to let’s all go fishing and call it a day!
General. ….I had a good laugh. Really made my night …your post.
Maybe General. …old age is really creepin in.
Grab my fishing pole and head out.
So what the heck is wrong with old age?
Stay the course Heavy!
I don’t know…..General. ..
With those returns . …I’m gonna have to take up hunting too.
Doc, I really appreciate your well reasoned, well thought-out and balanced analysis of this sector and it is very refreshing to hear from someone who brings such a high degree of intelligence to the discussion.
No prep rallies, no pom poms, no cheer leading or mindless PM to the moon ramblings……..just superb interview content from a man who thinks for himself and provides solid information that can be added to a multi-layered template to assist in peeling back the ever changing layers of this distorted onion of a sector.
Keep up the great work Doc.
V
Thanks Vortex; I just like to throw in all kinds of possibilities so people can get their arms around the large number of variables. I’m feeling very good about these markets and really believe from a huge number of charts I continue to monitor that we have seen the lows and are gathering some steam—-also, we will continue to see that grind I’ve been talking about but I believe the end of this move down is now in sight. I’m going to attempt to call the low (which I hardly ever do) when I believe I’ve seen it—–just be a little more patient.
Yes Doc, your flexibility and adaptability to changing sentiment and market conditions is a huge attribute and adds additional depth to your strengths as technical and fundamental convergences tug at the supply and demand fundamentals and is highly appropriate for staying nimble and solvent.
If we were to reach an extreme washout low of 1220 on gold that would give longs one of the greatest buying opportunities in years.
Will it get there, who knows.
It will be a grind as you have stated.
thanks
V
Don’t you think that the same is true of Rick and Gary, V?
Okay, let me lay it out for you guys. Did I say it would be 2019 before we see the next high in gold—NO!!!!! What I said is “technically” (if you look at the long term uptrend) it could be that long—–TECHNICALLY. Do I believe personally it’ll take that long—Absolutely NOT!!!!! A worse case technical scenario was laid out. I believe the dollar will move lower significantly before then. I hope everyone can take 2 ibuprofen now and relax.
Geez Doc, gambling on Birds low I bet the boat. After your call I sold my last flakes.
Now your telling me it was technical?!?!
lol
Thanks for all the great commenting and opinions.
To be honust this place has gotton to be my preference for opinions with You Rick and Gary. Input from listners is often excellent too.
I include thinking from people that don’t follow technical too.
Really turned into a great site since Al changed things up a bit.
Thanks bb!
I might need to drop those 2 ibuprofen into the bottom of a double scotch Doc.
Blend or single malt?
Lol heavy!
Same drill today guys, we are stuck in the trading range, period.
Now ya .. tell me …Doc. ..after just returning from the store loading up
on hunting and fishing gear.
Sounds great to me. Hopefully, I’ll head up to the northern part of Saskatchewan again this summer to catch some big ones . Boy, do I love the north country. Solitude.
Canada is a great place to be in the summer. You can have the winters
though..lock..stock and barrel. Spent many years in Alberta. Near Banff.
Even though I have interests there, its very far to travel. Tourists in the
summer are many. So beautiful though. Sounds like you are enriched
with the great outdoors. Personally, I love being out. Got my tablet and
can communicate from any type environment. Except hang gliding.
You need to try it. I like to watch others in action gliding to their destiny.
I’m just too old now. You need to do it before you get too old Doc.
Really it doesn’t matter. …AL… joined me up into…OLD GUYS RULE
He said today I’m getting old just like him. So sign me up. He did.
Banff is one of the most beautiful parts of the world that I have ever been to. I will never forget coming around the corner and having the Banff Springs Hotel jump out at us!
Cabella’s?
Doc, consider Haida Guay BC coast. Georgous. Unlike my spelling.
Last time I was North Saskatchewan I learned what blackflies are.
lol
I try to get up there when It’s COLD—-there’s nothing like a warm day without a breeze when you’re on an island trying to cook fish for lunch with black flies swarming over you——
short animated film – black flies
Reminds me of my experiences visiting properties way up north!
High time now.
Gold GOFO rates:
April 16:2014
One Month Rate Two Month Rate Three Month Rate 6 month Rate
-.108000% -.08400% -.05800% +.0040000%
Yesterday:
-0780000% – .05600% -.03600000% +.0160000%
indicating shortage of physical increasing.
great post……..thanks
April 16 Gold inventory at the big 3 banks:
i) Scotia: 158,360.992 oz or 4.925 tonnes
ii) HSBC: 152,404,838 oz or 4.740 tonnes
iii) JPMorgan: 317,060.418 oz or 9.861 tonnes
total: 19.526 tonnes
Gold inventory at the GLD:
April 16.2014: 798.43. Today we lost 8.39 tonnes of gold. China must be needing more of our ancient metal
BAIL-INS APPROVED BY EU PARLIAMENT YESTERDAY – DEPOSITS OVER €100,000 VULNERABLE
Yesterday (April 15) the EU Parliament adopted three key texts outlining common rules on how to restructure and resolve failing banks.
The laws make up what has become more commonly known as Europe’s banking union and include the creation of a Single Resolution Mechanism and a €55 billion Single Resolution Fund for banks in difficulty. The law was approved by the parliament with 570 votes in favour and 88 against.
The politicians are a sneaky little bunch………I bet the public did not vote on having a Bail in…………Of course , this is what Sinclair was talking about 18 months ago…..or longer…………..thanks for the update…………
Cyprus rerun………………
Here is a sample of political stupidity and arrogance with a little “sneaky” thrown in;
In Calgary we are getting bicycle lanes made where a car lanes used to be to get to downtown. Even though Calgary has the second most expensive parking in North America, 260 parking spots are to be removed.Overwhelmingly the public has said no to this nonsense but council has approved the experiment anyways.
I think it is to make Calgary a more world class city by saying, “Hey, so what if you can’t see the lines on the road due to snow and ice for four months a year and it gets to minus 30 C, we want you to ride your bike downtown while we get heated parking underground at city hall.
I have seen these riders as I do snow removal in this fine city and they go where they want; sidewalks, roads that have no bike lanes, and bike paths. I guarantee that they cannot see the lines painted on the road either.
ARE YOU CALLING that a SNOW JOB………….
Haha!;-D Maybe Uncle has something to say…..
They have really screwed up Hornby Street in Vancouver, Dan.
||I must admit that all this waiting for two to ten years after two months from now is getting rather hard to put up with. The way things are going I will be a dead poor homeless virgin long before I gain the financial power to live in this world regardless of whether or not I have a job. This so called market and it’s insider gangsterism has got to end.
And, it will Steven. By the way you seem like a good person.
Doc said that the PM market is being directed by technicals. Has this chart peeked or can we see another spike?
I am biased toward the view that it has peaked, but if it manages to spike to 80 or higher, I will sell more gold to buy silver. Good miners would be a better deal in that scenario for those who know what they are doing.
Thanks Matthew, I am sitting on some cash now waiting to deploy soon. I have made the mistake of deploying my cash too soon many times (;-)
I wouldn’t believe a guy who says that he has never bought too soon! I’ve sure done it countless times, but by buying major weakness in 2013, too, my juniors are still up nearly 70% in 2014. Of course, position weighting, trading, and luck have played a big role in this result!
I bought back a little AXU a few minutes ago.
Here we go again.
Icknowcyou saycyou are extremely bullish on gold long term but again, like before, your analysis is very negative IMHO.
Why do I say that?
For starters you state we can get back to $1900 gold no later than 2019.
With all due respect to wait 8 years to get back to the previous high is not bullish.
You say no later but you once again never say possibly how soon.
So again I have to disagree completely that waiting another a 5 years is not a bull market and most people would probably find greener pastures.
Long term is one thing, decade long price predictions is another.
And quite frankly no one can project that far out.
Now all this would be ok if we were living before the flood and we lived 200, 300, 400 …years but we don’t.
Let’s assume gold goes down to $1240 and in 2019 we reach $1900 again.
This is roughly an 8% increase per year.
Hate to say it but this is hardly anything to get excited about.
This is hardly an “amazing move” you talk about.
Cory then goes on to say how the fundamentals don’t play out in short term trading.
This has been a 3 year decline! Stop speaking about this as short term!
So once again, as I said before when I was confused with one of your previous interviews.
Al states people are accusing you all of being per a bulls, but I have to say after listening to this interview you don’t seem at all bullish to me, even though you think you are