James fwiw the bull market in Gold, Silver and the mining stocks which started in early 2002 did not start from a washout event it started from an exhaustion event, there simply was not more sellers, no interest in the precious metals sector in general.The buying first originated by the very few astute hedge funds that were forex based as the “top” was in regarding the US$ in 2002, I know because I was one of them.

That’s when the bull market in everything priced in US$ headed higher creating new breakouts as the US$ was devaluing which of course oil and the general CRB commodity index followed higher….it was a pure currency trade.

Once key technical levels which were resistance levels that had been in place for years fell one by one the bull market brought in general fund managers and the guru crowd as even a blind man could see a full on stairstep bull market was unfolding.

Eventually the sheeple piled in but of course the average town idiot didn’t show up until 2011 as they always create the tops in every market, always have always will.

I agree with Doc that the bottom again will be created by a continued grind lower, BUT I disagree that the bottom will be in a matter of weeks…..if gold repeats its performance of the 1970’s bull run the first major leg up saw a 50% pullback before shooting multiplies higher, so if gold hits $960+ from a continued grind lower its not anything it hasn’t done before.

I’m a technical trader and just today having the HUI close below 220 is another bearish trend as now 210 comes into play and if that fails which imo it will the grind lower will be looking at sub 200 yet again. Early May we will have Q1 earnings from the miners and they will not be sending a positive tone towards the sector.

As key support levels fall more pressure is placed on selling into any strength vs buying the dips……a lot of short covering took place in Jan-March but whats really needed is fresh new Buyers not just short covering.

Enjoy your long weekend james

Day all drinking WINE ! really

Because I started drinking good red wine very early today! (Not)

Well james your not seeing things, here is what I think is different from the top of 1980, I traded gold and silver back then so I know first hand that gold was at the time its own dotcom parabolic run, as you may recall there were line ups to buy physical gold at $800 and many of the same precious metals guru’s of today like Casey and the Aden sisters were calling for gold to be priced in the thousands (just as they were at $1900+) my point is the sheeple were very much involved at $800+ gold and yes part of the run up towards $1900 was the sheeple piling in but imo the street did NOT participate in the bull run from 2002-11 nowhere near like 1980..the bull run from 2002-2011 was the most hated non-participated bull run in anything ever imo..so I’m in the camp that the ultimate high has not been put in place again based on the town idiots held no gold to very little in 2011 vs 1980, and they alone create every market top.

The main driver in the 1980 gold run was inflation and (once again) Russia invading Afghanistan and its fall was mainly Volcker driving rates up, in 1980 alone from 13-20% fed funds…

We may look back years from now and golds $250….not a typo…$250 and understand that the US$ did not lose its reserve currency status, China did not back their Yuan with a % of gold basically all the reasons behind golds call to da moon never materialize, it could happen and the opposite could happen revaluing gold much , much higher.

All I know james is I’m not smart enough to know what the outcome will be so I let the daily pricing tell me, not where its going so much but where Mr market prices it today, period!

If it continues to fall I’ll stay short, if it confirms a bullish breakout like Jan1st 2014 I’ll be long, I really don’t care where it trades….I’m a trader so I trade.

There are a 100 reasons why gold should be higher and 100 why it should be lower, I’ll let the big boys determine price and ride that momentum up or down not married to any outcome.

Good luck to you james….keep an open mind and away from the koolaid, lol unless its well spiked then drink up!

General. ….everyone is calling for 1000 gold.

At 1180 it was the same spin. So yes, I believe
we could be at the bottom or at least 1280 should
hold. There is bear talk all over the chat sites.
Everyone here is nervous and im sure hate mail
is coming in to anaylist who were bullish.

JJ has some good points. The bulls need to
get busy buying too. We need some support
levels holding.

Anyway, you know all this General. I want to
see 1280 hold. If not, my fishing rod is on
stand by.

Above above is for a grind lower, not capitulation.

Grind lower to about 1220 gold. Most likely outcome.

All of my posts are IMVHO…..FWIW

I will try and write this in a manner not to piss you off because that is not my intent. Those that follow the technical approach to ANY investment use Mr Markets data to provide guidance which completely removes the emotional aspect towards investing.

If I’m long silver of course I want to see it shoot multiples high and if I’m short have it waterfall much lower, but I don’t control the price action on the charts, for the most part its hedge funds those that have the volume to move price values.

Mr Market regarding Silver has given a very clear support and resistance area that needs to be taken out on a closing basis, if one is looking to add or get long use an upwards breakout to confirm the direction and start a position or add. If one is short (I’am) look to add if support fails to hold.

Its really that simple, no guess work, no emotion, let the market tell you what is the proper approach.

Silver is trapped in a tight range between $19.50 and $20.50

On a monthly basis silver needs a monthly close above $30.00 to confirm the Bull has returned. The weekly chart needs a close above $24.25 an area Silver has not closed above since April 2013

Peter Brandt, which Big Al had on the show a couple weeks ago has had some fantastic chart work regarding gold and silver over the years, no emotion just highlighting key levels of support that must hold and resistance that must fall…..the recent action in silver has his opinion based solely on the chart data suggesting the next leg down in silver COULD BE unfolding….here is the link:

http://peterlbrandt.com/chart-day-whats-next-silver/