Doc is starting to take greater positions in the precious metals stocks, find out why
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Doc, do you have some favorites you would like to share or not?
Gary; this is not investment advice—I’ll share those that aren’t juniors since they tend to be more speculative. First of all, I’ve purchased the ETFs GDXJ and GDX. Then there’s Pan American Silver which is a solid company with good management and actually a dividend (so far). The only thing I don’t like about the company (which is common to many of them) is the presence of their mines in a lot of different political jurisdictions. Another is Hecla which came out with earnings after the market close. Almost all of their financials showed considerable improvement year over year. They actually showed positive net income. I also own AUQ, EXK, GPL and SLW. As mentioned, I do own some more speculative companies which I would feel uncomfortable about mentioning. Oh, I also own NG.
Those GDP numbers were really bad…its ‘beggar thy neighbor time’ for the dollar.
Hey Doc,
NYSE CAD line made all-time new highs last friday but index 2% below all-time highs, so some divergence’s showing up but all that could be reversed if indexes shoot to new highs soon. From a historic standpoint we whould be making the top in the NYSE CAD line right here and then a correction and then we will see the DOW and SP500 comeback over the next 6 months to 2 years to make all-time new highs, similar to what we saw in 1998. Depends how much the big boys want to squeeze out of the short sellers 🙂
The average trend strength indicator I’m following has been dropping lower then I’ve seen in a long time. There’s not a trend one way or another. I’ve noticed in the past when it does that, it often bottoms and a new trend is established. All my TA now is neutral. Something is going to give in May and with earnings pretty well over for the first quarter, I’m wondering what that factor may be.
Doc. You have Been mentioning three indicators you follow that are converging. Are they still on track to meet you expected target in May? What is the expected result if they do?
Thank you
DOc – here is another interesting fact and a reasons why I still expect to see Silver make one more final low below last years low. I have learned so far that to say “It is different this time” is not good for the bank accoutn or investments. From a macro perspective, the only other time in history we can compare the current situation is to the late 1920’s and early 1930’s (last major DEBT crisis), the DOW bottomed in June of 1932 and Silver bottomed in Dec. 1932 and of course Gold Bullion price was fixed at $20/ounce and raised to $35/ounce in 1933.
Regards,
PG; I feel we still have the chance for silver to give us a scare as far as breaking lower. The possibility is distinctly there yet. If we can get through the next 4-5 weeks, we should be okay. The technicals still look okay. I really enjoy the info and facts you come up with.
RICHARD……Coming from a silver bull…..I agree with you…..Silver short term scares the $%*% out of me ….but long term I’m a happy bunny.
I agree as well. Lots of question marks. Record sales In Silver coins , drain on silver e changes, rumors of huge position by JP Morgan, decreased Industrial production in China, supposed solar increases, India sales to drop or increase?
I can make a case either way regarding a rise a fall. Given the state of the environment … It should be up it could get take down
I am excited and very worried
Best wishes
I think, Mr Goldman, that what you are trying to say is that there is a lot of confusion out there and very little of a clear trend.
That is certainly what I think.
Tony how do you buy your silver – for me I go for 2014 1 oz Britannias, usig Bullion by Post? A
I respectfully disagree regarding the following major difference: political environment.
Hi Big Al,
A guy named Adolf Hilter was making big news in Europe in the 1930’s. Cycles show that we have entered we have entered a time period where we will some more wars etc. around the world.
Pg, I really hope not!
Hi Big Al
It has nothing to do with us, everything to do with human nature and cycles. This pattern has repeated since the days of the Roman Empire.
Regard,
Socially for sure, economically yeh probably!
Big Al and DOC
Sorry for the poor grammar, as it’s a pain in the ass typing on this iPhone keyboard.
Regards,
Exactly the same situation for me on my Droid!
Hi Big Al,
Like stock markets, human evolution (politics, economics etc…) its a 2 steps forward and one step backwards process. I believe we are going to go thru a very extraordinary period in time, I think I have found a way to accumulate some wealth and pass on the wisdom to my kids.
I think I will know if I am correct in my analysis sometime between this summer and 2020.
What do you think?
Couple of comments:
First of all, yep I believe human evolution is a 2 steps forward and one step backwards process and yes, at least in my mind we are going through a very extraordinary period in time.
Since you have not described your way to accumulate some wealth, I cannot comment on this.
Between this summer and 2020 is a very long time.
Please be more specific.
Lets not forget that cycle theory is still a theory, PG. It offers general targets only and often there are glaring inconsistencies such that practitioners rationalize the system by making smaller and smaller cycle lengths to make the idea fit events. I would not rely on it for anything but the most broad trends such as interest rate rise and falls across decades as an example. Otherwise it is not useful for trading. No more helpful than astrology or numerology. On the other hand…..all of those ideas have merit when you appreciate how many other people use those tools.
You know Bird, I gotta say that as far as precious metals are concerned to me it is all about fundamentals. I know that there appears to be a lot of “bullxxxxx” going on out there but I really believe that fundamentals will win out in the end.
I think that the same is true in the securities sector. That is why I am convinced that the conventional markets will eventually fall and in the short to mid term the resource sector stocks will do well.
This will probably be a recurring theme of discussion in this morning’s Daily Editorials.
Best
Al I think it is the case that we are in a new war cycle. Putin may be filling a powerful nation builder role just like Hitler and the western powers are true to form trying to provoke a new world war through their market manipulations, revolutions, false flag operations, subversive activities and out right lying propaganda. Nothing has changed except the technology and the uniforms.
Hi Big Al,
My research shows me that we are going to see some incredible moves in the financial markets over the next 6 years (both up and down). All of us are watching the same indciators in one way or another and because of the interent, infromation is avaialbe instantaneously. I beleive cycles are being stretched due to the huge amounts of liquidity that are avaialbe throughout the world. Ultimatley anything that goes up (inflation) must come down (deflation). I am fully prepared to the possibility of stocks to top in 2016 and bottoms in Gold and Silver in 2016 and an eventual bull market in commodities in 2016-2020. You have seen my posts with respect to the NYSE CAD line, DOW Jones and Martin Armstrong’s Economic Confidence Model. We need for things to play out and by assuming that “it is different this time”, one could make big mistakes in timing. We have the knowledge and we are in the correct time period – “Be Right and Sit Tight”, there will be opportunites to build wealth both on the long and short side and eventually you will have to trasition your wealth from one asset class to another.
I hope this makes sense.
Regards,
Big Al – hopefully you have also seen my posts that show that the MAJOR Bull Market moves in mining shares over the past 120 years (1930’s, 1970’s, 2000 and 2008) all started with the stock markets in declines. I cannot find a single time when mining shares were starting a bull move as the stock markets were topping, you could say that mining shares were bottoming. We need to be patient and let this cycle play out as it has in the past. Buying too early would not be a bad idea if you can hold right to the bottom (a tough thing to do for the even the best investors/traders). I beleive we will see Gary’s capitualtion but it will extend over many weeks and months as we are all waiting and watching.
NO hurry from me PG!
Doc – no problem, likewise I enjoy your analysis and commentary as I beleive we are all on the same page and looking for the same outcome. I have absolutely no doubt that we will get there, I beleive it is just the route that needs to be determined. I have also been adding (small) amounts to my pm’s stocks positions and loking to add to silver and gold bullion holdings.
Thanks
Interesting, since I’ll be adding to the PMs for the first time in a long time the closer we get to June—-especially if we start trading sideways in this lower point for the next 3-4 weeks. Like we communicated the other day, a lot of the stocks I’ve been purchasing are now trading in very narrow bands. If they break down, I can always sell my positions with minimal carnage and wait for lower pricing. With some of them, most of the move down has probably been accomplished.
Doc – I pointed out I am in Canada, I follow a ton of Gold and Silver mining companies as well as Oil sector companies but take a look at Cameco (Uranium Sector), technically this stock is setting up nicely, RSI, MACD and monthly moving averages etc…).
You should set up a Twitter account and I look forward to whatever venture that you seem to be putting together.
PG; I looked at CCJ and it appears that if you’re patient you’ll be able to pick the stock up at a better price. I believe the RSI and MACD are telling you that. Let’s see what happens in the next few days—-we can kick this one around and watch the technicals to see if I’m correct in my assessment.
Doc – we are on the same page 🙂
Doc – I am looking for CCJ (US) or CCO (Canada) – to bounce around down in this area and I see a double head and shoulders bottom and a few other technical indicators that tell me that after after a few more weeks/months this stock and sector should be ready to take off.
All the uranium stocks are subtly coming to life. Cameco’s TSX chart looks a little better than its NYSE chart. Uranerz ( URZ, both U.S. and Canada ) put in a bullish engulfing candle today with a last-half-hour take-your-breath-away burst of buying, and almost put in an “outside day”. ( missed by one cent on the low. )
You might be on to something there PG. There is certainly the possibility that difficulties with Russia could put a hell of a squeeze on a few commodities. Uranium is in the bulls eye. But so is potash, finished fertilizers and palladium. They are right up there with gas and oil.
The menu of commodity choices of what will rise if conflict heats up is growing.
This is the easy part. The when is a little harder. So it is positioning and waiting that will pay off best. I had once stated here that if I had wanted to squeeze supply globally for key inflation inducing commodities I could not find a more strategic country than Ukraine.
That will do for food and energy. But if I also needed to push up key metals prices that were at risk of falling in price due to a China slowdown I would drive a more direct conflict with Russia (with their cooperation of course….and yes, I am indeed that cynical). In this case that direct conflict has materialized as economic sanctions out of Washington and Europe.
A lot of people are calling Washington’s tactics stupid and mismanaged. I dare to challenge that assertion. They know exactly what they are doing. Nothing is as it appears. The answer to falling resource prices brought on by declines in global aggregate demand are obviously to create conditions that will reduce supply.
So how do you reduce supply when we have just gone through a long period of new mine building and expansion? Well you engineer trade destabilizing policy based on slights and insults and nettlesome behaviors of other countries until everyone is pissed off and starts to restrict in retaliation.
You get the picture. Just look at what Russia produces and exports that are integral to the global economy and make a few notes on where support sits for price. Take note of demand too. Question if anyone might start hoarding in anticipation of a wider conflict. This stuff is all connected. We inflate or die at this stage and I think conflict (possibly even a war) will be the chosen path to get there.
Same as always.
Birdman, if we look back at history, we are about to enter the late 1920’s, as all my technical works shows that we will see all-time stock amrket highs after this next correction (summer 2014) and the real fun starts after the next major stock amrket top…if yo check back in history, mining and commodities related assets had a major bull run from1933-1937 and then I think you want to get a nice cabin somewhere with a lot of wine and food and sit back and watch history unfold.
If only an economic crisis could be enjoyed from the spectator seats, PG. Unfortunately these things tend to be active experiences that draw everyone in no matter where they live. This is probably a very good time to be farming though, I will grant you that. A few folks will be fine off the grid.
I think it is important to keep in mind that the world has been thru this before and jsut different actors and larger amounts of cash (debt) thrown around. It presents great oportunities if you are aware of the steps that we are about to go thru, these steps do not change and it prevents you from saying “It is different this time”.
Agree with that. What worries some of us is that we are in a great fiat experiment that has never been tried before. This time in our lives is unprecedented in all history. Take away all the cash and all the credit and electronic money and maybe one day we have to do an accounting of who has what (that is real) to know where we all really stand. Secretly we all know the collateral backing the dream is not worth squat!
Great point, man!
“Positioning and waiting”, I certainly do agree with that.
Morning Big Al –
Jessie Livermore – “Be Right and Sit Tight” and add on the way up once the indicators tell us that the bottoms are in.
Birdman that was an interesting point you made about real estate in Addis Abba, do you know that if you buy a home in Argentina you must pay all cash upfront or you rent. Argentina has gone bankrupt so many times that the government wants to make sure they get the money. The western world could see the same outcome in the future. They will want the money upfront with an aging population, they don’t want to loose income tax money by death or have real estate losses by default.
Thanks DT. I was not sure if anyone was reading my East Africa comments with any interest lately. This place does seem far away and irrelevant to most people I am sure. But this area is also of very keen interest to most of Asia right now and that is why we must pay attention.
Housing of course is a fascinating topic. Prices have been inflating steadily for a few years now and hit a fever pitch in some regions. It will get a whole lot more intense in the coming years too as 85% of the population here is still rural. In the background there is a huge developing trend to urbanization and a very youthful population of highly mobile people wanting to enjoy a better life.
The cities are where the money and the opportunity is.
What is key here though is that credit itself is not easily available. Banks are not big risk takers. Mortgages do not exist. Car financing is totally unknown and interest rates are extremely high for business that is trying to expand.
Banking itself is closed to all but Ethiopian nationals so bigger outside players are not welcome to introduce competition as the financial sector is still in its infancy and developing slowly. Very, very few people here have an international Visa or Mastercard although a domestic Visa-debit card now exists. It is not good for credit though.
This is a very good policy in my opinion and has served to restrain the conditions that might otherwise result in the same kind of credit bubbles that we have witnessed elsewhere in the globe. Is there not some irony though that housing has still been able to reach near bubble price proportions even without easy credit?
So anyway, banks here are stable and well fortified for domestic purposes. Property markets also have a ceiling limited by an individuals or families ability to raise cash for what they want. Most activity is driven by resales of existing properties. That is to say that if you have land to sell then you can participate in the move-up market as long as you can find a buyer.
This is part of the reason savings are often quite high here despite inflation being double digits in many years. It is because you need all cash to make major purchases like autos and homes. Currently we have official inflation of 8% but off the record it could be closer to double that or more when I start working the numbers. Prices are rising monthly for many goods now and we will certainly see higher posted rates next year.
The price to pay for saving is high though as bank rates are just half what loan interest sits at and inflation rates as I mentioned are on the increase. This means people are much more inclined to marshal resources quickly when there is a need and typically the whole family will pitch in for the purchase of one member.
That’s the old fashioned system, is it not? We could all learn something from that. All for one and one for all.
Pretty interesting society that sounds like it is based on gold old fashioned values.
Human nature is interesting isn’t it? In the “sophisticated west” we have over extension of all types of credit; we have declining moral values; we have a system based on nothing but the greater fool theory.
In Ethiopia there seems to be a sense of good old fashioned values.
Truth in that Al. Most homes here are still multi generational. My wife’s family has 4 generations for example and it is quite typical. So it’s not unusual for a dozen or more people to occupy a house when you include all the kids, relatives and housekeepers. You just get used to having less space and sharing more. No home is ever empty as a rule. Then again, there is a reason bred by needs of the family. There are virtually zero social benefits here. Welfare and unemployment handouts do not exist. Neither do pensions for all but some government workers. The cultural backbone and its strength is based on the family unit just as it has been throughout all history in every country. We North Americans are living a myth that is is constructed on the foundation of creating social equity through taxation but it is now an idea facing default. Nobody will be ready when the curtain comes down on vast social schemes that barely have a 100 year history of evidence to prove they work. The future is really troubling for much of the West.
Doc pointing out the lack of revenue growth explains why major companies are announcing massive buybacks–to keep PE ratios from going to the moon. Lack of top line growth for companies translates into little or no growth in the real economy–and there lies the critical difference between liquidity injected by the Fed and solvency created through economic growth.
The Fed can pump money into Wall Street and the companies can deplete their treasuries on stock buy backs; but at some point the world will walk away from the dollar and the S&P will run out of cash reserves. It’s all a house of cards and we’re approaching a vanishing point.
The liquidity trap is set: Raise interests rates and US deficits skyrocket while market crash as cheap money dries up for carry trades, or continue debauching the dollar and watch household inflation skyrocket as Americans try to buy foreign manufactured goods with an increasingly worthless dollar. So I wonder who do you think is going to get screwed this time? If the past is prologue, ….
Thus the moment of truth is approaching. Throw in a few undeclared wars to further alienate the BRICs who are alreday walking away from the dollar and things will get very interesting.
Also what I find interesting for these companies is the fact their profit margins as related to GSP are over 2 standard deviations from the mean. That’s a huge outlier historically. I understand Jeremy Grantham (the perpetual bear) has finally gone bullish on the conventional markets. I would probably call that a contrarian indicator.
GSP=GDP
Thanks for sharing
Big Al, its always a good approach to constantly compare your portfolio to Mr Markets momentum movers.
Looking back to the decent move the precious metals sector had during July-Aug and again Jan – mid Mar if your holding did not have the same % gains of its peers, dump it! the street momentum players are telling you stock XYZ has no following.
When I started to build my uranium portfolio in 2004 on a daily basis if the stocks in average were moving up 4% and my holding weren’t keeping up I switched to the market movers and was I ever glad to have done so when the sector really got moving in 2007
You may own on paper what may well be THE company to own but if the market momentum is not behind them, its dead money!
You’ve got Al two decent moves within the chop trade channels this past year highlighting key % gainers.
Good Luck!
Thanks Original,
My two biggest holdings right now are NuLegacy Gold and Adamera Minerals. Both are real specs, but if the market turns a bit and/or they get good results, I am off to the races. I also trust the management of these two companies a lot.
Not investment advice, just telling you what I am doing.
Al, it’s a dangerous time to be anywhere you don’t understand the foreign influences, I can’t say anything more than that because I know you can’t either.
The bottom line, Machine Gun, is that everyone who cares about their well-being has to look at the movie on the largest screen possible!
Better believe it!
Interesting thoughts Richard, I’m long the miners using a 2X ETF entered off a 222 level HUI which I hope to feather off in 1/3rds at the 235 level and again at 247 if gold can put in closes above $1331 and $1350
At that point perhaps by mid-May I’ll be looking to short Gold, Silver and the mining sector stocks looking for a June low.
Interesting we are on two different pages after mid-May…….
After 6pm EST and something spooked or kicked gold but especially silver into the 19.50 level and then it climbed back up and down.
Either something happening or algos playing games
Sure did, let’s see where we are in two or three hours.
Okay it’s been a couple of hours and we are at $1310 by $1311.
Let’s give it another couple of hours!
Silver is bouncing around quite a bit in % as compared to gold. 1308.90. 1309.90 and silver below 19.45.
Someone is playing games Al.
Lots of need to keep things in control
Don’t you think that maybe it is simply a very active market with no direction?
Is gold really influenced that much by the dollar right now. Yes in day to day trading perhaps but over the last couple of years, dollar is flat and gold is down 1/3.
Gold has traded much more closely to the Japanese Yen since Sept 2012 and I cannot figure why. Maybe it’s some kind of a currency trade or carry trade thing. However, nobody ever talks about this or explains it, why gold has traded on a macro level with the yen for 2 or 3 years!
Silverbug Dave, I made this post under the weekend report:
Birdman, another currency that will effect Gold’s trend just as the Silver chart and the CDN$ movements are very similar Gold and $Yen are a must comparison.
This is what Armstrong is highlighting, Japanese investors will be bidding up their equity index as well as moving capital into Us equities.
The first mistake goldbugs make imo is when a currency like the Yen is clearly going to be devalued by the BOJ they think the Japanese will run to gold and although fundamentally it makes perfect sense as we look around the globe how many currencies have seen major devaluations in purchasing power where as if one held physical gold they would have been protected….yet gold is still sub $1300
A much lower Yen is NOT gold positive as Abe announced his aggressive approach Nov 2012 a look at the Gold and Yen charts since Nov 2012 clearly shows they follow each other.
Worth reading, by John Mauldin: What do you think Japanese investors will do when they realize what is happening? Buy equities, of course, but also diversify internationally. This move is going to play havoc with cross-border capital flows into all sorts of markets.
Big Al, I think you and your followers will really enjoy this article…gotta love the opening joke, lol
Currency devaluation being the US$ was the #1 reason I bought Gold and Silver in 2002 but one could have invested in anything priced in US$’s and made great gains.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-05/gold-vs-crb-commodity-index
WORD OF ADVICE TO THE BLOGGERS ON THIS SITE , & TO THOSE WHO Don COMMENT…..STICK TO YOUR CONFICTIONS & GUT FEELINGS……The markets are so warped , nobody can follow them.
Typo…..Don..should read DON’T.
2nd typo Tony….Conflictions?!!! Markets so warped they could make a snake walk straight.
Wrapped markets? You really think so?
Interesting, why governments love inflation and hate gold!
This could be the time when the stock market will enter upon its sensational and final phase. When a lot of people start seeing declines and hesitations you can be sure that there is a very good chance the opposite will happen and catch most off guard but it could also be something that is preprogrammed to make us think otherwise while the big players unload.
Possibly, Machine Gun
Gary wilson,
what stocks are you in?
There’s a Canadian junior that bears looking into, only tangentially related to the resource sector, in the sense that it has a patented process for producing the highest quality product for applications that people use every day from paint to toothpaste to yogurt, and we’re talking about a multi-billion dollar business that already has an agreement with the world’s largest paint company, namely Pittsburg Paint. The product is titanium dioxide and the company is Argex Titanium, RGX. check it out for yourself. A number of analysts are calling for a triple. Don’t take my word for it , check it out for yourselves.
thanks Arnie D
I know I’m still in the minority here on this forum…because I’m not convinced yet.
I also know I’m harping on like a broken record (forgive me).
But I still see another downward movement for gold over the next month or so.
…I’m keeping the rest of my powder dry until then.
Cheers.
I am not so sure, Skeeta. I got a very unusual signal last week. So far my interpretation is troubling me but my belief is that we may have bottomed in silver. If that turns out to be correct then gold will not retest after all and my past theory will be thrown out the window. Keep a close eye on metals. They could be in the formative process of a new move up now and will be shedding (and shredding) the bears as they go.
I don’t personally see that downward movement in gold. Just one man’s opinion!
Interesting. Dollar just got its sac tweaked down to 79.13
Confidence in dollar falling
Well Goldbugs!!
2 big issues are unfolding and gold can’t test $1321…….????????????
The US$ Index although the day isn’t over but its trading well below its support zone since last Oct as 74 comes into play
AND a big announcement out of Ukraine as they are going to use part of their IMF loan to BUY $1 Billion worth of GOLD bullion!!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-06/and-first-thing-ukraine-will-buy-imf-money
Looking at the Weekly US$ index chart in 2007-09-11 once a close below 79 was in play a quick weekly drop in the $ took hold….this sets up the 74 area were the MAJOR support across the previous lows 71.33 in 2008 and 72.70 in 2008 create a 74+ support rail.
But lets close below 79 on a weekly basis before we get excited……
Dollar should be breaking upwards, jj….not down. Are we reading the same dollar chart? Doc keeps calling for a dollar decline too. I respect his opinion but that is not happening in my books. Right now it is trading right in the middle of its 5 year range. What makes you say it is about to fall?
I mean to say the dollar has a lot of support where it sits right now. Are you brave enough to bet it breaks below that support on its way to 74? I sure would not do it without a few stiff drinks. Let me have a closer look at the Euro, back to you later…..
Would not make any investments based on the $ action or the Euro with the ECB meeting Thurs…..the meeting is not suppose to bring any surprizes but Draghi could suggest the strong Euro needs to be addressed looking forward….???
He might feel backed into a corner if it breaks above 1.40 so they market could be testing his resolve to put action with words.
OK….after one quick look I would suggest you restrain your enthusiasm for just a day or two. The Euro, Yen, Loonie, Swissie and Ozzie are all approaching key resistance as an outcome of today’s dollar move. A seriously sweet play is lining up if you have a good gut instinct for what will happen next. I won’t make a call though. Not yet anyway.
Birdman, I’m not saying the $ will do anything, its the chart action that suggest its action as key levels come into play, we could get a real pop in the $ if Thurs Draghi gives any signal of a desired lower Euro with his help….we’ll see
Both the Pound and Euro are up this am dragging the $ down to test that key 79 level.
We should be testing $1321 gold this am
I agree. The dollar should move up on Draghi news. Perhaps it has been sold off in anticipation? We have seen this play out before. The dollar will decline and then everyone gets on the bandwagon in anticipation of a big drop….and then POW…it hits you right between the eyes when it takes off like a banshee in the opposite direction screwing everyone who was trying to play the directional game down. Lets see what happens Thursday. Maybe the ECB will announce a program is in the works.
Norcini imo nails todays Euro$ action and the ripple effects:
http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.ca/2014/05/strong-european-pmi-data-boosts-euro.html
Thanks again jj. I have had no time to catch up on news today so had no idea what was going on.
Hello JJ and Birdman. I am not a chart reader though I do watch and follow the readers of all of those who do. The dollar and Euro are at critical levels. Dollar .1 away from breaking 79 and Euro just a scouch from 140. With unemployment at record highs in the ECB the European community can not afford a strong Euro yet it’s climbing. Meanwhile major players of the wid are indicating a move away from DXY which is already flooding the market from the currency wash of the fed that continues. The fed dealer may have given out too much heroin to the junkie market and what once provided a high may cause a crash. Will we go through a cleansing and get off the stimulus or will we OD?
I think dollar falls, Euro struggles and starts QE in the fall, bonds rally, stocks fall and gold/silver climb.
I expect the Julys data reports of GDP, unemployment and horrible q2 data will tip the market over the edge
These guys do a great daily on the key currencies vs the US$ as well as gold and silver
Thanks jj.
DUBAI…………TO BUILD gold refinery……….and START EXCHANGE BY June…….
Spot prices for metal on the London and Ny………will not be controlled any longer.
Does this mean………..OIL FOR DOLLAR…might be in trouble……..
FRANKFORT ISSUES FIRST BOND……….backed BY Chinese currency………, think the DOLLAR might be in trouble……………………
The Goethe Bond or Dim Sum bond is not a direct shot at the US$
The Swiss Franc has taken a direct hit from global trade payments as the renminbi becomes more liquid
As it the Yaun becomes more liquid it will allow big corporations to do payments exchanges in Yaun instead of Euro$/Yuan or Swiss Franc/Yuan….Ruppe/Yuan
London, Singapore and Hong Kong have alreay done so, Frankfurt has now offered the bond as well
Not a direct hit………….but, like being hit with BUCKSHOT, still hurts……
agreed its still a move in the direction of China increasing its global trade in its currency which of course includes the US$
remember the massive US$ swaps the Feds did with ECB ….the US$ still has massive liquidity vs any other currency thanks to its global reserve status.
Massive pieces of fiat paper, backed by the full faith of the govt., supported by the tax payer base, which is in deterioration…..
Is it any wonder governments of the G7 are looking at a cashless society…..they are turning over rocks looking for tax revenues.
So we go 100% cashless ALL digital transactions, how will you pay the plumber cash vs a receipt transaction when we won’t have cash available to cheat the tax man…its coming as governments around the world turn to higher taxation.
You will not have to worry about paying the plumber ………..the govt. will pay him..
But, since the plumber needs a license,,,,,he will be a govt. employee……and will have to charge twice as much, so he can give a kick back to the govt. agency head in charge of issuing the permit…….to clean the toilet……and of course there will be a surcharge on any paper used during the investigation for illegal waste paper plugging the system.
Sorry don’t follow your point???
What they are going after is all cash transactions that they are currently missing out on regarding tax collections, from garage sales to drugs to cash for services, plumber, mechanic…..hookers etc
Yup. Thus the recent trends to legalize prostitution, decriminalize some drug possession and legalize marijuana etc. While everyone is at it there are trends to clamp down on flea markets with extra licensing and oversight and to capture more of the illegal trades revenues through confiscation where criminality has occurred. Homes and autos are targets where organized crime can be proven. So are bank accounts where you cannot prove the source of income. Everything is monitored.
I should have just said joke at the end…………..
just out of interest J the Long….what age are you?
10-15….15-20….20-25….you post like its a twitter account, maybe placing what you have to say in a full paragraph will have idiots like me understanding your point?
original jj………..remember you said it not me………
but, for your information……..66yr. old………
keeping in style with the times………old farts still have a brain….
AND may I be so bold , as to ask you what your age is……….?
I am sure you have heard , the kids say………OLD AND WINDY., I keep that in mind.
Windy in what sense?
A very old and confused 57………bring back the bull markets our Father’s enjoyed!
How about a very old and confused (somewhat) 70!
Most places I visit these days, there seems to be consensus that gold/silver ratio is most definitely heading lower (now approx 66).
Am I the only one who thinks it’s entirely possible to see 90 before we see 20?
Linking this article from August as it has a nice gold/silver ratio chart going back to ’75.
Irwin, Bob Hoye does some great work regarding the Gold/Silver ratio
You better hope unless your well short Everything!…that it does not shoot to 90 as Hoye points out the ratio was at 88 when the wheels fell off the global markets, sending Silver down from $19.50-$8.40 the HUI from 480-150 and the Dow 11870-6470…he see’s it as a signal of liquidation around the globe drying up…he has mentioned lately to keep an eye as closing above 69 signals financial system alert!!
Thanks jj
This is the link I kept that Bob showed the link between a high ratio and credit markets:
This not related to anything specifically, but an interesting talk from Jim OShaughnessy.
After the introductions and jokes, the presentation starts at 9:00
http://webex.investools.com/content/edday/wallstreetstrategiesfortheinvestor.html
Thanks Doc…