Wednesday and The Doctor Is In
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Best performing gold stock of consequence today hands down Pretium, PVG
Doc
You have mentioned several times about tracking three indicators that are converging which I have interpreted to mean Bullish for gold if and when it occurs. Is that still on target for late May?
Goldman, the 3 technicals I’m watching are for silver since based on those, silver will have to make a choice before gold. I figure that as silver goes, so should gold on a general basis. The first one silver will have to deal with is a long term down trend line—-if silver stays in the range it is, than the pricing will be challenged by that line very close to the end of May. The 2 other technicals impacting silver are a triangle on the weekly chart (as is the downtrend line) and the 50 week MA. You have all 3 technicals almost coming together at the same time, however, the first one will be the downtrend line. I’ll continue to draw attention to these as pricing moves toward them. But then again, silver could break down any time before that although the technicals don’t suggest it currently.
Thank you
Silver has now just passed three years ionto its bear market. Bob Hoye is calling for a cyclical bull market in gold and gold stocks to come soon but I note that he calls it only a cyclical bull market, perhaps meaning that this is within a secular bear? That could be somewhat like the cyclical bull in goldiin 1985-1987 perhaps.
What do you think Richard?
Is this still a secular bull marke in godl and silver. Could it satill be called a secular bull with silver under $20 after 3 years have passed from the high at $50 at the start of May 2011?
I believe it’s still a secular bull market in the PMs. If we get through this spring without new lows in gold, we enter the seasonal strong months. The odds of it seeking a new low during this period of time are very low. If we get through the season without a new low, it would be a very unusual secular bear market that would then see a new low that long a time from the previous low.
Doc I’m just not understanding your seasonal call, May yes but that’s during the bull market not these past couple years and June along with Aug has produced the lows.
Doc – history shows that we will see a bull market in mining stocks and commodities after the next major top in the stock indexes, last comparable period in history saw silver bottom in dec. 1932, DOW bottomed in June 1932, mining stocks bottomed in summer 1931. We have a longways to go but I will bet most silver and gold bulls will have capitulated and given up by he time this bull market bottoms……imo
Back in December and January there was a period of silver volatility (see the weekly chart) that I was sure was signaling a bottoming process. Then in February prices broke out and I was thinking, OK, this is the end of the declines. That was not to be though. Right now it again looks like we are repeating that volatile price bottoming process right in the same range as last December…….but I really have no idea if this time will be different.
And so I discover slowly that the more I learn the less I know.
Doc.
2nd question. If the Dow up is a flight to safety out of Russell and QQQ then why not gold and what will it take to switch? If Russell,Qqq and S&p correct can hold hold up?
I know unlikely but DOW up 100 is odd
I think the Dow responded positively to the Ukraine situation. In spite of the response today, the charts don’t signal any impressive break higher at this time. The Russell’s PE ratios are ridiculous and it appears the russell is in trouble—the nasdaq doesn’t look that strong either. I believe that the possible driver for gold could still be the dollar. If it breaks down, you might finally see gold along with some other commodities respond. At least, that’s what I’m hoping for.
Well Doc the charts are suggesting we are at very key turning points….Euro$ 139.50…US$ Index 79.25….Gold $1285…HUI 220….if Draghi verbally speaks down the E$ then we could see gold close below $1280 which take out previous lows looking across to late March, HUI could test -215 as the US$ reacts higher with Draghi calling the Euro$ down.
Thurs am could be the start of a new trend, not looking bullish in the precious metals sector setting up a nasty June low
Here is the real pain in the ASS as I’ve been short twice the bullion and the miners after the $1525 and $26 levels collapsed and again early Sept….with the obvious short covering any HOT news out of Ukraine creates its too risky to put on a short regardless of a possible sub $1180 low in gold during June…..
So we sit 100% cash waiting for a confirmed bottom and that’s not stink bid fishing but waiting for resistance levels to be taken out.
I need a good stiff drink!!!
I WILL BE A STIFF…. BEFORE GOLD MOVES UP AGAIN.
Once again, we are at a key turning point—-the next few days will again be key.
It’s always the next few days, week or month. Face it Richard despite all your predictions most things in life just lumber along until something unpredictable happens and then the tea readers say ” I told you so”.
D.T……ditto
Ok. One more thought. Today’s Dow move puts us 140 points away from Tom Demarks call for 16660 top and them 11% minimum correction
Goldman, I listened to him recently—-it’ll be interesting if he’s correct. There certainly isn’t any incipient strength signs on the charts for the conventional markets at this time. I believe the end of May could begin a sell off.
I have the feeling that what you, Gary, Rick, Chris and Tom see in the charts should play out in most instances but the level of control by the Fed Banks and algos just takes away the expected. It’s criminal.
I don’t think the market can ignore the coming numbers in July ( Q 2 data) and 20 billion more on taper. I see a crazy end of June or beginning of July.
The markets should be way down and solid tangible assets up but we wait until they lose control
The Russell also is telling us the rest of the conventional market is now at risk. The divergences are gathering steam.
This take down on gold………was totally LONDON………Pre YELLEN SUPPORT, and a leg up or support for the stock market………..What could anyone expect………..plus, it is WED. BY FRIDAY, we will be back to the same spot as last Friday………MY quess….
I BOUGHT GOLD AT $430 AN OUNCE TODAY.
Buy Silver at 67 Silver/Gold ratio with GOLD at 1290.
Trade the silver for gold if/when it ever reaches 32 again.
That is my story I sticking to it!
nice…………..
very niiiice……
Well it appears that the Constitution is considered contraband in the state of Hawaii. According to the Daily Caller:
Students Merritt Burch and Anthony Vizzone, members of the Young Americans for Liberty chapter at UH-Hilo, were prevented from handing out copies of the Constitution at a recruitment event in January. A week later, they were again informed by a censorship-minded administrator that their First Amendment-protected activities were in violation of school policy.
According to the complaint, an administrator told Burch and Vizzone that if they wanted to protest the school’s policy, they could do so in the college’s “free speech zone,” described by FIRE as a one-third acre area on the edge of campus.
The “free speech zone” at UH Hilo represents less than one percent of the college’s total area and is muddy and prone to flooding, according to a FIRE news release.
Let us never forget: The whole United States is a “free speech zone,” from sea to shining sea. Don’t let anyone tell you different
Don’t show anyone a copy of the American constitution in the U.S. you might get arrested.
I wonder if anyone will ever figure out whats going on?
Think about what a University says it is?
“An environment fostering the exchange of ideas.”
But in reality is an “Animal Farm”.
The constitution on the wall of the barn is being painted over.
The universities are just a paper mill, and a debt noose attached to it……..the debtors(students) will be in bondage for a long time, if they do not pay as they go, or save inadvance…… HAVE YOU,….Ever, checked out the default clauses on a student loan……..
There is much talk of a troop pull-back by the Russians from the Ukraine border.
This has turned out to be a red herring so far. NATO is saying there is no evidence at all of a troop pull back.
This is just another game and Putin knows how to play it.
Looking more and more like the top in June ’81 before the bear that didn’t bottom until August of ’82.
Norcini does an excellent recap of todays events and touches on the lack of gold demand out of China, well gold couldn’t make new highs these past few years when demand was so strong out of China, maybe it will now that demand is backing off….lol
http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.ca/2014/05/yellen-speaks-gold-breaks.html
Stranger things have happened.
In 2012 when gold was consolidating, dollar was strong as expected.
But dollar has been weak during gold’s current consolidation, and that is a concern from the inter market relationship perspective.
Summary
Long term – on major sell signal since Mar 2012.
Short term – on mixed signals.
Gold sector cycle – down as of 3/21, ending the up cycle since 12/27.
COT data is not supportive for higher prices overall.
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May 3, 2014
Jack Chan
Looks like Mr Chan might be agreeing with Mr Norcini
As long as the gold and silver markets are controlled by insiders it is safe to buy and take delivery until you can’t and don’t sell. There will be no voluntary rise in prices that is beneficial to investors until the current political/ financial order is overthrown.
I think it might be that simple.
Well Doc exactly what I thought was going to unfold did off the lips of Draghi, its well know 140 is the line in the sand for the strength of the EURO$ just as Draghi talked it was trading 139.94 and the US$ Index had fallen under 79….Poof and PoP….Euro$ falls over a full cent and the US$ index is well back above 79 the key levels have seen reversals as Draghi suggests June will see a form of QE which will further devalue the Euro$
If the Ukraine issue was not in play gold would be taking out the key $1272 support
Between now and June Draghi and others can talk BS about the coming Euro QE capping imo and advance in the Euro$…..we can forget the US$ breaking down towards 74 anytime soon and that will pull the support out for gold and silver
Waiting for a decent purge of both gold and silver producing a lot lower June price
I hate the PM markets but it is all I know now. This market has been trashed and will be trashed more. I made money in Jan and Feb out of those lows and am invested for a bounce and then an exit but the second bounce has not come. This market has been and may continue to be a waste of time, money and effort. I resolved but did not follow through to buy Magna shares at $35 (now over $100)but stuck with the PMs and instead of tripling my money I have lost money. Stupid is as stupid invests in PMs.
Jim Puplava says conventional markets have room to keep going up. Enter the PMs at your own risk IMHO.
I thought this chart was breaking down but it looks like a break out now IMHO.
Dan read Hoye’s take on your ratio chart
http://www.safehaven.com/article/33716/rotation-oils-to-precious-metals
I am surprised Bob didn’t say anything about a G/S ratio in the 70s or 80s before this turns around for a tradable bounce. The gold market sucks hands down IMHO.
The ubiquitous, anti-conventional attraction of gold is what sucks people into this market. To play the gold market one is playing against everything else.
Silver is an enigma wrapped in an illusion and thrown out with the garbage.
Dan EVERYTHING must be traded in todays markets.
The Biggest illusion is that those who never sell are always playing the to da moon shot….you watch the action everyday it seems, if take-off unfolded you’d be able to get onboard….another trade set up always unfolds….look at any chart
Data and history shos that stocks will keep going up into at least late 2015, SP500 and DOW close to new all-time highs, would resolve divergence to NYSE CAD line all-time hihg last friday may 2nd. Mining equities historically will not start a bull move till stock indexes into to bear market decline, this pattern has not changed over the past 120 years. (4 major bull market moves for mining stocks all occurred during bear market declines in stocks (1930’s, 1970’s, 2000 and 2008). Next substantial bull market in mining stocks to start between late 2015-2016 at the earliest.
Agree this trade has been in place since Sept 2011, global capital is flowing into US equities, why would the momentum players look to the precious metals sector??
Any of the decent pops we’ve had within the gold and silver sector these last couple years has been Short Covering NOT new long buyers
I have pointed out these steps that must occur for the top to occur in the stock indexes as this pattern has not changed since 1900’s:
1) CAD line tops
2) DOW will make all-time new highs but CAD line will diverge and not take put previous high as fewere stock will take stock indexes to new highs
3)The above 2 events will occur with a 1-2 year window of Martin Armstrong’s ECM, next ECM top date is 2015.75, last 2 dates were 2007.?? and 1998.?? and even 1929.?? was an ECM. Unless you beleive things are different this time, it could be very costly. Just have to be patient for things to play out. If one had bete against this pattern over the past 120 years, one would have be wrong every single time. (this is what I find amazing).
Putin is playing the west like a “master”.
Now we find out survivors from the burning alive of people were strangled to death.
Isnt it nice that we back the “good guys”?