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Too many people are bearish on gold

May 28, 2014

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85 Comments
    CFS
    May 28, 2014 28:24 AM

    I hope you are right, Gary.
    I am glad I’m diversified though. It seems recently the rising tide has lifted all boats except the heavier metals. (But PMs are good ballast for now)

    May 28, 2014 28:24 AM

    Words of wisdom Gary, don’t bottom stink bid trade in a Bear market which Gold clearly is in for years now. Wait for confirmation gold is back on its feet, it was fine bottom feeding during the Swiss stair step bull market gold enjoyed for 11 years. Now gold needs to prove its self to the longs.

    The key Gary will it produce the classic Dead Cat Bounce as it retests backfill areas before continuing its decent into June…remember last June!

    Or will it start a new trend like last July and this Jan riding a new long wave…the highs are coming in lower and lower Gary on the gold chart.

      May 28, 2014 28:30 AM

      This si why I don’t use technicals to tell me when to look for turns. At major bottoms and tops the charts are just going to confirm that price is heading up or down as the case may be. You need different tools to spot major trend changes. Cycles and sentiment are the tools of choice to predict when a major turn will occur.

      Based on those two tools i expect a major bottom in the next 2-5 days.

        May 28, 2014 28:31 AM

        Interesting Gary, June has not been kind to gold certainly during the last 2 years and even during the bull run, July is a big up month.

        Is the cycles tied to seasonal swings at all, an early June Gold bottom would be odd

        http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=$GOLD

          May 28, 2014 28:02 AM

          Cycles are tied to sentiment. It typically takes each asset a defined amount of time to reach sentiment extremes and when it does the trend changes. Gold is in the timing band for an intermediate trend change and sentiment is at levels where an asset that is in a bull market usually reverses.

          Now if gold is still in a bear market then sentiment will need to reach a deeper extreme before gold reverses. I think gold is probably ready to resume its secular trend so I’m looking for a bottom in the next several days.

      CFS
      May 28, 2014 28:42 AM

      As I recall last July volume was very low. It does not seem low now……a difference?

      I don’t know…..but then I don’t trade much.

    CFS
    May 28, 2014 28:35 AM

    Interesting buying that went on in silver at 19.

    A lot of folks bottom fishing.

      May 28, 2014 28:42 AM

      I wouldn’t fish the bottom till the sinker hits the sand!

        May 28, 2014 28:45 AM

        However, bottoms look most bearish and reversals are mostly dead cat bounces. Not sure how to tell the difference.

    May 28, 2014 28:37 AM

    Hey … Where’s Doc?

    CFS
    May 28, 2014 28:36 AM

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/nypd-to-be-equipped-with-naloxone-kits-to-fight-heroin-overdose/

    Not a recommendation, but everyday, just reading headlines gives me ideas for investments, especially in Pharma….

    Not a recommendation, the bird has flown, or is flying.

    May 28, 2014 28:44 AM

    Gary have a look at this long term CRB index chart, you are going to need a breakout my man if your projection is to unfold….Jan 1st produced a nice pop into March where it met major resistance.

    http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_23304762.jpg?1401296056

      May 28, 2014 28:05 AM

      Commodities need to take a breather after that big move up at the beginning of the year. AG and metals have started moving down and the rest of the sector is just waiting on energy to start down into its intermediate correction. It may have begun today.

    CFS
    May 28, 2014 28:44 AM

    Hospira makes naloxone, to save folks the effort of finding out, but like I sat the bird has flown on that.
    Scanning insider data is sometimes interesting……You would be surprised how much goes on just before major announcements.
    There aren’t many honest company CEOs anymore that don’t use inside info.

    Finally since you have not commented, jj, on another comment I made this one’s for you:
    http://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/37972265/Never%20Gone%20-%20Backstreet%20Boys.mp3

    May 28, 2014 28:47 AM

    CRB index and Silver….sisters?….sure looks to be rolling over together imo

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CRB&p=W&yr=3&mn=7&dy=0&id=p37664561480&a=340331030&listNum=1

      May 28, 2014 28:10 AM

      jj, not sure why you hang around here. Here are mostly contrarian investor and you are contrarian to the contrarian which makes you a mainstream investor. Here should be boring for you.

      Just curious.

        May 28, 2014 28:33 AM

        Hear, hear Lawrence…..

          May 28, 2014 28:42 AM

          What’s your reason for being here Marc, are you a always buy side investor? or are you looking to learn anything?

            May 28, 2014 28:28 PM

            Sure. Fair question. I am a buy-side investor that is protecting two generations of wealth. I am not prepared or wanting to trade this market that is manhandled by greedy-self centered insiders that really could care less if you are starving, dead, barely alive or otherwise. I have said many times on this blog – long before you were here – if you are trading this market – have at it and good luck. You will certainly need it. And please dont cry when “you” get shut out of the physical market when the door closes and you have accumulated a lot of paper trading wealth..that wont be worth enough to wipe your arse with. The other thing: I dont appreciate your persistent negative slants on this PM current vicious cyclical bear market. There are many, many readers here that dont understand the need for absolute protection from the marketplace. Everybody should have a solid PM core position. They will interpret your sophisticated (sometimes) comments based on ‘real time’ analysis as a severe negative to establishing sometype of long-term position. Therefore, in the long run, they will be hurt and most of their wealth will evaporate. People cant ascertain trading vs. the BIG PICTURE. I TRY TO KEEP PEOPLE LOOKING AT THE BIGGER PICTURE……NOW do you get it.

            May 28, 2014 28:55 PM

            No I don’t get it Marc. Please be a bit more explicit!

            Damn, bit my tongue again!

            May 28, 2014 28:47 PM

            We the fortunate Marc who do have family wealth must protect its value from the governments of the world as they always turn on their own.

            I can feel your anger, your disappointment with your holdings, right back at you, its your position don’t cry about it.

            Okay so this web-site is only for those that hold physical metals and their miners no matter what the value, hmm

            My negative slants towards the pm’s sector, really! its not my slant hell its gold and silver and the miners value that is putting the negative slant in your face, if and when the trend reverses I will be a long just like you, sorry isn’t this about making money?

            Am I telling you to sell, I’m I telling you to dump your physical holdings?

            What is it with you people you think for the first time in history we are going to wake up and some entity is going to price gold at $50gs so my highlighting a weaker market will mean some here didn’t add to their holdings and miss the $1258 to $50,000 move.

            Your kidding right, seriously!

            Never where your Tin Foil hat close to the micro-wave when its running it will Fck you up!

            Okay everybody get out there and sell your house, wife kids, dog anything that not nailed down and BUY GOLD!!!!

            So Marc, you don’t like Doc, who suggested $1260 gold, Gary who called the top March 17th or tricky Rick suggesting $10 silver is possible…hmmm….WHY ARE YOU HERE?????

            May 28, 2014 28:31 PM

            Gotta make a correction here Original.

            Not everyone on this site is purely into precious metals. I seriously believe that is a misconception.

            Take Marc for example. By his own admission, 20% in physical and the rest in real estate. What is wrong with that?

            Take me for another example. 33% in real estate; 33% in conventional stocks; and, 33% (about) in some facet of the hard asset sector.

            Please, please and please we really try to stress diversification my friend.

            May 28, 2014 28:38 PM

            Al, WTF is going on?

            I could careless if everyone is 100% long silver or 110% short silver, I never said anyone should hold a position solely in anything!

            THe majority of the commentary here is about gold and your guests remarks are mainly on the pm’s markets, who cares, I’m not suggesting this is a goldbugger web-site but Holly H people freal out her cause one guy is short and making money while they saty long what they believe in, I’m not rubbing it anyones face, WTF

            Diversificate to your hearts content……….why would I suggest otherwise, go crazy!

            May 28, 2014 28:44 PM

            Thanks man, not satire at all intended.

            We are having fun. Taking things seriously and personally (and I don’t mean you necessarily) is simply insane.

            Best

        May 28, 2014 28:40 AM

        Lawrence I was here many, many moons ago while gold was in its bull run, then when $1525 fell I went to the dark side and traded the short side of gold, silver and the miners, so I left here for over a year and returned only because Al has brought in some excellent market commentary on a daily basis, where else can you get this?

        I’d say that makes me THE contrarian trader vs those here with the always buy the dips opinion.

        I’ll be looking to get long again when the charts suggest so just as they did last July and early Jan.

        Imo Lawrence everything must be traded, buy and hold is a thing of the past, if one wants to make great % gains vs living with Hope as a driver behind your portfolio.

        Why are you here?

          May 28, 2014 28:09 PM

          Thanks for the explanation. You are definitely not contrarian since if you go to the general investment sites, your opinions will be buried in the crowd. This site attracts real contrarians so they are majority. You can say the site is a contrarian site and you are on the other side. Hope you get what I mean.

          I do trade silver and PM stocks but rarely trade gold since they are locked in my safety deposite box. The Central fund of Canada may be the only gold ETF I trade. But my trading is long term. The bullion I bought in 2004 is still with me. I sell some in Spring and buy back in the summer. The only exception is 2010&2011. I sold all my PM stock except 900 shares of SVM plus 25% silver ETF.

          I come here because Al is a common sense investor. He also gets a lot of good guests like Rick Rule, Jay Taylor, David Morgan, etc. I also vist several other sites but this is the only one I can make comments.

            May 28, 2014 28:16 PM

            Well I might disappear again if Silver breaks below $18 and Gold $1180 as there will be a lot pain in the long positions here and I’m not going to post while I’m short as that would suggest much lower targets will be in play….we’ll see if these turns real ugly or not.

            Continued Good Luck to you Lawrence

            May 28, 2014 28:25 PM

            JJ, you should understand the difference between fundmental investor and trader. There is a difference between sage and labourer. Both are OK. You should not require everyone work the same way. Not that many people can watch the market from minute to minute.

            May 28, 2014 28:35 PM

            Just to make no confusion, I sold 25% of my silver in 2011 not keeping 25%.

            May 28, 2014 28:36 PM

            Fundamentals, ah yes the old Wall St template applied to all the brokers pushing their mutual funds etc.

            Applying fundamentals alone Lawrence Gold should be what $5000 today….I can’t afford to apply fundamentals as since the first US fed bailout of Tarp the fundamentals don’t apply, not imo

            PRICE is everything, I value my investment portfolio at every close based on what Mr Market values my investments at not on what fundamentals “should” be pricing them at.

            I may think my home is worth $2mill but if there is only buyers at $1.5mill that’s Reality.

            And you are so correct regarding being able to watch tic by tic, if a major announcement hits the news wires I can react, adding to my short position or covering going 100% cash or get long.

            May 28, 2014 28:11 PM

            jj, you may be really smart and the only one who is good at swing trade. If I do the trade your way, the commssion alone will kill me let alone I will be wrong most of the time on identifying what will happen next. Market direction only becomes obvious from hindsight but you put orders for the past.

            Great luck to you.

            May 28, 2014 28:08 PM

            jj, I am extremely sorry if I irratated you. I just came to the blog about a week ago so I have no chance to read your earlier posts. I never read the posts before. If I saw your words above, I would have understand why you are here. We have very similar assessment to the current financial system and we are just SLIGHTLY different on the way to implement the strategy.

            All the best to you.

            May 28, 2014 28:17 PM

            Trust me Lawrence. If you think that you irratated me you are absolutely wrong. I listen to everyone with no emotions before, during and/or after.

            Stay with us!

            May 28, 2014 28:40 PM

            Big Al Lawrence was talking to me, jj

            Lawrence you’ve haven’t upset me and to be honest who cares if you have, no big deal!

            WTF is this a school yard of 10 year olds

          May 28, 2014 28:38 PM

          JJ,
          You are the typical kid on a playground who doesnt listen to anything anyone else says: HERE IT IS AGAIN….read nice and s…l…o….w…….gold and silver are real money…everything else is a CURRENCY. OK…..now…when you have unprecedented GLOBAL money printing; massive debt accumulation;rampant mal-investment; and complete dis-location of fiat currency wealth of the last 40 years vs. a s…t…o…r…e of v…a…l…u…e that is massively undervalued – where is an investor with half-a-brain- going to preserve their wealth….YES!!! DING, ding ding – gold and silver…and gold and silver are only 20% of my total net wealth…I didnt sell my real estate, dog, siblings or anything else..to accumulate my PM’s…..Go ahead trade and make money…you obviously dont get my strategy…oh and BTW, when NOT IF, the PM’s rise in nominal value – do you really think I will sell for more paper currency – NO..I will trade it in for more real estate when it turns over……unlike you I go after REAL WEALTH – real estate and hard assets – you stay in a paper game that is fast ending with a reset or severe de-valuation…this is my last response…I dont have time for this…..
          All the BEST,

            May 28, 2014 28:50 PM

            Marc, sell an oz of silver and seek some professional help.

            Good luck! with your anger management, I feel your pain, I really do.

            All the best to you as well….jj

            May 28, 2014 28:24 PM

            Thanks Original for your response to Marc.

            Marc, I happen to agree with you, but then you know that don’t you.

            May 28, 2014 28:35 PM

            Fascinating. I have got to spend more time on this site.

    May 28, 2014 28:54 AM

    I feel someone is dumping gold and cover silver shorts using the relationship between gold and silver. Otherwise, gold silver ratio should shoot up fast for the last few days. Instead it is going down. It is extremely rare on a consistent basis. I remember that John Embry brought this up several years ago. Central banks have gold but not silver. The relationship between gold and silver can be used to rescue the underwater silver shorts. In 2008, the GSR went to 87.

      May 28, 2014 28:02 AM

      May is silver contract month.

    CFS
    May 28, 2014 28:39 AM

    OFF TOPIC:

    I wonder why the US Army is protecting the poppy fields in Afghanistan.

    http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/dyinginafghanistan.php

      May 28, 2014 28:55 AM

      Thank’s CFS beautiful INFO ! Nice !

    May 28, 2014 28:48 AM

    We know the evil bankster have massive ego’s so who was it that said a couple weeks ago Gold wouldn’t close above $1300 again, BOA, JPM, GS….hmm so what do they know, interesting?

    Tom
    May 28, 2014 28:09 PM

    I’ve started buying physical….I consider myself very lucky to be able to buy gold at this at this time period and at this price…I am a firm believer that will will break 5,000 in three years maximum.

      May 28, 2014 28:15 PM

      Hi Tom ! Buy Buy man take your time and Buy . I start buy gold 2003 2004 and the negativity was don’t buy dis . So BUY and good luck !

    CFS
    May 28, 2014 28:18 PM

    Reasons why the US should not go into Syria:

    http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article36076.htm

    Reason why US should not go into war with China:
    http://thediplomat.com/2014/04/putin-approves-sale-of-s-400-to-china/

    The US thinks it has superiority, but I’m no longer so sure about that.

    May 28, 2014 28:23 PM

    Too many people are bearish right now equals = a buy signal.
    Too many people are bullish right now equals = lighten up…..literally.

      May 28, 2014 28:08 PM

      Been that way in the past, Dennis M!

    CFS
    May 28, 2014 28:29 PM

    Interesting election going on in Egypt…….

    Poles were open for two days and hardly anyone voted. Now they have held poles open, and ordered citizens to vote.

    If you remember; Egyptians had elected Morsi, who was displaced by a CIA-inspired Coup.
    Apparently are not too keen on Morsi’s replacement.

    Wonder if EGPT might be worth buying. Hmmm.

      May 28, 2014 28:08 PM

      Forcing people to vote. Now that is interesting!

      May 28, 2014 28:50 PM

      That is an excellent article, thanks!…….You thinking of buying all of Egypt CFS, lol

        CFS
        May 28, 2014 28:54 PM

        Nah. Have you ever smelled a camels breath? You’d think they graze in fields of garlic.

          May 28, 2014 28:57 PM

          Holly crap CFS you own a camel too….why don’t you make a short list of what you don’t own…..just kidden!

    May 28, 2014 28:51 PM

    Is it possible that everyone is expecting the yearly summer low to be sometime between June and August but instead we get it in the coming days or the first week of June?

      May 28, 2014 28:57 PM

      Anything is certainly possible Bob!

    May 28, 2014 28:59 PM

    Richard, AKA Doc……you out there?

    Hope when those BollongerBands snapped you took your own advice seeing HUI 211 fall and went to cash.

    Looking forward to you opinion looking into June

    May 28, 2014 28:13 PM

    Jj if I looked into the archives when gold was headed 1600plus would you be buying? Shorting? Where you on the sunny side? Lol

      May 28, 2014 28:30 PM

      I was following the chart (of course) and Sinclair as he had a $1650 target for gold so I sold 1/2 my position and sold the other 1/2 at $1800 on the way down off the $1923 highs. Rebought at $1650 and traded until the Big purge from $1550 all from the long side.

      Let me know what short etf your using and I’ll put up the chart

        May 28, 2014 28:37 PM

        I don’t short jj. I’m not against doing so.

          May 28, 2014 28:51 PM

          Great to have you back 12 year!

            May 28, 2014 28:58 PM

            oh no! Al’s calling you a 12 year old again Glen………………….get it 12 year old scotch

            May 28, 2014 28:10 PM

            Common man, let’s not start trouble!

        May 28, 2014 28:04 PM

        jj. this is my last comment of the days. I have been wasting too much time in the last few days. Your trading for the first half is similar to me but for the second part it is opposite to me. Since gold dropped from 1550 to 1320 in two days, unless you sold during those two days, it is very close to the current price. Considering you have to pay interest for shorting at 7-9% a year, you haven’t made much money. Short ETF usually carry high decay rate especially 2X and 3X. I admit that I haven’t done too well during the last two years, but I am consistent – in the height of bull market I sell and in the height of bear market I buy. And you sell at height of bull market and sell at height of bear market, then where do you buy? I don’t quite understand. Considering silver has lost all the gains since QE (5X money supply increase), it cannot be at the high now. Gold is not much better. Do you change position often?

          May 28, 2014 28:21 PM

          Lawrence I honestly never ever thought I would short the pm’s sector, ever!

          Its not me that determines that its the price action. Any of the 2or3X etfs must be trending to max gains if they are stagnate your losing capital, its the big up moves like last July or this Jan that makes for great % gains using these etfs.

          Silver as an example, if last June’s action repeats than a swift move lower could happen so my current short silver etf at $20 would/should produce nice gains.

          Lets not make this any more complicated than it is….big moves up ride and get off when they rollover, big moves down ride and get off when they turn positive.

          I don’t create the market like I was telling Marc, I’m going to be a bull again when its time to do so, imo these last two weeks have been telling ME to be short, that’s it.

            May 28, 2014 28:25 PM

            And that Original makes sense to me in the short term. I mean, what the heck, Mr. Market is Mr. Market!

      May 28, 2014 28:31 PM

      Trader is zero sum game and investing is not. For trading you have to be in GS’s league since they own the mojority of the wining trades.

        May 28, 2014 28:53 PM

        I happen to agree with you Lawrence and that is exactly why I am not a trader.

          May 28, 2014 28:14 PM

          Al if I had your cash I’d be drinking fine Italian red from the time I woke up till the time I past out….the hell with charts, if I had your wealth, lol

    May 28, 2014 28:34 PM

    TOO MANY PEOPLE ARE BEARISH ON GOLD
    That has got to be a contrary indicator.

      May 28, 2014 28:52 PM

      According to Gary we are at or very close to a bottom in gold. Let’s see!

        May 28, 2014 28:41 PM

        He is so wrong I hardly know where to begin. I wish he had never said such a thing.

          NYC
          May 29, 2014 29:34 AM

          Hey Bird…agree here in lovely errr well you get it NYC…we are heading now hopefully to a true bottom, miners will tell the tale, when they blow up and force merge etc then and imho only then will we see a true botom amd all the gold hucksters and guys that have believed them all the way down finally yield and capitulate

    CFS
    May 28, 2014 28:51 PM

    As a comment on illegal immigration and amnesty.

    Appeasement/ amnesty is a stupid policy, unless it is your intent to encourage more illegals.

    I have been interested in a couple of enclaves that Spain has on the north coast of Africa.

    Europe, historically has not had a policy of amnesty for illegals, but one of arrest and repatriation. Spain recently has decided repatriation is too expensive. This is a problem for all the EU because once inside the EU, it is fairly easy to go anywhere within the EU.

    So what happened today in North Africa?Despite a border fence 6 metres high (almost 20 feet) with barbed wire, about 2,000 sub-Saharan africans stormed the fence and about 500 succeeded in getting into the enclave of Melilla, a Spanish territory.
    If Spain holds true to policy, Europe just gained 500 immigrants; look out France or England, because that’s where most are headed, I bet. (Incidentally France just today tightened up on camps near Calais, where lots of illegals camp-out, waiting for a chance to sneak onto or into trucks going to England.)

      May 28, 2014 28:22 PM

      They do handle that situation a bit differently that us Americans!

    May 28, 2014 28:47 PM

    Listened to Rob Kirby interview on USA Watchdog-11 years plying the derivatives trade professionally:
    Our capital markets are hallucinogenic.
    They are being run by madmen.
    I’m being realistic.
    Gold and silver is a life insurance policy and on a life insurance policy your beneficiaries do not collect until you die.
    It isn’t going to come into it’s own until this current system breaks.
    That’s when the policy pays.
    Getting strung up or worried about the machinations of the daily grind and slaughter by officialdom on the metals prices on their crooked exchanges is really a fool’s game.
    We are going to be forced back on to a honest system that is asset backed.
    We are talking about a metals standard-whether you like it or not.
    Forget about dollars and Euros as wealth will be counted in ounces.
    The people running the current system have absolutely,absolutely-destroyed it.

    May 29, 2014 29:58 AM

    Ok boys and girls! line in the sand here. Gold and silver at critical junctions. A move down and we test 1180 at the very least. Everyone including my dog bearish on gold. Let’s see if they catch majority with there pants down.

      May 29, 2014 29:13 AM

      Physical market is revolting. I have put in an order for PHS.U (PHYS in US) for last half year at 7.47. So many times the price came close but never got there. And today the silver price is down but this pure physical ETF has not moved down for two days. The volume is a few percent of usual. It gives finger to the paper shorts and says you can sell whatever you want and I am not not following. The same happens with SBT.UN, another pure physical ETF. If physical refuse to sell off, how can paper last?

    May 29, 2014 29:00 AM

    Im looking for at the very least 198 hui gap covering… My final gap as you all know is set at 190.. Does it get there? Maybe who knows. I believe jj has it set at 150 extreme level low. As jj would say keep powder dry.

    May 29, 2014 29:46 AM

    WE WANT DOC!……….WE WANT DOC!……….WE WANT DOC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    WE WANT DOC!……….WE WANT DOC!……….WE WANT DOC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    WE WANT DOC!……….WE WANT DOC!……….WE WANT DOC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    May 29, 2014 29:40 AM

    Lol I echo that!
    Al what happened to el professor?

    May 29, 2014 29:08 AM

    I bought 240 shares of PAAS- Pan American Silver- yielding 4.15% @ $12.04/sh

    May 30, 2014 30:43 PM

    We can still get momentum on the downside even if there are plenty of bears; look at the stock market for the converse.

    Gold and silver have both broken important support levels according to Paul Coghlan of coghlancapltal.com who was looking at 19.20 on silver last week for example. It is now in the high 18s.

    Where are the bears? On the COMEX. The Chinese have been mega bullish on gold ever since it got near to the top and they have bought it all the way down. They have bought the crap out of the top of the market. It’s like they were mad keen to buy at 700-850$ in 1980. They are screwed. They are perhaps not the geniuses that they are made out to be. I wonder when they might learn that they are holding stuff at a huge loss and decide to get out.