Week ending commentary on the conventional markets and gold
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What the Government is doing is NOT working. Central banks are panicking around the globe, their theories are based on false premises, doomed to fail. Central banking officials have forgotten that government does not create wealth, its sole purpose is to facilitate the economic engine and promote the general welfare. Excessive taxation erodes living standards at precisely that time when businesses, families and individuals need assistance the most.
Remember when Reagan cut taxes the first the jobs number rose by 1 million in the first month …….5 times what QE has done.
Taxes are a millstone on the sinking economy, but we have an econo-moron for President; an islamo-leaning Marxist, bottle-fed on Engels, who appears hell-bent on destroying America.
Cut government spending and cut taxes; allow the resilient US economy to heal and grow.
Cut regulations, stop socialist meddling. How many times does it have to be proven communism does NOT work.
God is against America for embracing sodomy, pornography, abortion, evolution, false weights and measures (like the dollar) and Molech (the false god of the state).
Good grief!!
Church must be out……………I guess god has a real special place for all those sodomized by their preachers ah Wayne
Oh common, Original.
That is just silly!
Sorry Al I just instantly thought of all the innocent that had been raped by those represently the church of God….and just where those evil monsters will end up!
Evolution? Geez Wayne….are we going back there again? You know we came from monkeys I hope. We have fossils and DNA and rock sample studies and geological patterns and tectonic plates and fresh frozen Mastadons and flint tools and ice core samples and all kinds of cool stuff that pretty much prove the world is more than 6000 years old. Hell, we have Lucy who is maybe 3 million years old and our closest prehistoric ancestor.
bird………you jump from one side to the other…….
I don’t know what you mean by that Jerry. I am not exactly religious nor affiliated.
We devoted a segment of the upcoming Weekend Show to this topic.
that should be fun………
Maybe, you could get ahold of KEN HAM at the Creation Mus. in Kentucky, and have Bill Ney do battle on the Evolution subject.
Thanks Jerry,
Not really a big deal to me.
You have a segment on evolution? OK, that will be really interesting.
Wayne,
Do not forget fornication and adultery. But please explain to me what you mean by sodomy.
Armstrong has suggested a parabolic top is coming in the US equities so a bubble top can be far, far higher than any normal mined investors con see….30,000 Dow
Gary golds low “Close” in this sell off from March highs so far has been $1242.90….gold better not close below that level next week or late June will produce the next trading low just as last July and Dec created a tradeable long side position.
JJ don’t look so far ahead as it really becomes hypothetical. Your a good chart guy there is no denying but things can swing the other way in seconds. Haven’t we all seen it?
Gold/hui/xau etc has not broken down thus far. There is a reason why i told you to give gary until Tuesday. Maybe my chart can see something yours doesn’t lol. Are we not all here to make money and help one another?
Glen, the HUI has clearly broken down already. What are you talking about?
What am i talking about? Hui has strong support at 198/200! Birdman iv’e already stated if that strong support gives im diving in and buying more. But that zone is support buddy. No one can deny.
cheers
I don’t think it really about looking out to far Glenfidish as I’m watching this $1252-3 area closely….not $1000 or $2000
Its the key levels on any chart of any stock that gets the most reaction so if a close below $1242 unfolds it could be a very quick decent to the next support zone, that’s all.
I know I’m in this to make money, trading is what I do…..helping others, what just because I’m short means the charts I post don’t highlight the action regardless of one’s position.
Yes the Gold, Hui and XAU have not broken down, but they haven’t broken out either….gold is not in a bullish position knocking at $1400’s door its is a position of weakness just $10 away from another key level breakdown.
I really don’t care if gold goes straight up or down from here, I’ll react accordingly as I did shorting from $1355….that wasn’t based on opinion but a key level not holding.
When I cover and go long I will be posting the bullish action on the charts.
jj your points are well taken. Im not one of those guys saying gold to the moon! You have me mistaken. Im not even close to imagining 2000 gold lol.. People talk there arse! At the end of the day, its what you have said many times. What matters is the price of gold today! I respect you and bird and many others that have been here for a long time. Al and cory appreciate what you bring. Im just a regular young dude who has done ok for his family investing, but has a great passion for what he does. I try to help others if i can.
cheers
continued success to you young man
Thanks Glen. Best to you too.
Interesting point jj. What I am looking at now is that gold is pretty much right at the median trading price for the last 12 months going all the way back to June 2013. Basically it has been moving sideways in all that time within a band. I just don’t see this price level as either a bottom or a top right now. It is middling and indecisive. As if it awaits a new narrative to change its direction one way or another. Bears appear to be in charge as there are far more compelling reasons for metals to keep declining than to rise. I am not holding my breathe for an imminent conclusion either as this could go on for quite some time without either a breakdown or a break up.
The price @ $1252-53 that level I highlighted this week is neither bullish or bearish…..starting a short position was mid March and adding along the way as resistance has been holding back any upswing confirming a breakout higher.
Too dangerous imo to start a short position here and now unless gold next week closes below $1242….and really just a bottom spec position backing up the truck, speaking of backing up the truck what happened to Buy, Buy, Buy going into Thurs close, Gary?
Maybe you just summed it up perfectly. The metals market is neither bullish nor bearish. Kind of neutral really with just the short term traders making any headway. I mean, in the last year price has not made any headway at all and the technical picture is not suggestive of a big move in either direction. Today, it just sits slightly below the approximate midpoint of the last twelve months of activity.
We did buy yesterday.
GDXJ and SIL are now positive. That is a mark in the bullish column for Tuesday marking the cycle low. Now if GDX and both of the metals can close the day at least marginally positive that would be another positive sign.
1st resistance coming into play with SIL
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIL&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p23203419938&a=353064788&listNum=1
GDXJ resistance in play
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p15979667369&a=354212091&listNum=1
Sounds about right to me jj. Good chart.
Gary so far your cycle count and what you have said has lost nobody any money. With that being said there is a reason I told jj to give you until Tuesday to see if the cycle low is put in place and turnaround occurs. I’m seeing something more of instinct and experience from watching these markets that go with my investing. I believe gary a big breakout is coming very soon to the upside. The charts as jj says or bird can be read in different ways. I’m reading a big move very very soon.
Glenfidish, what I find interesting and I have pointed out several times Gary nailed the topping action mid March off $1392….I waited for confirmation of the breakdown.
I don’t understand wht Gary hasn’t been short gold, silver and the miners covering on Thurs when he went long….if he actually believes his own opinion-cycle work why not make money both sides of the action, odd isn’t it?
Bird, can I tell you what I’m seeing with gold as you see it sideways? Distribution :).
Hope that helps.
Glen, the price of gold is pretty much trend-less when viewed in perspective over the course of the past year. It has not defined its direction one way or another. It very much reminds me of the action in the dollar that has similarly gone up and down in a band for several years now. That should be telling us something.
Yes Bird but smart money is buying this low in gold. Smart money as i classify as wealthy or rich does not want to be seen buying metals at these low ridiculous prices. Smart money as well does not like the truth being told. Ive seen classic distribution many times and this is a classic parabolic top for dow and s&p happening just as it did for gold in 2011!
jj please maybe gary does make money shorting but to each there own. Why do we all have to see shorting as=evil, and going long=saviour!. Lets just respect one anothers trades and help eachother with our knowledge.
JJ if you have found a way to short and make money that’s awesome! Im sure have also found a great way to ride a bull and also make money 🙂
gotta go! Have a great weekend to all! Gary, Doc, al, cory, jj, bird, heavy,pg, manabout, cfs and others…. May we all prosper.
One thing I want to say to Al and cory, together this forum is much more powerful and wise when sharing there knowledge. We can all make money, preserve wealth and be happy people when together.
cheers
Have not been around a site like this one since 2008.
Many thanks for the kind words Glenfinish
Bird! Thats why i take the other side of the trade. Im a contrarian when it comes to these things. So far its has been down and out. Kind of like a tko from mike tyson for gold bugs. No one really left standing but a few!
From a fundamentalist point of view, it is possible that Armstrong may be correct.
First, as long as money injection persists into the economy persists it is improbable to see a stock market decline.
Second, not withstanding claims of deflation, the money injection is inflationary, and should lead to higher prices and profits, tending to produce a higher stockmarket.
(Stocks went up in the Wiemar period)
I think what the average investor can’t relate to CFS is what BIG money does, I mean really big money…those with 10’s of millions be it France, England, Russia, US
I had clients with their wives cq’ing accounts holding $2-7 mill cash positions. A NY banker friend of mine got each morning a spread sheet with names of clients that had min $5mill sitting idle in cash, his job was to convince them to put that money to work….the biggest resistance was , I don’t need it to be exposed!!!
Big money needs big investment LIQUIDITY to move into…..and that down the road will be a major driver for gold as they won’t be able to fill their needs liquidity wise….tennis ball thru garden hose example.
The fine art auctions are seeing top $$ paid as real big money looks to get there cash out of banks into anything the feds can’t steal.
Thanks for allowing me to rant, Big Al. (Even if it just evaporates into the ether.)
Great idea CFS big Al should have two sites, one for those who are looking to make money following the advice of his guests and another for those that want to rant about how terrible the world is….call it the Doom and Gloom soap box site
Great idea!
A pity, jj, you don’t see a correlation between political activity and wealth destruction/creation. Take your blinders (I forget the American word) off
The adjective that comes before blinders?
CFS, I’m not really the complete moron that I’m sure you and your cronies think I am.
Without a doubt what you post is in fact unfolding for the negative, there are so many in this world being effected by bad government and its going to get a lot worse.
But imo its not effecting the pm’s metals sector in anyway….one day for sure it will but today, no.
As long as the Dow and S&P 500 continue to rise those with the means to be in the market could careless about what you rant on about, regardless of it being truthful or not.
When and from what level 30,000 Dow the bust comes and those who regard themselves above all the sheeple are effected, the 1%….when they lose money they too will turn on the governments of the world and all hell will break lose.
Till then its party in the equity markets like its 1999……
There you go again……
I have not said you’re a complete moron.
I have said we think differently. Use different approaches to creating wealth.
I use fundamental analysis for general long-term directions and price charts for timing, combined with volume.
You use momentum. How, I’m not too sure, but I assume charts.
Two kinds of people play financial music chair, insiders and sheeple. The difference is that insiders can exit the night before the collapse. Sheeple cannot.
If economy is in a goldilocks state, why the governments around the world are keeping historic level of stimulus going 6 years after the supposed recovery. Someone is kidding me. This reminds me of my earlier years under Mao’s China, every year was a great year and you saw poverty everywhere. If anything went wrong, it was because of weather, USSR, US, etc. It is Deja Vu all over again for me.
Should we still say “look at what they do, not what they say”?
At this point, I think the FED is actually HOPING for a black swan.
The reason is because the FED knows they have created a bubble that dwarfs the one from 2008. It will pop, and if it were to pop without any black swan, then the FED will get the blame.
Black swan = no blame for FED.
Sounds perfect for a White Flag event Sooze, lets hope not!!
I hope not, too.
The VIX is completely detached from reality.
So many things could turn bad fast:
Ukraine escalation,
China/Vietnam escalation,
Trouble in Syria with US embassy staff still in place,
Terrorist attack to ‘celebrate’ release of the Taliban 5.
China is #1 on my watch list, Copper looks real bad as copper/loans look in trouble.
Imo I think the PBOC is in the copper market defending the key $3.00 level….as massive long positions are leveraged in copper with loans attached….yikes!!
What happens if gold loans turn sour in China?
Remember when Lehman Brothers had to liquidate, the feds had no idea the leveraged positions they held and more importantly who their counter parties were.
It sometimes just takes one over leveraged player to bring down the house of cards.
Cheeez I’m sounding like CFS…..time for some sunshine
Well that is a good point jj. When large institutions or banks or business discover a big disconnect between their collateral and the debts they back then we have a major problem on our hands. That is the risk that inflated assets bring to the market. It is because assets (collateral) can abruptly deflate that the various sectors are at risk of sudden default. That is what is coming of course. And the higher the assets rise the bigger the fall as all is connected.
I heard that people was stock piling copper for gains a few years back, even some peasants have a few tons of copper in their back yard. I never heard about gold loans. Almost all the gold is in Jewelry. I went to the central store CaiBai for gold last year in Beijing, the jewelry desk was packed so I could not get to the front. The bullion sector was quiet. Selling family treasure is considered a shame in Chinese culture. Beside, government tends to soak up the excess gold. All the gold mined in China is bought by the government which is a law I believe. China does tend to stockpile and then stop buying some material like iron ore since the price does not move in China’s favor due to a couple of huge mine monopolized the area. China needs a lot of copper and iron. However, gold is more for financial stability so the condition is different.
Lawrence you’ll want to read this regarding gold loans in China
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/15/china-gold-financing-idUSL3N0N70XE20140415
I read this article before and don’t see the proof. Even it is true, 1000 tons, which worth 40 $billion, is small compared to the savings in $trillions and the foreign reserves of the country which is 4 $trillion. Gold is financial asset so it should be used for this purpose. Copper is industrial metal, stock piling is against the country’s desire to lower the price of export. As I know of, except for some high end jewelry and some coins, Chinese government does not allow gold and silver to leave the country. Smugglers face execution. I will keep it in the back of my mind but it does not impact my gold investment. In contrary, this shows that gold is coming back as money. Knowing the country’s gold history and the pain which the government suffered due to the lack of gold, I cannot believe that the government will allow the gold to escape the border. The fact that the Chinese government swallows 420 tons a year domestic production at over $2000/once, this 1000 tons is a good deal for them. This is just my personal opinion.
I have an article of CCP’s gold history. I may translate it later.
Great comments, as always, Lawrence.
Don’t know what it is that brings out such emotion as gold does.
Lawrence the point is that there are loans outstanding that have gold as a collateral….it could be wheat, iron, copper, nat gas etc…if the loan needs to be called there is an effect…that’s the point.
cheers!
I can see your point and understand what you mean. What I don’t understand is it should not really matter. This is same as if the 1000 tons of gold is $40 billion, I don’t see anyone saying US dollar is in danger since there is $40 billion collateral in China. If there is fraud, one side completely default. Gold is not impact either way. The creditor gets screwed or some may have to buy gold so price may go higher. If one party has the gold and the other party takes hold of it in case of default, it may sell it to exchange for RMB. The gold will still be in China. Based on the activity in China, the default rate will not be too high anyway. For copper it is different, the country may ban copper as collateral.
jj, not sure what you mean by emotion. I don’t think I showed any emotions about gold except the fact. Actually there was sad story about gold in Chinese recent history. National Party confiscated gold in 1947 and fled to taiwan in 1949. The new government had only 2 tons of gold. I saw a movie telling story about several communist party members sacrificed their lives to steal 1 KM gold from the National Party, not sure it is true or not. In 1950s, China had to borrow from Russian to fight Korean war. At the end of 10 year term, China had to pay back the loan with only thing Russian want – food. This resulted in millions of people died of starvation. If China had 1000 tons of gold, it would not be a problem.
emotion probably wrong example Lawrence, for whatever reason imo I don’t think any other commodity or currency used as an example to sell can get the emotions of those who buy gold as the be all investment so emotional….we would anyone sell gold….if a loans collateral is gold and its called unless the lender desires the physical product it will be sold for cash. Is every copper based loan going to held as physical or will it be sold…why would gold be any different?
And lets face it unless you and I are calling in the loan we have no idea what the transaction will produce reaction wise, do we…..we can only guess the terms.
What happens if the dollar drops suddenly?
FED would have to stop printing.
What would that do to the markets?
FED would have to resume printing.
All bad.
Short of a derivatives collapse, volume precludes a sudden dollar drop, I believe.
Don’t forget to screen…….at least 30 spf.
Don’t have to look to far to find……….WHIPPIN BOY
He sleeps, eats and drinks here 24/7.
Its a comforting thought to think there is recommended trading
advise here at any given moment 24/7.
The generosity is so overwhelming I could use those
meds with a triple dose. Of hell, just give me the whole
bottle. The pain is more than I can bare just thinking about
the kindness.
Marty A. must be real proud. He’s got minions for all his incorrect calls.
Trader Dan joins the fun as Sinclair dumped his work many moons ago.
Your irreplaceable ….WHIPPIN BOY. M.G. My Gold… your good.
HeavyShitter, lol….go back to the dumpster you crawled out of!
You add absolutely nothing to the conversation here, nothing!
Kissing my ass won’t place your opinion any higher than asking a 2X4 how to invest/trade.
Your meds wore off already????
Why …whatever do you mean.
I’m starring right at you in the dumpster.
Phew…you stink….go find a shower and take a much needed break.
After a good shower… that foot you keep sticking in your mouth will taste
better too.
I like your new name too…you thought of it. You did help bring it to pass.
JJ THE CLOWN. …Its rings so well that I need another bottle of meds.
Lets see you do some tricks….make me fall off my chair some more.
WHIPPIN BOYS always make me laugh. Puttin ya down for 5 stars too.
AND 2 THUMBS UP.. I’m sure you know how to throw out that middle
finger. 100 times a day maybe conservatively. Can you say…WTF….again.
WELL CAN YOU !!!!!!!!!!!! eveyone just loves a clown.
Your name wasn’t even on my post too.
YOU SHOWED AND DECLARED TO BE THE…
REAL WHIPPIN BOY
Clowns are funny. I love the entertainment.
With respect to others here HeavyShitter I’m not going to read or reply to your posts as they offer no value at all, in any measure at all, sad!
Thanks for the entertainment and stunts.
I envy you for being so talented.
Now a days talent like that is very rare.
You need to move on and bring others the same joy I had.
Classic clown material and definitely to be envied.
I’d recommend Al and Cory talk to Dan Norcini. He is a real trader who has been bang on with Gold throughout the entire bear. Mr. Savage doesn’t provide analysis but mere guessing. He mentions these cycles that he basically concocted out of thin air. Its not in any books and no professional analyst describes the same cycles. Yesterday he said “its too risky to do anything but day trade the market.” That is an incredibly dangerous and ignorant comment. The best traders make few trades and can read the market without gambling like Mr. Savage does. Moreover, he says Gold will go up but if not then its manipulation. LOL…how does anyone take this guy seriously. Remember, he ratted on manipulation and those guys until 2013 when he lost his ass then started using it as an excuse.
I will admit that the manipulation excuse bothers me as well, Guest12345. It just does not satisfy because that reasoning can be used as a crutch for every failed trade. It just smacks of laziness in my opinion.
I am truly more and more amazed with each and every day that the equity markets keep on rising. At this rate the DOW will be up thousands more points by the end of the year.
Madness.
Look at the Weekly Dow chart Bob, M.A. suggested back in Jan if a “close” below 15700 unfolded lower levels would be in play, it spiked down to 15340 but closed right on his target and never looked back.
The top resistance rail all the way back to 2000 and across the 2007 top was surpassed closing above 1640….that’s a breakout of 14 years in the making, wow!!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p92312391110&a=330059332&listNum=1
closing above 16,400 (correction)
Yep, stay long!
What about that guy we all know who said that Nasdaq 4000 would be the trigger to a market crash. Name no names. We will see.
Miners are doing well again today.
Yes, GDX is down only 22 percent since March. Yaaay! It is going gangbusters! Do you people even read the same charts as I do?
I meant since yesterday.
The problem with trying to look the smartarse is that when you look silly you often just look like a…
🙂
I love British humor, none better!
Me too Original
Of course I am amused. I am also amazed how you guys find a ray of sunshine in every little pop.
Birdman you are pathetic. Bob was just pointing out that miners are performing well today. I am sure he knows that GDX is down since March, like all of us. Jesus, go out and get some sun and snatch instead wasting your life on this site. Or are you scared of life?
Snatch?
He dates himself. World War II lingo…..like we all know.
Bob UK can speak for himself, Bob. Maybe you need another trip because you guys brains are getting scrambled on gold. It is getting brutalized and so are the stocks yet you all get hot and bothered and oh-so enthusiastic about every little pipsqueak movement as if the larger trend just changed. This is still a bear market for God’s sake.
The bugs have riden this bear all the way down…why ?
Why didn’t they take profits ?
They listen to gold prophet’s with an ulterior motive.
theres a time to buy & a time to sell.
Gold is going dosn…I look forward to buying at a lower price.
Cheers.
Cheers!
Jim Willie for President 2016 !! lol
critical mass critical mass
Good grief. That will really be the end of the road.
Precious metals are MAD AS HELL and they’re not going to TAKE IT ANY LONGER !