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Ah, the Power of Mean Reversion

Big Al
June 23, 2014

By Frank Holmes
CEO and Chief Investment Officer
U.S. Global Investors

The chatter this week has been gold. The precious metal flew up $45 an ounce on Thursday, surprising investors, the media and markets alike.

Gold-Is-Still-Looking-Good

If we look back just six months ago, gold was sitting at record lows, signaling that it was in extremely oversold territory. This was the time that many investors let fear take over and dismissed the fundamental reasons for owning gold: as a portfolio diversifier and store of value.

With the price spike this week, however, some of the perpetual gold naysayers suggested the metal had shifted to overbought status. Spot gold is up nearly 3 percent for the week, while gold stocks are up around 7 percent. So is gold overbought?

 

Some see gloom and doom. We see the bounce we said was coming. Based on our historical observations and the math of the markets, gold is not overbought, in our opinion, but is simply reverting to its mean. This mean reversion has shown that eventually, both gold stocks and gold bullion will move back to their historical averages.

 

Right now, as you can see from the chart below, gold stocks have seen a reversal to the long-term mean, but we are still waiting for gold bullion to do so as shown in the second chart.

Total-Foreign-Direct-Investment-Into-Colombian-Commodity-Sectors
click to enlarge

 

Total-Foreign-Direct-Investment-Into-Colombian-Commodity-Sectors
click to enlarge

Similarly, for gold bullion to reach overbought territory it would need another 20 percent move, and for gold stocks to be overbought they would need another 30 percent move.

 

There is always an emotional bias against gold, whether it is soaring high or dipping low, and that is why it’s important to manage these emotions when positioning a portfolio. At U.S. Global Investors we look objectively at the action of both gold stocks and gold bullion by monitoring these long-term data points and paying attention to buy and sell signals based on the trend of mean reversion.

 

Additionally, I remind investors that moderation is key when it comes to gold. Your exposure should be 5 percent to gold stocks, 5 percent to gold bullion, while rebalancing annually.

Another reason that gold is moving is it’s beginning its seasonal cycle, driven by cultural gold buying. The demand of gold reflected over the next several months and characterized by the purchase of the metal for cultural celebrations and religious holidays, I refer to as the Love Trade.

 

If you look at the chart below, you will see that July marks the beginning of the Love Trade with the celebration of Ramadan.

Total-Foreign-Direct-Investment-Into-Colombian-Commodity-Sectors
click to enlarge

The Indian Festival of Lights comes after, followed by wedding season and, of course, Christmas.

 

This seasonal pattern is one of the most powerful drivers for gold demand. Monitoring this pattern, while remaining aware of other fundamentals to gold, such as mean reversion and a prudent 10-percent portfolio weighting (5 percent in gold stocks and 5 percent in gold bullion, while rebalancing annually), are imperative to understand when investing in gold. These trends allow us to manage short-term swings, small or large, that usually cause more concern than they are truly worth in the long term.

If you’re curious to learn more about the trends in resources, I will be speaking July 22-25, at the Sprott Vancouver Natural Resource Symposium. You’ll be able to take a front row seat to learn why experts in the field believe next year will be one of the most opportune times in history to invest in natural resources.

Discussion
3 Comments
    Jun 23, 2014 23:44 PM

    Socialism is great if you can find the people who will pay for it, just start cutting off peoples services because they can’t afford the bill and let them phone the President to pay for their shortcomings.

      Jun 23, 2014 23:54 PM

      Or you have a national press to enforce the socialism with fascism of the means of communication. Propaganda only works if it is the sole means of communication.