Tuesday with Gary
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WELL…….it went from $2BILLION TO $3.8 BILL …..JUST DOUBLED……I told AL, that Obama was getting some money for the party………Now, he is getting his going away party money in there as well,,, before the collapse, and the public figures out they have been ripped by this moron PRES…….illegal Presidente’……..
THERE IS DEFINATELY A TIE TO THE COLUMBIAN AND CLINTONS AND OBAMA..this is a sham………
WAKE UP SHEEPLE………………….THE COUNTRY IS GOING …..BYE, BYE…….
The sheeple will wake up after the collapse. They are going to pay dearly for their complacency.
I know…..it is just sad…………
I agree. I just hope that when they have a collective chimp out they target the real villains.
Possibly, but not yet close to being in the minds of anyone other than people like us.
OH……….Thanks Chris……..
this is not off topic…………this is one of the reasons…….gold is going higher…..just one more piece of the puzzle
HERE IS AN OFF TOPIC……………ROLLS ROYCE SALES UP 33%
HH….have you picked out your color yet…!!!
Is there 84-month financing for those? My GM truck tried to kill me last night. I could sure use some new wheels.
What color is yours Jerry.
Maybe if your happy with it, I’ll do the same.
Theres a Rolls Royce dealer here in Newport Beach CA
The Phantom model …gorgeous only $2700 mo. on lease.
For good tip they will throw in a blonde bomb shell for a few days. lol
I think Andrew is out lookin a Ferrari’s lately. Seems like a Ferrari guy.
IF you need 84 month financing…………..that would truly qualify FOR A TEN POUND PAYMENT BOOK…………………..
HH……….no financing,,,,,cash only…….CASH IN A BRIEF CASE…….,and ask for a hefty discount………
The color will not be BLACK………I am thinking, something bright……
Wife said it had to have white interior, for the Florida heat.
I’ll ask my homie Obama if I can slap it on the ol’ EBT card.
No surprise there Jerry
Coin collectors usually always pay cash.
The car dealers can have their rust and bolts
I’LL TAKE LAND….won’t have the blonde or the car but I’m standing
on solid ground……literally. ..
I do not mind the initial payment,,,,,but, maintaining the beast………just add another $2700 per month……….
Jerry, I talked to a gentleman the other day
who walked in and pay cash for his Ferrari.
Told me he got a good discount.
BTW….I agree with your wife…..white on white is my choice.
NEVER OWN ANOTHER BLACK CAR…never
Jerry….white with saddle interior.
White interior is another nightmare
HH……….I LIKE DIRT also,,,,,,,,,,use to be in the real estate business, even owed some offices with a lot of worthless agents……Fresh out of college, worked for the biggest developer in the state., learned a lot about politics…..
Jerrry,
makes SENSE
White with saddle ……great combo………
I believe it…..Jerry
Your an extremely sharp guy. I bought and sold many properties.
Land I like because its a wonderful investment. Unlike renting out property
to have anything touched by someone bothers me. I like everything in flawless
perfect condition. If it doesn’t look like brand new I want nothing to do with it.
Including vehicles or anything for that matter.
You have certainly heard our hard luck story about renters!
BIG AL…not a golfer because of the fees and just frugal habits.
From the time I was a child all I did was work and save.
No different today. I watch every nickel. I invest and save.
I don’t know, I’m on a mission I guess. If I do spend for luxury
I do it so all my money comes back with a profit. Like luxury
homes but that market is full of hot air. No way right now.
Like someone said………”dirt , they don’t make anymore of it”….Will Rogers?
No HH I’m an Aston Martin sort of guy. Something to do with my manhood…..
Besides it’s frightfully British Wot! In fact the only bit that’s British about Astons is the dashboard I believe – my son helps design them!
Andy……………got any spare parts……………I am looking for some hub caps…..
TEST
Sorry guys my posts are not showin up.
Lots of typin for nothin
Have a great day….its a no bueno. ….ha
Not sure why “my posts are not showin up.” This one and all of the others are here.
Sorry Jerry but I can ask my son…..?!!
I would very definitely agree Jerry. Long term that is!
You a golfer by any chance Heavy?
I do like White ……………
HH.. I agree,..you can not have white interior being in the dirt business…..just hard to keep the shoes clean…….walking in the dirt………, But, I have to kids that like clean cars……so, I will give them a tooth brush and a job, maybe I can write it off my taxes.
As long as they have business licenses Jerry!
Yep Chris, but when you do it you are breaking the law!
Big Al, the only thing US politicians are good at is acting. They should all get Oscars for their performance. Remember the debt ceiling debacle? Man, they acted as if the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse were on their way.
Actually in a very real sense they were on their way!
And theft. They are also good at stealing.
DATES OF DECLINE S&P % GOLD % GOLD STOCK %
Jul 15, 1975 – Sep 16, 1975 -14.1% -10.8% -26.1%
Sep 21, 1976 – Mar 6, 1978 -19.4% 53.8% 31.3%
Sep 12, 1978 – Nov 14, 1978 -13.6% 1.4% -10.1%
Oct 5, 1979 – Nov 7, 1979 -10.2% 2.6% -10.6%
Feb 13, 1980 – Mar 27, 1980 -17.1% -30.4% -27.6%
Nov 28, 1980 – Aug 12, 1982 -27.1% -46.0% -65.2%
Oct 10, 1983 – Jul 24, 1984 -14.4% -15.6% -17.6%
Aug 25, 1987 – Dec 4, 1987 -33.5% 6.2% -21.3%
Jul 16, 1990 – Oct 11, 1990 -19.9% 6.8% -17.3%
Jul 17, 1998 – Aug 31, 1998 -19.3% -5.0% -32.9%
Jul 16, 1999 – Oct 15, 1999 -12.1% 23.5% 38.7%
Mar 27, 2000 – Oct 9, 2002 -49.0% 12.4% 67.7%
Nov 27, 2002 – Mar 11, 2003 -14.7% 9.7% 0.6%
Oct 9, 2007 – Mar 9, 2009 -56.8% 25.5% -30.8%
Apr 23, 2010 – Jul 2, 2010 -16.0% 5.4% 2.4%
May 10, 2011 – Oct 3, 2011 -19.0% 9.4% -3.9%*Barron’s Gold Mining Index used through 1990; HUI 1998 to present
ABOVE FROM CASEY’S METAL TEAM
just as a reminder, Gary and his trading service is a trading service–if you are buy and hold you might want to sell covered calls on a portion of your miners portfolio. I sold calls and bout some otm puts in case things get out of hand.
Good advice ,Gary.
Many thanks.
“Making Investment Decisions Based on Fundamentals Is No Longer a Viable Philosophy”
Yet another in a long stream of relatively esteemed hedge fund managers has decided enough-is-enough and is shuttering his firm. The reason? Same as the rest… As the WSJ reports, Steve Eisman, who emerged as one of the stars of the financial crisis with a winning bet against mortgages, has wound up his fund because he believes that “making investment decisions by looking solely at the fundamentals of individual companies is no longer a viable investment philosophy.”
Instead, Emrys echoed what many stockpickers have said in recent years about larger factors affecting their ability to invest as they had historically. “While individual company analysis will always be important,” it said, “the health, or the change in the health, of the financial system is the starting point of all analysis.”
No surprises here, as the HFT boyz are running the show—and supply/demand fundamentals no longer matter in any market.
I think it was Ann Bernhart that mentioned about 3 years ago the market is just intended to take participants cash now, logical as we all know the government will do anything like charge 10% wealth taxes bail ins bail outs etc etc so understanding taking money from people being the purpose of markets shouldnt be too hard for any informed person with an iq greater than a gerbil, as hey say.
I think I might have mentioned a time or 2 that these markets and the mining industy is crooked from top to bottom, participating might just be perpetuating the criminality actually.
Eventually tho, enough people should get out that even when a share goes up there wont be enough in the system to allow it to go up much.
Risk reward will get way out of “wack”.
Might cause people to look at physical gold more tho.
Bird, if you happen to read this, thinking about your point that gold mining is unneccassary and actually harmful, your right, don’t know if there is any point opposing or even not investing in it tho, we being a capitalist society will continue to put profit ahead of anything else as I see it.
The market itself could shut down tho, we have known that as one of our risks for some time.
I wonder if that could change peoples thinking about cost risk and profit?
Probly not, greed is an excellent motivater. lol
bb…….nice post…………………….j……………
It just so happens I did drop in to read a few comments, bb. One thing about ending gold mining is that price would finally be dictated based on existing supply alone. In other words it would probably rocket upwards in value while totally disconnecting from the usual metric of the dollar and money supply. Right now there is a balance between dollars and gold but if that relationship was broken because of supply and demand for metals at a time when certain kinds of mining had ceased it might suggest that the usual dollar/gold link would no longer apply. Incidentally I do not think a ban on some types of mining is such a far reach. A great number of agreements have been made in the past amongst nations on a wide variety of issues that are deemed inappropriate based on environmental concerns or war making as an example. Resource extraction is one area that has never been looked at in the past but I think that could change. Let me give you some examples of what I am talking about. Whale hunts have been almost entirely banned across the globe and with the agreement of most countries as a result of past rates of kills that drove species to near extinction. Another example of cooperation amongst countries is a ban on certain types of weapons. Nuclear bombs, landmines and hollow points have all been dealt with at high levels. Then there is fisheries like the Cod off Canada and the Tuna in the Pacific and the Anchovie fisheries. Agreements can be made on any subject for any reason that is appropriate. A multitude of conventions outlaw or attempt to limit uses of industrial activity on lands or seas such as the Arctic and antarctic, of the destruction of rainforests, of deliberate spills of contaminants or oil into public bodies of water and oceans. on issues of health safety and disease outbreak etcetera. There is a long list of prohibitions that have a consensus amongst both the worlds leading and minor nations. And I believe it is time to address gold mining as one of them. Mostly because it is a waste of resources to extract and it is incredibly destructive environmentally in its current form. I contend we have enough of the stuff already and there are better uses for labour and capital at a time when all resources are becoming more scarce. I don’t expect any action on an idea like this though. Not as long as gold is still seen as a marker for the meaning of currencies. But maybe it is time to break the old traditions where money is concerned. I advocate for pure digital currencies and an end to golds dominance in our monetary system altogether. It is time we outgrew this Neanderthal metal once and for all and moved on to the next level.
Bird man gold and silver are not officially money and are a witness against the dominance of fiat which is backed by debt denominated in fiat. Lay off on the metals and lay some away. Give discredit where discredit is due and that is the shabby world of un backed fiat currencies, debt and excessive government and government spending. The world needs a political, monetary and financial enema. Just make sure you are prepared to survive it.
Steven, I have been in and out of metals since the late 1960’s so I am no spring chicken to the business. The story has never really changed in all that time. The world always needs an enema. I am simply saying that gold mining itself is pretty much purposeless. We dig it up and put it in vaults. That game is going to end before too long. Maybe in our lifetimes. Have you ever been to a pit? Ask yourself how smart that really is.
I have the feeling that you were probably in this business a bit before myself. Correct?
You have a point where he envirnmentalists are concerned Bird.
Forget its name pebble? in Alaska where they are not going to open the mine as its too close to salmon spawning.
I do agree with you, but I see it as a change in thinking or consciousness required.
The environmental movement might just help us get there.
The idea of a digital currency might vey well be where we are going, I still like the idea of holding it in my hand tho.
Another point Bird, Im not convinced that resources are actualy scarce, minerals oil etc.
The earth might vey well manufacture it all. meaning we just need figure out how much.
Sea life on the other hand has got to be finite.
On July 8, 2014 at 10:51 am,
Matthew says:
To those who have a problem with the copy and paste… too bad. 🙂
Somebirdy commented that I post nothing constructive, but I did nail the low with my actions in the miners:
On June 3, 2014 at 12:19 pm,
Matthew says:
Doc called for $1240 gold quite awhile ago and, so far, is dead-on. I like the action and bought seven juniors this week along with some GDXJ calls. Gold has very little potential downside here in my opinion and the miners look better.
Find June 3rd on this chart (which some may remember since it was posted around that time):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p28465236826&a=353328121
Meanwhile, jj was looking for a noose to poke his head through:
On June 5, 2014 at 8:41 am,
original jj says:
I was hoping for a pop in the HUI towards 211 or GDX 23.00 before adding to my short the miners position, but their limp!
(Note: If jj got short GDX at $23 as he intended, the market has not given him a single chance to get out without a loss.)
Matthew you know you’re the MAN!!
Well, ok, sometimes… 😉
Sometimes a man?….I kind of figured.
Forgot my happy face. This is supposed to be fun (right) 🙂
Oh good grief I thought for one glorious moment that Al had sanctioned the bird! Only joking of course.
kinda funny, I remember jj saying should gold hit X? he would add to his short, it never got there tho. In any case, Mathew, is that the first person to lose you ever see?
Enjoy mocking peoples loses? Getting support for it from others as well, what was all the talk about insults? Seems Bird was right yet again, no civility here.
You guys just don’t seem to get the point, egoes are in the way Im sure.
By chaseing jj away all you have done is lose a perspective, you have diminished yourselves and reduced the info you have to beat the markets, and by the way, methinks you protest too much.
I kinda think you guys should stop attacking people, grow up a little bit maybe.
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
My thoughts exactly bb!
huh?
Bb, because you are always very civil, it is more than a little bizarre that you like to defend guys who are disrespectful FIRST. Bird is much worse than jj, but neither can tolerate those they disagree with. People far more innocent than me have been verbally attacked by bird, and you’re fine with that??? But then again, you’re a guy that believes in both freedom and socialism for crying out loud! Logic and reason just aren’t your thing.
You gotta be kidding me with that “grow up a bit” advice. None of this crap would’ve started if these guys didn’t get personal. Bird doesn’t bother with trying to put a counterargument together; he goes straight to name-calling.
Those who think that such antics should just be ignored are not wrong; but I am also not wrong if I disagree with that view.
And you are absolutely correct, Matthew!
Mathew, doesn’t make any differance who started what, the result is people with different perspectives leaving.
We are here for info and jj had good info as to how to make money when gold was going down. And it will again.
In other words….. valuable, anything else is kids stuff.
You guys need to add a layer of skin, quit taken stuff so personal.
I just don’t want to see anyone else chased away for stupidity.
I certainly agree with you bb, but I want to add that civility is now very important. It just makes sense to us and I am sure everyone else here.
The “family” is much too important to get broken apart by stupid comments from people who, in some cases, are really not stupid!
Great comments bb.
Matthew,
what is your current stance right now with miners? Are you out? In? Waiting to re-enter
What target low do you have for this move or has that move ended today.
Thanks just want to know your thoughts.
I trimmed many positions and have rotated some of the short term winnings into other positions.
You just can’t bail completely out of some of the illiquid juniors I hold. I trade a lot, but am more a speculator overall. I was both a buyer and a seller today. I am more “in” than not, currently.
I still think the sector is going higher before it corrects meaningfully. If I’m right, then even a lot of bulls are going to get left (even further) behind. I am seeing big sell offers coming into some of the juniors I watch, which does get my attention, but the bids aren’t running away and few appear to be hitting the bid with any urgency.
For many reasons, I am convinced that the miners have bottomed. This market “feels” like it is about steamroll the sellers.
Here’s a chart that I posted on June 6th:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p72932754722&a=354082921
Look at the vertical dotted blue lines. I used them to tie price action to the SCTR (“scooter”) indicator at the top. Notice that with each rally from an important low, it took less time and less price rise for the SCTR to turn up. Now look at the magenta lines. Notice that the corresponding price rises resulted in little to no change in the SCTR while the last pair of vertical blue lines on the right show that a very small rise came with the SCTR turning up. This, and other considerations, added to my confidence that a low was at hand (I started buying 3-4 days earlier).
Now, focus your attention on the upper right corner and take a look at the SCTR recently compared to the brief spikes of the last two rallies. What you are seeing is the difference between bear market rallies and what is most likely a new cyclical bull market within the ongoing secular bull market.
If anyone’s interested:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:sctr
Someone please teach me about technicals!
Matthew,
Great points! Another tool/indicator that is equally as important as a few others. Thanks for sharing that. I admit I don’t use it as much but you have me changing by approach lol. I usually stick to 4/5 indicators and it has worked well in the pass. Sometimes when you look at so many things you get clouded. Not sure if that’s happened to others or you second guess yourself. It’s the same with a portfolio. Not sure where I read it but better to have 5-10 companies at the most then try and trade 50/100. Regardless I give you much credit for opening ones eyes. I will add it to the memory file.
By the way Im yet to sell my trading positions in my portfolio from June 3rd bottom. I was very very close to pulling the trigger today and getting my profits but as you said the miners where holding strong and refusing to budge. Lets see what tomorrow brings.
I agree that having 5-10 companies is probably best. I have more than that but my largest positions, by far, fall in the top 8.
Here’s a big picture simple look at USERX:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USERX&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=30&id=p88754408887&a=357645938
Looks like a bottom to me. The 8 month ma is finally curling up and the RSI has been making higher highs for a year. Notice that the 233 month moving average has mysteriously been the resistance around the neckline of that perfect head and shoulders bottom (233 is a fibonacci number).
Correction, this one has the 8 month ma:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USERX&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=30&id=p89468374909&a=357645938
Wow, it looks like GDXJ is about to put in its highest close since March. Lots of green on my screen.
Scratch that, last minute sellers had their way… for now…
I think this is what HH….was watching……..GDXJ……..
Gary,
how many days did you say from daily cycle low to the next cycle low?
I believe it was 24-28 days but could be stretched?
Average is 18-28.
FWIW we got back in with full positions about an hour ago as the miners seem to be convinced that the white knight is going to win this battle.
That would imply a slightly stretched cycle and the cycle top will come at a higher level and then move back down into the daily cycle low.
Gary, I’ve been thinking about that from the day you pulled out last week I believe. You had me regretting not taking money off the table but here iam still intact with my trading postions from june 3rd low when i purchased img.to at 3.32 and a few others. Today was a day that really had thinking hard. I almost through the towel in but i sensed this 1330/1360/1400 region needed to be hit first before the “cycle low” or take down. I agree up before down.
Question is how long have you seen a daily cycle stretch in the past? We are currently entering day 26.
Hey guys – LISTEN UP: France is ready to stage an insurrection against the dollar. Germany already pissed off with the US with Angela Merkel getting sweeter by the day with China and Russia. Maybe there’s a properly managed 4th Reich in the offing, with Frankfurt becoming the new Wall Street. Perhaps Germany will lose on penalties in tonight’s semi with Brazil. After all why not keep 200 million Brazilians sweet while you’re at it.
See Max Keiser and Stacey Herbert’s post (first 12 mins although second half is fascinating too).
http://www.maxkeiser.com/#fBWDT5tmaDLYEy7J.99
All of a sudden I’m feeling really good. Can’t think why HH and Matthew. Talk of Ferraris and Astons with my wife wearing a blonde wig and yes I’m the oldest rocker in town. Anyway enough said: Stacey Herbert for Queen of England and my cup runneth over, along with cheering on Germany.
Thanks for the tip, Andrew, I would have missed that.
that is the greatness of this site………..if , you miss one thing, someone else picks it up………..great contribution…………appreciate………..J…….looking for hub caps
Any BMW cult members out there?
I like BMWs but have only rented them. Great handling and fun to drive.
The ultimate driving machine, Matthew. Kathy drives a concourse 2003 X5 with 104K miles on it and I drive a more than concourse 2003 325 csi with 50K miles on it.
I will personally never purchase another one for myself and plan at some point in the future to purchase maybe a 2013 X5 for Kathy.
Maintenance is no problem; they drive great; and, they are pretty good on gas. The only problem is that you have to use premium.
Big al Kathy will be delighted with the x5 :)..
Hi Glenfidish,
She is absolutely delighted with her current X5. Gotta tell you man, very little difference between it and a new one. Different smell; a few more bells and whistles; and shinier paint. But with a few months it really doesn’t matter. That is what is really great about BMW’s.
BMWs Al – ‘All skirt and no knickers’ as one Beemer dealer once told me!
GREAT cars though!
Ooooooops. Germany up 5 nil at half time. They clearly want to rule the world. HH I think it’s gotta be Porsches all round at this rate.
With apologies to Gary Savage for adulterating his site with such trivia.
JUST CYCLE TREND………….”motor” cycle trends…
I am feeling pretty good to Rev, but in spite of that whenever I think about the southern border situation in my country that changes. At least for the moment.
Don´t worry, the seel off it happened with any single equity and commodtiti, Dow 30, S&P 500 and others.
The marketS start THE BIG CORRECTION….
Tomorow is the FOMC meeting, it is “sell the news, buy the fact” thing going here…
Maybe this is the summer low and the best buying time for gold bugs! Lower the better.Cheap gold means more gold! I am not worried because long term you cant lose with gold!
My thoughts exactly Mr. Winston. If we don’t win then our children will win. And, if our children don’t win than their children will win, and the beat goes on!
Sometimes the picture in the chart looks to good to be true and has one guessing themselves. The gold chart is painting a classic upside down head and shoulders formation identical to the 2008-2010 before lift off.
Somtimes we just need to take a breather look away and look at the chart one more time as it’s telling you inflation is about to hit the metals very close. Well that’s how I see it.
Off topic: If this doesn’t piss you off, I don’t know what will. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-08/white-house-dictates-38-billion-needed-stem-surge-immigrants#comments
And here I thought the government was broke. Might as well get a printing press as well to pay my bills. Everybody is doing it.