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Week ending wrap on gold and oil

July 11, 2014

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Discussion
53 Comments
    Jul 11, 2014 11:09 AM

    GDXJ is up 3%. Gary you were expecting a pullback in metal and metal stocks. Do you still expecting cycle top and decline. It’s certainly not dropping now or going down to cycle bottom for the next leg higher.

      Jul 11, 2014 11:56 PM

      It will come, I just can’t tell you when. The miners were suggesting it was ready to start yesterday, but today they’ve gained most of those losses back. Maybe gold finishes the move to 1360ish before we get the pullback. Hard to say. Calling tops is next to impossible.

        Jul 11, 2014 11:00 PM

        Gary thank you. Much appreciate it your replay.

    CFS
    Jul 11, 2014 11:11 AM

    The real unseen danger is the House of Saud. It is not clear to me that when King Abdullah dies there will not be a power struggle and during such power struggle the Kingdom is vulnerable to attack.

      LPG
      Jul 11, 2014 11:26 AM

      CFS,
      Successions plans have already been done within the family and it’s already “official” – check in the public domain on the matter.
      Best,
      LPG

        CFS
        Jul 11, 2014 11:28 AM

        That does not mean these plans will be followed. Historically, there is often turmoil at the death of a leader. I was aware of the plans, and indeed those for Abu Dhabi, which has a much younger leader. IT is just history in this region that warns us.

        Jul 11, 2014 11:36 AM

        Thanks LPG, I did think that was the case.

          CFS
          Jul 11, 2014 11:52 PM

          But do you recall how Abdullah came to power?

    CFS
    Jul 11, 2014 11:20 AM

    The middle Israeli problem escalates as rockets now come out of Lebanon into Northern Israel:
    http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/7/10/gaza-israel-war.html

      bb
      Jul 11, 2014 11:26 AM

      cfs, this morning there was an article on RT saying 1000 anti Assad fighters joined isis.
      Isreals actions could be uniting the different groups of moslems.

        CFS
        Jul 11, 2014 11:30 AM

        That is really old news. ISIS was formed by anti-Assad fighters and those fighters were armed AND funded by Obama. $500 million of your tax dollars!

          bb
          Jul 11, 2014 11:49 AM

          cfs, your missing the point, 1000 more guys from a different moslem group just allied themselves to issis.
          If you recall, isis was considered too radical for many “anti assad” and other groups.
          Now, they ally themselves, isis successes are uniting different groups of Moslems.
          Many moslems feel those Mesopotamian boarders are a good thing, Iran and the Kurds are likely to stop pretty much where they are, meaning there could be peace between them and isis,
          This could just be getting going.

            bb
            Jul 11, 2014 11:51 AM

            Also, its not “old” news, was announced yesterday.
            I went back to copy but it looks like the news has moved on.

            CFS
            Jul 11, 2014 11:54 AM

            If you had posted the URL of the RT article it would have helped.

          bb
          Jul 11, 2014 11:12 AM

          I wasn’t going o post or mention it until you mentioned the rockets from Lebonon.
          When I went back to find it the news had moved on.
          Anyway, the rockets fom Lebonon are another indication that moslems are uniting againts Isreal causing support for isis.
          Maybe not the isis group so much, but the isis leader, he has shown himself to be capable of military victories, these groups could be putting their differences aside.

      Jul 11, 2014 11:35 AM

      yes it is!

    CFS
    Jul 11, 2014 11:21 AM

    Middle East – Israeli problem, I meant to say!

      Jul 11, 2014 11:38 AM

      Strikes me as being a little “out there”!

    bb
    Jul 11, 2014 11:42 AM

    I agree with Gary, the driver of gold is primarily printing.
    We have seen many times in the last few years events that “should” have increased the gold price that didnt.
    What remains to be seen is just how right Gary is this fall, I prefer physical, but we could be seeing some pretty good gains in the shares. Might still be wise to own a few of something.
    The way I look at it the risk is a crash that causes the baby to be thrown out with the bathwater or a total shutdown of the markets, maybe mf global events.

    CFS
    Jul 11, 2014 11:03 AM

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kg9m1F8B2_c

    A little bit of truth in sick humor, but I like Andy Williams singing.

    Jul 11, 2014 11:34 AM
    Jul 11, 2014 11:57 AM

    Israel will most likely invade Gaza Saturday or Sunday morning – they have a habit of weekend invasions – so I expect gold and oil to be higher on Monday opening.

    If they do not invade this weekend it will be next weekend. All depends whether they are prepared to put up with another week of rockets raining down on them. All depends just how ready their forces are.

    I think they are being lured into a trap, and probably know it, but have no choice to invade.

    Invading Gaza will cause anti Israeli feeling to grow in Jordan which is what the nutjobs actually want as Jordan is the real and next target of the ISIS nutjobs.

    If we do get a dip in oil or gold in the next week I personally see it as a buying point as I suspect it will not be going lower because of all this.

      Jul 11, 2014 11:07 PM

      Thanks Bob UK. It is really more than just too bad that the “nutjobs” have as much power as they do.

        Jul 11, 2014 11:23 PM

        Believe it or not but I have am ex Iraqi general living a few doors away from me. Lovely guy. Washes his car daily. Nice family. Claims to have known Saddam Hussein personally. Worked for us – the Brits and Yanks – after the invasion and now lives in the UK working for the Police monitoring ‘the nutjobs’. So he claims.

        Anyhow, I had only ever waved a friendly wave at him in the past until this week when I got chatting with him. He is convinced that the Islamic fundamentalists want to destroy everyone and everything who does not believe in their barbaric brand of Islam – but we all know that. He reckons the biggest mistake the West madd was getting rid of Saddam, as evil as he was, because he was preferable to the situation we have now. He said that the Arab mindset does not understand democracy and prefers to have strongmen dictators as leaders.

        I digress.

        Forcing the Israelis to invade Gaza and kill Palestinians will cause more anti Jewish sentiment, and hence anti Western sentiment, in the Muslim World. Jordan, with a big Palestinian population, is clearly the next target of ISIS.

        I think these events will snowball and have a big affect on the metals and oil. It is all down to how Israel responds now.

        I think the reason why gold has not gone down into one of Gary’s daily cycle lows is simply the ME situation.

    Jul 11, 2014 11:59 AM

    Religion.. poisoning everything.

      Jul 11, 2014 11:08 PM

      Radical religion yes, normal religion poisoning everything? No, I don’t think so.

        Jul 11, 2014 11:33 PM

        If there was no religion, which is a human fabrication, then there would be no case for radicals, or normals.
        But then again, the radicals think they are normal, so is there such a thing as radical?

          Jul 11, 2014 11:41 PM

          People would have to think for themselves then. People believe what they believe due to circumstances of where they were born and what they were ‘fed’ as children.

          Sadly, lots of these Muslim nutjobs have a medieval mindset that has been drummed into them from an early age usually by men who have all sorts of issues themselves. Personally, I think they have lots of problems with their own sexuality that manifests itself in a hatred of Women and a hatred of free thinking.

          Islam is not going to have its Martin Luther moment is it. Nor is it going to have its ‘Life Of Brian’ moment. They are a clear and present danger to all free-thinking, peaceful, tolerant and enlightened people.

          CFS
          Jul 11, 2014 11:45 PM

          Well, either your definition of religion is strange or you are in error.

          I consider many “Greens” as radicals.
          One of my homes in Norfolk, England is among farming country.
          Livelihoods have been destroyed by Greens trampling on government-authorized GMO crop experiments.

          Peta members, tend to be extremist. Certainlt I don’t consider throwing red ink or blood on someone wearing a fur coat as normal behavior.

          And what about sports team fanatics. The odd beating of someone wearing the wrong colors probably does not count as radical behavior.

          Jul 11, 2014 11:25 PM

          My opinion on religion is that religion is not the problem. The problem lies in the people who follow said religions. It’s people who give religion a bad name.

          Jul 11, 2014 11:38 PM

          If a tree fell in a deserted forest would there be a sound?

            CFS
            Jul 11, 2014 11:53 PM

            Yes.

            Well, you asked.

    Tom
    Jul 11, 2014 11:08 PM

    Good guys….Bad guys??? no such thing in terms of countries….just winners and losers

    bb
    Jul 11, 2014 11:51 PM

    You guys are making some good points.
    Well, I might be thinking there good because I agree.
    I hope one day we give up on these religions, judeism,christian and moslem anyway. They are just way too violent.

    CFS
    Jul 11, 2014 11:33 PM

    For all you newcomers, you can look as far back in the archives of this forum as they will go. I have been consistent.
    I am not a christian; but I am not anti-christian.
    I am not a jew; but I am not anti-jew.
    I am not a muslim; but I am anti-Islam.
    Because I find the morals of Islam not compatible with civilized society.
    I find Sharia law an abomination.

    I have been criticized for my beliefs before and probably will be again, but they were not lightly taken and will not change.

    I feel sorry for future generations in the Western World, because I think the Western civilization has become so politically correct, so pro-multicultural that it will not realize the takeover of its culture until it is too late.

    I asked myself the other day a simple question:
    What is a Country?

    There is no simple answer to that question, but whatever it is, it must contain certain elements:
    It is defined by its borders,
    It is defined by its culture,
    It is defined by its language.
    The language situation is a difficult one to add, but historically no multi-lingual nation has lasted very long before breaking up. (Canada and Belgium being a marginal exceptions) I include language, because it always seem to be a cause for unity, or in the case of multiple languages a cause for unrest.
    I recognize the history of the European union in which the early founders tried to introduce Esperanto as a single language to avoid discord.

    Any way, back to what defines a country. If you accept my thoughts on this subject, then I would suggest that Obama’s motive in allowing mass immigration, is not only to produce a permanent democrat voting majority, but in fact, to destroy the US as a country.
    I come to this conclusion, because I know he is going to be out of power when he retires from the Presidency. However, if I am correct in believing that he really hates the US and all it stands for, then that motive would be more likely to drive him pushing illegal immigration, than wanting democrat voters.
    2 cents.

      Jul 11, 2014 11:37 PM

      As a child what religion were you raised in?

      Jul 11, 2014 11:04 PM

      Historian James Kunstler describes Obama matter of factly as ‘a devout Sunni’. Quite staggering if true.

      Jul 11, 2014 11:42 PM

      And as always, worth more than two cents!

    Jul 11, 2014 11:01 PM

    Some really interesting points here.
    As a Christian I consider myself in many ways to be non-orthodox. Dr Leslie Weatherhead once said ‘Hold to Christ and for the rest be wholly uncommitted’. That’s good enough for me! For I’m a firm believer in freedom of thought, and choose to sit lightly on what the creeds may or may not be saying. Nor do I care if some choose to call me a heretic. For I deplore institutional Christianity or Churchianity, which is invariably wrapped up in a blind acceptance of things, much, as I deplore the certitude of fundamentalist evangelicalism. And of course I deplore the sort of Muslims Bob speaks of although one must guard against forming stereotypes too readily. For there are many good and loving Muslims. Same should be said for those good and loving Jews when they enrich the cultures within which they live. But then again I deplore Judaism when expressing itself within the rigidities of Zionism.
    Religion ought never to be for people who refuse to think for themselves. For when it hardens into dogma that’s when it become truly repellent.

      Jul 11, 2014 11:47 PM

      God would not want us to be non thinkers!

      bb
      Jul 11, 2014 11:17 PM

      Geez Andrew, well said.
      I don’t like to think of myself as Christian but that Doc Weatherhead expresses my own views.

    CFS
    Jul 11, 2014 11:52 PM