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How Yellen’s comments and oil are moving these markets

July 15, 2014

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Discussion
12 Comments
    Jul 15, 2014 15:52 AM

    I will be curious to see how far below a daily cycle low gold could fall. I guess that would technically make it not a daily cycle low. But I just have no feel for how far below to place the stop – I have no experience with that. It would seem to me this is certainly not an exact science – what we think may be a daily cycle low may later be breached slightly. It would be irritating to place a stop too tight and thus miss out. I think I would tend to not place it too tight, but would instead place it a loss I am comfortable with, rather than trust that I would be correct on the daily cycle low.

    Thanks Gary – this is fascinating theory to try.

      Jul 15, 2014 15:23 AM

      You can’t place your stop until the daily cycle has clearly bottomed. Once it has then your stop goes right below the intraday pivot. I’ll call it when I think the cycle bottom has formed. It won’t be today and maybe not till Friday or Monday.

    LPG
    Jul 15, 2014 15:25 AM

    Gary,
    Gold actually touched 1292 intraday on the spot market – I assume post your interview.
    Do you think today marked the cycle low ? (I understand you might be able to answer this question only once the session has closed)
    Thanks & Regards,
    LPG

      Jul 15, 2014 15:24 AM

      I always wait for a swing. If gold forms a swing tomorrow then I will consider that it made the cycle low today.

        LPG
        Jul 15, 2014 15:37 AM

        Thank you Gary. Appreciated.

    BACK UP THE TRUCK……….but, be sure to close the tailgate.

    Jul 15, 2014 15:01 AM

    Excellent commentary, Gary. Thank you!

      Jul 15, 2014 15:32 AM

      Great commentary is what we have grown to expect from Gary. No doubt he is a valuable contributor to our site!

    Jul 15, 2014 15:22 PM

    Gary good job always.

    Not sure if anyone remembers but I was calling for 225 hui gap to be filled at the very least. I like the odds combined with gary’s cycle low and indicators.

    A low could well be in place by end of week or tomorrow.

    Jul 15, 2014 15:23 PM

    Gary,

    Why didn’t you short OIL if you were so sure it was entering an intermediate degree decline?

      Jul 15, 2014 15:44 PM

      I find it very difficult to make money selling short, so I don’t do it anymore. Markets go down differently than they go up. The counter trend moves are usually volatile enough that one gets knocked out of their positions and then if you don’t time the bottom perfectly you end up giving back most if not all of your gains in the first day or two of a rally.

      The only time selling short works consistently is in hindsight. In real time it’s an incredibly hard way to make money in a business that is hard enough already.

    Jul 15, 2014 15:53 PM

    Yes I agree thank you fair enough. I shorted around 104.50 and covered at 103.50 just wasn’t able to hold on for the entire decline.