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Two of The Three Musketeers discuss the gold and the markets

Big Al
July 22, 2014

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44 Comments
    Jul 22, 2014 22:13 AM

    Gold looks fine to me. Silver and the miners look better.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p74739654333&a=359707135

    Jul 22, 2014 22:32 AM

    Guess who’s coming to dinner!

    I’m back for a brief check in.

    Many of you don’t know me.

    The horses are running at Saratoga where life is much simpler than these markets!

    Hear me now…

    It’s important to NOT SPEAK (or in this case write) and JUST LISTEN.
    So that’s what I did.

    And I’ve been listening to the three musketeers and the dynamic duo for a few weeks now AND I CANNOT BEAR TO LISTEN ANYMORE.

    First I might offend some people but I mean no disrespect.
    It is nothing personal.
    On the contrary we are all part of the blogosphere family here.

    HOWEVER I DO NOT LIKE WHAT I AM HEARING AND HAVE HAD IT UP TO HERE
    (I have my hand on my throat)

    So with that said…

    The three musketeers…

    DOC

    Lately many people have been tripping over themselves saying how right Doc has been.

    WITH ALL DUE RESPECT I have to disagree.

    I believe on the big picture he has been completely wrong.

    I will give three examples.

    First over two years ago when gold was correcting I said we had seen the parabolic moves for gold and silver.

    Doc’s response was he never saw a parabolic move end that way.
    My response to him was it hadn’t ended yet.

    Gold and silver eventually crashed much much harder.
    AND WE GOT THE PARABOLIC BLOW OFF CRASH I PREDICTED AND HE DIDNT SEE COMING.

    If people took his advice they stayed in much longer than they should have been in and
    lost a lot more money.

    second just a few months ago Doc said he was very worried and didn’t like the conventional markets.

    Since then the conventional markets have hit all time highs and again if you listened to him you got out too soon and left a lot of money on the table.

    third just recently he went on record saying he really liked gold and silver.

    Now just a few weeks later he is expecting them to go down.

    What was the big move you liked then?

    It seems it is over before it even happened

    NOW BE CAREFUL BECAUSE IF YOU LISTEN TO HIM AND YOU GET OUT AND GOLD HOLDS $1300 YOU ARE OUT!

    Again with all due respect your continually theme has been “we’ll know more in two weeks”

    For over two years all we have heard is “we’ll know more in two weeks”

    I dint find this acceptable

    GARY

    Gary and his cycle theory.

    I’ve played the horses for many many years and many unsuccessful amateurs have developed one unsuccessful method or system after the next.

    For decades people have been trying to beat the races with a method, or a system.
    This goes for stocks as well.

    IT DOESNT WORK AND IT NEVER WILL.

    if race track and stock and gold investing success came in a neat little method than we would all be rich.

    IT TAKES HARD WORK, RESEARCH, PATIENCE AND GUTS!

    AND MOST OF ALL IT TAKES THE ABILITY TO SEE WHAT OTHERS CANT, TO WAIT FOR AN EDGE, AND VALUE, AND BET WITH BOTH FISTS WHEN EVERYONE ELSE IS GOING IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION!

    MOST MOST OF ALL IT TAKES COURAGE OF CONVICTION!!

    NOW YOU TALK ABOUT HOW YOU ARE FRUSTRATED.
    WHAT ARE YOU A CRY BABY?

    You have some homegrown method, like so many amateurs, that might work occasionally (like all methods do,) and when it doesn’t YOU HAVE YOUR FALL BACK POSITION ABOUT “THEY” did it again. Meaning they manipulated it again.

    it’s very nice and convenient to have a method that have spotty success when it works and an excuse when it doesn’t.

    I made my money with intense homework, guts and patience.
    I went against the crowd every time I laid MY MONEY DOWN.

    I HAVE GREAT RESPECT FOR SUCCESSFUL INVESTORS AND GREAT CONTEMPT FOR MEDDLING AMATEURS.

    RICK

    I can’t say anything about Rick other then he takes it one move at a time.

    He believes in DEFLATION. I AGREE!

    If the assets were free to go where they naturally want to go we have MASSIVE DEFLATION.

    GOLD HAD BEEN SAYING THAT LOUD AND CLEAR!

    He also said in an interview just recently where the markets will go up or down for no particular reason. Which is true.

    Which brings me into my next point…

    the dynamic duo…

    BIG AL

    AL, I HAVE ONE QUESTION FOR YOU AND ONE QUESTION ONLY…

    DO YOU STILL BELIEVE IN THE FUNDAMENTALS?

    I have been saying for how many years now the fundamentals don’t matter!

    IF WEVE LEARNED ANYTHING AT ALL THESE LAST FEW YEARS IT IS THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS THE FUNDAMENTALS!

    Just look at last week.
    On Thursday the conventional markets are crashing, on Friday they come roaring back.

    Up, down ,up, down…

    IT IS MADNESS.
    THERE ARE NO FUNDAMENTALS

    CORY

    nice job. Keep it up.
    But stop agreeing with everyone AND STOP WITH MISLEADING TITLES

    now let’s talk about some of the other members of the family, namely BIRDMAN AND MATTHEW.

    BIRDMAN. – where exactly are you in this?

    It seems one day your a bear, then your a bull, then your a bear again.

    What is your position?

    You seem to be bouncing all over the place.

    MATTHEW – you have stayed the course, you have kept the faith!

    Now we have this new shooter AVI THAT SEEMS TO HAVE COME OUT OF NOWHERE
    PATTING HIMSELF ON THE BACK FOR HOW RIGHT HE IS

    LIKE A ROGUE HITMAN HE IS THE VOICE OF DOOM AND GLOOM FOR THE GOLD MARKET. HE IS PREDICTING LOWER LOWS.

    AND THIS WASNT SHORT TERM (see Cory and his misleading titles)

    Now where are we in these markets?

    Last time I said we were in the TWILIGHT ZONE

    WE STILL ARE!

    I also said TWICE ON THIS BLOG WE HAD SEEN THE BOTTOM FOR GOLD a few months ago when it was around $1280. SO FAR THAT STATEMENT HAS BEEN CONFIRMED.

    I ALSO HAVE BEEN STATING FOR HOW MANY MONTHS NOW $1340 IS THE KEY.
    JUST LOOK AT LAST WEEK.
    WHERE DID THE RALLY STALL ONCE AGAIN. Bingo!

    Until $1340 is taken out, tested, and held, we are going nowhere.

    I DO BELIEVE $1300 may very we’ll hold.
    The take downs are becoming less and less effective and they are not lasting as long.

    I WILL GO ON RECORD AND SAY I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE $1300 hold. I AM CONFIDENT IT CAN HOLD.

    THIS GOES AGAINST DOC AND GARY.

    so there you have it…I call it as I see it.

    If I’ve managed to step on someone’s toes the wrong way too bad.

    THERE IS TOO MUCH MONEY ON THE LINE FOR ALL OF US HERE TO PLAY GAMES.

    LETS ALL STIP THE CHARADES AND TAKE A STAND!

    As HEAVY HITTER and RALPH KRAMDEN would say to TOO THE MOON!

    since it is TUESDAY THEY ARE NOT RUNNING AT SARATOGA TODAY SO I DECIDED TO KILL SOME TIME AND POST.

    but tomorrow it is back to the races…

    AND IF YOU THINK THIS STOCK MARKET AND GOLD MARKET ISNT A GIANT CASINO I HAVE A BRIDGE IN BROOKLYN TO SELL YOU!!!

      bb
      Jul 22, 2014 22:50 AM

      Good post James, I am guessing about $1300 holds as well.

      Bob M agrees with you about ta and fundimentals I think. Doesn’t he say when people want it, sell it to them and when they don’t buy it?

      Sound esay anyway.

      Jul 22, 2014 22:58 AM

      James….Welcome back……..Now where’s my complement !!!…..haha

      Jul 22, 2014 22:03 AM

      Nice honest post James. I might jump in but I am sworn off criticism. There is no coin in it.

        Jul 22, 2014 22:14 AM

        As an aside James….none of us are perfect. The value is in the collective because everyone’s thinking gets processed together and helps us all come to better conclusions. The best in the business don’t pull 100%. They might all be billionaires if they did. On the other hand, sometimes compete novices come up with the best ideas. Their minds are not cluttered yet is my theory. Other than 1300, do you have a call on the market?

          Jul 22, 2014 22:34 PM

          I think we are better off listening to everyone and then making our own decisions. Sometime the best ideas can come from an idea one things is bad then modifying it to one’s own beliefs.

            Jul 22, 2014 22:08 PM

            Complete agreement Cory. It is by listening to what others are saying that often helps me most to refine my ideas and keep me clear of making mistakes that might otherwise have happened in isolation.

      Jul 22, 2014 22:14 AM

      Hand on your throat? Are you Dr. Strangelove?

      Jul 22, 2014 22:42 AM

      Matt,
      Need I remind you that we just made a 17% gain on our metal portfolio. If that’s a broken system I’ll take it every day of the year.

        Jul 22, 2014 22:43 AM

        Sorry that response was for James.

          Jul 22, 2014 22:47 AM

          And to be clear I’m not predicting a move to 1280. That is Doc’s call. I’m simply saying that if gold goes below 1292 it would form a failed and left translated cycle, and those are usually bad news.

          Based on my cycles theory gold has to hold above 1292. If it doesn’t then I would not be trying to catch a bottom again until I see higher highs.

        Jul 22, 2014 22:11 PM

        I had a nice fat 27% gain in a few weeks in tech with a large position but failed to cash out and cashed out with about 12% gain. Jumped into Gopro last week and a nice gain already. Far easier than predicting the direction of gold prices.

      Jul 22, 2014 22:50 AM

      James the lesser,
      Wow….what a novel. Last sentence though you ARE MISSING A CRITICAL DIFFERENCE….THE GOLD/SILVER MARKET INVOLVE TANGIBLE HARD ASSETS – THEY ARE WHAT THEY ARE…the stock market is paper pushing potpourri of companies that are not based on economic reality (FED) and therefore to be avoided at all costs…sure making money is fine and dandy…losing your “capital” in one horrific plunge is not!

      Jul 22, 2014 22:15 PM

      James,
      I like and agree with a lot of what you say. One take I have is that there is no easy way I can figure out to “grade” Doc, Gary and Rick on what they say in these interviews. It is difficult to even remember what they say! Perhaps it is not the purpose of these forums to get their predictions and then assess. I still believe that “no one really knows”, and that if one predicts he/she will be wrong as often as right. I guess, just control the losses when wrong, and ride it when right. I have given up thinking of the PM as a place to make gains – if gains come then it is a bonus. I just want to hold my coin for future purchasing power.

      Jul 22, 2014 22:32 PM

      Nice well thought out comment James… I completely agree haha jk

      When disagreeing with people on this site you presented your arguments in a fair and level headed manner. You brought to the table your comments and facts to back them up.

      I personally hope you are right that 1300 holds and that 1280 was the bottom for gold. As for Doc, Gary, and Rick I think they are all very valuable to this site. Not everyone will be right all 100% of the time but they are sticking their neck out there each and every day. We greatly appreciate that.

      The fact of the matter is when investing we cannot and should not blame anyone else. Make up your own decisions and as you mentioned investing successfully takes ” intense homework, guts and patience”.
      Best of luck to everyone in their investments.

    bb
    Jul 22, 2014 22:39 AM

    I got out of gold in the 80s due to manipulation, I didn’t know it was then but every time I had gold figured to increase in price someone would sell a ton of it, (pardon the pun).

    I eventualy figured “whats the point?”

      Jul 22, 2014 22:37 PM

      I would argue that no market is free from manipulation. I think manipulation has devastating short term impacts on the markets but if we can hold long enough in investments we believe in then you can still do very well in even the most manipulated of markets.

    Jul 22, 2014 22:06 AM

    CEM.v is up 28.5% today. I commented here last August that I liked it. It was .05 at the time. Today it is .18 and looks like it’s going higher. I still have two-thirds of my original position. There’s plenty of exploration upside (“bluesky”) and their JV partner is doing all the spending. Gotta love it.

      Jul 22, 2014 22:10 PM

      Make that 35.7% to close the day.

    Jul 22, 2014 22:30 AM

    @James (the lesser)

    Where do you think platinum is going in the near future? It topped at 1480 a few months back. Moved lower then it some higher highs recently to 1514 now it is staying range bound at 1480-1490

    Jul 22, 2014 22:30 AM

    or anybody else who would like to comment?

    Jul 22, 2014 22:43 PM

    Market pulled back in early April as people withdrew money to pay taxes. It will pull back again of similar magnitude as people withdraw money for school supplies and early holiday spending money. SPY has a daily gap right around 177.48 and another down at 166.50 or so that still needs filled. Over 90% of all gaps get filled. Market will pull back a lot….at some point. Unfortunately for current bears, the weekly and monthly charts of the S&P are in full blown bull mode with little evidence of a coming pullback. Once those monthly candles on the S&P start sticking their heads above the upper bollinger bands, thats the time to get short…At this point I’m leaning more toward a crash than a pullback….when it eventually happens. As for Gold, I think it has bottomed and I’ve thought that for a long time…but near term it is still just too choppy.

      Jul 22, 2014 22:50 PM

      Every day I wake up thinking the conventional markets will crash and every day they go higher – with one or two exceptions. It seems that nothing short of a shooting war between the West and Russia will cause these markets to go down.

        Jul 22, 2014 22:05 PM

        Something will give at some point. In the last 34 months, 5 of those were flat, 5 were red and 24 were up. It will sure be interesting to see what the catalyst is that sends this market sinking when it happens.

        Jul 22, 2014 22:58 PM

        I fell the same way. Consistantly thinking that I will wake up the markets will be down large percentages. Instead they seem to be up 0.5% regularly…

      Jul 22, 2014 22:43 PM

      No doubt the markets will crash but I feel as though the big players will be able to run them for a little longer. I will admit I have no idea how long but there is still some retail money that is not in. I’m with you on a crash rather than a pull back. The question then is can the Fed and policy makers bring the market back.

        Jul 22, 2014 22:14 PM

        If we don’t get the summer melt we may just be on track for a fall crash. I wonder how many people believe that once QE ends that markets will keep floating upwards and especially with regards to Fed comments suggesting some rate normalization in 2015? The clock is ticking.

    Jul 22, 2014 22:56 PM

    I’d also like to add: There is plenty of time for the market to recover before the Jackson Hole meeting in late August. Could be prime time for a bear raid….just saying.

    tim
    Jul 22, 2014 22:48 PM

    Good to see you again James! Like your outlook. I am a long term gold and silver”bug’ and if it goes lower good—more PMs for me! All I know is I believe in gold and that you cant lose in the long term! Thanks!

      Jul 22, 2014 22:48 PM

      Tim _ YOU ARE SPOT ON! HOWEVER, I think PHYSICAL SILVER is the most UNDERVALUED ASSET on the face of the earh….20 fiat bucks for one ounce is so COMPLETELY ABSURD…it is incredibly laughable..the market says that is what it is…GOOD…dig in..yeehaa!

    Jul 22, 2014 22:56 PM

    James the lesser. What a great post you made. I am now a fan of yours. You can base your buying on a waiting call to gold at 1280. Every gold, silver, copper stocks have a life of their own. We have a few companies running close to 52 week highs. Some not doing a thing. You have to do your own research or stay with an etf like hgu in Canada. Some OF These precious metal stocks have been consolidating nicely. i see cup and handles and inverted H&s all over. I don’t want to miss out of they do go, because these patterns don’t show up often. Anyways, let’s hope for the best. But come in of September, tax loss season and profit taking will show up again.

    Jul 22, 2014 22:47 PM

    James (the lessor)
    All I have to say is Bravo. I believe you are absolutely correct. Well done!!!!!!!

    cmc
    Jul 22, 2014 22:45 PM

    I’m definitely a novice here, but the way I see it gold has not shaken off all the gold bugs, and until that happens, the bottom is not in.

    cmc
    Jul 22, 2014 22:53 PM

    I also think that as long as the conventional markets are rising, gold will be lackluster and gold will make it’s comeback when the conventional markets finally falter.

    Jul 22, 2014 22:17 PM

    By the way Doc…..told ya crude was going down! Gotcha man! Picked it right off the top.

    Jul 23, 2014 23:02 AM

    So what about gold? Well I guess I have to answer my friend James question about where I really stand. He wrote…… “BIRDMAN, where exactly are you in this? It seems one day you are a bear, then you are a bull, then your a bear again. What is your position?

    Well James, the answer to that is that I am focused on the very short term in almost all cases. Generally I never look beyond a month but most of the time my outlook is confined to a few days or a week at the most. So my viewpoint can change fairly rapidly.

    Most others here are looking at the big picture trend and want to be long miners and gold for the coming years whereas I think the most money can be made just trading brief moves in either direction. I really have no religious affiliation with metals nor a whole lot of loyalty to the hard money cause.

    That being said, I do think that gold and silver have some tremendous moves ahead and that positioning in the sector is probably an excellent bet. What we have seen in so many other sectors of the economy is serial asset inflation and bubble blowing. Gold had its turn ahead of the pack and then deflated alongside most of the commodity sector but it will arise again as other sectors decline.

    For example, look at how far US stock markets have run up. Look at junk bonds too for a bubble that will pop with the usual tears and regret. Housing of course is inflated all over the world. Credit itself has been massively inflated as has the money supply and debts at all levels (and everywhere). Then there is corporate debt and government bonds, student loan lending and the emergent credit card expansion.

    Basically, one by one almost every sector of investment classes, lending categories and credit offering has been blown up bit by bit. So why will precious metals, miners and resources behave any differently in time? I am just saying that their turn is coming and we should not be surprised that the eventual inflation in those areas will be just as notorious as the pumping up or markets we see everywhere else.

    So big picture I am bullish metals. Shorter term I am a cynic.

      Jul 23, 2014 23:19 AM

      Anyway James, you probably have forgotten what I wrote in the past. I do not buy or collect physical precious metals. No anymore. The premiums almost always stink as much as the discounts when selling and liquidity is not nearly as good compared to online trading. Honestly you make better money sitting at your desk in front of a computer and never even having to set a foot out the door buying from strangers. Basically I just don’t buy into the myth that physical lumps of metal offer any real protection in the event of a financial event. Not anymore. Too old school for me. The world is now faced with existential threats where energy and quality land and water shortages are concerned. If you want real security you need a good farm, lots of friends and almost any kind of production. I still think chickens are better money. But cattle, pigs and orchards will do just as well. Plus you get a lifestyle as opposed to a security nightmare for the storage of stuff other people might readily steal anyway. So I give two big thumbs down to buying bullion. It is such a racket.

    Jul 23, 2014 23:37 AM

    Lots of chatter about the Euro today. Everywhere I look it is the topic and the consensus is that the Euro is about to break down. I agree. In other words the dollar is heading for a rally. As an aside to Doc….do you recall you kept saying that the dollar looked “heavy” and I kept insisting it would strengthen?. Well I do. Does that not prove my point that two people looking at the exact same charts can come to diametrically opposite conclusions? This is the problem with an over reliance on technicals. They are far from foolproof if you do not take into account policy and politics.

    Jul 23, 2014 23:49 AM

    I’m long term bullish on metals…but not yet all in.
    I’m 75% in the miners….but holding the other 25% back at the moment.
    Call me scared if you want ?
    Tell me my balls aren’t as big as yours if thats how you feel ?
    But I do still have some concerns before allocating the full mother load.

    If the conventional markets crash/correct…..then so maybe do the miners.

    Margin calls are a b!Tch….people panic…I’m happy to wait at the moment

    That said my 5% weekly accumulation of physical metals of my wage continues as per normal for now.
    Cheers.