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Are we starting to see a roll over in the conventional markets?

July 25, 2014

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Discussion
46 Comments
    Jul 25, 2014 25:32 AM

    those gold manipulators they seem to ruin everything for us.

      Jul 25, 2014 25:29 AM

      Just don’t dance to their tune.

    Jul 25, 2014 25:03 AM

    Here’s a great “cup and handle” opportunity for anyone interested (my opinion):
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=P.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p94334819629&a=360967303

    Disclosure: I own warrants.

      Jul 25, 2014 25:02 AM

      Btw, I think quality companies like P.TO are showing us that the sector is probably going higher from here.
      GDXJ cup and handle?:
      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p81897788903&a=360983323

        Jul 25, 2014 25:26 PM

        Agreed. In looking at a variety of mining charts and comparing them to the pull back that took place in March through June, the decline this time out has been much more shallow — even though the physical gold re-traced much as it had done off the March top.

        For those interested, take a look at GLD vs. gold mining indexes (like XAU, HUI and GDXJ), from the March top to the June bottom and see the correspondence. Now look at what GLD has done on the most recent decline and the obvious out-performance of the mining indexes.

        There is a clear divergence. FWIW, I think we are getting ready for another leg higher.

          Jul 25, 2014 25:16 PM

          I agree, Eric, I think we’re going higher.

            Jul 25, 2014 25:25 PM

            Mining shares…not necessarily gold. I might be agreeing with you too Eric.

        Jul 25, 2014 25:39 PM

        Matthew
        Check out the multi-decade cup and handle for silver (there are a couple charts out there on the internet-thingy, but this one will do nicely)

        http://hubertmoolman.wordpress.com/2013/04/30/silvers-bullish-cup-formation/

          Jul 25, 2014 25:18 PM

          Thanks Brian. That is one BIG pattern with great implications for the price of silver.

      Jul 25, 2014 25:58 AM

      Thanks Matthew.

    Jul 25, 2014 25:55 AM

    The dollar is coming up fast on resistance near 81.30 Gary and it looks to have broken upwards after today’s action thus far. Since early July gold has been generally in decline as the dollar rose. This is tending to support an argument I put forth some time back that Euro devaluation would result in gold going into decline.

      bb
      Jul 25, 2014 25:18 AM

      Yup Bird, you’ve been pretty accurate alright.
      Wish jj would contribute more too, but gold going down for any reason isn’t too popular.
      Peronally I continue with my % purchases every month, but you never know, gold could end up as just jewelry.

      Hugo Price has a neat article @ kwn, nothing new of course but neat to hear him saying it .

      This article is on Silver Doc, silver manipulation going back to the 1800s and why, supports Mr Price. Looks like a lot of research to me.

      “Wrecking The Silver Monetary System”: Silver Suppressors Hiding In The Dark — PART 2

        Jul 25, 2014 25:02 PM

        Yeah, it would be good to hear from jj more often. I gather he posts elsewhere since it got too hot here for awhile. I can’t really say I know where gold is going next by the way except the bear trend is back in play. I had theorized precious metals would begin to rise soon though on the premise that traders would start rotating out of some overpriced stocks and into beaten down resources well in advance of the end of QE. So far it has not happened though and the look of the charts now suggest more downside is ahead for gold near term (not all theories pan out the way we think!). We will have to wait and see what August brings. A gold meltup could still happen but it might be fleeting.

      Jul 25, 2014 25:40 PM

      Gold formed another swing low today. If this is a stretched cycle then this should mark the bottom and it won’t matter what the dollar does.

      Let’s face it the stock market has gone up for two years despite a stronger dollar. Just proves that the dollar isn’t really gaining purchasing power, its just that the euro is weaker at the moment.

        Jul 25, 2014 25:47 PM

        Thanks for clarifying with your post, Gary. I totally agree … and I’m putting up some money: I bought 20/1500 ounces Au/Ag this week through OUNZ and PSLV.

        By the way Al, thanks for having Axel Merk on your show to introduce us to his OUNZ fund. It is getting some attention for the ability to get convert shares to real gold (albeit for a 7% fee)

          Jul 25, 2014 25:47 PM

          I’m not even sure what “get convert shares” really means 😉

        Jul 25, 2014 25:59 PM

        Gary,

        Can it form a swing low if Thursday was lower? 1290 today but Thursday was lower

        Some tech charts show 1287 has low target to place a stop

    Jul 25, 2014 25:02 AM

    Thanks for the information that Euro is gold.

      Jul 25, 2014 25:07 AM

      I don’t make the rules!

        Jul 25, 2014 25:22 AM

        As a scientist, I would rather follow logic not some rules some economists make up at well. As a group, economists have the lowest IQ. There is a joke I saw that Einstein had to talk about economy when he met a guy with a 50 IQ.

    Jul 25, 2014 25:46 AM

    I wonder if Goldman liquidated all his positions when gold went below 1292..if he did …ouch

    Jul 25, 2014 25:23 PM

    I had and sold silver futures for apr 15 20.00 which are still cheaper than the price I sold at. The prices have not come back yet. With USD/DXY going up ,81.03 and the FOMC Meeting coming as well as GDP I felt I could take my profit and wait a bit. The whole announced sanctions and aledged moves in the Ukraine seem too telegraphed. If outright shock and awe won’t move this market I am not too worried about pre-planned toothless sanctions. The danger I see is a possible negative GDP print next week in the negative but what are the odds they allow that to happen on the first print. I mean they were only revised down 3.9 from first to last print on Q1.

    I can sit tight in cash a few days and wait for confirmation

    It doesn’t cost me a dime.

    Goldman

    Jul 25, 2014 25:44 PM

    but 1292, why did you choose that price to liquidate?

    Jul 25, 2014 25:51 PM

    Because it was breaking down and Gary’s cycle target just triggered my awareness to the price but it actually was breaking down below 1290. I was protecting profits from lower buy in during May. Thanks for the concern Mom

    I think there is still a solid change of a break down further. Today’s “escalation” in Isreal and Ukraine is just more of the same war. The market will buy it back unless the GDp prints poorly

      Jul 25, 2014 25:03 PM

      There are traps all around.

    Jul 25, 2014 25:41 PM

    Is anyone in here convinced of the price action in gold/hui/xau into the close?

    Did anyone buy into that?

    Im personally still on the sidelines.

    Gary? Doc? what did you guys see there at the close?

      Jul 25, 2014 25:56 PM

      Nothing to see here. Kevin Henry left for the Hamptons early today and left the interns in charge. It seems the interns got their signals crossed; Kevin had left strict instructions to buy the Dow and S&P and smash gold and silver. Obviously they did the opposite. But what do you expect from kids these days? Can’t to anything right. Bunch of no good hippies who want to see the country fail. Kevin has his job cut out for him on Monday. He has to smash gold down to Goldman’s $1200 target and buy the Dow and S&P like there is no tomorrow. Geopolitical turmoil be damned. WE are in a recovery, dammit. Red days will not be tolerated. Nothing to see here, glenfidish. It will be business as usual on Monday. Remember, the central planners have everything under control. Now go buy CYNK like the good boy you are. Support the recovery.

      bb
      Jul 25, 2014 25:37 PM

      Yesterday was a “breakdown” at 1292? today its a “swing” low, China Gold Association claims there is about a 19% drop in Chinese gold demand for the first half of this year, India hasnt changed the “gold rules” yet, all physical demand has and is being met, no shortages dispite the “to the moon” screaming,maybe its time to sit back and watch a bit.
      Doesn’t jpm have 6500 onces? tons? of physical silver their sitting on to0?
      hmmm

      Jul 25, 2014 25:14 PM

      As long as gold doesn’t open down big on Monday I will buy with a stop right below Wed. low just in case this was a stretched cycle.

    Jul 25, 2014 25:13 PM

    Holland and Oz are sending about 100 Police Officers to the site of the aircraft crash. How do you think that looks to Putin? Police Officers or an enemy force?

    What happens if some of those Police are held hostage or are kidnapped?

      Jul 25, 2014 25:25 PM

      Bob, nothing will happen. Putin knows the west has no evidence to back their claims. Like Napoleon once said, “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.” And that is what Putin is going to do. Sit back while western leaders continue to dig a whole they will never able to get out of.

    Jul 25, 2014 25:31 PM

    I meant hole. Damn fingers.

    LGC
    Jul 25, 2014 25:08 PM

    Amen and Amen Chris! Its not a matter of “”the early bird getting the worm” but rather patience winning over aggressive stupidity

      Jul 25, 2014 25:32 PM

      LGC, I am sure Putin has given the separatists strict instructions to be as accommodating as possible. Let them investigate the crash site and gather their evidence and send them on their merry way. Putin knows the crash site like the back of his hand; even knows the contents of the black boxes. Now is the time to sit tight and wait for them to make their mistakes. We’ve already seen that happen: The US came out with their YouTube “evidence” and Putin countered that by releasing information that the plane was being followed by a Ukrainian SU-25 fighter jet. Now nobody is talking about the YouTube “evidence.”

        Jul 25, 2014 25:28 PM

        chris….despite the fact that Putin is an out & out bastard he is the only one speaking the truth…..& more & more people are starting to listen to him.

    Jul 25, 2014 25:41 PM

    Putin is no saint… I wouldn’t want to cross him. Say what you want about him but I believe he has Russia’s best interests at heart. You can’t say that about our leaders.

    Jul 25, 2014 25:47 PM

    Lets take a vote in here! Who says we never see sub 1288/1292 again?

    Who says we are off to the races?

    Jul 25, 2014 25:54 PM

    One down day has no meaning. Visa & Amazon caused much of the drop.

    Jul 25, 2014 25:06 PM

    We have more of a movement yet down for the PMs——we will hit the targets I’ve mentioned in the past. Then we’ll have to see what the charts say at that point in time. We’ll see at least $24.80 for GDX and a lower price for GDXJ. Even though we’ll see a further move down in the PMs, I did do some nibbling on some stocks that haven’t sold off much and plan on being more aggressive in the next move down for the PMs. We, in all likelihood have another 2-3 weeks of pressure on the stocks and PMs.

    Jul 25, 2014 25:09 PM

    Hey Doc,
    Nice to hear from you! Did not get any commentary today, what’s up with that?

    Doc do you see hui filling that gap at 225 at the very least?

      Jul 25, 2014 25:20 PM

      Glen, I was flying home today so didn’t get a chance to talk on the program. The last thing Al said to me when I left was: “talk to you on Monday.” It’ll feel good to get back into the saddle. By the way, I think your position is good for the time being. There are too many stocks that I still feel have to technically still see some pressure on the downside. The difficult decision is when to buy since they generally tend to lead the PMs higher. I think the odds of the $hui filling that gap are very good. What do you think?

    Jul 25, 2014 25:49 PM

    Doc I’ve been saying on here for awhile the gap will fill. To big of a gap imo to be left behind. The indicators macd and slow stochs show me the miners headind lower. My gut tells me we will see that 1277/1280 you said. I feel strongly about that.

    Jul 25, 2014 25:06 PM

    I couldn’t agree more—–having said that, $1280 might not be the bottom for this move down. There might be one more significant shake out for the miners this summer, especially for the juniors and weak ones. I have a feeling the stronger ones won’t draft down as much. But it will be a great buying opportunity in my view. Right now, the path of least resistance is down.

      Jul 25, 2014 25:30 PM

      I hope you are right Doc. Nothing like another shakeout to warm a few hearts.

    Jul 25, 2014 25:48 PM

    I agree Doc.. Look forward to hearing you on Monday morning.