Gary’s thoughts on a new take on silver cycles. Thank you Robski
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What did you think of the video?
Comments from Argentus:
If you’re in touch, tell him or Al or Cory I appreciate their commentary on it. I do listen to Gary from time to time and respect his work.
Only thing … the 75 week cycle I discussed is of course an 18 month cycle. That means, being a 12 month cycle and half of the next 12 month period, it contains within it (to a certain extent) the 12 month seasonal Gary mentioned in his response. Hence why it has a complex shape. I look at the 12 month seasonal too in it’s separate form, just not this week.
I appreciate you’re “spreading the word” and the resultant feedback which wouldn’t have been forthcoming without your post at Korelin.
Cheers
AM
Robski,
I would like to have AM on our Show. How can I get in touch with him?
Al,
I have informed AM of your interest to have him on the show. Keep an eye on your email inbox, he should be contacting you soon.
disclaimer: I did not make this video, also I am still learning cycle theory.
I liked the video, for it makes me re-evaluate my previous held beliefs. I personally believe that we still have one more down turn in the metals, my price targets @ $1220/au & $18.50/ag. My timing on these targets are mid/late September. The reason behind my time frame, I believe that cycles will become shorter, ie accelerating. I base this “accelerating” pattern on what I see in the news. It seems to me that major news “happenings” have been acceleration, especially since 2011.
Robski I think most of us in here believe we have one last down turn. How big is the million dollar question that no guru can predict. I’d give a price target but id be lying as I dont know 100% where that line in the sand is either. I’d say 1280 is a for sure bet and my hui 225 Gap that needs to be filled. But as you say it can and may go even lower.
$1220 is very unlikely in my opinion, but the arguments for 1280 or even 1270 (very briefly) do make sense and would not necessarily harm the intermediate term outlook.
Al, cory and Gary keep up the great work.
As for argentus, I’ve peeked in and out of his work on the turd site for a couple of years now. He put’s in hard, dedicated work as you can see. He has a craft and art to his work. I will just say one thing and it’s not to offend his work by any means but Argentus is human and has been wrong on many occasions.
As I see it right now there are many Ta experts trying to paint a picture of where this might go. It doesn’t hurt to have guys like argentus,rambus, etc that are more qualified on how they predict things then I could ever be using there methods. However for myself, I like to keep it as simple as possible. Cycles are a great tool and i really prefer gary’s method as it can get you in and out quickly if your a trader. I like doc’s approach for longer term combined with gary’s cycle. In the end one sometimes needs to take a step back and have a few off days come back and look at the chart on a longer term perspective. When it comes down to it my heaviest purchases both trading and long term have been when macd/stochs and rsi are all under. Far under the center line. I most often then none 90% of the time get in when oversold. I don’t give a hoot if it stays oversold or macd and stochs stay at the bottom for prolonged period. I just know one thing, I got in at a good price.
Thanks for the video and daily with Gary.
Pleasure Glenfidish,
Getting in at a good price is a really good thing!
Yes Argentus is human but your comment wrong on many occasions needs to be qualified in fairness to him. All his calls are public on his forum and quarterly he posts his track record what was right and what was wrong so it wouldn’t be hard to note your comment. The last time he did this exercise, gold followed the exact trajectory of gold with I believe one inversion but the cycle work, dates of inversions were on the money. If Argentus would have been more visible and had a greater audience likely thousands of people wouldn’t be in the red. Argentus is brilliant. Never seen anything like it, and there is no track record in the metals arena that I’ve found his it’s equal. I am glad to hear Big Al is going to have him on his show. I highly recommend a couple of late nights going back to the beginning of the forum and reading his philosophy and checking out his track record for yourself. He is never a revisionist in his work because he is the only person out there drawing many lines that show many possibilities of the movement of the market.
Im sorry i didn’t mean to offend and I do take back the statement of being wrong on many occasions. I do know for a fact that he has been wrong on some occasions with his call. He is far from perfect like it or not. I don’t have the time to go into turds site and copy and paste calls or predictions or paintings of techicals or cycles he put down and was wrong about. From what I remember he doesn’t give a scenario as to when to get in or out precisely like gary does or other methods. Ask him right now what his position is? Where he stands? Is he invested or out on the sidelines? Thats all that matters to me.
I personally think there are no equals to him but I know of better one’s. That’s my own opinion.
I wasn’t offended. I simply thought it appropriate to be accurate and not color their perceptions of somebody with very broad and largely subjective comments when his track record is there for everybody to read. You are incorrect about him not giving buy and sell signals and you have to realize that he runs a private newsletter like Big Al and his comments on a public forum and his private newsletters are vastly different in depth and scope. The quality of his subscription material is not reflected in your comment. All the questions you ask are ripe for the asking. I’d suggest you come and post in the forum as you did here and simply ask him. Also, he clearly addresses the issue of precisely getting in and getting out. Hopefully Big Al gets him on and gets this information out and you are willing to take the time and ask in his free forum. Would love to see you over there and Big Al too. He has rarely not addressed a question.
Correction I said he runs a private newsletter like Big Al. I was referring to Trader Rog (he’s no longer here?) or anybody else who help others navigate these markets as traders or investors. Brilliant people shouldn’t be expected to give away free stuff so traders can make money on their experience.
Listen Im quite comfortable here.. This is my new home. I think what Al and cory have here is what I enjoy most. We have a good mix of participants here. Gary and doc are fine with me.. I personally don’t want to many guru’s coming here. It’s becoming a marketing campaign.
Sent him an invite about an hour ago.
I just want to add that some of the stocks I follow have increased in short position.
Are others out there seeing the same?
Not mine
Gary I don’t remember but are you on the sidelines or out currently?
Still on the sidelines at the moment. I’ll probably let this week go by with all the potential events to stage an attack on gold.
Im at the same place as you Gary as well as Doc..
Hey Gary, looks like now that expiration is over, Silver looks wobbly they may take it down to 1290 overnight and in the am to set up a real nasty plunge wed? Looks very dangerous to be long any PM’s right now?
What do u all think about the Fed? Do they get a little hawkish and give a bone to the Hawks on the FOMC? Do they cut more off QE? Do they say something about improvements and if so will move up interest rate hike? It is time imo that they do something to change sentiment
I DON’T LISTEN TO ANY OF THEM ANYMORE…HOW CAN ANYONE HONESTLY DISCUSS CYCLES, CHARTS OR WHATEVER WHEN WE DON’T HAVE A FREE MARKET. EVERYTHING IS BEING MANAGED, MANIPULATED, CONTROLLED AND SOFORTH, SO YOUR CHART, YOUR COMPUTER, IPAD, I.E. IS MEANINGLESS. AFTER 40 YEARS IN CORPORATE AMERICA, I CAN ASSURE YOU NOTHING IS AS YOU SAY IT IS…..AND I HAVE NO DOUBT THAT YOUR HEART IS IN THE RIGHT PLACE AND YOU MEAN WELL. UNFORTUNATELY, IT IS AS IT IS!
‘simply said’…..wyn
Wyn,
Do a very LARGE extent I completely agree; “Garbage (s__) in….garbage (s__) out……
Hi Wyn,
Remember that Gary stresses the same things that you discuss above.
ditto wyn h…………………
Gary do you have any lower targets for Gold for next low. 1280-1260 perhaps on Wen /Thu FOMC meeting smack down?
Cycles aren’t very good tools to pick targets. I’ll say this. $1287 better hold or the odds will go up significantly that gold is in a failed daily cycle.
Am I mistaken? I thought that was at 1292?
good luck to those that think can can consistently make money trading gold on a weekly or monthly basis.
We did in 4 weeks what most hedge funds would be ecstatic to do in a whole year. It’s not impossible but one has to be patient and wait for a market to setup properly.
Who are these “manipulators” that Gary keeps talking about?
He seems to believe that the manipulation will come to an end eventually.
I think it could go on for many more years.
manipulation will never end………as long as there are crooks and politicians…
GDX will test $40 within 12 months. Could happen as early as November if the republicans don’t take the House. No rate cut coming this year unless the GOP takes the House.
Are you talking about the House or the Senate, Tenyear?
The real driver of PM’s is not gold. It’s the USD, capital flows, and the general stock markets.
It is amazing to me that gold bugs keep thinking from their perspective? In 2008 PM’s were crushed with everything because the sellers got margin calls on their stock portfolios. They liquidated all holdings then bought back gold with the little money they had left at the end in December 2008.
Gold is a reaction not an action. When you look at everything from the wrong lense you end up getting whacked as most gold bugs did.
Until you understand that gold doesn’t “drive” anything then you begin to see how gold pumpers have manipulated the argument. That is the manipulation IMHO.
You might consider looking at the world from the Entire currency complex perspective.
If you follow the USD and the stock markets you see that PM’s are but one of many market to invest in.
You are right on Ken. The gold price is set in the west and until there is a serious issue with the US dollar, gold will not have the love or attention of the majority of investors. If the stock markets get the the margin calls will come in and gold – because it is so liquid – will get sold off… temporarily.
The real driver of PM’s is not gold??? Of course not. How can gold drive gold? As with any market, the “real driver” is supply/demand. In 2008, gold STILL finished the year UP nearly 6% against the dollar.
In the big picture, dollar bugs have been “whacked” not gold bugs. It’s amazing that so many people buy the notion that unbacked debt ponzi paper is, or ever was, senior to gold. Oh well…
gold bugs got wacked by the manipulated fed and banksters ,,,,nothing more……
all else is bs………….
Gotta lock at it all Jerry! At least we have to try to!
Cycles are only implied by past trading patterns. They can not be used as a script to predict the future with out manipulative trading activities and regulations to guarantee out comes according to predicted elliot wave patterns which is precisely what we have and according to law this is illegal. By definition a natural and licit market must be chaotic due to supply and demand factors based on the capabilities and interests of owners and producers versus consumers and investors. If you want the goods you have to pay the man.
Looking back over the last year or so, gold is making higher lows as Gary say, but also lower highs–thus forming a wedge as it flutters around the 200dMA. So connecting the dots, when the lines cross to form the vertex of the wedge we either beak out to the upside or breakdown. So, I guess it all depends whether the bears or bulls win out. Currently, the dominant fundamental is market manipulation by the major banks enabled by a corrupt SEC–ala corrupt government willing to throw grandma and grandpa under the bus to save a failed economic model: the hybrid cross of fascism and communism merging into crony capitalism.
So where are gold and silver going in the next few months? Oh right NOBODY has any idea. Hey where is Roger? Gone like Peter Grandich
Higher.
For anyone who want to see the video. (~13 minutes long)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2w43rEoS-PM