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Market Commentary from Doc and Gary

Big Al
July 31, 2014

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114 Comments
    Jul 31, 2014 31:37 AM

    Last I saw gold was 1280 and change. What is next?

      Jul 31, 2014 31:59 AM

      Tears of course. Followed naturally by a little laughter over here.

        Jul 31, 2014 31:01 AM

        Why tears? What stupid people care about this small moves?

          Jul 31, 2014 31:15 AM

          That’s a 70 dollar decline since mid July. Right where I called it too. Nothing small about that at all and especially as some others at the time were insisting gold was on its way to 1500 which I knew was nonsense.

            Jul 31, 2014 31:41 AM

            Is $70 move in two weeks common in gold? I saw $120 move in a day.

            Jul 31, 2014 31:55 AM

            Is 70 dollars small?

            Jul 31, 2014 31:09 PM

            Yes.

            Jul 31, 2014 31:11 PM

            Unless it is in a day or two.

            Jul 31, 2014 31:13 PM

            It is 5% Lawrence. Most gold buyers wet their pants when it rises that much.

            Jul 31, 2014 31:18 PM

            You are nuts Bird. Next stop is $10k!

            By the way, I have a bridge along with ocean view property for sale in central Arizona. Interested?

            Jul 31, 2014 31:18 PM

            $70 is not much either up or down. It might be important for S&P. I am not sure why people get excited when price varies this little. I invest in silver a lot so I am numb to this.

            Jul 31, 2014 31:24 PM

            Check Ricks site sometime for interest. They are looking at swings of a couple dollars either way. I am a big fan of silver too, by the way. So yeah, I know what you mean. If its any consolation I think we will get some really interesting moves this month but not necessarily in metals.

            bb
            Jul 31, 2014 31:32 PM

            I agree with Al, we on the way to 10k.

            Jul 31, 2014 31:39 PM

            Hi Bird, I think you mean next month. Today is 31 of July.

            I have learnt a lot during the 2008-2009 and the last couple of years. I have learnt that to invest in PM, we have to be prepared for everything and alway have enough money to buy next plunge by selling at strength even it means you make less profit in short term.

            GH
            Jul 31, 2014 31:54 PM

            I agree Lawrence. It’s not big. But it is if you’re in nugt, gdxj, gldx, or jnug!

            Jul 31, 2014 31:00 PM

            JNUG and NUGT are trash which are the best tools to separate the gamblers from their money. I never invest in the rest of your list either even I think they are viable. It is better to invest in good dividend paying PM stocks like GG and SLW if one wants to be exposed to PM stocks.

            Jul 31, 2014 31:28 PM

            Of course, I meant August Lawrence. Since I am in Africa on Cairo time I am 8 or 10 hours ahead of most of the people posting. I keep forgetting. I am often on the next business day when you guys are in the evening of the earlier one. Sorry about that.

      Jul 31, 2014 31:15 PM

      Up a bit now Steven

        Jul 31, 2014 31:36 PM

        I’d like to see 10K by Labor day Al so that I could go to College and learn to do something new that might pay better than stair building. I wouldn’t have to sacrifice too much of my stack to pay tuition and living expenses. Architectural technician or technologist might be interesting.

      Jul 31, 2014 31:26 PM

      $1224 is next.

        Jul 31, 2014 31:07 PM

        MAD……”NO”……..

    Jul 31, 2014 31:38 AM

    The big money is selling the Dollar and buying the Euro. We should see higher Gold prices very soon.

      Jul 31, 2014 31:59 AM

      I don’t see that yet Jesus.

        Jul 31, 2014 31:11 PM

        Haha, don’t try to tell god. He knows everything.

          Jul 31, 2014 31:20 PM

          I will be more careful next time!

            bb
            Jul 31, 2014 31:35 PM

            Maybe the name is pronounced Hey Zues.

        Jul 31, 2014 31:34 PM

        Dollar top is right around 82.6 where three interlocking Fibonacci relationships have a ratio number ( .236, .382, and .618 ) within tenths of each other. One of these Fib relationships goes all the way back to the Dollar top in 2001.

          Aug 01, 2014 01:35 AM

          Your calling for another penny gain? I think you might be right. Despite being in overbought territory the dollar still looks good to go to me too. I am learning that your calls are often pretty good MAD so I will keep an eye on it.

      Jul 31, 2014 31:19 PM

      Is that why the dollar is stronger today?

    agree on the gold price higher………….

    Gary is spot on ……………….

    Jul 31, 2014 31:49 AM

    Great show, but I have to disagree about the comments on the Dollar. With stocks, commodities, AND bonds going down today I would expect it to be going up harder than .01 to .03 percent. Still hasn’t broken through top of it’s range. If it can’t do so soon I say she heads back down.

      Jul 31, 2014 31:10 PM

      BD…….Ignore the dollar , its only the PPT having a busy day.

    Jul 31, 2014 31:53 AM

    Hey DOC,

    Long time but I have been traveling and taking advantage of the short but warm summer weather.

    Watch for the low in Gold and Silver between now and Aug. 16th and then next low due between Oct. 20-Dec. 20. Depending on the low made between now and Aug. 16th, if we take out this low any time after aug. 16th, this warns that we will see lower lows into Oct. 20-Dec. 20th time frame.

    Regardless, we should a nice rally after Aug. 16th and the real exciting part will be if we make a higher high into Oct 20-Dec. 20th time frame.

    If this past week was the top in NYSE CAD line, the volatility should explode over the next 2-3 years.

    pg
    Jul 31, 2014 31:57 AM

    Cory or Big Al,

    Can you take my name of my previous comment, it should be pg

    thanks

      Jul 31, 2014 31:20 PM

      Specifically which comment?

    Jul 31, 2014 31:57 AM

    I don’t know Al. This market is shaping up pretty much according to how I thought the script would play out. Except crude which just threw a monkey hammer at me (can’t win them all I guess). Gold was too obviously set for a decline today after that big jump in the dollar yesterday. I was not surprised at all so and that worked very well. So glad I did not buy into that nonsense about golden crosses on GDXJ and elsewhere. August is setting up to be a downer on the broad markets. Oats look to be wanting to close the gap finally. The world is in fine shape!

      Jul 31, 2014 31:10 AM

      It’s silly to call a simple technical development that reflects strength “nonsense.” GDXJ is just a proxy for the sector —good, bad, and ugly. The action has been just fine:
      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p15617911741&a=359790623

      Jul 31, 2014 31:16 AM

      If we look at one of the largest, high quality components of GDXJ, things look much better.
      I believe that quality miners will continue to show us what to expect ahead of the rest of the sector. So far, so good…
      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=P.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p94334819629&a=360967303

        Jul 31, 2014 31:58 PM

        FWIW, agree with you Matthew…
        Interesting to compare the price action between gold and mining stocks, off the March top vs. how they are acting now. The mining stocks have hung there very well given the sell off in physical. Admittedly, nearing a key juncture. If physical should continue to decline, it is going to be difficult for the miners to avoid a deeper retracement.

        All that said, I know what I own. The mining stocks I am concentrating on — their shares are being given away. I am content to hold them and wait for the tide to turn. Like Rick Rule, given my age, I am thinking this is one of the last big cycle turns I am going to be in position to capitalize on.

          Jul 31, 2014 31:42 PM

          I am in the same boat Eric!

      PF
      Jul 31, 2014 31:13 PM

      Birdman, do you follow corn and wheat? Those prices look very low and tempting.

        Jul 31, 2014 31:18 PM

        Yes, I do follow. They are near buy targets and with hostilities brewing in Ukraine bets are very good both could see sharp price increases late August to Early September. A conflict should amplify seasonals.

          Aug 01, 2014 01:48 AM

          Where gold is concerned however, I continue to harbour many doubts. Just one of the reasons for my ambivalence is that the Euro is trending down and that is generally negative for gold. The second is the recent statements from Janet Yellen on rate normalization should the economy improve.

          Now, whatever one may think of the economic numbers or whether they are being massaged, the fact is that we have been seeing improvements in employment, consumer credit, wages, and GDP. This tells me that not only will the Fed carry through with their Taper to conclusion until late fall but that short term interest rates will face pressures to start to rise.

          Ms Yellen has indicated just that, stating that depending on how fast we see improvements in the economy will be dictating the pace at which consideration is given to increasing the Federal Funds Rate. Well improvements have been seen month after month of late. It matters not that we believe the data or not. What matters is those are the posted numbers the rest of the world uses.

          So gold has pressures both from a rising dollar (falling Euro) and now with the threat that rates will begin to slowly rise. Perhaps as early as second or third quarters 2015. That also tells us QE4 is not very likely despite crying from some corners of the investment world who think they cannot make money without Fed supports! Maybe they need a different occupation.

          Gold meanwhile continues in a bear trend as confirmed by another lower high (daily chart) which will no doubt be followed by another lower low. Prices have already shed in excess of 50% of their gains that had been achieved since the start of the year and investors are souring on the probabilities of a swift recovery for metals. Gold is currently firmly planted right in the middle of its six month trading range and near to threatening a key support. There is a very high probability in my opinion that sees gold drops below 1250 in the week ahead.

          How the heck can that be bullish for gold miners as some people here insist!

          The only potential bright spot I currently see is that it is my belief that many commodities will begin to assert themselves off deep lows during this month of August and September. Gold and silver (generally speaking) track the sector but they do not always do so in a synchronized manner.

          While I can make a convincing case for grains to see a sharp price rise in the near future due to Ukraine/Russian/European conflicts developing, supply disruptions, poor crop results due to troubles and transportation issues, I cannot make the same case for gold.

          The reason is that it usually responds more tightly with US monetary policy, rate setting and dollar strength than fear trades and international drama. So it is well within reason softs and grains and energy could all be lifted higher yet gold still remain a laggard. This is in fact what the charts are indicating with the exception that metals will bounce once this current decline phase has completed.

          Until I see more conclusive signs that gold is about to break from its overarching current bear pattern I will continue to doubt the promoters claims of precious metals being on the cusp of a massive breakout. Quite the contrary, they are in retreat at this time and showing little sign of secular strength.

          The burden of the whole commodity complex being in decline for the past several months may not be lifted for gold even as other sectors of the resource arena look to be taking flight. As I noted in the beginning of this post, we should be listening more closely to what policy communications are telling us about the dollar, Euro and interest rates to divine golds overall outlook.

      Jul 31, 2014 31:25 PM

      Bird remember when I told you the key driver to push miners and gold higher into next run would be sub 80 on wti/oil? My opinion has not changed. I also expect euro to head south and dollar up.

        Jul 31, 2014 31:37 PM

        I don’t recall it Tony. I don’t doubt you though. You could well be right. In my case I have not had the best luck calling crude lately. I did see the initial drop coming at 107. It was clear as a damn bell and a great trade. But then I felt 100 would hold and a bounce would commence. Surprised me when it dropped another two bucks. I will keep my eye on it.

    Jul 31, 2014 31:06 AM

    So what do we get on Friday – BIG rally on the DOW as if noting has happened.

    Seems today that everyone is going to cash – stocks are down but gold and silver are being sold off as well. Why is this – fear, margin calls or just everyone running to cash in case this fall is the start of a big crash?

      Jul 31, 2014 31:23 PM

      Opinions on this tomorrow, Bob.

      Can I be honest?

      Thank you, not much sense out there in my mind!

      Jul 31, 2014 31:43 PM

      We could see a rise Monday, Bob. In fact I feel sure we will see a rise Monday at least in the early part of the day so it is probably not prudent to take bets against the market on Friday afternoon. The Dow is down 3.5% since I called the top on the 18th and my expectation is that continued declines will be the flavour of the month. It will not be easy to play though and as we are seeing already, even the pros have been frustrated by the way the market declined the past few days.

    Jul 31, 2014 31:19 AM

    I don’t agree with Gary’s assessment that fundamentals mean nothing. Otherwise why not manipulate the price of food, oil, commodities, health car, etc. (everything we want) and make their price depressed and make wage go up? Then we reach the wonder land of flooding the world with money while the general prices go down? Will that be a great world? We are all rich without having to put in hard work.

    My opinion is that regardless how low they suppress the price, they will have to surrender to fundamentals, since wonderland can not be achieved by humans, especially by human misbehaviours.

      Jul 31, 2014 31:48 AM

      I agree with you, Lawrence. Manipulations can only win battles since they can’t print gold (or any other commodity!).

        Jul 31, 2014 31:08 PM

        This is what I think. They can win battles easilly since they control the exchanges and have a lot of money. However, to control the price in a long term, they have to produce real stuff, which printing money can never achieve. War analogy is Vietname War, US won nearly all the battles but they lost the war eventually (OOPS …). It is those constant bleedings eventually change the result. It might take time but little guys like me can never fight GS/JMS and expect to win quick .

          Jul 31, 2014 31:09 PM

          Typo, should be JPM not JMS.

            Jul 31, 2014 31:18 PM

            Lawrence….The arms manufactures & the bankers won the Vietnamese war same as its always been.

      GH
      Jul 31, 2014 31:13 PM

      All depends on your time frame, no?

    Jul 31, 2014 31:25 AM

    It would be nice to see the HUI fill its gap with a quick, scary plunge tomorrow morning along with a violent reversal that starts way above the H&S target. Whether we get that scenario or not, I believe that great gains are coming soon to the miners.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p02144794393&a=361889618

      Jul 31, 2014 31:11 PM

      Almost the whole commodity sector has been in decline Matthew. The dollar has been rising. Stock markets have gone flat and are now falling. Where do you see hope for gold miners in that set of circumstances? Like people are going to run out and buy miners if gold is sinking and stocks are going down too? Or is this your long term prediction? A stock market correction during August is not something that would get me excited about miners except that it sets up a buying opportunity later. Where we stand right now is that gold has lost more than half its gains since the year began.

        Jul 31, 2014 31:50 PM

        Gold is only a commodity in a general sense. From an investment perspective, it is money, period. This is why it does poorly relative to commodities when the economy is expanding. Even lead and copper outperformed gold in the years immediately preceding the 2008 collapse. Gold finished 2008 up nearly 6% while industrial metals like copper and platinum finished down roughly 53% and 39%, respectively.
        Here’s what I expect going forward:
        http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=30&id=p15119054893&a=361900771

          Jul 31, 2014 31:10 PM

          Sorry.. Matthew, you mean HUI and SPX will converge like in 2001?

            Jul 31, 2014 31:41 PM

            Yes. SPX down; HUI up. Then, we might see both rise together like we saw from 2004 to 2007. The miners will (continue to) dramatically outperform conventional stocks. For 2014, GDX and GDXJ are up 20% and 30%, respectively, while SPY is up just under 6%.

          GH
          Jul 31, 2014 31:30 PM

          I agree. The monthly dollar chart says upward as well, to me.
          http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$USD&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=30&i=t35492182544&r=1406838485505
          Money out of stocks, into gold, the dollar, and maybe commodities?

            Jul 31, 2014 31:31 PM

            Sorry.. GH… could not view your link…. I guess I need to have a login account?

          Aug 01, 2014 01:59 AM

          Mathew, the question was, where do you see signs of hope for gold miners at a time when both the stock market is in decline along with a very bearish outlook for precious metals? Please explain what would prompt any investor to rush to either GDX or GDXJ when stocks and metals are falling together?

          I have an alternative scenario. Gold falls below 1250 and most of the miners look like rubble by mid month while the GDXJ golden cross eventually turns back into a death cross before anybody gets to enjoy a big uplifting moment in the sun. How do you like that prediction?

          Stocks down…..gold stocks down too.

            Aug 01, 2014 01:45 AM

            I don’t think much of that prediction, to tell the truth. Of course, anything is possible. As for “signs of hope” for the miners, they are everywhere.
            2014 has already been superb for my miners. Even the VXX calls I mentioned buying recently are up nearly 100%.
            I think gold will reverse around $1270 if it hasn’t already. I would be very surprised if it went any lower than about $1257. Short term, sure the miners could fall another 10-15%, but that is meaning compared to the coming rally.

            Aug 01, 2014 01:03 AM

            Typo- meaning should be meaningless.

        Jul 31, 2014 31:24 PM

        BIRD…if it was not for the fact that the dollar is the reserve currency then America would have been a banana republic years ago , but its coming “THEY” are moving East they have plundered the US & the rest of the west….on to pastures new.

          Jul 31, 2014 31:52 PM

          Don’t bank on “them” growing too strongly Tony. I assume you are referring to the Chinese. But look, here is the problem, they do not export much in the way of commodities. China, for example, is the worlds largest producer of canola, gold and wheat if I am not mistaken. Their problem is that they consume all of what they produce. In the big game of stakes at the table it matters that you have a surplus to export. Thus, signs that the US could be a net seller of energy products is significant. Do not forget all the other agricultural commodities such as corn and wheat they are surplus producers of. These resources are part of what backs a currency and gives it meaning.

    Jul 31, 2014 31:39 AM

    Gold silver ratio is not going up (down for the moment). This is not a real plunge in gold price. True bearishness in PM market always impacts silver more than gold. Unless they can get silver price down big, the price will recover.

      Jul 31, 2014 31:31 PM

      I agree.

        Jul 31, 2014 31:19 PM

        Me too.

      Aug 01, 2014 01:02 AM

      This is a real plunge in gold prices. It is on my screen right now. There is a prefect set of three lower lows and three lower highs during the month of July and it looks to be in a continuation pattern so don’t expect relief for awhile.

    PG
    Jul 31, 2014 31:39 AM

    Hey Doc,

    I have been on vacation for a bit and enjoying the summer.

    Here goes, expect Gold and Silver to make their lows between now and Aug. 16th. I am personally eyeing 1087 for gold. Once the lows are made the next lows are not due till Oc.t 20-Dec. 20 time frame and here is the catch, if Gold makes lower lows than wherever we bottom in the next 2 weeks, then this will signal that we will make even lower lows into Oct. 20 – Dec. 20 time frame. Regardless, after Aug. 16th looking for a nice rally. This mehtodology has worked like clockwork for the past 7 years.

    Looks as though the CAD line is topping now and I am watching the Royal Bank stock as the 2 have topped simultaneously over the past 2 decades.

    The volatility should explode if this past month was the top in CAD line.

    Take care

      Jul 31, 2014 31:45 AM

      It would be a good news since we haven’t got much chance to buy this year. I miss the $400 days when I started to invest in PM. Do you think they will return?

      Jul 31, 2014 31:25 PM

      Thanks PG

        PG
        Jul 31, 2014 31:44 PM

        Big Al,

        No problem and glad to be able to share my thoughts and pick up a few things from your guests and comments.

      Jul 31, 2014 31:44 PM

      PG, if you’re eyeing 1087 gold by Aug. 16th, it’ll have to drop out of bed—-technically, at this time there is no evidence of that happening within that time frame of 11 trading days. Of course, that could change, but we’ll see.

        PG
        Jul 31, 2014 31:00 PM

        Hey Doc,

        I will take whatever comes but the real intersting part is that many of the big miners are holding up very well and diverging as metls drop.(ie. making higher low relative to Gold and Silver prices back in early June). We still have a couple weeks.

        Take care

          Jul 31, 2014 31:30 PM

          Thanks for your thoughts—-we’re entering a very interesting time the rest of summer. Things appear as though volatility is coming back. IMO, it’ll be a good time to add to your PM holdings.

            PG
            Jul 31, 2014 31:38 PM

            Doc I agree 100%, watching (on TSX) IMG, SVM, ABX, GPR, AMM, TMM just to name a few. Charts are starting to look nice and more importantly monthly MACD is looking good. Just a matter of time until the sector bottoms out.

            Jul 31, 2014 31:13 PM

            I agree Richard. Things are getting quite interesting. My summer stock melt thesis says that commodities will bottom (mostly the softs and grains) and there will be something of an interim shift into resources as equities see a correction.

            The two major sectors of commodities and stocks are therefore going to see an inversion in other words. That would call for a rise in energy resources as we proceed through the month as well as reversals upward in corn, wheat and many others. At the same time, stock markets will be going through a decline. I remain somewhat ambivalent on gold however but I am quite upbeat on crude, natural gas and heating oil.

            So far so good. I have not been disappointed except for that gut kick on crude.

            The Dow has lost almost 600 points since my call for an imminent correction back on the 18th…… Yes, I picked that within a day or two of the top. So a pat on the back for me (I will congratulate myself since nobody hands out many compliments on this site!).

            Actually, the only guy here who was on board with me was Man About Dallas and I have got to say I am really starting to appreciate that guys insights. He also got equity sell signals the exact same day I did when the rest of the crowd was plugging the opposite trade. And you know what…it matters that you get it right. Others have been calling for a stock correction almost continuously for the past five years.

            Actually, I ought to get some kind of award especially as this was only the second time in the past five years I made a top call. First time back a few months ago I was rebuffed and punished by the market but this time it looks like I nailed it. Thank you God. Nobody can accuse me of being a stopped clock!

    Jul 31, 2014 31:15 PM

    I’ve been pretty consistent with my calls and here comes another. Hui will 100% fill the gap at 225. So yes the miners will break lower and so will gold. Sorry but it’s the hard fact. Indicators are showing this.

      Jul 31, 2014 31:26 PM

      Got to agree Glen.

        Jul 31, 2014 31:23 PM

        Thanks Bird! Anytime you get Bird on your side you got to feel good 🙂 .

          Jul 31, 2014 31:16 PM

          Many thanks Glen. That cheered me up! 🙂

          Aug 01, 2014 01:14 AM

          See my today’s post above Glen. I think I can rationalize exactly why metals and miners will not perform well for at least the early part of August and also why they will probably continue to perform poorly for the bulk of this year.

      Jul 31, 2014 31:41 PM

      Glen, as we talked about before, HUI will hit 225 and I believe lower then that. However, that probably will then be a good buy. There is no evidence (as yet) that the gold miner sector is readying itself for another massive down move. I’ll give you one stock as an example and that is large cap Newmont. Look at it today and the chart. This drop currently is not scaring me and I’m looking to buy by mid August which I’ve mentioned in the past—-unless of course, the technicals tell medifferently at that time.

        Jul 31, 2014 31:27 PM

        Rich, I very much agree with you! Another mid/large cap Iamgold is hanging in tuff. 225 is first stop and yes there are lower gaps that could be filled. I do expect however at some point for all miners to roll over once more. Patience is the hardest thing to do when your mind is telling you to get in. Believe me when I say hang on as miners will head lower and break down. Personally dock I will time them by 225 hui and see if indicators suggest lower. If not then I will move in. You got the right idea doc. You have been great lately with your calls. Earlier gary had upside and now you have taken the lead. This is why I believe that cycles need indicators to enhance overall affect. Rick has had good calls as well lately.

          Jul 31, 2014 31:18 PM

          Well I agree with both of you. The differences amongst us relate mostly to timing. I generally stick to pretty short periods whereas Doc thinks in terms of months. I appreciate you guys who have long term outlooks.

            Aug 01, 2014 01:16 AM

            In other words, miners could be a good buy but only on a short term basis in my view. I would not bet heavily on them holding gains through the year.

    Jul 31, 2014 31:16 PM

    Gary just smoked his subs again. Just when he was getting his mojo back…Bam!

    He is entertaining put there are very few people out there with worse track records. Fade Gary – Always!

      Jul 31, 2014 31:31 PM

      Gary has been great for over two/three months… You would have made tons of money on his calls.. So he got one wrong lately but got his subs out in time with minimal loss.. No one is perfect. Im far from it.

      You know what? Im yet to meet someone who has never lost money in the stock market lmao.. Everyone I come across at a party or function is a genius and guru.

        Jul 31, 2014 31:20 PM

        We get humbled weekly Glen. As long as you live to see another day though its water over the dam.

    bb
    Jul 31, 2014 31:40 PM

    Thanks for every bodys input.
    Just time to say so again, last couple days have been interesting comments, to say the least.
    I don’t agree with everyone but it is nice to be with company that actualy thinks.

    Ken
    Jul 31, 2014 31:04 PM

    I stress again somethign simple.

    the markets are crashing
    smart money is sold out of the market and only the fish are left
    PM’s are not important anymore since most people short the VIX for volubility protection.

    Got to Starbucks, they all use their smartphone for payment. The gold relic has no place in this new electronic world.

    The measure is the USD – period. The gold centric view is nothing more than flat earth folks viewing the world from the flat earth they live in. IMHO

    I will use my old coins to bribe the concentration camp guards who will only accept non electronic assets so they don’t get the firing squad.

    The manipulation argument is an excuse for bad strategy.

    Good luck to all.

      GH
      Jul 31, 2014 31:18 PM

      Manipulation–sure, it is an easy excuse for bad trading. But that doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. Whatever one wants to call the crazy, counterintuitive moves, one does well to take them into consideration.

      Sure, most Americans don’t know, don’t care. Maybe most other Anglos/Euros don’t care either. But they’re small markets, so it doesn’t take many. And smart money knows and cares. And then there are the Asians.

      PM’s time will come again, and I’m guessing soon.

      Jul 31, 2014 31:40 PM

      I think gold has been around and used as money for a lot longer than the U.S. dollar. Period.

        Jul 31, 2014 31:14 PM

        Ken, you have far too much faith in funny money. Every day there is a new story about the USD not being used for international transactions. The petrodollar is coming to an end. The USD may be going up for now but don’t be fooled, it is just a short term trade.

        Benjamin Graham said that the market behaves like a voting machine, but in the long term it acts like a weighing machine. I think he is right. Compared to gold, the USD is a lightweight.

          Jul 31, 2014 31:45 PM

          If you mean short term as in several generations then you might be right, opusnz. Thing is the US dollar was used by my Great grandfather, my grandfather, my father and now by me and the same dollars that were being used back then can still be spent today. It may have lost buying power over the years but it remains one of the longest lasting of currencies and it is still in existence. In the meantime there are not better alternatives and that is not going to change very fast. So it is the money of our day. I would not bet against it, especially considering the macro trends of the worlds other major currencies.

            Aug 01, 2014 01:00 AM

            They are not the same dollars. The current, debt-based IOU fraud dollar is only 43 years old.

            Aug 01, 2014 01:51 AM

            I referred specifically to the continuous use of the dollar and its viability over a long period of time. I did not mention the twists and turns of the gold or silver standards nor Bretton Woods nor Nixon or anything else. In fact, the dollars that were issued many years ago are still legal tender today (If you are fool enough to actually spend one). That was the only point. Please read more carefully next time.

            Aug 01, 2014 01:06 AM

            Hey Matthew…I called the current stock correction almost literally to the day. I bet your technical’s did not give any insight on that because you were awfully quiet the whole time I was explaining exactly why stocks would go down. Or do you only cover gold……

            Aug 01, 2014 01:14 AM

            I’m awfully quiet about most of what I see technically (and about my trading). I bought the VXX calls that I mentioned here because of the view that a decline is near.

      Jul 31, 2014 31:53 PM

      Ken, which has held its value since the Fed opened its doors 100 years ago, the Federal Reserve Note or the “relic?” And which one has lost more than 95% of its value?

      Mr. Paperpusher himself, Alan Greenspan even spoke the truth once:
      “In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.

      This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists’ tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists’ antagonism toward the gold standard.”

      http://www.constitution.org/mon/greenspan_gold.htm

        Aug 01, 2014 01:22 AM

        You can’t trade on that though, Matthew. Every truth apparent does not automatically mean it will result in a profit unless your time frame is many decades or a century. We live in a fiat world. It is one that is shifting inexorably to being fully digital. Precious metals coinage has been out of favour for 50 years already in most countries of the world and credit has come to dominate all spheres of business, commerce and trade. The next stage takes us to a paperless system that may ironically finally make gold and silver coins quite valuable again. But I seriously doubt they will trade daily as money except in the underworld and on black markets.

    Jul 31, 2014 31:57 PM

    I saw the gold price today and expected my gold stocks to get absolutely hammered. They were down, but not nearly as much as I thought. Some like Yamana were actually up. Volume in the gold stocks has been picking up. This seems bullish to me.

    FWIW, the “gold is going to drop” trade seems to be awfully crowded to me. Everybody hates gold, yet seasonally it is almost always a good time to buy in July and August. I don’t get it. The contrarian in me says to buy now and take advantage of these dips….

    Jul 31, 2014 31:34 PM

    Finally some fear in the market. VIX popping like Orville Redenbacher. I like having Doc and Gary together in the interview, “fundamentally” speaking. Allows nice comparisons and contrast of views.

      Aug 01, 2014 01:29 AM

      Seems like only a few days ago the VIX was below 10

    Jul 31, 2014 31:56 PM

    As I mentioned a while back the short positions in gold were massive so they have to take it down to take some decent profits. When the short covering starts then it will move up.

      Aug 01, 2014 01:31 AM

      If I had a nickel for every time someone said exactly that Paul…..

    Jul 31, 2014 31:50 PM

    Al,
    If you haven’t learned by now that fundamentals are not affecting the gold price I’m not sure what is going to change your view on this. You’ve been telling us for the past 4 years that you can’t understand why, with the fundamentals the way they are, the price of gold has not gone higher.
    It might not go higher for a long, long time.

    Aug 01, 2014 01:28 AM

    Oil is down over $6 since Gary’s call of an intermediate bottom.

    Aug 01, 2014 01:28 AM

    Is that manipulation or Gary just being wrong?