Things are looking rough out there
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There is potentially no shortage of paper gold hence no need to seriously raise the price. Physical might become another matter but only if sellers demand more for physical than for paper. At some point paper and physical must cease to be fungible with each other. It is the presumed fungibility of paper with physical that allows the market to dictate the price of physical metal. At some point a physical long gold or silver owner has to tell the market that the paper price is not good enough and it needs to be a mass movement. The real deal costs more plain and simple.
Really interesting you said that bb. You see I think it is pretty important that the US is about to become the worlds largest producer of energy. The list or resources there includes oil, gas, processed and refined petroleum products, uranium and a host of energy alternatives which include solar and bio-fuels.
You add it all up and what does it tell you?
What this is saying is that the next currency crisis will demand countries prove they have adequate resources to support a global currency. Secondly that they are a net exporter which means they have the means to pay the bills and cover their debts they create.
This is not idle conjecture. It has long been assumed that the next discussions of what is going to back the global currency system will have a commodities component. But more importantly is that the countries coming to the table have sufficient resources to meet both domestic AND foreign demands. Otherwise a reserve has not so much meaning on the international stage.
For example, China is the worlds largest producer or wheat (or is it canola) but they consume ALL of it themselves. That does not give their currency more depth or reach if they cannot transact in that major commodity except as a buyer. Put another way, when the US was the worlds largest holder of gold it could maintain status as the major currency provider because in principal all its dollars at one time could be traded for that commodity.
That is how banks once functioned under a pure gold standard.
So then, what do you offer if you have no gold or if your gold cannot sufficiently back the money you have created and put into the global economy? The most obvious choice is energy and most specifically oil and gas. It is this little connection between resources and the currency a country hosts that gives us a hint as to why the US has put so much efforts into energy production, energy alternatives and locating new finds.
It might also explain why the Arab nations need to be broken up so as to prevent any one of them from coming to the table as equals. Thus we see armed conflicts and crisis in almost all of the major oil producers in Africa and the Middle East and why we see discord being created where Russian sales to Europe are concerned.
Meanwhile, Israel has located monster finds of gas off its coast, England has apparently discovered one of the largest gas fields on the planet and both Australia and Canada are churning out billions of BTU’s of exportable bitumen, coal, oil, gas and uranium as we speak.
This is all connected. The next discussions about what will stabilize the worlds future currency will revolve around commodities (make that exportable commodities) but it will not be gold playing the starring role. It will be fuels and foods. Like wheat and corn and bananas and chickens and sugar and cheese and so many others.
Center stage will be taken by the energy complex itself. It is why I believe we must focus on that area when diversifying during a period of falling assets or during a period of crisis when equities fall. Oil and gas are the new gold. More particularly, those fields that are located in safe jurisdiction’s. Canada, the US and Australia should be the best of class for safety, dividends and growth even as wars heat up and the economy declines.
There is ALWAYS an outlet for capital when the economy turns down. I think this is it.
The trouble with backing a currency with oil or gas what happens when your probable reserves are gone and what will you do if you need to export that energy to balance the books.
We don’t worry about that until the next currency cycle 50 years down the road. But it is part of the reason why soft commodities and grains will also play a role. The idea is so that even non-energy countries can participate. That will be demanded.
As an aside….when the oil is gone we are pretty much back to trading beads and shells anyway.
” You see I think it is pretty important that the US is about to become the worlds largest producer of energy. ” ‘Bird? That’s about the BIGGEST “Big Lie” they’ve tried to cram down the sheeples’ throats this century, right behind 9-11. And the real tragedy is that because people now BELIEVE there’s more than there really is, the natural human propensity to consume a ( perceived ) surplus even faster guarantees the finite supply of the substance in question WILL be used up even FASTER. The U.S. will be back to natural gas SHORTAGE by 2025 if not sooner.
The past is the past and the new paradgym will dictate pricing thru manipulation. On Fox this am a trader says that he expects thru the rest of this year Japan will see their economy shrink 6% . Already their bonds are only paying 1/2 of l%. The unwinding is continuing and I don’t foresee the banksters turning that around. Kicking the can down the road has become and Olympic sport.
Added this am to my short position created at $1306 gold levels as I posted at Gary’s blog
The biggest issue looking back at you on the Gold chart is yes, higher lows have been put in place since last summer BUT higher highs have not!…that’s the basics of any bull market……….works for me as money can be made from the short and long side.
It seems only Russia has the power to move our markets. They threaten to invade Ukraine and gold jumps and Dow dumps.
CARY ! GOLD WILL WIN !!!!!!! ALL WAR BUY BUY BUY !!!!!!!!!!!!
HAAAAAAAAAAAA 88888888888 !!!!!!!!!!! GOLD ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=643x5ENB61Y
I fully expect a .97 dollar as war breaks out and capital flows go nuts into USD denominated vehicles.
There simply is no place to hide and it is better to be in the reserve currency and a country with a rule of law ( Well sort of except for the communists oligarchs running the show here).
I have said numerous times that the world does not revolve around gold. It revolves around the USD.
You will continually lose your short if you don’t turn around your perspective.
Gold will not break this downdraft until every gold bug is flopping on the curb. Thus the $900 dollar gold and a .97 cent USD comes into play.
It is a USD .97 cent perspective that will save you – not a 900 gold perspective.
Instead of running to gold investors are running to an Anti – VIX short or derivative of it.
gold is not the safe haven anymore. Gold is an anachronism of a bygone world. Look a the kids and young adults today. They pay with their smartphone. Do you honestly believe they will buy gold in a crisis? Heck no they will go on Facebook and find out what their friends buy in crisis which will probably some bitcoin derivative of some sort IMHO>
Good luck to all.
Nice theory, Ken, except nobody buys the currency of the eventual loser, and the rest of the world has already figured out the U.S. is going to be the loser of WW3. 5000 years of gold, Ken, or 200 years of U.S.$ ? Har, de-har-har-har. ( and -HAR! ) Keep your U.S. $, though, Ken…. they’re almost as soft as Charmin. ( might leave green stains, but who’ll notice ’em there, right? )
LOST BALL IN HIGH WEEDS…….the dollar is going down just as it has for 100 years….
Gary I like and respect you and your cycle theory…would you say that in a controlled and heavily manipulated market cycles don’t necessarily work? Or that they are compromised?
They are still working. It’s just that the manipulation has forced gold into a likely left translated intermediate cycle.
Watch this video its very good…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=UU-7vnmA1Zf1cRyqs9aR77ag&v=x5ZNhg0Z6CI&feature=player_detailpage
GOOD VIDEO joseph ! Thank’s . Only the BOSS is no Rothschild no Rockefeller !
Who’s the Boss? franky…
CAESAR OF ROME !
I NOW YOU THINK i CRAZY YOU WILL SEE YOU WILL SEE !!!!!!!!!!!!!
franky ………you are more sane than our leader……………
Thank’s ! J,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,THE LONG,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,OOTH ! Soo few seeing and so much denial and lair ! GOD HELP US !!!!!!!!!! GOD !
Franky, could be like mini me, he could follow the boss around the golf course on his scooter.
Yes and all the SODOMITSE looking NO ME ! MAN !
you are to funny…………..franky
I’ve had some more time on my hands to check back in with the kereport lately, and I’ve gotta say that some of these interviews sound like eulogies at a funeral (and I mean that in the best way possible.)
Contrarian indicator, anyone?
Dennis ………called for something to happen on Aug 5th……..did it happen?
Yeah, Gary. Like Cory said…. the dollar is going up. He is calling you out I think. When the hell are you going to cry uncle and admit I called it correctly. You know, it really bugs me about some of you guys who were fighting me tooth and nail with your cycles and theories about the dollar (which were wrong) and even after being proven wrong you still don’t come around and give the Bird a pat on the back and say “good call, man”. And I am not getting puffed up like a turkey or anything like that. I just don’t want you to forget it because nobody here is gracious about these things. By the way, this is a market with more opportunities than I have seen in a long time. I don’t understand how you can be so negative on it.
We have James Brown’s cape ready for you bird, you just have to kneel down so we can put it on.
I’m not that proud Dick. So thanks anyway you can keep it. But Gary and I duked it out over the dollar for quite some time. It did not matter how convincing a case I made he just refused to hear it while sticking firmly with his conspiracy ideas that I do not agree with.
So this is not gloating or anything stupid like that. I just want him to know that sometimes common sense still rules over offering excuses like saying unseen powers are manipulating all the markets behind the scenes. OK.
Anyway..you called the dollar wrong too. How the hell can you guys figure gold if you can’t even pin down the direction of the worlds primary reserve currency? This only proves that taking a broader perspective of precious metals including the influence of resources, currencies, interest rates and inflation get you to better results.
PS….Euro heading to 1.27 so stay tuned. This is a gold murder.
It’s far from over, remember The Fat Lady has yet to sing!
You can wait in the wings for closing curtains, Dick, or you can play it while it’s alive. Fat lady sings in the last act.
YES THE DOLLAR UP AND BASE METALS UP YES YES I WIN NICE NO MARKET CAL APSE AND NR % WIN’s and we JESUS LOVE’S YOU TO BIRDMAN !
BIRDMAN ! EVIL RULE’S https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rVFse1LLQs
At this point like I said in the interview it does look like May could turn out to be the three year cycle low.
BTW I think there is a big opportunity in stocks soon. They may have even bottomed today. Oil also is due for a bottom anytime now.
Oh Lord……that’s it? You repeat an assertion with a “could turn out” remark. Sheesh. You need a confidence boost.
I’m not convinced yet that May was a final three year cycle low. If it was it was the mildest one in history. Usually a three year cycle low is marked by complete panic similar to what we saw in 2008 and 2011.
The ECB is trying very hard to push the euro down. This may end up stretching the 3 year cycle longer than expected.
GARY COM ONE MAN ! buy the machine ! ? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3MB2CvUcXo
Any of you Kisco people out there know why the charts have stopped updating? (Not the live spot the 30 day, etc)????
Kitco is corrupt media controlled off on electricity off on day control all ! TV is the worst off all ! by strong !
(Kitco)
Well, the price of gold is being kept down, maybe the demand for physical will eventualy cause the price of paper gold up.
If the BRICs or somebody decide to back their currency with metal that might do it.
At least if that ever happnes we probly find out how much is at fort knox.