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Will the US dollar start to fall anytime soon?

August 7, 2014

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27 Comments
    Aug 07, 2014 07:38 AM

    nope!

    Aug 07, 2014 07:43 AM

    Gary always appreciate your thoughts.. I personally have a 83 target on the us dollar. This is strictly due to the continued pressure of fed continuing to decrease the taper. Now standing at 25 billion I see them going all the way through with this to the point of elections. I can i see it. We have reduced everything and interest rates will remain low.

    Dollar up, equities up and pressure on gold. This trade will reverse at some point.. How stretched it can go is beyond imaginable.

      Aug 07, 2014 07:47 PM

      I think the Fed will go through the full taper on schedule as well Glen. The next question will be when they will raise interest rates and if they ever unwind the assets they have been buying during QE.

    Aug 07, 2014 07:44 AM

    Oh learned people on this site…….could you list several vehicles for shorting the
    S & P. Thanks in advance…..

      Aug 07, 2014 07:49 AM

      The best option (no pun intended) is to buy SPY puts. As an alternative, you could buy a leveraged ETF such as SDS.

        Aug 07, 2014 07:17 AM

        I agree, SPY puts are best.

          Aug 07, 2014 07:58 PM

          I agree that you missed your plane today.

      Aug 07, 2014 07:15 AM

      You can short the Nasdaq with SQQQ (ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ) … I do.

      “The investment seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to three times the inverse (-3x) of the daily performance of the NASDAQ-100 Index. The fund invests in derivatives that ProShare Advisors believes, in combination, should have similar daily return characteristics as three times the inverse (-3x) of the daily return of the index. The index, a modified market capitalization-weighted index, includes 100 of the largest non-financial domestic and international issues listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The fund is non-diversified.”

      Brian

      Aug 07, 2014 07:19 AM

      Yes, the 3x ETF SPXS

    Aug 07, 2014 07:20 AM

    Here’s a familiar chart that continues to show GDXJ strength. As strange as the price action in different parts of the sector has been, it looks like next week could be a surprisingly good one.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p04677447105&a=359630743

      Aug 07, 2014 07:51 PM

      We will see Matthew. It is nice to see the MACD (12 starting to turn up as well as RSI breaking out of the downward trend but I am still skeptical of a huge breakout upward.
      Thanks for posting that chart. There is a lot to take in.

    Aug 07, 2014 07:22 AM

    US$ Index top is right around 82.6 where 3 different interlocking Fibonacci relationships each have key Fib levels. One of these Fib relationships goes all the way back to the Dollar top in 2001

    Aug 07, 2014 07:30 AM

    People always talk about dollar index. In an environment that all fiat currencies are depreciating, does it really matter which one wins a little? I simply don’t get it why people pay a lot of attention to this index unless they trade currencies. Dollar base expanded from $850Billions to $4.5trillions in 5 years. Is this more important than the meaningless index or not?

      Aug 07, 2014 07:34 AM

      Right. Do people realize that the dollar can soar against other currencies while it simultaneously plunges in real-world purchasing power?

      Aug 07, 2014 07:06 AM

      Here is an analogy of relative motion in Physics.
      Two persons jumped out of the Empire State building together. Person A wares a baggy cloth (reserve currency status) and the person B is naked. When person A reaches the 20th floor, the person B already reaches the 10th floor. Person A looks at his friends and saw him dropping quickly. He thinks “Hmmm…, I am rising so fast and very soon I am going back to 30th floor!”. Does he make sense?

        Aug 07, 2014 07:10 AM

        Sorry for the past tense errors. In this picture, gravity represents the “force” which pushes all fiats down – money printing.

          Aug 07, 2014 07:20 AM

          Yes, currencies don’t “float” against each other, they sink at different rates.

            Aug 07, 2014 07:26 AM

            Absolutely!!! Look at the long term, even Swiss Franc is down a lot against gold even it has RISEN(!!!) 5 times against the dollar. The different rates of falling are combinations of multi-factors ranging from internal to external factors.

            Aug 07, 2014 07:59 PM

            The way your ancestors sunk to all time lows when they invaded the New World.

            Here is the impact of your view that Jews stole land: Israel’s right wing political parties, including the Likud headed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, find their standing bolstered.

            Get it??

    Aug 07, 2014 07:31 AM

    GDX moving average positioning hasn’t looked this good in a very long time.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p87719385027

    Aug 07, 2014 07:57 AM

    Here, we have another familiar chart. I think I posted it about a week ago. It shows GDXJ priced in gold (GLD). It has tested support (blue lines) that I anticipated it would a little more quickly than I expected.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ:GLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p49784729897&a=361385756

      Aug 07, 2014 07:00 PM

      How about a chart of the deaths your family caused in North America???

      How many boys and girls were made orphans because of your great great granddady?

        Aug 08, 2014 08:30 AM

        jonny….please explain to this thick mick….just what the hell are you going on about.

          Aug 08, 2014 08:53 AM

          I am poing out the cowardl hypocrisy of Matthew, bb and Andrew de Berry (rev) who ALL acuse Jews of stealing Palestinian land or comiting genocide in Gaza while their WASP/Anglo/Scottish/Irish bloodline amcestors were complicit in the extermination of the natives of North America.

          They spread their lies like a trail of locusts while their bloodline invaded the New World like a trail of locusts of exterminated the natives.

          What is a mick? Scottish and Irish Immigrants were involved in the extermination and deportations to the worst land the WASPS could find.

          I do not like accusatory posts against Israel and Jews with no fact yet I have all the facts that their ancestors were genocide maniacs. Matthew and bb and Bob Moriarity are too gutless as is the REv; I think this Jew hating freak lives in the UK, to engage with me. I wish tht island would sink into the ocean for all their brutality and complicity in the extermination of millions of Jews, natives of America, Africa and China.

            Aug 08, 2014 08:26 AM

            J. Pally, I have said very little on the subject and disagreed with you on a specific point, yet you’ve decided to put words in my mouth and make assumptions about me.
            I have no need to “engage” anyone, and certainly not a nutter like yourself.

            ZEPHANIAH 2 & 3………………..a little history, might be in order for all to read.

    Aug 07, 2014 07:36 AM