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Tuesday market commentary from Doc

August 12, 2014

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Discussion
43 Comments
    Aug 12, 2014 12:11 AM

    Nice to hear Doc eat humble pie (publicly). He eats it more often than we know. As long as you are right more often than you are wrong all is good.

    Check out V.FMG if you are looking for a nice spec play with high risk/reward.

      Aug 12, 2014 12:21 AM

      Pete, gold appears to be reversing now—-I might have to put away the humble pie for awhile and settle for the blueberry one on my counter. The ballgame is still on.

        Aug 12, 2014 12:48 AM

        Noticed that right after I posted. Not sure what the delay was between when you recorded and the drop but it was instantaneous for me. FMG insider buying has been massive this year and they are on cusp of announcing some sort of deal. Again, high risk/reward.

        Aug 12, 2014 12:02 PM

        Heck Doc, blueberry is better anyway!

        Aug 12, 2014 12:35 PM

        DOC…..NO WORRIES..MAN!…LOVE BLUEBERRY PIE>>YUM!

      Aug 12, 2014 12:21 AM

      By the way, the chart on FMG looks awfully good at present.

      Aug 12, 2014 12:44 AM

      How big a bag of it are you holding, there, Peter?

        Aug 12, 2014 12:48 PM

        A lot. More than a 1,000,000 shares.

      Aug 12, 2014 12:01 PM

      Thanks Peter

    Aug 12, 2014 12:30 AM

    I have been more bullish than Doc lately, but the action has been mixed, for sure.
    When I see that the WSJ and Market Watch are suddenly in agreement with me, I get nervous (in this case, just short-term nervous).
    Things still look net bullish to me, but I won’t surprised if Docs expectations come through after all.
    http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/08/12/buy-gold-miners-not-gold/

      Aug 12, 2014 12:04 PM

      Thanks Matthew!

    Aug 12, 2014 12:59 AM

    Interesting how we all read charts differently. Matthew there is no doubt you and others put up great charts. The only difference of opinions is how one reads them.

    I respect everyone’s opinion as we all bring something collectively to the table. Im an young lad who uses old schoold charting with 4/5 indicators at most combined with currency/wti oil/ 10 year treasury yield and political/election sntiment. Overall my gut is what has always saved me in the end.

    I must be one of the only few along with doc,bird,jj “where ever he is” that sees no break out yet.. IMHO this is a bull trap. Don’t get suckered in unless your thinking long term 2 years plus. I keep saying this over and over, there is big money trapped and big players that need to see this head down one last time. 1277/1280 imo is 100% done deal. 1224 which is dallas’s call is a 75% in my books. Im more certain now then before that we need a final wash that rids every last bull there is. I can’t express anymore how i feel in such short words then capitulation that gary said few months back is a 60% in my books. 50% chance we retrace the breakout of 1050/1080.

    In conclusion im on the sidelines for trading purpose and fully in on long term portfolio. I believe we will get one last shot at unbelievable prices. Patience is tuff. If im wrong well we are all happy campers.. If im right then im a happy guy who saved some people money. Be patient they will knock her down once more.

      Aug 12, 2014 12:12 AM

      Glen…I still think $1280 will hold…….just my gut feeling folks.

      Aug 12, 2014 12:48 AM

      Yes, I’m still looking for $1224. For now. If it doesn’t break to there by 8-31, though, whatever low it’s put in by that date will probably be “it”.

      Aug 12, 2014 12:49 PM

      Thank you for the feedback. You obviously could be right, but remember that major lows are recognized as such by very few people. For example, check out GDXJ’s volume at the December low. Every big name was calling for $1,000 gold at that low. At the June low, right when I was buying juniors and GDXJ calls, Warren Bevan declared this: “Gold is in serious trouble and not something I’ll be looking to trade for some time, perhaps even many years as its bull market may be done now…There are places to make money and gold is not one unless you’re shorting it.”
      For the record, Warren is not a bad technician at all. I am just highlighting the fact that lows are difficult to recognize when they’re happening.
      I think GDXJ is heading for $55 next. The fact that I am uncomfortable saying so is a good sign from contrarian’s perspective.

        Aug 12, 2014 12:21 PM

        Right now is one of the most difficult markets for me to read in a long time. Some technicals are showing a yellow light and others a green light. Then you have silver moving lower and it often leads gold. In spite of the situation I’m starting to purchase some stocks I like even if we have a little more turn down coming in the metals. I’m confident in the long term picture. Besides, there have been some nice moves up for a couple of the stocks I own.

          Aug 12, 2014 12:56 PM

          I agree on each point. Stock-pickers in particular should be doing some buying here. Even stocks in the same sector don’t bottom at the same time.
          I think silver will soon lead gold and that GDXJ will again lead GDX (today, GDX finished up with about 4x GDXJ’s gain. Gold and GDX had to catch-up.
          GDXJ YTD: 33%
          GDX YTD: 27%

        Aug 12, 2014 12:59 PM

        Matthew,

        You’re calling for GDXJ to reach $55 dollars next week? Is that a typo? Today GDXJ closed at $42.61.

        That would be a huge jump in price and realistically that simply doesn’t jive with todays environment. I would find such a move in such a short period of time to be highly unlikely.

        But if it happens, I’ll be back to eat crow.

        Aug 12, 2014 12:42 PM

        Matthew,

        If your looking for a $13 dollar move over the next month or so in GDXJ, you must envision a nice healthy pop in gold soon?

        To get that much advance in GDXJ your probably going to need a $100-$150 dollar move atleast? What are your thoughts?

          Aug 12, 2014 12:38 PM

          For 2014, GDXJ has outperformed gold by about 4 to 1.
          Gold -December low to date: +11% YTD: +8.8%
          GDXJ -December low to date: +48% YTD: +33%

          $55 from here is 29% so maybe it will take gold moving up about 7% to $1400. So your estimate looks pretty good. Such a move would not surprise me at all.

      Aug 12, 2014 12:06 PM

      Maybe once more, but I personally will be surprised glenfidish!

      Gil
      Aug 14, 2014 14:45 AM

      Are you saying you think gold going back to 1280 at minimum?

    Aug 12, 2014 12:31 AM

    Irish now that’s a friendly wager! Gut vs gut :)..
    1277/1280 may just hold. We shall wait and see..

    Aug 12, 2014 12:10 PM

    Bo Polny stated yesterday that the summer low for gold is in at 1281.0 basis the December contract which was met on Friday, August 1st. http://www.gold2020forecast.com/clkn/https/drive.google.com/file/d/0Bywe0LES4bGiRFUzQ2ZnOHN4NjUxRGRrQTVpQVJUUDBiTDYw/edit?usp=sharing

    Aug 12, 2014 12:12 PM

    try this link for Bo’s latest public update
    http://www.gold2020forecast.com/

    Aug 12, 2014 12:51 PM

    There is just too much in the way of currency, financial assets and world economy relative to the quantity of gold and silver bullion and may be coin for the metals to be so cheap. Market prices are wrong!