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Gold is in a declining intermediate cycle

August 21, 2014

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89 Comments
    Aug 21, 2014 21:22 AM

    I guess Gary will stay on the sideline still.

    Aug 21, 2014 21:35 AM

    So much for Bo Polny’s summer low of $1281. He just got murked!!!!
    Thoughts guys? I guess he’s not going to be right on $2000 gold in 2014.
    http://www.silverdoctors.com/bo-polny-a-3-year-gold-bear-market-ends-a-7-year-gold-bull-market-begins/

      Aug 21, 2014 21:40 AM

      If you are still following Polny’s advice you deserve to lose money. I guess he has to up his subscription fee to $60,000. Maybe that will help him make more accurate calls. Gary, Rick, and Doc are far more accurate than him, and we are getting this all for free.

        Aug 21, 2014 21:01 AM

        Chris not really. Every call including decline bottom has been right so bashing him makes no sense until now i guess but we’ll see what he says about it.
        Gary agreed. I’m not crazy to buy any subscribtions. hehe

          Aug 21, 2014 21:10 AM

          Stewie, $2000 dollar call for the end of this year is not achievable, IMHO. We can barely hold any gains. Bo might be right, we might see his target by the end of this year. But until we break at least $1500, $2000 dollars is off the table. But he is not the only one throwing out head-scratching predictions- Bix Weir has gold at $10,000 by year end. Now that is plain ol’ crazy.

            Aug 21, 2014 21:14 AM

            My call for gold by year end is around $1400-1450. Now if something out of left field comes along and crashes the party, then all bets are off.

            GH
            Aug 21, 2014 21:43 PM

            Nothing personal about these guys, but…

            Have you read Weir’s Road to Roota theory? Interesting in a way, but far out for sure. Not where I look for analysis. And I’m resistant to considering Greenspan a closet hero.

            Polny. Seems to me he’s a competent chartist, who identifies likely turning points based on fibonaccis, trendlines, etc. and then proclaims it to the world as if its an absolute certainty. If it comes out right, he’s a superstar. A trader’s logic may figure the gain-to-loss ratio is favorable.

            Aug 21, 2014 21:44 PM

            Seriously Chris?

            I mean prognosticators are an interesting group.

            Ker tries to at least make sense!

            Aug 21, 2014 21:50 PM

            Big Al, I think once the taper is done, fundamentals are going to start to matter again. $1400 is achievable by year end. I also believe that the data they will be releasing in the future will show that inflation is slowly picking up, which will help gold (I know the data is fake, but I believe in the Fed’s attempt to show the economy is getting better, they will a light a fire under gold). I don’t believe the Fed wants to see a low gold price, because it will show that deflation is prevalent, and they don’t want that. That is just my opinion. Personally, I think the big gains are a year or two away. The only way I see gold reaching $2000 by year end is if the Fed loses control of everything, which is possible. But as of today, they have everything under control- the dollar is rocking, stock market at all time highs, Americans who are invested in stocks are happy. Bix Weir’s $10,000 is a little bit out there, and frankly I don’t want to be around if gold hits that price.

            @ GH……….did you hear Bix say……….HE THOUGHT the USA still had all it’s GOLD, and was being stored somewhere in the west…………

            but,,,it has been 10 or 12 years ago when I read it……….but, I agree with you on the Hype, but, when Donald Trump and he started running together……the hype really started………..

            the above statement is out of place….(should be posted down the page)

          Aug 21, 2014 21:42 PM

          Steele,

          WBy should any person waste their time bashing anybody?

      Aug 21, 2014 21:44 AM

      The problem is that everyone will just continue riding the uptrend in stocks as it makes zero sense to allocate money into any other sector while this bubble keeps building. Eventually a reason will exist to sell and that is when money will start going into commodities, metals, and other out of favor assets. If this bubble is anything like 2007 then gold and silver will start rising ahead of the stock market sell off. Long run you have to have exposure to stocks because if you don’t you will get killed….this uptrend could continue another 5 years without a major sell off…nobody knows.

        Aug 21, 2014 21:02 AM

        90%+ of the people around the world cannot invest in US market. It is wise to think about how other people behave.

        Aug 21, 2014 21:48 PM

        I happen to agree Ten year.

        We have a nice position there, but have not added to it since about 2009. Remember, Kathy and I believe in diversification!

      Aug 21, 2014 21:41 PM

      I don’t follow him. Should I?

    Aug 21, 2014 21:40 AM

    Making big wild predictions is great for selling subscriptions but more often than not they don’t pan out.

      Aug 21, 2014 21:34 AM

      Ha, ain’t that so. Stocks were in a parabola some two years ago in your book.

        Aug 21, 2014 21:56 AM

        ‘m not sure what you are talking about. In Dec. of 2012 I said stocks were about to enter the euphoria phase of the bull market, and they are still in it.

        http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/2012/12/euphoria-stage.html

        I continue to think the Nasdaq is likely to test the all time highs before we get a final top.

    Aug 21, 2014 21:56 AM

    Gary you have done pretty well for your subscribers.

    I don’t mean to tweet my horn but I have been consistent day in and day out on this site for quite sometime. Where is the appreciation lol.. Not even a thank you from al or cory.. Im still on the sidelines and my 1277/1280 has been confirmed. I continue to say the same things over and over to help anyone and everyone as to better price entrance. Hui will get filled 100% om 225.. It may even go lower to close down smaller gaps below. Everything is turning down and headed lower. Its the harsh reality. We will get great buying opportunitys in a week or two maybe three like doc has said.

    The more I think of it the more dallas who has also been consistent with his 1220 target may just happen. Im ready to deploy when i see the indicators show that.
    Always remember that charts don’t mean a thing when the mm’s and bankers can drop them at will to cover positions. We are close but not just yet.

      Aug 21, 2014 21:20 AM

      The relative strength in GDXJ I’ve reported on for more than a month still exists. I still don’t think we’ll see $1224 gold. I’m not yet wrong about the following…
      On August 5, 2014 at 10:40 am,
      Matthew says:

      …I think $1268-$1270 will hold.

        Aug 21, 2014 21:23 AM

        BUT, this corrective period has gone on a little longer than I thought it would. Nevertheless, great gains are still coming soon.
        Btw, do you think the huge 42 cent gap in SILJ will get filled?

          Aug 21, 2014 21:56 AM

          Matt which gap? can you give me precise numbers.. I see multiple gaps on the chart. I can say with confidence the first gap will be and should be filled. Not sure if that’s the one your speaking of.

            Aug 21, 2014 21:58 AM

            I’m talking about the huge one on the first trading day of the year.

          Aug 21, 2014 21:09 AM

          Ok here goes! Just remeber im no genie in the bottle. I feel comfortable enough to say hui 225 gap gets filledge and so does every gap above that large 42 cent gap you mentioned. If hui is broken passed 225 then all gaps below hui and including that 42 cent gap in silj get filled. This i feel very strongly about. That would put gold and miners into another 2 month contraction decline.

            Aug 21, 2014 21:29 AM

            In my opinion, it would be VERY bad technically if SILJ were to fill that gap. Luckily, nothing suggests that this is likely.

      Aug 21, 2014 21:51 PM

      Sorry Glen, not even a thank you to whom?

    Aug 21, 2014 21:07 AM

    Patience Patience Patience

    Aug 21, 2014 21:07 AM

    The weakness in the PMs and miners is cause for some concern here. I was of the thought that silver and the miners would at least test their prior monthly support (support before 2013’s breakdown). Silver anyway is acting like it wants to breakdown again.

    Aug 21, 2014 21:23 AM

    The five stages of grief

    We are all familiar with the five stages of grief.
    Denial
    Anger
    Bargaining
    Depression
    Acceptance

    These same stages of grief could be used to determine where you are in this GOLD BEAR MARKET.

    First there is denial.
    These are the people that keep clinging and hoping we are still in a bull market.
    They continue to think we are in a cyclical bear market within a secular bull market.
    They go back to charts from 40 years ago to delude themselves.
    They continue to think fundamentals matter.
    The gold and silver price is collapsing right before there eyes for 3 years now and they insist we are still in a longer term bull market.

    Then there is Anger.
    This is the stage when you look for someone or something to blame.
    Blame the manipulators.
    Blame the central planners.
    Blame the anti gold media.
    Blame anyone and anything rather than accepting the fact that an asset doesn’t have to go up just because you think it should.

    Then comes Bargaining.
    This is when you grasp at straws looking for support from other sources.
    People hang onto every word King World News has to offer.
    They hope Bo Polny will be right, as of anyone can be that lucky three times.
    They go in and out of moods as the SLOPE OF HOPE continues DOWN.
    They keep saying Patience. PATIENCE AND HOPE IS NOT INVESTING.

    Then there is depression.
    This is the stage when you realize you’ve lost a lot of money.
    You watch every day as the losses mount and you scratch your head wondering why gold isn’t doing what you think it is supposed to be doing; while all around you people are making a fortune in the GREATEST GENERATIONAL BULL MARKET IN STOCKS AND YOU’VE MISSED IT.

    Finally there is Acceptance
    This is the last stage when you realize the GOLD BULL MARKET IS OVER, WE COULD HAVE YEARS OF SIDEWAYS TO DOWN.
    Your analysis was wrong. You made the wrong bet.

    This is the stage I am at. I’ve arrived.
    I do not know where you are in this five stage process.
    But if you are a gold investor I guarantee you are still in one of them.
    And when I say gold investor I am talking about someone whose invested serious money, and a larger percentage of it.
    I am not talking about shills, trolls, wanna bees, subscription sellers, or paid to play experts.
    I am talking about people who put down big money. There own money.

    I stated a while back gold was in the Twilight Zone.
    I have to correct myself.
    I was in the Twilight Zone.
    Everyone who is still in one of these first four stages is still in the Twilight Zone.
    It is only when you get to the last stage when you can get back to reality.

    For the last few weeks every time gold was hit below $1300 it came back.
    I stated recently I thought $1300 could hold, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it did.
    The last three or four times it did.

    HOWEVER IT WAS CLEAR AFTER YESTERDAYS PRICE ACTION THAT IT HAD GIVEN UP $1300.
    Unable to muster any rally it failed to get close to $1300
    WITH THAT IS WAS CLEAR WE WERE GOING TO TANK TODAY
    AND MORE LOSSES LOOK IN THE CARDS.

    The WHITE FLAG OF ACCEPTANCE MUST BE WAIVED.

    I still continue to work on my children’s books and when they are finished I hope all of you would purchase a copy. I guarantee you if you have young children or grand children they will be delighted with the stories.

    I am also getting ready to get back into racing.
    I sincerely want to make money for people who lost a lot of money “investing”

    After being in this gold market for 15 years and watching stocks I AM CERTAIN THIS IS NOT INVESTING. THIS IS PURE GAMBLING. NO BETTER THAN A CASINO.

    For those of you who lost a lot of money in SAFE HAVEN GOLD, I feel your pain.
    You found out gold wasn’t a safe haven but a SPIDER’S WEB.

    For those of you who lost your life savings in stocks in 2008 and then with what little you had left decided to try gold, I feel your pain.

    You’ve been slaughtered.

    I’ve only lost time and opportunity. But it still stings.

    I am going to regroup, get my racing figures current and then reach out to people who want to try to make money the right way. WAITING FOR AN EDGE AND VALUE.

    For those of you who are opposed to this SAVE IT. I DON’T NEED YOU.
    STICK TO BEING DELUDED AND KEEP THINKING YOU ARE INVESTING.

    So long for now…

      Aug 21, 2014 21:43 AM

      James, the miners have delivered fantastic gains in 2014. If the miners don’t represent the value and edge that you’re looking for —especially in December and June, then you’re going to have a long wait.
      If the bears (reo!) would pop up here on a good day for gold, they might gain a little credibility.

        Aug 21, 2014 21:54 AM

        Matthew

        That is correct! This is something that many people seem to be overlooking when it comes to gold. True some (if not many) of the junior explorers are not doing so great, but many of the producers have done very well.

        Timing is everything when it comes to entry. I’ll stick with my TA for that.

          Aug 21, 2014 21:28 AM

          Yeah, I have had plenty of great moves. CEM.v is up 308% YTD and anyone who bought it a year ago when I said I liked it at .05 is up nearly 400%. CRJ.to is up 90% at the moment (after being up much more). My Primero warrants more than tripled this year. Several other offered big trading gains more than once, not to mention GDXJ calls bought near the lows.
          I sold some SLW puts and bought calls today along with a few SIL and SLV calls.

        Aug 21, 2014 21:24 AM

        I have already been through the 5 stages of grief for the PMs. I see many explorers and moose pasture owners rising in value, period. That is a fact, not emotion.

          Aug 21, 2014 21:30 AM

          Exactly, Dan, we can’t let past experiences cloud our judgment of the current reality.

        Aug 22, 2014 22:01 AM

        Matt the miners had a cat bounce from there lows in december.. We are still not out of the woods. Depends how you look at it. Yes from a trading perspective or investment having gone in in december low returned a profit but many miners are following back to those same lows as i speak. I would not confuse a cat bounce with a new bull until proven proven or better said confirmed. Ive seen to many bullish bugs “not that your one yourself” sing the tunes and get burned after. This includes me lol..

          Aug 22, 2014 22:25 AM

          The big rally last summer qualified as a dead cat bounce or short covering rally, but I completely disagree with the view that the rise off the December low was a dead cat bounce.
          The bull market is here and has already delivered massive gains —most of which have stuck. Yes, more confirmation will be very nice, but the bigger picture is clear.
          In this secular bull that did NOT end in 2011, I am glad I remained aggressive in accumulating the scary lows. It worked fantastically in ’08-’09 and it will (continue to) work even better this time.

      bj
      Aug 21, 2014 21:44 AM

      Put me in both the angry & acceptance stages:

      I accept the fact that the manipulations by the central planners will continue because there is great profit in it for the power elite. The Wall Street ‘banks’, our central bank, and by extension the IMF, are a global enterprise focused on greed, graft and corruption; that is what we have to accept because everything good or decent has been swept aside. The repeal of Glass Steagall was the final nail in the coffin for an honest market.

      Aug 21, 2014 21:59 AM

      It is a shame to say that after 10 years’ investing in gold and silver, especially, I am still in the first stage. I think I am slow and it may take another 20 years for me to reach the final stage. It might be the first time in history that paper beats the hard asset. Being able to witness this historic event is our honour.

      Aug 21, 2014 21:02 PM

      I always enjoy your comments The Greater!

      My only response is that we did really well in 2010 in the resource sector and have kept our gains. The money we have in the conventional markets has almost doubled since then. The Little companies we have purchased in the last couple of years are doing, for the most part nicely. But yes, we do have loosened. Fortunately the gains are much much larger.

      If you remember, I believe very strongly in diversification!

      GH
      Aug 21, 2014 21:10 PM

      I appreciate the comment James. But is this not the way that people feel every time they’ve ridden a cyclical bear to the bottom?

      One thing I’m sure of. Emotion is not the way to operate in the markets, and the 5 stages of grief is nothing if not an emotional process.

      It’s tricky to know if one is accomplishing being unemotional. But my best effort at cold analysis tells me this isn’t the time to bail.

      Aug 21, 2014 21:08 PM

      ‘james”? That has to be the best contrary post I’ve read in the past few days. It tells me we’re within days, maybe hours, of the final bottom in PMs. When someone pours their emotions into a paean the way you have, I know the pendulum has swung about as far as it’s going to swing. Thank you, thank you, thank you.

        Aug 21, 2014 21:48 PM

        “Reo” is also a great contrary indicator. He always shows up to complain near a bottom.

      Aug 21, 2014 21:38 PM

      Great piece! Long, long, long, but well worth the read. Well thought out, well written.

      The crux of the argument is if we’re in this Grief mode. No doubt, many many times I feel the same as you have.

      But remember the facts – 14 yrs ago gold was 300/oz. Then it went up for 10 yrs w/out much of a rest. So a longer rest is to be somewhat expected. Does it go up from here? I don’t know. But the $100T (that’s $100,000,000,000,000) in leveraged (100:1) debt is still there, and if it weren’t for 0% interest rates we’d be hosed. I don’t know if hyperinflation is next as Gary thinks, but I do think that all fiat currencies are out of sync w/reality (the DEBT), and that something has to REBOOT. When it does, I’m guessing that things like gold, land and oil will be part of the equation.

      I got you on grief and I really liked your piece, just also remember the facts that are true – $100T in debt, 7B people, over 1/2 in extreme poverty, money printed on pieces of paper – something’s going to give.

      Aug 21, 2014 21:37 PM

      That is why I switched to tech stocks months ago and it quite easy making hefty gains to make up all those massive losses over the years from gold stocks. No need to waste time watching the gold price. Just pick a strong company that has had big hit down and wait for it to stabilize and then buy in. You can get a 5 to $10 per share gain in a few short weeks.

        Aug 21, 2014 21:12 PM

        It is all about diversification, Paul L

        Aug 22, 2014 22:34 AM

        I do understand why people get wiped out in the long run. Most people start to follow the trend when the trend is mature and ready for the down turn. They routinely buy high and sell low. Pople are too weak to make their own judgement. Only people who can win are the likes of Warren Buffett and Rick Rule, who are not impacted by the market trend and focus on fundamentals. Most Buffett ‘s stocks were cut more than half after he purchased it. You have to have the will of steel to win. As long as gold is not going to zero, what are you worrying about?

          Aug 22, 2014 22:02 AM

          During the last three years, all the bulls who may surrender already surrendered. The ones left are far more committed. Do we have anyone here just given up last month?

    Aug 21, 2014 21:59 AM

    WHERE IS THY PATIENCE ????

    Peoples emotions ruin opportunities.

    Look at the coppock curve. This is a bottom not a top.

    We have a major move coming to the upside over the
    next few years. MAJOR MOVE !!!!! Patience……

      Aug 21, 2014 21:25 AM

      HH ! DAY LOOK TOO MUCH TV ! DAY WILL JUMP ! GARY IS ON THE IRAQ MOUNTAIN LOOKING FORE CHRISTIANS !

        Aug 21, 2014 21:32 AM

        Ha ha Franky…..thanks ….I need a good laugh.

        Franky…tell me to go shopping

        I really need to get out of here.

        Turn off the computers. This is bull crap….lol

          Aug 21, 2014 21:04 PM

          Go shopping Heavy!

          Aug 21, 2014 21:23 PM

          Hi Heavy,
          Did you you pre-order a Kennedy .9999 3/4 ounce Proof coin from the US Mint site, 50 year anniversary coin. Very nice.

            Aug 21, 2014 21:17 PM

            How ya doin …Keep Stackin…

            Hope you are doing well. No, have not seen that coin
            but in proof I bet its beautiful. Mucho nice !!!

            Jerry..ootb might have some comments on it. He’s proactive
            and I’m not any longer. However, I can appreciate numismatics
            even though my days have past for coin collecting.

            Hope your makin some ching out there. Last we discussed
            JNUG and that has done very well ever since. Options is not
            my bag I think we also hit on that too. Option players are getting
            smoked with sideways action in the gold market last several
            months.

            Uranium stocks right now are breaking out.

            KS……….the “tricky part is they look like ONE OZ. , BUT 3/4 TROY OZ….BUT priced as a OZ of GOLD………….HEADS UP………….

            I think some of the novice investor coin collectors will be tricked or confused into thinking they are buying an oz. of gold…., because the price is so close to spot.

            I believe the best gold commemorative ……..would be the 2009….MMIX ULTRA HIGH RELIEF GOLD …………..limited mintage……one of a kind in the series.
            It WAS suppose to be a modern version of the famous US 1907 Ultra High Relief.
            The value has already tripled from issue………….and will only go up……..

    Aug 21, 2014 21:12 AM

    Bargain priced Transocean at 38.52. Pays 7.7% dividend and close to 52 week lows. Makes around $5 per share 1.61 in last quarter. I am into LOCO too after a big fall it is becoming stable.

    bb
    Aug 21, 2014 21:28 AM

    just listened to a Jay Taylor interview, I guess some premiums are rising.
    More is being paid for physical than shares.
    I wonder if people will begin to think shares are fantasy.
    With a totally corrupt market, I can see people that want metal might start to want it in their hands.
    Physical price might rise quit a bit, but the shares could get to be priced less and less.
    Just what the interview sounded like to me.

      Aug 21, 2014 21:40 AM

      I have just read everybody’s comments…….I will make further decisions on where to place my money on JAN 1st 2015 – Here are my choices: PM’s, miners and energy; repeat: PM’s, miners and energy….

        Aug 21, 2014 21:15 AM

        Hey, sit tight and be right, I hope it happens before I seize up, sort of like ” The Tin Man” get out the oil can, I need a lube job. Follow the yellow brick road……………!

    Aug 21, 2014 21:59 AM

    My readings if correct see a big drop for the miners going into the close.. Then tommorow big gap down.

      Aug 21, 2014 21:32 AM

      Followed by a big gap up on Monday for a bullish island reversal? 😉

        Aug 22, 2014 22:05 AM

        I gotta say matt your very optimistic and that leads me to suspect that there are still more bulls then bears. In this site alone i find more bulls then bears. Bears=Glen, doc (50%), gary (on sidelines), dallas (1220 call, but seems more bullish as of late), bird amd jj ( go has gone missing in action).. Other then that everyone in here including al is bullish as far as the eye can see. Well i forgot cory who has been very good with his neutral/bearish call.

          Aug 22, 2014 22:56 AM

          The above is not a call, Glen, that’s why the “wink.” For weeks, I have just reported what I see one day at a time and you seem to be mistaking it for specific calls on my part. Note that my reporting on GDXJ strength has been correct and that you bears, so far, have not been timely with your expectations. Correct me if I am wrong, but didn’t you think the GDX gap would’ve been filled before now? Remember, I never said that it would not get filled. I just don’t let its existence alter my actions. It’s a big mistake to do too much anticipating when it comes to the small details, in my opinion.
          Meanwhile, I continue to trade the short term long and short side of things using options while leaving my smallest juniors alone.
          For some reason, I do not see the vast number of bulls that you seem to.

            Aug 22, 2014 22:08 AM

            Matt,
            I don’t recall giving a precise date as to when the gaps would be filled. I don’t trade the gdx or gdxj. I’ve been consistently harping about hui and 225 gap. Matt for the record I have been on the sidelines from my previous trades having gone out before cary a few days before. I got out on a plus and didn’t have any losses. Not sure about what timing your talking about. Now the miners are retracing including gdx and gdxy and they are going to be better buys in a few days. I know you never mentioned it would not be filled.

            For you it may be small detail but entering a position with 50,000 plus at 4 dollars when you can get it for 3 and change is a big difference on my books.

            I trade short and long. Im not a bear.. Im more of a bull with a level head. I try and keep things honest and not one sided.

    Aug 21, 2014 21:08 AM

    If you look at gold in GBP for example the chart doesn’t look so bad, not sure the recent move is any sort of game changer just a bit more noise…

    Aug 21, 2014 21:27 AM

    A sign of improvement for the micro-craps? I do not own any but is on an old watch list of mine.

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?AAB.TO

    AAB – Aberdeen International Inc. is a global investment and merchant banking company focused on small capitalization companies in the resource sector. The Company focuses on companies that are in need of managerial, technical and financial resources to realize their full potential; are undervalued in capital markets, and operate in jurisdictions with low to moderate local political risk.

      Aug 21, 2014 21:16 PM

      Nigel, Dan, Glen, Matthew, Machine Gun and all. We are devoting judgements of the Weekend Show to this subject.

      Be Interesting to see your comments!

    Aug 21, 2014 21:07 PM

    Is Gary on the Moon? Sounds like it..

    Aug 21, 2014 21:54 PM

    How can Obama bring in foreign workers when the employment situation is so bad, man is his own worst enemy. I don’t want to talk about technology but the only jobs left are those that Americans don’t want. That sounds silly but just think we still have a choice here the foreign workers do not. When Government can no longer hand out these jobs what will be left?

      Aug 21, 2014 21:24 PM

      Machine Gun,

      We will be talking about this with Congressman Walter Jones on the Weekend Shoe.

    Aug 21, 2014 21:08 PM

    I think Gary’s great, and that cycles are fascinating, but I beg to differ on the future price of gold.

    I think TODAY was a bottom.

    Pull up a 2 yr daily chart of $GOLD, and if you draw a trendline from Christmas to early June, and extend it, that TODAY gold touched it – and put in a bit of a tail to boot (not quite a hammer candlestick, but evidence of buying).

    Where will gold go tomorrow? Don’t know. No one does. But the TREND is still UP, since the Christmas double bottom, and the early June higher low. Looks like we go up from here. If we do break down, then I agree w/Gary that 1240 (early June low) is the next stop.

    Aug 21, 2014 21:27 PM

    The stock market has been very ragged, business sucks, we all know on this site that there is a period of reckoning ahead. If you have half a brain you would know that the stock market needs to have a readjustment to put itself into a reasonable position.

      Aug 21, 2014 21:12 PM

      Unfortunately none of that makes any difference to the Fed’s printing press.

      Fundamentals haven’t mattered for 5 years. All that matters is that the federal reserve notes being printed by the trillions have to land on something.

        Aug 21, 2014 21:10 PM

        Gold rises well before the money printing scam. Then when
        everyone has acknowledged all the money printing gold starts
        falling on the news. In other words, the smart money sells to
        those who thought gold would continue rising on the news.

        Its always been, buy especially before the rumor taking advantage
        of low prices or buy on the rumor but not on the fact.

        Once its been discovered as safe haven on the fact, prices are near
        the top or over priced nearing the end of that trend.

        THATS PRECISELY WHAT HAPPENED IN 2011. gold topped.

        The very reason I never invested in gold last 3 years until Dec. 2013.

        Stocks and real estate have now been discovered nearing a top.

          Aug 22, 2014 22:57 AM

          Well said. However, 2011 is not the final top since the printing continued. The money supply almost doubled after that. When the inflation starts to waking people up, they may have to get rid of their money quickly. The large amount of dollars outside of US will return as well, which is unique for the dollar. Then people either have to get consumers goods or hard assets in exchange for their dollars. A fantastic rise of gold and real estate may happen. Even stocks may benefit, at least in the dollar term. The inflation can only stop after interest rate is in the 1980 level or more. This process will take years if not decades.

          One good thing about housing is that you get consistent income every month.

            Aug 22, 2014 22:28 AM

            Thanks Lawrence. ….

            Gold topped in July 2011. Final high. The news was out and money printing
            continued but the market looks ahead. So therefore smart money exited.

            Gold could go parabolic based on your scenario but those are far from normal
            market action. Gold will continue to look ahead before any news.

            Real estate pays income however that’s not a free ride either. Lots of costs
            need to be factored in renting properties and inconvenience. If real estate
            is in a fairly good decline there goes your equity/capitol. The income is
            negligible at that point. Rents could falter too.

            HA….GOOD LUCK CHARLIE….. !!!!!!!!!

            Aug 22, 2014 22:10 AM

            2011 is absolutely NOT the final top. Market may look ahead but it has no idea what will happen in the future since it is a collective stupidity of the masses including professionals. People had no idea of QE 3 + 4 + 5 ….. Now market is expecting a deflation (in gold) and an inflation (in stocks, see P/E expansion). What is it? It has to be consistent. I don’t buy efficient market theory. Otherwise there will not be crashes even fluctuations. It should rise on a steady line. 10-20 years later, when money supply is 10 times of the current level, gold cannot stay this low. Not only QE increases the money supply, the low interest rate does the trick as well, in a slower and steadier pace. It is why gold increase from year 2000 since Greenspan implemented low interest rate and banks borrowed the money into existence. In a debt based money system, the money supply has to increase exponentially. Any attempt of shrinking it will bring a collapse. Mike Maloney summarized this very well.
            Gold (silver) firework is still ahead of us. BTW, the market is anything but normal now.

            As for housing, it is regional. I think it at least diversifies your investment. If baby boomers have less money to retire, they have to downsize or rent. So buying smaller houses or rental units might work if they are in a safe and convenient area.

            Cheers.

            Aug 22, 2014 22:18 AM

            BTW Heavyhitter,
            In the field of hard asset investment, Robert Kiyosaki makes a lot of sense. I did not understand him and saw him as hype. After listening to him many time I start to understand. I will ignore his Rich dad, poor dad stuff. It is pure promotion. I will stay way from his associates as well.

            I think the take away from Kiyosaki’s book is……….ownership…….not rentership

            Aug 22, 2014 22:23 PM

            I think his central idea is cash flow. You will get a lot of hits by googling this key word with his name. Thanks.

            Aug 22, 2014 22:35 PM

            Lawrence fully concur. However, it was the final top for that bull move.

            Gold will always looks ahead and an investor needs to be in positioned
            before the news. Rich dad stuff maybe OK but not taken in by any analyst.
            I know Rick R. so he is one of very very few.

            Housing rentals are lots of work at times. Paying property management
            firms washes out your profits and earning. Lawrence I don’t like to be
            inconvenienced. Not when you can make lots of gains in securites if
            you know what your doing by a click. Why work any harder than you
            need to.

            Cheers and thanks for the reply. : )

            We can all learn from each other but always found experience
            is the best teacher. No one listens anyway. Ha………

      Aug 21, 2014 21:19 PM

      Agree, Machine Gun!