Gold and oil may have put in daily cycle lows…possibly even intermediate cycle lows
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Way too much risk to be long gold here in my opinion just asking to get stopped out. The best play is long oil on week 1 of an ICL and to stay long equities.
I have to disagree. At least for the very short term, gold is a buy here. The daily chart is still mixed, but I think it will give a buy signal very soon, too. I think Gary is playing this right.
If you get stopped out, no big deal. If gold takes off without you, you have a problem.
The stop is very close so this risk is minimal. I like those kind of setups and don’t mi d taking small losses if the trade has large upside potential.
Gold is not a buy until it proves itself.
Now that, Bird, I do agree with!
Are you back James? How did the races work out? Summer goes way too fast then its back in the saddle for more punishment from the world of gold. I happen to agree with you here. More downside is ahead for precious metals. The optimism from the gold bugs is relentless. They always see a positive change coming no matter how many times they get beaten by prices. No objectivity at all. As usual they are trying to convince anybody who will listen to jump in before there is a break in one direction or another. All gamblers. Seems like a good way to go broke if you ask me especially as so many of them are leverage junkies. They just don’t get that waiting is risk-free. Hell, Gary even factors losses in to his gambles. Well I have an answer for him. The fastest way to make money in markets is to start by NOT losing any!
This is a different James because I’m not sure what you mean about the races working out. But I do agree with you about the metals. I was a bull for so long and now I just tend to trade the moves as I see them. For the most part I look to other areas though. There’s nothing that says you can’t make money outside of the metals. Not sure why everyone is interested in just trading miners and metals.
I, for one, am not James.
Based on the 60 minute chart, this looks like a great time (as in right now) for some SPY puts.
I guess I should have rephrased that to too much risk in missing out on profits in other areas. Look at palladium for example, continues to set new highs and completely diverge from the rest of the precious metals. And of course we have and ICL in equities and most likely an ICL in oil.
I have multiple trades in my own personal portfolio. Sometimes with deep in the money options so I can conserve cash for other investments. I’m covered in stocks oil and metals.
Oil looking really healthy here. Nice call, Gary.
Thanks MAD.
Gary first called the ICL @ 103.27 on 7/23 and then called it again @ 97.65 on 7/31. I’m not going to say nice call when he was very wrong 2 previous times. Anyone could have called that bottom today.
We stopped out quickly for a small loss on July 23. I don’t know who you are referring to on the 31st but I didn’t call a bottom in oil that day. I didn’t even cover oil in the nightly report that night and the interview with Al was with me and Doc and we discussed gold exclusively. I’ve been saying for weeks in every interview that I was waiting for a weekly swing before I would be ready to take another swing at oil.
“In a narrow market, when prices are not getting anywhere to speak of but move within a narrow range, there is no sense in trying to anticipate what the next big movement is going to be. The thing to do is to watch the market, read the tape to determine the limits of the get nowhere prices, and make up your mind that you will not take an interest until the price breaks through the limit in either direction. Don’t take action with a trade until the market, itself, confirms your opinion. Being a little late in a trade is insurance that your opinion is correct. In other words, don’t be an impatient trader. It is foolhardy to make a second trade, if your first trade shows you a loss. Never average losses. Let this thought be written indelibly upon your mind”. — Jesse Livermore
“Dont worry about catching tops or bottoms, thats fools play”. Jesse Livermore
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The thoughts and lessons from Jesse Livermore were never more important than they are today with gold and silver. I offer these quotes in response to the impulsive remarks I read on Docs thread yesterday where some were counseling jumping into the next gold trades before the market has made a decision. If one of the worlds best traders can advise caution under such circumstances after a lifetime of learning then we all have something to gain. We DO NOT yet know if gold will break up or down but if you go leveraged on a speculative bet that ends up going against you it could be extremely expensive. I do not therefore think this is a good time to acquire gold stocks. Let the market decide the direction first.
That’s just not the way I trade. I try to pick bottoms with my cycles so that when I enter I have very little risk. One can wait but then your risk is much greater as your stop is much further away, and there is never any guarantee that a breakout will turn into a trending move. On the contrary, most breakouts fail and that’s why most people lose money buying breakouts. They end up buying at tops and then selling at bottoms when the breakout fails to trend.
The single best strategy that I’ve found to make money and limit risk is to buy a cycle bottom with a close stop. This is the strategy I used with miners on June 5th. Again with stocks 3 weeks ago and just yesterday with oil.
If Putin is going into Ukraine in force he has to get in there before the harsh Ukraine / Russian winter sets in – so that is by late Oct / early Nov.
That means he has to go in round about now – sometime in the coming weeks – leaving him time to consolidate his positions before that end of October desdline. Once winter sets in no one will be fighting in the Ukraine till next Spring.
If he gets his timing right he can sit in Eastern Ukraine as it freezes over and then hold Europe hostage by threatening to turn the gas off.
The first two weeks of September will be an ideal time for him to make a move. In fact, a long weekend like this one will be a good one.
We only had a 10% position on our first swing at oil so no huge damage was done.
*Only*……ha ha!! Good one Gary.
Bird, a full position for some people is no more than 2% of their portfolio so 10% of that is only .02%…
“Manipulation Zone” = adolescent self-serving phrase
A subscriber of BIll Fleckenstein once sent a link to one of Savage’s blogs and BIll said as soon as he got to the word ‘manipulation’ he deleted it
Fleck was a director for PAAS for 15 years, knows traders in the gold & silver pits, he knowledgeable of the commercial hedging that goes on and is a 30 year veteran of short-selling, who has survived all & everything the Fed has thrown at the markets … on the other hand, Savage has notoriously & relentlessly blamed manipulation for the downward action in gold & silver since the most obvious of sell the news reactions to a Fed announcement … The big money unloaded into that like there was no tomorrow, onto dumb sheeple, and those who led their subscribers over a cliff like lemmings, would rather preserve their ego & feign correctness therefore blaming manipulation for bad and wrong calls
The reality of manipulation in the metals at this point isn’t even a question. It’s actually become public.
By the way are metals positions are up very nicely this year. One just has to take into account when and where the manipulation is likely to occur and be prepared at those levels. Case in point when it became apparent there were forces trying to hold gold below the high of the recognition day on June 19th of $1320 that was the signal to book profits and get on the sidelines.
no one can deny short term manipulation of markets, including precious metals, however not a chance any such manipulation can succeed over global market forces over the last 3 years, no to mention the fact the short-term upward manipulation took place in the metals as well while they were marching to their highs, yet I heard no complaints about that
and such short-term upward manipulation only made the downside action that much worse …. you should thank your alleged manipulators, for when they run out of ammo & time & interest, the upside will be that much more potent
Here is the article outlining each manipulation zone that has formed. One needs to be very aware of each of these if you are going to trade the metals.
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2014/08/manipulation-still-alive-well-gold-market.html
What I’ve found is that the people that still deny the obvious manipulation in the metals are either bears or they are unable to adapt to trade a manipulated market and instead choose to hide behind a buy and hold strategy.
that’s self-servingly ridiculous … conspiracy theorists unite! .. why are you not interviewed on metals conspiracy central, otherwise known as King World News?
there are many many undercurrents, cross-currents, cross-winds, head-winds, tail-winds, political forces, money flows, so on and so forth behind any market … to constantly whine & blame manipulation manipulation because your pathological penchant for making predictions that go up in smoke on a daily basis, is nothing short of childish, crybaby-ish and a loser-mentality, not to mention completely unrealistic to think that all sorts of forces & cross-winds, etc. are going on on a daily, weekly, monthly basis and traders have to read the tea leaves to survive & flourish
you can claim victory every day about a so-called manipulation but that does completely nothing for your gold & silver leaps as well as your subscribers that went to zero, not to mention all your other predictions that never saw the light of day, such as $50 loaves of bread by 2012 or 2013, $5000 oz gold by 2014, the collapse of the $USD, etc etc … sure they all may happen some day yet
Your manipulation theme song is so yesterday, irrelevant to making money and unbecoming to any successful trader to mention all the time .
“…and instead choose to hide behind a buy and hold strategy”. Care to explain to the throng what your Old Turkey strategy/recommendation was (and its results)?
Nice try but as you well know I never predicted $50 bread by 2012. The earliest a hyperinflation could arrive would be in 2018. And if you have listened to me you know that. So I’m guessing you are just pulling dates out of thin air since none of this was ever my analysis. Heck even Jim Rickards acknowledges the manipulation in the market and he’s about as respectable as they come. It’s simply statistically impossible for what happened in 2013 and continues to happen to be natural market forces. Plus position limits are not being enforced. Again just more proof of constant intervention in the metals.
And as usual you missed the point. We are making great money, and we’re doing it despite the manipulation. Actually watching for manipulation has gotten us out at almost the exact top three times in a row now. One just has to adapt to trade the market and expect the manipulation to occur and take advantage of it.
And absolutely no one ever went to zero following the SMT unless they were leveraged to the moon and anyone stupid enough to do that deserves to lose everything anyway.
We’re going to have a 30-40% year this year, maybe more if oil performs exceptionally well.
Gary, you most certainly did predict $50 loaf bread by today’s date, if not earlier .. if you did a search of your archives, I’m sure they’d be in there, among other way-off the mark predictions.
No one denies e.g. a so-called Fed ‘manipulation’ to keep stocks high, the economy growing, not to mention foreign central banks playing the same game, and all that has an effect on precious metals, that’s just part of this game. But on the way up, you never uttered a word about manipulation, even though hedge funds and other funds did whatever they could to juice gold & silver higher on a regular basis, hence the parabolic bust & long grind lower, which will all reverse, some day. PM’s can be mired in down-trends and then base for years & years before the next explosion.
If you are making ‘great’ money, I’m glad for you & your subs, therefore, congratulations.
How’s your ‘unmonitored chat’ going? Still unmonitoring it, KGB-style?
I suppose the selloff in this overnight is also manipulation?
Naming areas of time-consolidation and volume, ‘manipulation zones’ may be cute but it’s self-serving and ridiculous.
Didn’t Gary just get his leg fixed and he is already out climbing about on rocks?