Gold is dangerously close to a lower intermediate low
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Interesting CFS, as I am responding gold has reversed a bit to the upside!
Al, don’t fall for it! We are headed lower and this Glen has been saying this for quite sometime. Please mention me on the daily :).. My calls have been bang on..
interesting infographic on metals and when they will RUN OUT.
Old news Past Expiry….twice posted in this forum before!
This is new, however:
https://www.silverinstitute.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/SNAug2014.pdf
and the lead article indicates silver SHOULD be increasing in price.
It is interesting P.E.D.C.
Off Topic:
Saudi Arabia has announced the building of a huge fence along the border with Iraq. As ISIS continues to create mayhem and destruction in that part of the world, the Saudis must assume that their country is a potential major target.
I would suggest they evaluate the success of the Maginot line before wasting money and labor.
I’m not sure that a “huge fence” would do much at this point!
The Maginot line didn’t get a fair shake. They didn’t build it all the way so it only had to be gone around.
On the other hand, I can definitely see a fence keeping isis out of somebodies yard.
You have to be joking, bb
of course Im kidding, geez, people are “touchy” today.
Curtosey U.S. Customs and Border Protection
If you look at gold from a USD perspective it makes perfect sense.
As stated many times before 950 gold is about a .88 USD. Expect such as Ukraine, ISIS, Iran, IRAQ, RUSSIA drive capital to the US and the markets…..
Capital is running to safety thus causing USD explosion, gold is not dropping…….
Flat Earth thinking folks IMHO
At this moment in time I have to agree with you Ken.
There’s no way to figure out where gold would be if the dollar was .88 —simple extrapolation, it doesn’t work that way. The last time it was .88 gold was trading right where it is now, about $1250.
Look at the area between the green lines on the following chart, gold and the dollar can rise together. The dollar’s real value obviously moves inversely to gold; the USD index does not measure changes in real value except by chance. The USDX measures only the dollar’s value RELATIVE to other (shrinking) currencies. So… the USDX could get to 88 only because the euro is falling faster than it is, rather than because it is actually rising in real value.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=M&st=1981-09-06&en=today&id=p66934419175&a=366601998
S&P looks ready to take a 3% or so breather on the daily. Maybe gold will get a little pop from that this week.
A bad day today for metals and other commodities. Dan Norcini writes,
“It is therefore rather humorous to continue reading the various breathless emails in my box detailing one more nail in the coffin of the US Dollar. All the while the currency marches relentlessly higher! One wonders how many of these people peddling this stuff ever bother to look at a simple price chart.
Needless to say, the strong Dollar is making for an ugly looking gold chart and ugly looking gold mining share charts as well.
The volatile juniors are still up for the year but the chart is currently negative with the index trading below all of its major moving averages and with various technical indicators all in clear bearish modes. The index looks to be on track for testing the bottom of its range near 32.
The HUI failed to hold the gap on the chart and is also in a bearish posture at the moment.
Gold bulls had better hope psychological support at $1250 holds or gold will revisit key support at $1240.
The Euro continues to fail at one support level after another and looks like it is heading to 1.2800. The weaker the Euro gets, the more difficulty gold is going to have.”
why should anyone buy gold at this level? At least wait to it goes up a bit. I’d rather buy a little higher from this level than buy now and watch it potentially drop another 100 to 300 dollars.
Agree keylime
Good to hear you guys. Common sense prevails.
Remember, I am not saying never just saying right now.
My sentiments exactly. Let the market decide. We cannot know the future and even a bad outlook for gold could turn around. Cards are stacked against it right now though so I will bide my time and wait.
Gold break out has been fake. You buy at exact high point and wait to be shaked out later. I have given up buying break out long time ago. It is a trap.
Gary, I’m looking at the daily charts right now and seen that GOLD is oversold, S&P500 is overbought and dolar is overbought. We could see a reversal this week you think?
Gold is still early in its intermediate cycle so I’m not looking for a lasting bottom for another 5-10 weeks.
Stocks are just beginning a new intermediate cycle. They will have corrective moves but I’m not looking for a final top until the Nasdaq tests the all time highs.
Gary your correct..
The bottom is not in and we are midway through your bottoming cycle.
I remember you saying that a typical cycle runs 28-35 days? Can you remind us all how long a typical cycle like the current gold one runs and further how it works? for example is lets say a cycle runs 18 or 25 days. Does the 25 days imply that the cycle goes from a low to a high and back to a low in 25 days or a low to high in 25 days?
You talked about this 2 months ago but it’s a good refresher course. Please and thank you gary.
5% of investable income monthly to gold removes all concern about it.
I agree but would probably increase that number to 10%
I don’t get why everyone is so surprised. Back in May I was trying to tell you all gold would get murdered because the Euro was going to drop hard. My target then was Euro 1.27 and there is hardly any doubt we will see it. All very predictable. Strong dollar/ weak gold. It is why I had challenged Docs call for gold and miners to start rising. Whatever…..nobody really cares for opinions.
Bird,
Can you tell me who is surprised here? Certainly I am not. Otherwise, I will not be able to buy some gold/silver funds. I still have a lot of cash.
No you are wrong about nobody caring about opinion. Folks here are way to smart for that!
Al, there is nothing I would like better than the people who come to this particular site make the best market decisions possible and not get lost in all the hype that surrounds the dollar versus gold debate. I was really pleased to hear Cory coming on over to my camp. It has just been a better trade thus far and there is less anxiety. Why fight the trends? With the ECB in loosening mode a whole new set of possibilities are arising. The downside is that a strong dollar is putting pressure on our favourite commodities. All of them actually. But as I mentioned before, these new lower resource prices will lead to a burst of revenue improvements and quarterly profits next year so it is going to be another big boost for stocks. We will see a reversal in the profits being posted which will silence some in the gloom camp that stocks have peaked because bottom lines are suffering.
Cmon Bird,
I’ve always been kind to you and others. Your 1.27 call on euro is generous. You don’t want to know my call.
There are lower targets for sure. I agree with you there. Some are projecting parity before the two years elapses in the ECB MBS buying spree. There is a good chance they will be right but a lot can change between now and then so I don’t presume to project that far out on the trend line.
The markets in general look very very weak. If one recalls 2007-2008, oil, natgas, gold, silver, and all stock markets started to turn down at the same time as people rushed to cash….
Has the Fed lost control? If the margin clerks are calling then nothing, and I mean absolutely nothing, is safe.
People will be forced to sell their winners to pay the clerk and their margin debt…
Maybe time will tell, But something has changed,,,
“very weak”
Stocks are making all time highs. How hard does one have to squint to make that look negative?
Well… at least we are not faced with 50$ loaves of bread…
Congratulations to Gary for not mentioning his favorite word and caveat-excuse of “manipulation”, and he actually only discussed market action, market dynamics & technicals.
However, since he has been wrong about oil & gasoline, on his blog he mentions it must be the powers that be ‘forcing’ the price down for the upcoming elections. Therefore, as an experienced trader and experienced astute market watcher, you should have taken that into account in your trading-based decision-making, and not used it as a hindsight excuse when you’re wrong.
I really hate to hear the conspiracy and manipulation themes too. I quit listening to Gary because of it. Maybe it was wearing me down. He makes some astute comments otherwise so it seems a shame he wrecks it by repeating the same tired excuses over and over. Anyway, if it is true then why not just trade based on it and call it a day. If you can’t beat them join them!
Don’t worry,
I’m sure all the scribes that scream manipulation everytime Gold plummets by 15, 25, 30 bucks or more in one day.
Will also scream manipulation when the opposite eventually occurs as Gold rises by the same amounts in the same time frame. …..right ?
……oh hang on….LOL….they won’t.
yeah, exactly
For the record guys, I know you all are very smart/astute investors but im the official first on here few days ago to call for a tripple bottom! So i hope i get the credit if that indeed happens.
Please don’t accuse us of being smart. We are only arrogant. HH says God will punish one day for that!
Gold’s drop today was mostly selling in London, which is now over….so should hold for rest of today.