Oil and the conventional markets look better than gold right now
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LO^OKS LIKE THE SUPPORT IS IN………….
Silver is holding………….good sign……….Stocks down , gold and silver up……good close…..
Yes, bit of a bounce back today. I had been hoping to see sub 1240 and we came within 8 dollars but did not drop further. Otherwise gold looks like it might start heading back up so we will have to cycle again before she takes another run at the downside. The trend is still in a declining pattern though so no worries there (if you prefer it that way of course).
Actually I’m going to print this post and tape it to
my bathroom mirror reminding myself.
I will brainwash myself …..down..down…down..
Programming me until I’m….. ZOMBITIZED !!!!!!
NOT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ha..ha .this hot chocola’te I’m sippin on is tastin purdy damn
good after a great day as it was today. My constituents and Rick
Rule will not disappoint. NOT A FAT. ..F.ing CHANCE.
BE A FIRST !!
Funny, I was sipping a hot chocolate as I read that. We are on a chocolate kick over here right now. My wife is experimenting with peanuts and candy coatings just for the hell of it. She mastered the hard sugar coatings but is moving on to flavours with colors added. I just eat it all up as I am the test subject!!! True love for sure.
That’s exactly why I said that ..
HOT CHOCOLA’TE !!!!!!!!!! I knew you were on to it….
Its good stuff. I like pronouncing it like above.
People ask what you doin…sippin on a hottie CHO…COOO..LAAA.TEEEEE
HA…HAAAAAAAAAA happy your enjoying yourself Bird.
The candyman treats sound like fun..
Just make sure you floss and brush right after.
You know themm…dental office visits…
Not even the money its the inconvenience and pain.
Tell the Mrs. ….call her your sweet wife.
Give her a …..BIG HELLO….
Big Shout …..OUT THERE…..
Tell her I might be a SOB but my bark is bigger than my bite.
I was an only child and a orphan…..ha…haaaaaaaa
Now back to sippin on that …HOTTIE…..wink…wink….
SILVER …..did not hold……….and the gold is down again………….hum………
Sideline time Jerry!
Buy time in my opinion.
I am well set for the rebound…………
Just in time for the swing low of the day and new daily high at the close
Thank you Gary for all your cycles time frames. I’m assuming you have learned those cycles theories somewhere. What book/materials can i read to catch up somewhat to you? Or what have you read that reflects most of your cycles?
Also reason i’m interested in those cycles is same cycles as yours projected by Bo Polny. Now i realize 90% here will discredit him here but i’ve noticed his cycles concide with Gary’s with exception of interpretation of them. His interpretations are more aggressive. But it’s very interesting. Gary any thoughts on his interpretation that this cycle must and WILL hold $1240 and $1180 will ABSOLUTELY WILL NOT BE BROKEN. LOL. Jim Sinclair last night reaffirmed his stand also that 1180 will hold and we are already in bull cycle (NOT UPTREND) confirming what Bo said. In case some don’t follow Jim or Bo. They’re both in synch with their calls and Sinclair often posts Bo’s charts on his website.
Bo Call from 9/8/14
http://www.silverdoctors.com/bo-polny-2000-gold-next-stop-7-year-gold-cycle-targets-5000-333-silver/
Jim Sinclair – 9/8/14
The Ups and Downs Of Gold Cycles
Posted September 8th, 2014 at 1:29 PM (CST) by Jim Sinclair & filed under General Editorial.
Jim Sinclair: “My Dear Extended Family,
Cycles are best understood as probabilities for directional movement. Those gold cycles that turned down at $1900 have now turned up with the price of gold now plumbing previous lows which are by definition major support.
The price objective once this experience is over is $2100, and is where it will trade in time.
I can only imagine what a deluge of emails this will bring from the Gold Internet Trolls.
Respectfully yours,
Jim”
Anycase. Gary your thoughts on cycles from Bo and how does his interpretation differ from yours. I’m just curious as i want to account from different perspective as you both use cycles. Also what material i can learn your cycles from. Again thank you Gary and Doc and Al and Cory. Thanks.
yes……a good read………….
I think a lot of people underestimate Sinclair………., this guy was in the enter circle before, and knows what is going on……………
Sorry Jerry but Sinclair is a snake unless you want to die with your gold.
He pumps gold at the highs and the lows 24/7/365 into eternity.
HH……..I do plan on passing along some of the gold………..not going to deplete all resources before it is time…………..if, you know what I mean…………………..cheers, thanks for the advice…………………………………ootb
As do we Jerry!
I really don’t believe Jerry depletion of resources is an issue
because when the stuff deflates into a long bear market not
a desirable outcome.
Got to know when to hold em and when to fold em.
Especially precious metals. It can be horrible. Like now.
Look at the 80’s and 90’s. In the poor house.
Next 5 years is good and probably going into long bear market
after that.
For me I would not fall in love with that stuff.
can not fall in love with any stuff………..agreed.
Notice I did say “some”…..that will be the seed, for the next go round…….the future will have it’s ups and downs,….. unless the end comes quick, ………….
I would agree.
Big relaxed Al from sunny central Oregon
Yes Jerry you did say some.
Two thumbs up on that one.
Google Walter Bressert
Gary if you don’t mind can you kindly explain the following,
1. When did this current cycle in gold top?
2. What day are we on?
3. How many more days/weeks left in this cycle?
4. Lastly you mentioned in the past but can’t remember does the cycle start low, go high and end low within that cycle. For example 1250-1280-1250 which would complete a cycle and vs versa a top 1280-1250-1280?
Sorry for the questions but it’s very important to touch upon your cycle work from time to time and let the viewers here including myself refresh.
Thanks in advance gary
Glen,
The intermediate cycle topped on July 10th.
Day 12 of the smaller daily cycle.
Average duration trough to trough for a daily cycle is 18-28 days with most bottoming around day 22-24.
Cycles are measured from trough to trough. Cycles are mostly worthless for calling tops.
Thanks Gary!
Today would be day 13 and counting..
When the last uber-bear becomes a bull;that is when they will pull the trigger.Do not fall prey of the wolves of wall street.
Interesting statments from goldfinger himself and his side kick. Those statments will be printed and going on my fridge. lol. Seriously!
Also interesteing statment on gold 21 year old cycle. Gary is there 21 yr old cycle or is that just Bo?
Bo Polny: “Will Gold ever see $1180 or lower? Absolutely NOT!”
Bo Polny: ” The 21-year Gold cycle dictates the final summer low MUST remain ABOVE $1240″
Jim Sinclair: ” Those gold cycles that turned down at $1900 have now turned up with the price of gold now plumbing previous lows which are by definition major support. The price objective once this experience is over is $2100″
He SOOOOO solid with his call that: “These are the Final Summer Lows. Whether you believe or not believe, that is your personal choice; but TIME will expose the truth just as it has since the May 2014 interview and you will soon see that these prices WERE in fact the Final Summer Lows as forecasted in the May 2014 interview!
Flip side to the bull coin here is bearish scenario outlined in charts guys.
I found his calls are missed more often than not and he’s 100% chart based guy.
Potential Precious Metals Meltdown Scenario by Rambus
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1410268151.php
This article also confirms Bo Polny’s stand that $1240 must hold or bye bye Gold.
Gold’s Last Stand
http://ceo.ca/2014/09/08/golds-last-stand/
Gary can you comment your thoughts on this large triangle being broken now?
http://ceo.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Gold_Bear_Engulfing.png
This article also confirms Bo Polny’s stand that $1240 must hold or bye bye Gold.
Gold’s Last Stand
http://ceo.ca/2014/09/08/golds-last-stand/
Gary can you comment your thoughts on this large triangle being broken now?
Bob Moriority: “Blood in the Streets – Sep 9, 2014
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty090914.html
According to Investopedia, the original quote from Baron Rothschild read, “Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.” I highly suspect that’s how gold investors feel right now; the blood is their own. The article goes on to suggest that is the heart of contrarian investing. I happen to agree. I’ve never seen so many great stories selling so cheaply. Gold share investors have given up. That’s a good thing.”
IF YOU are raising a herd of beef,,,,,you do not kill the bull……..uncle Wally 1988
Wait for more evidence before jumping onto the bandwagon.Atm gold is flirtring with the support trendline drawn from 2001 lows and if breeched then the worst is yet to come for gold.The chances ares 50-50 eventough I am more inclined to the bear scenario considering that stock market are at nose bleeding heights.If stock market correct the usd which many still consider as a safe haven currency will get stronger and commodities cheaper.1240 MUST literally hold.
Things are not going according to Hoyle.
Gold bugs continue to scratch their heads and wonder why their beloved investment is not $2000 an ounce or more right now.
Now even Bo Polny, who many gold bugs are putting their last bit of hope in, is even back peddling to save face and his own skin.
Janet Yellen threw everyone a curve, not being the ultra dove everyone expected her to be.
Gold now on critical support as the bears are loaded for bear and ready to break $1240.
This is what a bear market looks like.
We haven’t even gotten to blood in the streets
Truth in that James. We have only seen frustration, anger, regret and disappointment so far. But figurative blood in the streets still eludes us judging by how many folks out there are still pumping bullish gold commentary. When every decline is met with incitements to buy, buy, buy we can be pretty sure the desire for the glorious Halcyon days of gold have not yet burned out. And that can only mean one thing….more declines are ahead. The last of the bulls will be silenced before this is truly over.
Young buck stock brokers are taught one thing – it’s always a good time to be in the market.
This is the one thing drilled into their heads – their clients must be in the market.
It doesn’t matter if it is a bull market or a bear market, they must get you in the market.
And why is that?
Think about it.
If stocks go up and your broker kept you out of the market, you would not be happy with him at all, as you lost an opportunity to make profits.
There’s few things people hate more than watching all their friends make money while you didn’t.
Now the flip side…If stocks go down and your broker kept you out of the market, you would be content, but you would still have your money, not your broker.
Also the feeling of not making money when you could have is stronger than the feeling of keeping money. So it is a lose lose proposition for your broker.
Hence the siren call is always and everywhere “It”s a great time to buy!”
Bull market – “You have to be in to make money!, stocks are going up!” They scream.
Bear market – ” There’s value in the market, now is the time to buy! They scream.
Same old story.
Now where I once thought this scam was limited to stock brokers I now realize it applies to all shills and cheerleaders whatever they are pushing.
Stocks, real estate, gold.
Doesn’t matter. It’s always a good time to buy!
I wish it were true
It is not a good time to buy gold, hasn’t been for 5 years, might not be for another 5 years.
Swallow that pill
You got it jimmy!
Gold is being flanked by two very important trendlines which are the supporting trendline from 2001 lows and the resistance trendline from october 2012.Momentum is building and the burst to either side is gonna dictate the future of gold.Technical indicators are still bearish however I am not excluding a final rally to 1300 from current position to end up this consolidation pattern that has been forming from june 2013.
I had mentioned gold would hit the 1240’s a few days ago. It looks like they will take it down to around 1200 soon.
Problem solved.
Put your blinders on for a few months. CHECK
Turn of all your computers. CHECK
Return here and thank me New Years as gold recovered
handsomely.
Again, problem solved !!!!!!!!!!!
Golds support is always whatever the current price is…it can hold its own on its own.
And when the banks cover their huge short positions.
And when we get a catalyst and a shaker type crisis. (not there yet)
And when the petro dollar finally gives up the ghost.
AND ITS GOING TO BE A BIG SURPRISE WHEN IT ALL HAPPENS.
and thats all folks….go lay your head on a soft pillow and close your eyes
its going to be OK. Maybe go have your fortune read. You may discover
big fortunes are coming soon. Just get comfort, encouragement and rest.
If I had to say one thing about living in Africa that probably has the most impact on my day to day life I would say it all revolves around food and water. Since I have come here I have experienced innumerable problems with parasites from improperly cooked foods, amoebic dysentery, water sanitation issues and even food poisoning on several occasions. And I am very careful as a rule. My experience is not unique though and most other Westerners I know here have suffered similar problems if not worse. What I have discovered is you absolutely must control all your own meals, cooking, food and sources of clean drinking water from the outset. Unfamiliar bacteria, water borne cysts and parasites lurk throughout the food chain. Salads are not safe. Sauces can be deadly. There is far too little refrigeration all round. Food preparation in restaurants is poor to abysmal if not downright frightening at times. What we all consider as normal is not normal here at all and education levels regarding food safety are quite poor while myths and wives tales prevail strongly about most aspects of food preservation and cleanliness. Sanitation is deeply lacking and toilets are probably amongst the worst on the planet. You actually fear touching any door handle, tap or counter top after awhile. Clinics and pharmacies appear as sources of great danger. Every meal is eaten with some hesitation when it is not your own and after awhile you begin to question everything to the extent you start to look in on kitchens before even agreeing to order off menus. I would only say to anyone coming here to live and invest to take exceptional precautions where food and water are concerned and to eat out as infrequently as possible.
Did that scare anyone? After rereading my post all I can say is I heartily endorse what I just wrote. I never even discussed the worst aspects either and it is still a disturbing tale of food scares and daily health risks. Eaters beware!
Educate on the important stuff Bird….
….like whats the beer like ?
Funny you ask that Skeeta. I am a beer lover as you know. My favourites back home were the tried and true tastes like Canadian and Kokanee. The weird thing is that they are using the almost identical recipes here. I cannot tell the difference between a good German beer nor its local African equivalent most times or between a bottle of Canadian and the most popular local fare. But that is because the beer companies are mostly global multinationals. So in fact, most of the best beers are actually produced by offshoots of major parent companies from the US, Britain, Germany and elsewhere in Europe. I would say that of all industries other than soft drinks, it is the beer makers from teh West that have made the strongest inroads into local markets. So yeah…..you will like the beer. except in too many places they still serve it warm because smaller establishments cannot afford fridges and coolers.The really nice thing is they cost less than 50 cents a bottle. If you can get through five bucks worth in a whole night you are either is rotten alcoholic or you threw most of it away because it was too hot!
Thanks for all the insights.
Anytime Skeeta. You really ought to come over here for a visit if you are young enough and energetic to be a two week tourist. There is something very extraordinary that is taking place that is at odds with everything you may hear on the nightly news.
Africa is booming. It is bucking the global deflationary trend and it is rock and roll time.
East Africa in particular is now the recipient of billions upon billions of new investment dollars and jobs pledged by countries all over Asia, Europe and the Americas. Just last month for example, Israel has committed two billion in new investment dollars into Ethiopian agriculture, potash, fertilizer and manufacturing.
A small, almost unknown company Canadian company called Allana Potash is the recipient in one case and it also has World Bank support via the IFC to produce potash for export but also to create a local African source of fertilizers which did not previously exist. I am very optimistic about that companies futures and we can note that this is the first foray of the World Bank directly into the mining industry.
I am not making this stuff up. With the investment weight of Israel Corporation (ILCO) making a 600 million dollar additional investment in Allana’s Potash play the odds of success grew significantly. The news is now getting somewhat stale and it is obvious to me investors remain blithely unaware of the forward momentum that exists for this company but it is worthy of note for interested parties as share prices still remain subdued.
But many more options exist in East Africa than just that one. The real activity seems to be in shoes, leather products, meat processing and garments. In that regard you need to get to know the Chinese companies who are leading the charge. In my small rural area where we had just a few thousand people when I first arrived, is now populated by many thousands of workers for the new plants and activities that are springing up like desert roses.
I cannot simplify this any better than just stating the obvious. Capital is flowing in large quantity even as manufacturing is suffering in most other high priced developed nations (including China). This is just the flip side of recession and deflationary forces in the West. The capital just moves to where it has more impact and upside opportunity.
I am talking about how money really moves from one region to the next and that cannot be discussed in terms of broad based ideas about how emerging markets are faring against the rest of the world because some (ignored) pockets are still incredibly successful currently despite the gloom that persists for the groups.
Over her it is fair taxes, cheap labour, incredibly dirt cheap electric costs, low administrative expenses and a fraction of Western regulatory burdens that are drawing in bidders. That is why money is coming here from across the globe even as business withers under serious stresses in the West.
I assure you, most mortal investors would be stunned by this active business environment. It is simply off the charts in terms you all understand. GDP is above 10% here. Inflation is running at high single digits. Competition in most industrial and consumer categories is still very low. Land is stupidly cheap for foreign investors. China has taken the lions share of easy pickings so far but lots of room exists for muscle to take it all back.
So come and see it if you have youthful energy and a pocketbook. You won’t be disappointed. I won’t say it is easy though. The bureaucracy is deathly slow and complicated and the African state of mind is such that everything can be put off until tomorrow. Totally Maddening for movers!!!
But that is how you make money I suppose. You need to be patient and adjust to the climate.
Anytime Skeeta. You really ought to come over here for a visit if you are young enough and energetic to be a two week tourist. There is something very extraordinary that is taking place that is at odds with everything you may hear on the nightly news.
Africa is booming. It is bucking the global deflationary trend and it is rock and roll time.
East Africa in particular is now the recipient of billions upon billions of new investment dollars and jobs pledged by countries all over Asia, Europe and the Americas. Just last month for example, Israel has committed two billion in new investment dollars into Ethiopian agriculture, potash, fertilizer and manufacturing.
A small, almost unknown company Canadian company called Allana Potash is the recipient in one case and it also has World Bank support via the IFC to produce potash for export but also to create a local African source of fertilizers which did not previously exist. I am very optimistic about that companies futures and we can note that this is the first foray of the World Bank directly into the mining industry.
I am not making this stuff up. With the investment weight of Israel Corporation (ILCO) making a 600 million dollar additional investment in Allana’s Potash play the odds of success grew significantly. The news is now getting somewhat stale and it is obvious to me investors remain blithely unaware of the forward momentum that exists for this company but it is worthy of note for interested parties as share prices still remain subdued.
But many more options exist in East Africa than just that one. The real activity seems to be in shoes, leather products, meat processing and garments. In that regard you need to get to know the Chinese companies who are leading the charge. In my small rural area where we had just a few thousand people when I first arrived, is now populated by many thousands of workers for the new plants and activities that are springing up like desert roses.
I cannot simplify this any better than just stating the obvious. Capital is flowing in large quantity even as manufacturing is suffering in most other high priced developed nations (including China). This is just the flip side of recession and deflationary forces in the West. The capital just moves to where it has more impact and upside opportunity.
I am talking about how money really moves from one region to the next and that cannot be discussed in terms of broad based ideas about how emerging markets are faring against the rest of the world because some (ignored) pockets are still incredibly successful currently despite the gloom that persists for the groups.
Over her it is fair taxes, cheap labour, incredibly dirt cheap electric costs, low administrative expenses and a fraction of Western regulatory burdens that are drawing in bidders. That is why money is coming here from across the globe even as business withers under serious stresses in the West.
I assure you, most mortal investors would be stunned by this active business environment. It is simply off the charts in terms you all understand. GDP is above 10% here. Inflation is running at high single digits. Competition in most industrial and consumer categories is still very low. Land is stupidly cheap for foreign investors. China has taken the lions share of easy pickings so far but lots of room exists for muscle to take it all back.
So come and see it if you have youthful energy and a pocketbook. You won’t be disappointed. I won’t say it is easy though. The bureaucracy is deathly slow and complicated and the African state of mind is such that everything can be put off until tomorrow. Totally Maddening for movers!!!
But that is how you make money I suppose. You need to be patient and adjust to the climate.
Sounds like a reliable electricity supply for both industry & home (refrigeration etc) would turn where you live on its head from where it currently is….but that would only be a start no doubt.
Once they finish building all the dams that are on the books this will become one of the most electrified places on earth. The whole of East Africa including Egypt, Sudan, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Ethiopia and Djibouti (and maybe even Yemen) is about to be lit up in two years time. And the cost of power is absolutely stupidly the lowest per kilowatt hour on planet earth.
Amazing eh? Who could have known? One of the biggest dams on earth is right here in Africa.
And if I may, let me put a fine point on the discussion above. Life expectancy in Africa is the lowest on earth. Averages barely exceed 50 years for the continent and it is not entirely attributable to HIV, Malaria, Yellow Fever and Tuberculosis. There are deep and more persistent sources that the medical system here is not always capable of addressing as more serious worries capture the bulk of their attention. As a resident for many years now I strongly advise anyone coming here to exercise extreme caution with food and water. If these are not your strong points of knowledge then it is probably just better to stay home because you will suffer illnesses on a predictable basis.
I’m scared to death. Very knowledgeable and highly informative.
Good information. Beaches are 300 miles away from Nairobi
and notice its not cheap living. 5 star hotels expensive. The have
good fitness facilities there. Real estate in the capitol not cheap.
Maybe in the surrounding country sides dwellings are cheap. Crime
looks to be contained but its not that desirable. Spotty I guess.
You can get by if your wise. Get home by sunset.
Thought I would venture into why your living there Bird. Maybe
the country sides offer something. Or its it the gorgeous bunnies
running around.
I guess your happy there anyway. Thats what’s important. Not
so sure its your best kept secret. Maybe a hidden agenda there
and maybe not. Unique life though compared to here. Adventurous
and romantic. Could be perilous too. Anyway…………………………..
I learned it all the hard way. Sadly to say you are right about Kenya where safety is concerned. At night the rule is becoming no stopping for red lights (like South Africa) and theft is epidemic in some areas. Not so much due to mere poverty but rather to fairly deep resentments mixed with opportunism. But life is good otherwise. You can adjust and most people are still good. Most big North American cities are still more dangerous in my opinion.
I am glad that I live in a fairly safe and stable country Canada. The safety concern is almost non-existent and medical facilities are good and convenient. However, my complain is the back pain and neck pain caused by cold weather. I have been to three continents so far, North America, Asia and Europe. They are more and less in the same level. There are more diseases in China but people seem to live very long. The most unsafe place I have been seems to be Italy. I am entertaining the idea to live outside of Canada when I retire but I seems not able to find a place warm, safe and cheap. Well, I still have a lot of time to choose I guess.
Australia minus the cheapness lol.
I don’t know anywhere in the world where it is cheap now. The dollar must be pegged to every country. Everyone is inflating to keep up.
Australia is super expensive as I heard people talking. China used to be cheap and it has changed completely. I remember that I could send to my parent a few hundred dollars and it was a lot of money back then. Now most stuff are in the same level except some daily use stuff. I am no longer be able feel rich when I travel back there even my salary is up 6 times in the last 20 years in Canadian dollar term. Only thing I can bring back is luxury items like French perfume, cosmetics, and wine, etc. But they are expensive for me too. It becomes harder and harder to select gift for friends and relatives, but I have to do it since I am supposed to live in a rich country.
Interesting enough, Kathy and I are currently spending a week in Oregon. We have already noticed it is much cheaper than Washington. Gas is a big difference.
The Coachalla Valley, Lawrence. Among other reasons mostly Canadian!
Is it beside Palm Springs? I have been there and it is quite a desert look. Do they have water problem in the long run?
A lot canadian like Pheonix. It is like a furnace.
One of my young Son’s managed to pick up a stomach parasite whilst on a holiday in a 3rd world country.
Nasty one that caused him much stomach pain after we’d arrived home.
Took the doc’s a while to identify the problem, then several courses of antibiotics later he was finally rid of it. Even then his discomfort continued for a number of weeks later….eventually the discomfort eased then went away completely.
Well Matthew…
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