We have a new lower low for gold, where to now?
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Because all those retired people are so dangerous? You are talking about Fort Lauderdale right? Why in Sam hell would they need attack helicopters there? For when the air conditioning goes off maybe?
They built more than all the services could use, so now its the police that get them, then the fire dept, then ems and the boy scouts.
Weapon pork, $ for war industry?
Planning on an Orwellian State?
In my opinion Gold is a beautiful short and has been for the past 3 years. Trying to pick or scalp bottoms on a 3 year downtrend has to be frustrating.
GIVE UP on the PMs. Done, over, finished.
They had a 10 year bull run, just like back in the 70s, and now it’s OVER!
Get ready for the next bull in PMs…. starting in 2030.
Joe stay around you are a good barometer………..what is your background…not trying to be smart, just wanting to know for the records……..who knows maybe, you are correct and BIG OWL will give you a spot on the forecasting. You have to build a reputation starting somewhere,,,,who, knows you might be right……….Us poor LONGS are eating yesterdays cake. BUT, since, I have my bulk at much lower prices I think I can Stand some more pain………….Only, pain when you sell, at less than PURCHASE PRICE………Opportunity knocking. ……..BEST ………OOTB.
Its a known fact…bloggers will make you rich.
Just like the markets they always make people
rich.
Hmmm…maybe thats why everyone is so rich.
Right Big AL…umm yuk sooo man..uh…u tink…or ru off duh chain
Again !!!! dribble..dribble ….
1980-2000 is caused by high interest rate and low money printing and now we have ZERO/NEGATIVE interest rate and worldwide money printing. The fundamentals are nightand day. Only thing in common is vicious price suppression.
Seems no one in the opposite site ever answers my questions.
What was the question?
Sorry, other places.
Joe you and Harvey Organ should get together – you might agree to disagree but then start talking a bit more sense.
Busted man! Silver finally broke through the bottom. If it is leading gold we should now anticipate a retest and break below the lows that have held since June 2013. Looks like its all over but the crying now and I am totally vindicated in my position to hold fire and not buy anything until a firm signal came.
Oh God….
I drew the right conclusions from the information that I had. What more do I need to say? It is hard enough getting it right on any market at any time as trades often go against you no matter how well you thought you knew what was coming. So I did well here. We broke that major support on the current down cycle. I am happy about that.
Just remember its never over in this business.
You did good on this down move in gold.
You’re now up for a gold metal and guru status.
Now you need to get serious and maintain it.
Then its easy to form your own cult.
They don’t give medals here so we don’t get decorated. I have learned to just enjoy my own company.
Thats hallerious.
Uh ha ha ha. No, I thought they did.
At least you act like it reminding everyone several, if
not multiple times a day.
Oh, I’m sorry maybe its the jungle that makes people
delirious.
I’M SORRY !!!!!!
I am only countering your “gold is in a bull market and the dollar will be crushed” statements because they never make sense to me. Someone has to do it. Anyway, no jungle here. That is so past millennium. I don’t think they have had a jungle here since Roman times actually. Rural areas are quite barren in the dry season. A lot is barely suitable for sheep grazing anymore. Virtually all of the trees have long since been cut and burned.
I know Bird..its all good.
No more jungles. I’m figured that but nothin like
jungle fever…Bird…lol…few winks there.
Sounds like a wholesome environment. Whatever
you doing you have really adapted to the lifestyle.
Its real hot here right now. I’m puttin ice in my chocos.
Thanks for the history where you live. Very interesting.
You do a very thorough job. In a short messaging process
here.
I often wondered how many words you type a minute.
Catch ya on the rebound. :◆}
I do not see where silver is leading anything………looks like they are lock step together.
ratio is still 66 to 1
G/S ratio looks to be turning down though so silver will be getting relatively stronger versus gold for a while anyway.
Yup Bird, not too many people have appreciated gold down viewpoints.
They don’t. And I don’t blame them really. I never really felt I got through to many people that all the money was being made on the other side of this trade. Most of the guys just don’t seem to want to abandon long positions and change teams. I had an excellent case for long dollars/short gold and Euros but it did not play well with anyone here even though it turned out to be quite accurate. My contention has long been gold and silver are overpriced but also that they are being dragged lower by the rest of the major commodities and by a fading Euro. I don’t know about you but I am very keen on sugar, wheat, corn, crude and natural gas right now. Those are what I follow more closely than even gold lately just on the principle that what goes down usually comes back up. A good entry point is coming in my opinion and it may just coincide with a reversal in gold so there is a ray of hope for those who have hung on to miners and metals all this time.
I surprised that you call a commodity with price way under operation cost overpriced. This does not even include reinvestment, replacement and exploration cost. Initial investors should make some money as well, right?
What I don’t appreciate are people who act the same during every correction because all they understand is a lower price and nothing else. There’s more to determining the market’s health than just the price action.
There will always be corrections whether we are in a bear market or not, but the average guy doesn’t grasp this fact.
I understand more than price.
Yep !!!!!
Silver is a better buy now than it was in December or June ’14. Yes, it can go lower, but accumulating at this level makes sense (unless you chase momentum, not value).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p97371181039&a=364829034
I just know the price is way under production cost and silver is essential for electronics and especially solar. They cannot keep the price this low and hoping the miners stay around to make silver available. The production was down last year and it will be down further this year. Unlike gold, the above ground silver is very limited and US owes China a lot of silver. They canot compensate silver miners for their production loss either since most of them are out side of US. Something has to give.
I have selected and added the most profitable silver mines during the last year and half and they all lose money in a big way now (bleeding red in a sense). It is why I am no longer adding silver mines to my portfolio since if price does not jump quickly, they have to shut down. They are hanging there with their finger tips.
Don’t underestimate the impact a modest rise in the price of silver can have on even a junior that has already stopped production —in this case, over a year ago:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AXU&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p55546962991
Note that AXU nearly doubled from December to March and wasn’t even oversold at the Dec. low. AXU has the cash and assets (and even some cashflow) to make it an appealing call option on the price of silver. It isn’t going to “expire” any time soon.
I agree. Non-production mine is better but I usually don’t buy juniors (two of juniors I ever bought went to 1 cent). All senior mines produce. These stupid guys are operating at loss and at same time deplete their best resources. I never see worse management in any other sector.
Anyone want to hazard a bet on silvers next stop?
I am buying.
I would wait.
No, I have waited for years.
As you wish.
Thank you !!!!
Month, day and year………..or tick by tick………………….
Maybe we should stop talking about gold and focus on Theralase.
Do you think Theralase may surpass Gold?
The market is just taking a break after a quick rise of about 100 points almost. Gartman is feeling bearish just before the next rise. Oil will turn first. It needs to get above 94 for a clear signal.
On the weekly and monthly charts, oil is a sell vs gold.
Maybe but I have added both in the last two weeks. I like my recent purchase of Canadian Oil Sand since it has 7% dividend.
On the daily chart, oil is a buy vs gold, however, COS:gold is a sell.
You are correct. Longer term charts look very poor.
Gartman called the bottom in crude this morning when he said to short it.
This guy has such a thick skin, unbelievable!
Sheesh, he is a little late to the party, eh?
I mean…it peaked back in June and has been dropping ever since…..and now he is calling a short? That is the craziest damned thing I have heard all day. You see, that is why I don’t watch TV. It would so screw with my head.
Maybe Jerry is right though. I think he said the dollar was going up to wreck oil prices, wheat, metals and the like and thus screw with the Russian economy. Or did I read that on another site? I thought it was kind of a cute idea but who the hell really knows. All it really takes is talking from the right people and some politics to move a currency sometimes. That would be economic warfare though on a very big scale. It would bring the Chinese onto your side because as the dollar strengthens they really benefit and it could drive your adversary (Russian in this case) into near bankruptcy as they dumped dollar assets exactly before a big price rise and during a time their own currency was in a nose dive. The implications are mind boggling. But this is the stuff of conspiracy thinking.
The problem is this trading strategy by default will make you miss all the bottoms and end up buy high and sell low. Do we still believe in money printing bring inflation? Otherwise all economic laws can be broken.
So far 100% of break outs have failed in the last 3 years. Only way you can sell is on the way down. How can you make money this way? Hope someone explain to me how you can add many small negative numbers into a big positive number. I can say I am math genius but I don’t get it.
Ira Epstein has a gold target right now of 1223.70 —pretty much the same as Man About Dallas’s 1224.
The dollar needs a rest:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p26764525118&a=361864899
Yes, MAD has just about got his wish. He was pretty insistent on that number.
And he still might; especially with the Fed meeting coming up.
Quite true. That is a date to watch.
I have lost track by the way….is this the end of QE this month?
I think it is October.
You figure all the damage is priced in already? Like maybe this flat market is actually about all we see in the way of a wobble and then its back to business as usual?
how about some credit towards this glen.. Again I first on here to call for a tripple bottom. 1179.40/1180..
I think you might still be the ONLY one calling for a triple bottom. I’ve considered it for months, but I don’t think it will happen. It’s one thing to recognize a possibility, it’s another to make a call. So, if it happens, I will be the first congratulate you.
Gold bounced from around 1033 in 2010 and that would be strong support.
Off Topic but appropriate for today 9/11:
I’m agnostic about the attack on 9/11. I don’t know if it was purely instigated by the hate of Bin Laden, or if there was C.I.A. involvement. I don’t know.
However, I want to reproduce some of the findings of the 911 Commission, stripped of miscellaneous obfuscation stuff. The following is found by the commission to be true:
On the morning of September 9, 2001, 19 men armed only with box-cutters, directed by a man on dialysis, in a cave half way around the world (without electricity), armed only with a satellite phone and a laptop, managed to penetrate the most heavily guarded airspace in the world; overpowering the passengers and the militarily combat-trained pilots in 4 commercial aircraft, taking those planes each significantly off-course for over an hour without being intercepted by a single fighter intercepter.
These highjackers, devout Islamic fundamentalists, who liked to drink alcohol, snort cocaine and live with pink-haired strippers, managed in New Yorm to topple 3 buildings with two planes (hitting only two buildings). While in Washington a pilot who previously had difficulty handling a single-engined Cessna, succeeded in making a 757 perform a smooth 270 degree corkscrew turn to come down 8,000 feet to align perfectly with the ground to punch into the Pentagon exactly where DoD staffers were working in the budget analyst’s office on the mystery of a missing $2.3 Trillion in funds announced by Donald Rumsfeld just the day before, Sept 9, 2001.
Those were the findings of the Commission.
(The $2.3 Trillion is still unexplained to this day, with records supposedly all destroyed.)
Almost all the precious metals were recovered from ground zero too… go figure.
They got the date right, didn’t they?
Thick fingers….York not Yorm!
which is a better investment theralase or gold?
Try RIG with 8% dividend an mult-year lows. $6 EPS.
Rumsfeld announced the missing $2.3 trillion on 9/10….Google it.
What? Don’ get it
The DoD ‘lost’ $2.3T. The records were in the portion of the pentagon that was destroyed.
Likewise, WTC7 was a huge repository of CIA records. Until the steel-frame skyscraper collapsed in a fashion visually indistinguishable from a controlled demolition, including falling 30 meters at freefall speed. The government (NIST) concluded it was due to office fires.
Probably the best documentary on 9/11:
Another one: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GD_vwzjdTi4
The interesting thing about building 7 coming down due to an office fire is that the majority of americans believe it.
Exactly. The official explanation is a transparent lie.
Best buy short position is at extreme levels and the chart is looking strong with a break out coming very soon. I added a position. Radio Shack is going under unless they can get financing and that could give a boost.
BEST BUY
Breakout in best buy as predicted from the charts.
HH says Oh God. Thats classic.
Until the deck is swabbed and all the late comers that showed up for the party after the lights were are thrown overboard there is still more downside to come.
Too many yucks thought the road to riches was paved with gold.
They continue to deny and delude themselves and as many people they can toss overboard with them.
They called for “to the moon” when they had no clue what they were talking about.
No they rant.
face it – its over. its been over. it will stay over.
Well, James The Greater,
DA JA VU…..Lets go back to Jan. 2014…May.2014….even Dec. 2013.
What happened ??? We have had this coversation before many times.
Now its up to you to draw your own conclusions.
My conclusion is if the gold equities lead gold down
with more huge declines we have a problem.
As of this current time that’s not happening. Also, I have
an indicator thats bright green but that information cannot
be shared on a public forum.
I’ve shared already much valuable information.
And remember coming from your lips to my ears.
Quote….STAY THE COARSE ANC FOCUS ON THE PRIZE. by James The Greater
When inflation starts to rage and the government first tries to raise the interest rates as they did in the seventies the economy will collapse. So who benefits from these low rates mostly banks, they have been hoarding cash which they do not want to part with until the economy is in scorched earth mode, then the cash will come out and the bankers will buy from the hapless citizens who are in terrible debt and will part with their wealth for fire sale prices.
Sounds about right, Dick.
I’ll second that one.
DT hit the nail on the head.
That cash is not planned for the good of society.
Oh, but they will promise thats what they will do.
ALL BROKEN PROMISES AND MORE LIES.
I agree, theoretically, all wealth are already with FED+Banks. This is revolution stuff in my home country.
Someone said my posts were a contarian indicator that the bottom was in.
He said were were literally hours away from a bottom. That was a few weeks ago.
He didnt know what he was talking about and he called me a weak hand.
How are you doing now?
I’m doing great. Like you I’m losing money.
The Lord said…son you better lose it now
before the Tribulation because its all going
to burn.
Sadom and Gamora thought they too, it would
go on forever but soon found out they got destroyed
by their own lusts.
Even I am a little flabbergasted that gold is STILL falling this morning. Down to lows of 1232 already this morning Africa time. This will be five days running now. Maybe the guys saying that the drop below 1240 would trigger a big slide to 1200 are going to be correct this very day. WOW!
The gold equites say your wrong.
Unless its quick down and up.
I think we will see inflation, but my guess is the Fed will print until a dollar collapse or war, which ever comes first.
Well, in a war you get to stiff your creditors.
swab the deck
throw the gold carcasses overboard
see you in 2030
I really don’t feel that negative about golds prospects in the not too distant future, James. It looks bad now, I agree. But the world has not ended. The lower it goes the better I like it actually. I will be thrilled if we hit my 968 target .Wow!
there is no inflation
the $ is not collapsing. it is rising.
I said it before many many months ago, bears repeating…
if people were honest a bet on gold was a bet against the U.S.
the truth of the matter, the energy boon was the game changer for gold.
the U.S. will be energy independent in 5 years.
the economy will soar
the dollar will rise
gold will be crushed.
A bet on gold is a bet against financial fraud and stupidity. If this makes it look like a bet against the U.S. specifically, it is only a coincidence.
As for the dollar, will you ever understand that it can soar in terms of other currencies while losing purchasing power??? Conversely, it is possible for it to fall vs the other major currencies while still maintaining or even gaining purchasing power.
Today, the USD trades where it did in 1990/91; does it have the same purchasing power today as it did then? I don’t think so!
Excellent point Matthew.
You bet your arse !!!!!!
Thanks guys.
American and proud of it, I’m sure.
But US manufacturing is almost dead.
That means it has to import.
China will soon have a bigger economy than the US.
The dollar will sink, inflation will occur……just wait.
And in the end we’re all dead.
Who says the U.S. will be energy independent? Shale gas stands to deliver a mere fraction of what its promoters are saying.
This is the comment I didnt post
Keep you faith. 2008 never happened.
Matthew – I understand what you are saying and its true.
However everything is related and every asset must be judged not by its price but by its purchasing power.
someone once said its not about the price of an ounce of gold, but how many ounces you own.
i dont subscribe to that way of thinking.
holders of gold have lost a lot of purchasing power these lat few years.
And going back long stretches of time sounds great on paper, but not in practice
timing is and always will be everything.
when the $ index soars, and yes i know it is a backet of worthless fiat, nevertheless, gold priced in dollars will tank
James, the funny thing is, you would probably feel just fine holding a large cash balance for many years even though it is far more likely to lose purchasing power than gold.
Absolutely everything fluctuates in real terms (purchasing power), but NOTHING does so less than gold long term. James Turk (and bb) have it right; just keep buying on a regular basis and dollar cost average. The point is to get rid of your socialist debt paper which is backed only by force/coercion, not choice/cooperation (the vote of the market).
Remember, when gold “tanks” it often isn’t really tanking since commodities (real stuff) tend to tank with it. Little purchasing power was lost by holding gold in the ’80s (unless one bought the blowoff!). holding too much gold when it is not necessary really should be looked at as an opportunity cost. Compared to mining stocks, that’s how I look at it now. Notice that no one ever talks about the fact that gold never gave back its 1970s gains. It remained 11-12x the 1971 price throughout the 1980s.
Holding paper assets through a bear market, on the other hand, can never be considered merely an opportunity cost. When stocks and bonds fall, they fall hard in real terms. The Dow peaked near 45 ounces of gold in 1999 and fell to just 5.8 ounces in 2011. In my opinion, this fact is THE single biggest reason for the huge rally in paper for the last three years. The ratio is now reaching Fibonacci resistance. When it finally turns, gold will be anything but boring. (I disagree with Doc’s view that it can go essentially sideways for a few years.) The ratio is still going to go to 1:1 (or even 1:.5).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU:$GOLD&p=M&st=1981-09-06&en=today&id=p67917354335&a=367265006
Lots o’ money in that chart! Wish I knew about this stuff when it was 44:1.
Our 1930 moment approaches. Only this time it will feel more like the bursting of the South Seas Bubble and probably it will last just as long. A twenty year depression is hardly out of the question. Stock up on cash, canned goods and extra shoes while you still have time!
If that happens the rapture is here.
Russia is already nuked up.
No flesh will survive the trib.
Good observation Bird.
That was a perfect chart to post by the way, Matthew. Many thanks. We really could all use a refresher on it since it has been awhile since it was discussed on this site. There are really very few charts that define our economic future quite so succinctly. It is just a visual but what an eye popper. And the conclusions are so damning and obvious. Maybe Cory will post it up as a thread and we can all remember why it is that we want to be holding miners, hard assets and gold once the music finally stops in a few years time….and why we want to be as far away from debt as possible when the meltdown really arrives!
Thanks and your welcome, Bird.
No problem. It really is a great chart. Refreshing to say the least because every once in awhile I lose perspective on why I am here watching gold each day. If a picture paints a thousand words then that is the one we need to put under our fridges magnets for those days we feel discouraged.
The desire to put it on your fridge tells me that you get its significance, that’s for sure. The big money is made in the big move. Until then, buy the best assets as cheaply as possible and avoid margin debt so you don’t blow up while you wait. (My opinion; NOT investment advice. DYODD etc.)
Sure, I get it. Seen the cycles come and go many times. I keep telling anyone who will listen I am actually quite bullish precious metals (and getting downright positive with each step we fall). I just don’t like the risk profile when gold is in this kind of a pattern so I am not active like you the small caps and juniors. The day is coming closer and closer though.
How can you justify when you print a lot of something, you can also make its value go up? If economy is that easy, why do you have to work? Why not just print? Is this a logic even elementary student should know?
It is that whole relativity factor Lawrence. The Fed is ending QE and there is no indication whatsoever that this last program will be followed by another. In fact I will almost guarantee there won’t be another round of easing. It is that act that is now pushing the dollar back up and sucking capital into America markets. QE is thus no longer necessary as the market will be self reinforcing and outside flows will do the heavy lifting to propel stocks higher. This is momentum now.
Sorry wrong place.
QE is the acceleration only not the speed of the money expansion. It is money supply. It has increased nearly 5 times in the last 6 years. It is the amount of money relative to the amount of goods. Zero interest rate is enough to increase the money supply. Just look at the money supply and gold price from 1960s to 2008. There was never QE before 2009 but both increased by many many folds
Bird,
QE actually reduced the gold price. Just look at the start of QE 3 and the start of gold major decline since October 2012. Both happened together within mater of weeks.
I was talking about the dollar index.
Those are a bunch of losers. One always lags the rest in its sinking speed.
Not sure we are understanding each other today, Lawrence.
I am not american so I never care about USDX. Sorry.
Assume the US and the 7 seven component currencies all print with same speed, the index will stay the same for long time. But it will help the purchasing power of $ a bit. They can not print goods people need to buy
Is this funny?
Bird,
QE is the acceleration only not the speed of the money expansion. It is money supply. It has increased nearly 5 times in the last 6 years. It is the amount of money relative to the amount of goods. Zero interest rate is enough to increase the money supply. Just look at the money supply and gold price from 1960s to 2008. There was never QE before 2009 but both increased by many many folds.
Looks like 1240 is holding so far
Give it more time. It was silver that got murdered today.
Gold will move down until there are companies willing to sponsor this site. Once the “one way gold promoters” give up because they are bankrupt then a bottom can be made. Grandich gave up the junior mining promotion business as he could see that will never recover. When Sprott fires at least one PM and the fund sees record redemptions and Al has less than 5 sponsors the bull will restart @$900/oz.
The promoters will use any bit of positive info to push their agenda. Al claimed XRC was a good buy @$1.20 cause the CEO was a “big buyer” never mentioning he bought only 12,000 shares, hardly a huge purchase. The promoters mention China demand but when it tanked they forgot to mention that. The promoters mocked central banks for selling never realizing the bull ended when they began buying. The promoters mentioned how at the peak of the real estate market the number of tv shows about houses and ignored the gold mining shows.
This is why you cannot listen to people like Al. He will ignore all evidence, remember how he ignored PEMs balance sheet and expenses, if it suits his business.
There is a Chinese gold council conference going on. The Chinese chairman mentioned that demand is increasing at 20% a year not declining. There are more channels to import than before. China will start an international trading hub on September 29 in RMB only. CME will setup an exchange in HongKong in the new year to compete with this new exchange. With chinese demand going down, you would think it is waste of time, right? Go to goldseek.com to read the news.
HH – I wasn’t asking you how you are doing. I was referring to someone else
I know that James.
I was being facetious.
Take it easy. Your starting to bug out.
He has a right to be anxious HH. James holds 17,000 ounces of silver which means he took it on the chin for a 50,000 dollar loss since mid July alone. I would be getting squirmy too if I was him.
Everyone does owning precious metals Bird.
I’m in here trying to help James.
THE GOLD BEAR IS DEAD ..BIRD.
You supply me evidence gold is
falling through say 1150.
The gold equities say…no.
The gold bear is dead unless those
equities move south in a big way.
The bears have no proof. Only useless
charts and silly support levels.
In the long run buying good dividend paying stocks and real estate beats gold easily.
I know that now
OWL………has always said you should be diversified………
Stocks through a DRIP PLAN, AND REAL ESTATE PAID IN CASH…….
Leverage and debt……will bite you in the arse………….
Your on the opposite side now of the spectrum James.
Your an emotional investor being hoodwinked into
trends that will fade.
Only maybe to sell your gold to buy high
in the markets that now looks appealing
after it has already appreciated.
Big mistake.
Matthew I agree the Dow gold ratio was one of the biggest indicators of the vLue of both, and still is.
You say it is hitting fib resistance it better
If not it looks like it is going back up to 45 to 1
James, the Dow would have to gain another 50% vs gold just to start to look like it wants to go to 45:1. That is, it would have to claw back more than 38.2% of the decline that started about fifteen years ago. See the red Fib lines that I just added.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU:$GOLD&p=M&st=1981-09-06&en=today&id=p67917354335&a=367265006&listNum=1
Now let’s think about this without the charts. Big, long market trends turn when valuations are at very rare extremes. Such extremes are necessary to get investors to dump the long term big winners and buy the long term big losers. Today, the Dow’s average dividend yield is just 1.70% and was 2.52% when gold hit its 2011 high. Those number do not account for inflation so real yields are even lower. When the Dow:Gold ratio bottomed in 1980, the Dow yielded 6.5%. When the Dow:Gold ratio peaked in the early 1930s, the Dow yielded over 10%. Now let’s look at the Dow’s P/E at a multi-decade low. According to the WSJ, the Dow’s current P/E is over 16. At its lows in the 1930s and 1980s, it was about 5 to 6. As gold peaked in 2011, it was just under 12.
Would you believe that the Dow:Gold ratio peaked at 6 before the crash of 1987? Yet, today, we are lead to believe that 6 is a major bargain low.
Here’s another interesting measure that obviously has extremely positive implications:
https://www.goldbroker.com/media/image/cms/media/images/gold-global-financial-assets.png
Note that this measure should be even more favorable today due to the huge decline in the gold price in 2013 and all the new money out of thin air that’s been created.
Agree. The only reason we had a bump in the ratio was due to all the interventions. But despite this the business cycle has still asserted itself and is in the process of overpowering the distraction. The dow/gold ratio is looking to me it is going to turn down again not too far in the future which will put us back on track for a 1930’s style retracement.
I am looking at that chart again.
This looks like a chart that wants to go to 45 to 1 before it goes to 5 to 1
James I may be your only friend in here along with bird maybe lol.. I personally have no idea where that ratio ends up. 45 to 1? Wow if that happens im the first one to sign up to your newsletter. looking at the painting i personally can’t say it won’t happen as im open minded.
HH – You couldnt be more wrong.
First of all you dont know me. I am not emotional. You are emotional.
I have no intention of selling my gold, no matter how low it goes.
And I have no intention of buying into an over priced stock market.
You need to cool off, take a walk on the beach
But realize we could have a long long way down in this gold bear market.
nothing can be ruled out. Anything is possible.
Except that
I agree hh does get emotional lol..
YOU’RE… A EMOTIONAL INVESTOR.
JAMES…..thats evident.
All you do is complain.
Its wearing.
since I’ve been here all you do is complain
and moan like a 2 year old.
Then those damn horses.
I don’t give a ratz behind.
Of course you’re emotional J….anyone pre-occupied with the gee-gees is made that way. I had a serious horse-racing pal (now deceased through too much alcohol) who was near manic depressive according to how his day at the races panned out. Gamblers by nature are emotional, even when they think they’ve got skin the game.
the gold chart looks absolutely horrible
havent seen a chart look this bad in a long long time
it looks like we are now going to $1180 to test the lows.
after that fails we will head down to $1000
from there it either holds or goes to $700
this is the reality of the situation
My gut/dreams made me smell 950/1050 2008 breakout. The more i don’t want that to happen the more it looks like reality.
Let me say this to bird.. Bird you have called for the 960 something call as a low.. If that happens, my golly matthew we are in for a world of hurt on the miners. Where talking 2001/2002/2008 bottoms for some of these miners. Wowsers.
That would be the flash bottom in my view Glen. Not a price that would hold for long but rather a price that would puke gold from portfolios everywhere all at once. Maybe it will be just a transitory spike low that puts the fear of God back into the gold camp and sends the last of the pack scattering for the hills.
James I will say this, even if it goes to 1000 bullion price, good luck getting the real stuff at that price. Not happening at least in bulk terms.
if it goes to $700 back up the truck………..
J I agree 🙂
Glendidish – if it goes to $1000 and you want to buy gold let me know.
My gold dealer can get you all you want
I don’t expect shortages
Cmon now james lol.. He may have it but the premium will be off the charts.
Ameteurs bloggin.
PROCEED WITH CAUTION. they are always wrong.
Ameteurs? ok i will stop posting. I don’t want trouble. I’ve been sharing all my hard work and dedication on this board for sometime and I get guys like you saying things like that.
Al and cory i will be gone for awhile. I hate going on a board where you are attacked of one’s opinion. Bird I don’t know how you put up with this.
Don’t worry about it too much Glen. I really appreciate your input as do many others here.
I’ve been dealing with this gold dealer for 15 years. His premiums have always been the same. He has never not had inventory.
Don’t believe the propaganda by the gold shills about shortages and premiums.
Yeah, some fly by night shady people that have sprung up n the last few years to make a quick buck might not be able to the inventory or charge exorbitant premiums, but my guy has been in the business 30 years.
Again don’t believe the. KWN crap about shortages.
Always remember it’s a market. Someone is always selling and someone is always buying
And glendidish, stay on board. You will miss all my posts.
Just ignore the people who are steam rollng over people
Fair enough James. I believe you.. Im done for awhile on this board. I spend to much time here and people seem to be ignorant and rude. Bully like symptoms. Maybe we can exchange info keep in touch.
Be disappointed to lose your views/insights GF,
Hope you change your mind & stick around.
Skeeta thx appreciate it.
I second that Skeeta.
I apologies Glenfedish.
Its just the level of confidence here is very poor
and I believe when gold turns around you will
see what I’m talking about.
Sorry you feel that way. But I feel like you its
way to negative for me to post anymore.
HH,
Believe when I say this, emotions are running very high. We have bulls, we have bears, we have neutrals etc.. You get my just. The one thing we all have in common I believe is making money and protecting ourselves from the system. Together we are a force. Independently we are useless.
We all have opinions and we are all adults here. The one thing my father always told me was to respect everyone wrong or right. You don’t have to agree but lets respect everyone. When you post I take the positives from it and apply it. The negatives or things I don’t agree with I brush it off.
I know for a fact you bring not only value to this board but experience and you have been here for quite sometime. Anyone in here that’s been around I respect no matter of opinion.
I know and feel what you are saying about gold/ miners.. I also know it will turn. If your as smart as I know you are you can read between my lines. The end result we both agree on, the short term is were we disagree. That’s ok.. I maybe wrong or you maybe wrong. But together with others opinions we can achieve more.
This is a board that both al,cory, doc, gary , rick and temple bring there honest opinions to the forefront. They truly give there sweat to this board free of advice. Lets keep on track..
All the best
glen.. Im gone for sometime. I truly need to relax my mind. This is personal. Nothing to do with Heavy.
Very nice post Glenfedish.
You are truely remarkable guy. Much better than I.
When I posted the ameteurs thing was not referring
to you. Its all over the board in spades.
Please do return soon and I concur with all of your
remarks.
I wish I could type more. I am so beat.
Thank you for being here. You are truely an asset to
this forum.
Truely and sincerely yours,
HH ;◆}
Best to you
Take a break
Sometimes you need to step back and clear your head
I did that last April after the smash and this whole summer
The market will still be here when you get back
Nicely put both HH and J. Al/Cory’s site is getting over-heated to my mind. I’m thinking like glenfidish….speaking of which it’s the smoothest malt I know of! And as he says Al’s & Cory’s guests give us a sterling service.
I have an idea that this is only the result of despair amongst those invested in metals. So it is coming out as conflict between writers but in reality it is more of a personal thing based on the lack of upward propulsion in the metals markets.
Everyone is generally happier and getting along better as prices rise. At such times we feel richer and more generous. It is like that with the economy too. Ever notice how recessions bring conflict and political discord amongst families, friends, neighbors and business associates?
Sometimes it even brings war between nations and ethnic groups. I think it might actually be wired into our minds. It is this idea that scarcity has arrived and so we all become more defensive and territorial.
That is what a a long falling price decline is really about I think. It is like we are facing a famine and have discovered our stores are not going to be enough to get us through. And so doubt and insecurity creep into to our minds and conflict erupts.
Lucky for us, low prices are resolved by low prices and so it is inevitable we will see a renewed burst of activity and interest again. Now that the serious gold followers have been winnowed down to just a few hundred of the original tens of thousands of interested people the conversation has become much more serious.
birdman – i think there is a lot of despair among gold bulls, becuase things are not going according to hoyle.
too many people still think gold must go up because that is what their inidicators, or fundamentals are telling them. they get frustrated becuase it doesnt make sense to them.
ive been telling them for a few years gold doesnt have to do what you think it should do and there are no such things as fundamentals
on a technical note it looks like $1240 is the new hard resistance
Mr Frustrated himself just dismissed “indicators” and ends with “on a technical note.” LOL
You don’t even recognize Fibonacci support/resistance, why should anyone care what you think about technicals. “Hard resistance” lol…….
And you call GE Christenson a snake oil salesman?
That would be shocking if it was true because we would have lost 1320, 1300, 1280 and 1240 all within a span of about two months time. That is a pretty significant change after such a long period of declines already and it amounts to 100 dollars losses in about 60 days.
I think it is fairly clear that the trend is not our friend right now unless short term speculating on swings is your cup of tea. But so many busted support levels is causing some serious chart damage that not many expected during what are normally strong months for gold.
So yes, it is extremely discouraging for long time gold bulls and those who held on to mine positions that are deeply underwater now. What I am gathering bit by bit is that very few here are accumulating anymore. Matthew and Doc buy strategically good bets on the miners and still turn a buck. BB buys a percentage of physical each month. Most others have tossed their hopes overboard except for the few who enjoy the challenge of getting short.
Is that real capitulation and despair? Another poster here said the other day that the end is when nobody comes to this site anymore and even the advertisers drop off or go bankrupt. Who knows….maybe it gets that bad before a turnaround.
I still think we have a long time in the wilderness. Up to a year more. Prices could remain flat to down during that time. The weakest Juniors will be delisted one by one. Some productive mines could shut down or curtail operations. There will be periodic acquisitions of companies purchased in wholesale lots of blocks at extremely preferential prices.
Eventually we get a turn around and a few people make an absolute killing while the long term holders have either cashed out or remain so disenchanted they don’t even bother trying to catch the ride back up again.
That is how despair turns to revulsion. Maybe it is time to bet on stuff that actually makes money for a change!
Matthew – the problem with too many hard technicians is they cant see the forest for the trees. Anyone can paint a chart anyway they want.
from a very basic, simple perspective until it isnt it is
and like so many other levels, until gold takes out $1240 it is now resistance.
you can draw all your wedges, and fish heads, and shooting stars, and engulfing patterns. its all bs
KISS!
like bird said the trend is down. i dont need a phd in elliot wave to see that
But I believe with not a shadow of doubt gold will see its day again, James. Mostly I am talking about the shorter term and commodity groups but I am in waiting mode until I see that a turn has come. I sure as hell do not want to miss the change when it comes!
ps i am not frustrasted either
except with people who dont want to admit, or cant figure out, that what is is
and that is a plain as day text book example of a bear market
Had I acted in a way that you approve of this year, James, I wouldn’t have made any money!
How foolish of you to call TA bs –again, as you highlight 1240. FYI, Fibonacci support/resistance areas are as simple and real as it gets. The architecture of the universe IS the golden ratio.
If its a bear market as you say James.
Go find a spot to hibernate.
Winter is coming and thats what bears do.
Off Topic:
Sorry. I mentioned yesterday that police forces throughout the US have been issued with 12,000 bayonets.
Well, Broward County Florida has just taken delivery of 8 Apache Attack Helicopters.
What the h*ll are they expecting to happen in the US?
Just a few more months till I leave…..hold on guys, till I’m gone.