Minimize

Welcome!

Oil will have to turn upward to help the rest of the commodity sector

September 12, 2014

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Discussion
83 Comments
    Sep 12, 2014 12:32 AM

    Re the weekend show – I would be interested if you guys have any thoughts on the Alibaba IPO and whether that might reignite the markets higher or whether it could be the final flourish before a downturn.

    No chance of getting it for 65 bucks but I wonder where if will go – will it spike and then do a Facebook or could we see it going to crazy highs. Amazon 300 or so bucks. Alibaba?

    Just a thought.

    Sep 12, 2014 12:40 AM

    People knock Bo Polny one person in here especially who
    moans 24/7 you would have cashed out at the top 3 years
    ago in gold listening to Bo. Then bashing Bo.

    Its greed at the top not selling always asking for more.

    Its fear at the bottom upset and blaming the whole world.

    Next time don’t be greedy and cash out.

    Then you won’t complain. However, you would complain
    anyway. Its never enough. Thats pure greed.

    Answer: don’t be greedy and be happy with your gains

    Sep 12, 2014 12:44 AM

    Ok…. just $4 to go now to $1224. This has been a textbook Elliott “c”-wave; brutal, unrelenting, take-no-prisoners. The gloom here is so thick you could cut it with a knife. ( if people haven’t used the knife on themselves, that is )

      Sep 12, 2014 12:48 AM

      Ya..MAD..I’m eating peanut butter and jelly sandwiches. lol

      Gold equites though are higher now than the bottom in June.

      THE GOLD BULL LIVES !!!!

      next is your explosive rally. :◆}

        Sep 12, 2014 12:15 AM

        Almost there MAD. You surprised me but looks like you came through with flying colors.

      Sep 12, 2014 12:09 AM

      Great call, MA Dallas. Unlike so many E-Wavers I’ve come across, you know your stuff. The feel of the current bounce leads me to think that you’ll get the last $4 easily.

      Sep 12, 2014 12:52 AM

      MAD,

      What happened to your call about the dollar topping out at 82.60 and being “hung out to dry”?

        Sep 12, 2014 12:09 AM

        So, JMiller, or anyone, is it going higher or lower from here?
        The P&F target is still 73.
        http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=3&mn=8&dy=0&id=p27884990434&a=361864899

          Sep 12, 2014 12:49 AM

          Exactly my reluctance to call it higher Matthew. Looks like we stall out close to 85 but I will remain dollar bullish based on longer term beliefs that is where the trend will be taking us. So your answer is that the dollar is about to reverse. I will bet the Scottish election plays right into that decline as the No side takes it and Sterling starts moving back up.

            bb
            Sep 12, 2014 12:59 AM

            I go for the Scots, and the Catalinins.

      Sep 12, 2014 12:33 AM

      Juniors and intermediates I follow are not really budging with this recent downturn in Au an Ag. This downturn in Gold seems pretty superficially and not really resulting in any true fear that Gold is dead especially since it is taking out key resistance points with easy. I hope this downturn kills a few more gold mines and projects (eg. CPN) as this improves fundamentals even more. Fundamentals around gold are starting to make their way to the top and soon the value and demand will be more clear.

        Sep 12, 2014 12:43 PM

        You have one company in mind you want dead? Kind of funny actually. What did they do to you?

    Sep 12, 2014 12:44 AM

    Oil almost made it past the 94 area (93.68) we need to get past early this morning and then fell to 92.40. Drillers are falling hard.

    Sep 12, 2014 12:53 AM

    I read somewhere Polny said this final low would leave none but the most resolute bulls standing by the time it finished. All two or them. And each thinks the other is lying. Classic “c”-wave bottom.

      Sep 12, 2014 12:55 AM

      Theres no bulls left. He’s right.

      Not sure about price targets but huge rallies start here.

        Sep 12, 2014 12:01 AM

        No HH….I am a bull. The more it falls the more bullish I get. One of these days soon you will see Gary, Matthew, Doc, Al, Rick and I are all singing from exactly the same song book. It’s just a cycle man and does not give me indigestion. Might be many more months of waiting is all. It is all in the anticipation now!

          Sep 12, 2014 12:18 AM

          Not that I want you bullish Bird.

          Just not bias in either direction.

          However, I do embrace the comments.

          Not only that you are talking like a champ.

          You have not been smoke screened by the market.

          Only then can we be successful. Once we get blinded
          its off to loser land.

          Commodities are getting to look yummy. :◆} that where the big $$$$$ …is.

            Sep 12, 2014 12:37 AM

            Speaking with a few junior CEOs. Arranging financing for there projects is better than it has been in the last couple years. Bulls are alive and well.

            Sep 12, 2014 12:50 AM

            You mean bottom feeders, Peter?

        Sep 12, 2014 12:32 AM

        So what is the call after it hits your C target?

        Sep 12, 2014 12:52 AM

        After the kind of damage that was done to gold it’s very unlikely we get an “explosive” rally. Much more likely it will be a very hesitant and volatile beginning that makes it almost impossible for either bulls or bears to hold on.

    Sep 12, 2014 12:55 AM

    I doubt the Fed raises rates any time soon. There is no inflation..no reason to raise. Any raise in rates prior to year end will be politically influenced.

    I think miners look better here than oil…they are at least holding weekly trend lines. Now through Thanksgiving I expect continued chop in the market, volatility to increase, commodities to consolidate and bounce a little, and bonds to sell off.

    I think Alibaba will rise 3% on IPO day and will finish the year right around where it is priced.

    …that’s my crystal ball guys. Enjoy the wknds.

    Sep 12, 2014 12:58 AM

    Sugar got smoked again today. Major floor approaching. Will it hold or will it break? What is interesting is that the sugar chart for 2014 bears a some resemblance to gold so the supports for both may indicate a key inflection point if they hold. As always I counsel to watch not just gold but the rest of sector for signs of exhaustion and perhaps even inspiration coming.

    Gary, I don’t think you want to get too excited about gold equities rising at a time like this. Just from a mechanical perspective we expect exactly this kind of thing to play out as shorts rush to take a profit and buy back shares.

      Sep 12, 2014 12:40 AM

      I don’t follow sugar – what ticker should I be looking at?

      Here in the UK you can hardly open a newspaper each day without some story about how bad sugar is and why we all should stop eating it.

        Sep 12, 2014 12:36 AM

        Oh, LON:SUGA – close to 10 year lows. Wonder why.

          Sep 12, 2014 12:52 AM

          Bob…..it is very lonely for a guy like me who watches sugar. But someones got to do it!

            Sep 12, 2014 12:28 PM

            I am watching it now also.

            Appparently there is a glut of sugar after a bumper sugar harvest and they expect a surplus next year also according to articles on google.

            Sep 12, 2014 12:45 PM

            New confuses me. I am watching it strictly from the technicals these days.

      Sep 12, 2014 12:54 AM

      I don’t think miners have any chance of rising until gold does. I just noted that they are showing some relative strength compared to gold during this decline.

    Sep 12, 2014 12:00 AM

    Hmmm…. platinum and palladium both putting in what – so far, anyway – look like daily reversals.

    Sep 12, 2014 12:01 AM

    I recieve Polny missives.
    He has embarrassed himself for a week or two now.
    However,the dollar has been held up in nosebleed territory for the last ten days.
    I would guess when that levee breaks the commodities will return to life.

      Sep 12, 2014 12:07 AM

      If Polny read Birdman he would not be making so many mistakes.

        Sep 12, 2014 12:15 AM

        Who is the #1 Gold Market Timer ?
        It ain’t Birdman.

          Sep 12, 2014 12:17 AM

          That’s why I am anonymous. Being number one today means you will fall tomorrow.

            Sep 12, 2014 12:40 AM

            Yes, and your exact stance would be recorded and judged for its accuracy.

            Sep 12, 2014 12:08 AM

            My exact stance has already been recorded for all the guys like you who kept foolishly telling me the dollar was doomed, gold would rise, silver would go to the moon, the Fed would NEVER taper, that interest rate increases were as likely as a martian invasion (give it a little more time), that COT reports proved there was no metal, that Fed vaults were empty, that Chinese buying would be the impetus for gold to go much higher, that war in Ukraine was the real new driver…..

            And so much other BS that it is too exhausting to even bother recounting all the nonsense some of you people blindly repeat day after day. So yeah…Bo is wrong because he drinks the Kool-Aid like you. I have a long term call for gold to hit 968 and that is a lot damn closer these days than Bo’s call for 2000 by Christmas.

            Honestly I do not know how some of you guys even make any money because a few of you are wrong so often about everything it literally defies the statistical odds of something as mundane as coin flips. It is why I often say you would be better off gambling since it is so obvious estimating odds on the market are not what you excel at.

    Sep 12, 2014 12:05 AM
      Sep 12, 2014 12:06 AM

      Doh! Try this one; RSI of 26.

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER

        Sep 12, 2014 12:19 AM
          Sep 12, 2014 12:23 AM

          I’m not convinced the gold bull is back as I liken these times to the 1980s but Silver might grow up and be its own commodity instead of a hunk of turd caught on the butt of the golden goose.

            Sep 12, 2014 12:38 AM

            I have to buy when silver is this oversold. By buying calls, I can make a very good quick gain even if silver just rises modestly and briefly.
            The dollar is about to plunge, even if also only briefly.
            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p50519941318&a=361825427

            Sep 12, 2014 12:40 AM

            Btw, for numerous reasons, I believe there is no chance that 2011 was the equivalent of 1980. We’ll know soon enough…

            Sep 12, 2014 12:41 AM

            That is quite a chart for the US$ bull. Talk about exhausted (;-) I agree that the gold market is due for a bounce guided by sentiment not just an oversold RSI. The stocks are showing interest before the turn around IMHO only.

            Sep 12, 2014 12:45 AM

            Note the bearish reversal today. We’ll see where it closes.

            Sep 12, 2014 12:55 AM

            Speaking of an upside exhaustion, Bob Hoye said that the S&P just gave its first one in almost 15 years. I’ve been trading SPY puts for a little while now and I think it’s going lower.
            It’s now on a daily sell signal as well as a 60 min.

            Sep 12, 2014 12:03 AM

            Hmmmm… Things are getting interesting……….. very interesting.

    Sep 12, 2014 12:13 AM

    HH – The post above might be directed at me so I will need to respond to correct your errors.

    If you are directing your statement at me then i must ask you to do the following:

    Produce one post where I am BLAMING anyone for anything, and one post where I am COMPLAINING. YOU WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DO SO.

    Unless of course your definition of blame and complain is faulty and misguided as some of your other words and ideas.

    No let’s address Bo Polny.

    Bo Polny, like many people called the top in gold. It wasnt a hard top to call.
    All you need to do is look at how far it was stretched above its moving averages.
    You didnt need fancy elliot wave theory. Just good old fashioned common sense and moving averages.

    He also called last years $1180 low as the low. THIS HAS NOT BEEN CONFIRMED YET.
    The move isnt over.

    If you want to follow Bo Polny and Rick Rule be my guess.
    I do my own thinking.

    You are very unstable.
    You are too emotional.

    Why do I say this?

    Because you keep saying things like THE GOLD BULL LIVES!!!!

    What you are really saying is i hope this bull isnt over, i hope i hope i hope

    You cant cheerlead the price higher

    LET THE THING PLAY OUT

    RIGHT NOW IT IS STILL A BEAR MARKET

      Sep 12, 2014 12:22 AM

      As you wish James. You are stuck in a mode that keeps
      you from anything good.

      Its exhausting. Next time take your profits.

        Sep 12, 2014 12:35 AM

        Funnily enough James you strike me as MORE emotional than HH. Like the punter after a day’s racing who having taken more hits than wins goes away quietly spitting bullets while refusing to show it. Of course on those occasions when it’s the reverse and you’ve had more successes with the clip-clops you still show no emotion on the surface, while gleefully congratulating yourself and leaving others to marvel at your great professionalism.

      Sep 12, 2014 12:30 AM

      BTW…JAMES

      I will be proven correct. As in Dec. 2013 and June 2014.

      The odds are in my favor.

      You on the other hand its
      all hot air and fear.

      My proof is holding lots
      of water and no leaks.

      Just like the last 2 rounds
      above.

      NOW SUIT YOURSELF.

    Sep 12, 2014 12:40 AM

    HH – your words contradict yourself. you are unstable.

    just yesterday you said you were losingmoney:

    HH says:
    I’m doing great. Like you I’m losing money.

    The Lord said…son you better lose it now
    before the Tribulation because its all going
    to burn.

    Sadom and Gamora thought they too, it would
    go on forever but soon found out they got destroyed
    by their own lusts.

    I have to ask you why do you think you are losing money if gold is just insurance anyway?
    why do you think you ar losing money if gold maintains its purchasing power?

    You are losing money and yet you are right? Im confused.

    I always thought being right is making money

    i have no hot air or fear. I HAVE NOTHING TO FEAR

    I THINK IT IS YOU WHO ARE FEARING YOU GOT IN LATE AT THE WRONG TIME

      Sep 12, 2014 12:51 AM

      CORRECTION…PROFITS

      not losing anything

        Sep 12, 2014 12:01 AM

        To be honest James.

        Like some people I couldn’t sit in
        the same car for more than 2 minutes
        with a guy like you.

        ALL YOU DO IS BUG OUT.

        I have all my hair but around this
        my hair is starting to fall out just
        communicating with you here.

        YOUR A JOYKILL by a wide margin.

    Sep 12, 2014 12:44 AM

    Andrew – Im sorry but you are not correct in that assessment.

    but I really have to say I love the way you worded that!
    Are you a closet writer like myself, because you can really turn a phrase!

      Sep 12, 2014 12:04 AM

      Thanks James – if you’re a closet writer then you really are a passionate fellow!!

        Sep 12, 2014 12:07 AM

        To answer your question J – Yes I am a closet writer, for fear that if I advertised the fact I might get blown out of the water for being nothing but a book promoter. lol.

    Sep 12, 2014 12:58 AM

    HH oh I see. Then the rest of your statement gets even more confusing.
    Actually it isnt confusing. It would just be plain old wrong.

    like i said your words contradict yourself…

    If we substitute Profits for losing then i guess you made another typo below that…

    I’m doing great. Like you I’m losing (making) money.

    The Lord said…son you better lose (make) it now
    before the Tribulation because its all going
    to burn.

    Sadom and Gamora thought they too, it would
    go on forever but soon found out they got destroyed
    by their own lusts.

      Sep 12, 2014 12:08 AM

      All my positions were purchased at the bottom.

      Posted it here. Still way ahead.

      GO TO THE CHILL GRILL AND STOP BUGGIN OUT.

      Stop harrassing me. Try and help and its a shot in the foot.

      Release your frustrations on a pile of sand.

      Start pounding away ..lol

    Sep 12, 2014 12:14 AM
    Sep 12, 2014 12:38 AM

    HH – The problem is your bottom was $1180
    MY BOTTOM WAS $252

    BIG DIFFERENCE!

      Sep 12, 2014 12:51 AM

      I was buying in 2001 and before.

      Cashed out with fortunes.

      Bought huge spreads of land.

      Luxury properties.

      Sold properties and some those assets were
      pushed into gold at the Dec. 2013 bottom.

      I fully expect those gold assets to make
      fortunes again.

      My money is where my mouth is.

      WALKIN THE TALK.

      No horse crap

    Sep 12, 2014 12:59 AM

    HH – Wow not one fortune but fortunes.

    my money is where my mouth is

    you need to chill out

    theres an old race track saying – if you already got the 5 why do you need the 3

    good luck with your fortunes

      Sep 12, 2014 12:05 AM

      You need to back off…James

      And back out your horse and ride on.

      Thats the best thing you can do

      Find that soft pillow back at the
      ranch and lay it down.

      Ha..haaaaaa

    Sep 12, 2014 12:39 AM

    Hey, does anyone on this site have a few extra bottles of Global Warming? I could use some to get the rest of the snow off of my roof.

      Sep 12, 2014 12:57 AM

      My old trick Dan, was to pull out the ceiling insulation and feed the fireplace for a day. But then that was a farmhouse and odd behavior was normal there!

    Sep 12, 2014 12:56 AM

    HH – We need to keep this board interesing.

    After all as gold tanks and more and more people give up on gold they will leave.

    We need to give them something to entertain them.

    gold down $11, wont get to $1180 today, probably next week

      Sep 12, 2014 12:59 AM

      I would not make that bet, James. I just don’t think we are ready to blow out all the stops on this current downturn.

      Sep 12, 2014 12:12 PM

      OK James…

      Be positive though. I know you like pickin my brains.

      Enough..is enough though. So lets all be coool

    bb
    Sep 12, 2014 12:13 PM

    James, please don’t let HH drive you away, he already chased away JJ.
    A real drag when the site loses good thinking.

    Bird and anyone else with feathers, just a thought, kwn has been saying the next crash will be devastating, end of the world as we know it kinda stuff.

    A few years ago, I didn’t know enough to say “bear market” but I said it looked to me like a long slow decline started.

    Im wondering if this deflation we are seeing recently isn’t the start of the destructive spiral that has been talked about for so long.

    It could be, gold looks to me like its doing what it should, falling in nominal terms yet retaining purchasing power, there are other clues I think.

    Maybe Im wrong, but for the last few months Ive gone from about 10% physical gold to 5%, preferring to increase cash, looks like for me, that was a positive move, anyway, I ramble, any opinions? Is my thinking way off? too early? etc

      Sep 12, 2014 12:42 PM

      Bb, the time to go from 10% to 5% and increase cash was three years ago when cash was cheap compared to gold. Right now, gold is cheap and cash is expensive.

        bb
        Sep 12, 2014 12:59 PM

        I see that as arguable Mathew. You may very well have a point, but my cash has been buying a lot for awhile now, and I still have my metal.
        Im thinking I increase again around $1100 gold.
        I buy monthly remember, physical and shares are different to me, I actually like Olearys thinking, 5% physical all the time, forget owning mining shares, “worst business managers ever known”.
        But what can I say, “I like the gamble”, even knowing its a totally corrupt game.
        Top to bottom, but really, what isn’t in this “6th stage of empire” as Maloney likes to describe it?

        Actually, the only real truthin Ive seen in the last while has been the Zeitgeist.
        Even the science we have been getting is still debatable.
        Anyway, I ramble, still wondering if we are not seeing the beginning of a slide here.
        Course the guys behind the curtain really could be more powerful than I give them credit.

      Sep 12, 2014 12:51 PM

      JJ WALKED OUT OF HERE because all he did was harrass.

      Sticking and shoving the gold bear case down everyones throat.

      No one liked it. And his pottie mouth.

      All he did was attack everyone

        bb
        Sep 12, 2014 12:03 PM

        Don’t really want to argue HH, only thing I can honestly say about that, is that’s not what I saw.

        Bird and James seem to have a little thicker skin. Thank goodness.

          Sep 12, 2014 12:16 PM

          Hopefully JJ will return one day.

      Sep 12, 2014 12:53 PM

      Pencil me in for a depression once this experiment is finished, bb.

        Sep 12, 2014 12:55 PM

        I mean the money printing, end of the credit cycle and start of the defaults of course….not referring to the ongoing saga of arguments on the board.

    Sep 12, 2014 12:23 PM

    bb – Many years while studying gold there were many good articles and research that pointed out the following:
    gold does well in an inflationary environment
    gold will do well in a deflationary environment, but not at first.

    I believe the natural market forces are CLEARLY DEFLATIONARY and GOLD IS SIGNALING THAT.
    Silver too.

    Yes all other asset prices are rising, that looks inflationary, but it is not.

    If the FED did not intervene we would clearly see Deflation.

    DEFLATION IS NOT A BAD THING THOUGH, BUT BERNANKE, YELLEN AND THE REST OF THE CENTRAL PLANNERS FEAR IT.

    They will do whatever it takes to prevent deflation, including a hyper inflationary currency crisis.

    This is why people who keep expecting gold to go up might be dissapointed.
    the truth is usually below the surface
    the storyline for gold was inflation, but we got deflation

    bb
    Sep 12, 2014 12:34 PM

    thx for responding James, I know this story tho.
    My question, what I ponder, are we entering a new “phase” so to speak.
    When/if we get the market crash predicted, we could drop ? anyones guess? 50% more?
    Baby goes out with the bathwater,gold gets the initial hit etc
    We rebuild from the devestation, so, in that scenario, cash is king for awhile, then the printing truly starts and cash begins to lose purchasing power and gold comes into favor.
    Farmland gets truly valuable etc.
    Maybe Im nuts.

    Sep 12, 2014 12:04 PM

    bb – i cant even speculate on that.

    all i know is these markets are so distorted anything is possible

      Sep 12, 2014 12:02 PM

      BB, my best piece of advice is to steer clear of debt and to start storing up nuts for the winter. Avoid anything with high ongoing servicing costs that drains your resources (Timeshares are an example as are lakeside cabins) and keep your focus on staying stocked up on what matters and keeping as low a profile as possible. Money matters. Stick with the best currencies like CAD or USD for your sanity and build a buffer as big as you can.

        bb
        Sep 12, 2014 12:31 PM

        Totally agree Bird.
        Funny, low profile.
        Stay away from debt.

        My current vehicle was $600, drivin it without problems for 9 mths now.
        Nice dent in the front fender.
        No debt and looowww profile.

        Am I gettin the idea? lol

          Sep 12, 2014 12:49 PM

          Sounds good to me. I actually loved the wrecks I drove in the past. Some were reliable as hell and cheap on gas which counted for a lot when you had regular trips from the farm to town. Everyone is getting so anal about the older cars meeting restrictions and safety and standards though. To the point it takes all the fun out of having a an old beater for basic transport.

    Sep 12, 2014 12:07 PM

    The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.Beware ppl because stock market can remain irrational until the first quarter of next year.My 2 cents.