Comments on the conventional markets, oil, and gold
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Armstrong agrees with Gary on USAWatchdog.com
Speaking of USAWatchdog, what do y’all think of this article?
http://usawatchdog.com/manipulation-of-gold-and-silver-definitely-ends-this-year-harvey-organ/
They say China will run out of silver from use and don’t get it’s leased silver back and cause a default.
Complete and utter rubbish. Wild speculation. Do not believe a word of it. It is about as bad as Sinclair’s ridiculous call for 50,000 dollar gold. Whenever listening in to something like this you need to screw on your thinking cap as tight as possible and leave the tinfoil off.
Take a look at the statistics on Silver supply and demand from none other than the Silver Institute which is the industry representative. Special note is the deficit of 171 million ounces in 2008 which is far higher than today. Note that it did not materially impact prices by the close of 2009.
The Silver Institute Supply and Demand Data 2014 – official.
https://www.silverinstitute.org/site/supply-demand/
Hope you guys don’t mind staying bearish for A VERY LONG TIME.
This PM bull market is deader than dead, the charts alone paint a very clear picture.
Well, I don’t agree with that, Joe. Most of us here are pretty damn sure that once a bottom eventually arrives we should get busy quick getting reinvested. The negative outlook at the moment is pretty much a lot of people blowing off some frustration with the slow pace of a bottoming process. Truth is that most who are still here have not given up hope yet. That includes me.
The miners might have already bottomed.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=W&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p11556814275&a=364035886
so basically, I believe, every time gold blips up you should short it. That’s what hedge funds have been doing for the past 3 years. Once again let the trend be your friend
Very consistent with the bearishness at the low. Thanks.
What makes you so sure these are the lows? We are still in the declining stages of a bear market.
Doc’s voice reminds me of Charlie Mungers.
This isn’t a half cycle low. It will be the daily cycle low. Half cycle lows usually find support around the 20 DMA, while daily cycle lows usually find support around the 50 DMA and crash the Bollinger Bands which is what is happening today. It would be outside the framework of expectations for a half cycle low to occur this late on day 26 of a cycle. The trend line has already been broken.
James,
I tend to agree. We probably need to see the market recover today for this to be a half cycle low. Since it didn’t then it’s probably going to continue down until at least the Scottish vote and form a slightly short daily cycle low.
How long can gold go before low cost producers start to really get hurt badly, $800, what do you think?
should read not long but low.
Translation: PM in a horrible bear market to continue for some time. And move lower indefinitely.
Otherwise all is great!!!!
The near-total view of gold and silver’s continued and unavoidable, prolonged, downward move is, to me, a perfect contrarian indicator. Today, I was a buyer of stocks and physical. Good luck to all.
Smart move in my book.
Premature. I disagree.
How come the hard asset investing forum has turned so bearish? It is not surprising mainstream turned negative years ago. But here? It means something.
You’re right, and it is bullish.
It is called despair. Some people here are still holding positions that are deeply underwater. Some have held so long that their stocks got delisted or went bust. Very few of them got invested in conventional markets either so they got hit two ways. First they got beaten on their holdings and then they lost out to stellar gains that nobody thought possible. That is why it is called despair.
Despair is BULLISH.
Euphoria is BEARISH.
Only at the termination of the cycle! We are not there yet.
“Termination of the cycle” is caused by despair! We’re there.
Very much agreed. Having said that, it is worth remembering the 1999-2002 bottoming process in gold, which was frustrating, so I would argue for patience if anyone is expecting a quick turnaround.
But once again, you have a clear choice between buying something on sale and unloved (the PM sector) versus buying most other asset classes which seem to be priced for something near perfection.
I just missed an ipo: rwlk which I had research a while ago but could not deterimine the start date which was Friday at around $11 and today it hit 40 and ended around 37 I think. The sharp drop in Tesla triggered by an analyst caused an avalanche of selling in the nasdaq taking down the huge gains I had early in the am.
Re: Combating ISIS.
So far:
Australia has committed 600 troops and 8 fighter planes.
France has committed 2 surveillance planes.
A big coalition?