What is the right strategy to play these markets
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Does anyone?
I don’t like Hecla as a proxy. Last time it was heavily oversold it was about $6, but it has more than halved in price since then!
CFS,
We cannot blame Hecla. In the current environment, silver miners will languish since government is trying to suppress the price of PM and bankers are heavily short, so they need to work with government to intervene on the PM price. Even the price goes up since it has to, it can never (big word) go to the level the miners can make significant amount of profit to reinvest in exploration, like base metal did in early 2000s. Without exploration, they are simply exhausting their existing reserve. This is proven by the fact that the mine grade halves in the last 10 years. The best reserves are gone, sold to the market and consumed by electronic industry. They are digging deeper and use up more energy. As the cost goes up 10%-20% year over year, it will be death by thousand cuts. Unless there is a super spike in silver price and stays there for a long time, the primary silver mines are going to struggle and fade away. Survival is the name of the game. The exploration is delegated to the juniors who either have no desire or no capital or no expertise to do exploration, than the whole industry will be choked to death. Rick Rule calls the junior exploration the biggest waste of capital and most inefficient exploration. The current silver production of US is half what it was in 1940s since price was relatively high then (US government used to pay twice of the market price to buy silver from US miners) and it is too low now. In this environment, the best performer must be the companies like Silver Wheaton. That is why I loaded it back last year. I bought it twice prior to 2011. I recall it was $5 and sold at $7 the first time and then I bought it back in 2008 between $3-$15 and sold it between $16-$20 in 2010. All are in Canadian dollar. I did not capture the gain from $20-$50.
I was not blaming HL; merely indicating anomalous chart behavior.
I am really afraid of the silver miners and like their potential. It is a tough decision.
Lawrence…..Great post…..That’s why I am so positive about buying physical silver..I can not understand how some of these company’s manage to stay solvent.
Me either
I am afraid of the, but like their potential. Yeah, that is a tough decision.
Al,
Tony does not understand why these companies survive for so long. I don’t understand either. I believe it mighbe due to private placement and bottom feeders. When we come out of a bear market, they will be very diluted. YIs that right? You don’t have to answer since it is your business.
Nice post Lawrence.
Thanks.
As long as you remain sceptic and scared Lawrence.
You know you will always have a friend here that
supports that.
You can be 100 percent certain.
Heavy, I do have Some silver miners. I tried to get profitable ones but except SLW, all turned red last year and this year after I bought them. This is very hostile environment for miners. However, if price turns around, they can easily up 10 times
Theres nothing to be afraid of Lawrence.
Buy SIL its ETF. Its very cheap and its lots
of value.
You buy value, you can’t lose.
TAKES CONVICTION AND PATIENCE.
You must buy like now when its still cheap.
For me though it has left the station.
Still, its cheap.
Yes, I have a lot of silver trust. I want to have the physical in Canada. I also have sprott precious mineral fund as well as bars. I am more towards physical. Thanks.
Hi HH Thought for a moment our Al had put you back on the naughty step!!
Oh ☆Andrew☆
eeeeoh……..weeeeeeeeeeeeeee….!!!!!!! :◆}
Not even close, Andrew!
And therein Lawrence lies the value in project generators!
What is your alternative?
‘Freakish Rick – now gone up $5.60!
Enjoy the show ☆Andrew☆
Kereport Ringling Bros. Barnum and Bailey Show.
Off Topic: ISIS:
and contains errors. (3 Minnesotans dead so far fighting ISIS)
Fighting ISIS or fighting for ISIS?
Also, I really found the pop up ads to be distracting.
oops Fighting for ISIS
time to short gold some more .
Perhaps in the short run keylime. But then again I have certainly been wrong before!
rick, why are you short the stock market? It’s been up trending for the past 5 years and you are still trying to pick tops? Once again good luck with that trade strategy.
I don’t know why professionals fight the FED. They do. However, there is a potential correction but I don’t see a market crash unless there is an economic collapse like Jim Rickards pointed out. All markets are artificial.
Correction is over. S&P has gone from 1980 to over 2000 now. Oil has turned sharply higher and pulled the whole market up.
Good. I am heavy on oil.
And nervous too.
How about “correction continues”
Oil has finally broken out and the general market can resume the uptrend. I bought back into my rig position as well as added twitter on the sharp dips. Sold my apple position yesterday.
You had to have done really well with Apple!
Not a big gain. I only bought it on the sharp drop last week. I will put the money to work in Alibaba.
Armstrong calling for gold decline to 875-910, with a possible drop to $650. WOWhttp://usawatchdog.com/violent-war-cycles-global-economic-decline-martin-armstrong-4/ sorry if I missed if someone already posted.
Armstrong is deluded.
Gold is money and a hedge against inflation.
Explain then, why do the central banks own it.
Gold is money.
THE GOLD BEAR IS DEAD.
THE GOLD BULL LIVES ON !!!!!!!
Armstrong that drama queen and gold
deluded bear doesn’t scare me.
NOT AT ALL. none of you do.
I don’t know how to make of Armstrong. I used to believe what he said. Since he was released from prison, his tone has changed to be very illusive. His prediction of 1050 gold in 2013 hasn’t materialized. Now he is trying to move it lower? We know he is influential and well connected with his buddies in Wall Street. Based on the scenario he gave in the video about financial crisis, gold should go up. I don’t believe gold as crisis hedge but it is financial crisis hedge. I listened to about half of the interview yesterday but I had to go to sleep.
When looking at the background of his office…………I would question anything he had to say……..his library was a mess…….and most of the books , were catalogs…..OOTB
My head hurts thinking about him. I give up. He is too complicated
Interesting!
Florida State still one of the best football teams in my book in spite of last weekend.
Marty: “Gold is not money, money is whatever society decides it is.” Well, Marty is half right. Money IS whatever society decides it is and society decided on gold long ago. Fiat money is never chosen by society and government is not society. The dollar only lost all of its peg to gold after enough decades had passed that the sheeple forgot why it mattered in the first place. If fiat money was truly selected by the will of the market (the people), then laws that dramatically restrict the use of gold instead of fiat currencies would not be required. The elite have a monopoly on every nation’s money. As long as there is no free market in money (and interest rates!), there can be no truly free market of any kind at all.
Heavy, Greg Hunter was trying to make amends by calling on Armstrong with his $700 dollar predictions or whatever, in contrast to his previous guest – the redoubtable Harvey Organ with his gold $10k by the year end!! It’s Hunter who in calling anyone he doesn’t like a troll who does my head in!
☆Andrew☆ ..I feel the same way.
Greg should have told Marty then why do
central banks own gold.
It was a terrible interview with nothing but
absence of credibility. So thats why I read
between the lines with everything.
I do like Gregg for the most part though. He’s
done some awesome interviews.
Gregg has to be careful as Marty will not return
if he starts pushing their buttons of certain guests.
Especially Jim Willy. Everyone is a moron in his book. lol
The politics ….ya gotta love it. :◆}
That seem a bit too radical for me Bobby!
In all fairness Al you might say that you are not down in much of anything but I don’t think you should make comments like that as it can be deemed as off base, what about your New Zealand energy which has just hit a 52 week low at 8 cents. The risk out there is huge especially for juniors, I know Bob Moriarty likes to make mention of his winners but he has also had some big loosers like CMB Asia.
Heavy Hitter just out of curiosity why do you think gold is money? By definition gold is not money and probably never will be money.
Well, theoretically it is if you look at constitution. Who cares though.
Aristotle defined the characteristics of a good form of money:
1.) It must be durable. Money must stand the test of time and the elements. It must not fade, corrode, or change through time.
2.) It must be portable. Money hold a high amount of ‘worth’ relative to its weight and size.
3.) It must be divisible. Money should be relatively easy to separate and re-combine without affecting its fundamental characteristics. An extension of this idea is that the item should be ‘fungible’. Dictionary.com describes fungible as:
“(esp. of goods) being of such nature or kind as to be freely exchangeable or replaceable, in whole or in part, for another of like nature or kind.”
4.) It must have intrinsic value. This value of money should be independent of any other object and contained in the money itself.
5) And it should taste good! 😉
So far its has since Dec. 2013.
Keylime, its been money for thousands of years.
The West in the last hundred years has put up
a smoke screen.
When the smoke clears and the herd realizes all
it was is a BLUFF…. which it is. Then the moment
you discover with the herd it was a bluff, it will be
too late.
Gold will have already possibly appreciated and
so to speak …once Eldorado is discovered its to
to late.
Just like stocks and real estate right now its already
been discovered. The gains are in and declines are
coming. High high odds. No guarantees but the odds
say fools and their money soon part in those markets.
THEY SLOWLY STARTED KILLING REAL MONEY IN 1913…..That’s when the BIG con & brainwashing began……The ROTHCHILD plan was pure genius.
Real Estate………..parking spots in NYC garages……$1MILLION PER SPACE…..I smell overheated……
Jerry…
THE COYOTE HAS LEFT THE CLIFF..
Big down turn in RE coming. Prices are buckling
in many areas. The bubble areas have lots to worry
about.
Hope your doing well. Gold is the asset of choice
next few years. IMHO
I do follow RE closely and the top is in I believe.
When everyone hates RE again I will be a buyer.
The herd believes prices can never go down ..lol
HH………..I agree………and I hope you are doing well….
Also, when foreigners are net sellers. ….
I think its coming soon…its gonna be ugly.
Interest rates are the big surprise waiting
in the wings.
Rates will rise within 24 months max.
IMHO
It will be just like when the Japanese bought in 1990 in California……over priced and over paid………..now, look at them…….FUKIE SHAME ON THEM……..
Thanks Jerry.
That parking space story. I heard that over
the weekend.
Top is in Jerry. Sure sign.
Plus many others.
HH…………I agree………..
Is that gold is money???? It’s not. It’s not accepted as money anywhere.
keylime: I guess you never traveled outside North America
Most people in the world accept gold as store of value, which is the most important characteristics fiat does not have. The reason is it cannot be printed at will. As for currency, digital is the most convenient, so credit card becomes popular. However, holding value in fiat can be really troubling. So people in North America are trapped. The peaceful life and government credibility (or successful propaganda) has convinced them that fiat is the safe haven. When this is all over, people may be impoverished. Not trying to be scary. I don’t see anywhere else people are so unprepared.
Keylime, we will all find out soon enough.
Stay tuned !!!!
Gold being money is a great debate.
I like it as money, but lots of people disagree, key has a good point, a cup of coffee cant be bought with it in N.America.
I like to see it as “gold is money” (silver maybe) and everything else currency.
Ultimatly, we can use anything as currency to facilitate business, and all that’s really required of it is its ability to pay taxes.
Arguments going both ways can be made, but eventually, once we mine space, every mineral etc we can dream of will be in abundance.
The conversation might have a bit of a different tone then.
Another day another reason for the gold bear to continue.
Stocks explode pre fomc.
Gold fails for the second day in a row to take out $1240
The level I said is now hard resistance, even though some refuse to accept this
HH I see you are still trying to CHEERLEAD gold up
James, my indicator is still bright green.
Nothing has changed.
HH please check the batteries or the wires, you might have a short
What would you like me to do, James
If the indicator turns light green
or amber, red.
Gold will be on hold or sell.
This isn’t a game. Its serious
business. Now lets maintain
the bright green indicator.
Also who says real estate is topping?
Real estate is going absolutely bonkers where I live
Brooklyn, Manhattan, Staten Island, the Bronx, queens are all on fire
If you aren’t on you are getting completely shut out while gold destroys your chance to maintain purchasing power
James, there are select places where real estate is on fire, NYC yes but Rochester NY, NO!
In Canada real estate is only doing well in Vancouver, Toronto, and Calgary. That has always been the story location, location, and location.
I would have to agree with you DT……….
From what I have read….. a lot of the high priced real estate is being purchased by Chinese and Russian money……..and not owner occupied…….
If you get off your chair James go into
the trenches its not what people are seeing.
You listen to old news maybe. The signs are
there the market is deaccelerating and cooling
off.
I notice you don’t do much with research. In RE
you have to get up out of your rocker.
THIS IS NOT ROCK A BYE BABY. Get out there.
I don’t need to listen to the news. I see it everyday with my own two eyes.
I’m too young for a rocker.
In nyc real estate is booming, restaurants are packed, new businesses are opening up all over.
Entire neighborhoods are being transformed and reinvented.
People have money and are spending it
If the crater is starting to hit the west coast
as it is now the east coast is not far behind.
Stock market is also a huge function of prosperity
in that area.
GUESS WHAT JAMES….that party is coming to an end.
Its all way over valued RE and stocks.
Poop chute follows.
When and if the party comes to an end everything goes down with it
From what I am seeing that includes gold and silver as we’ll.
No one or mo asset is spared
Depends James.
I don’t agree at this time. We are coming out
of a 3 year grouling bear market.
Gold is not sitting at near rally highs. Its down
for 3 years.
Also, your being blind sided. Everything in the food
markets is expensive. RE and stocks ezploded.
JAMES, WE HAVE LOTS OF INFLATION.
Gold is not going to buckle like the ameteur
board thinks in many posts.
Could have a scare with gold tanking 50
only sky rocket.
GOLD BEAR IS DEAD.
THE GOLD BULL LIVES ON.
if you believe anything else you have been hood winked.
We have rising prices, but we do not have inflation.
Inflation is not rising prices, it is an increase in the money supply.
Without velocity of money we have no increase.
The FED can end QE because other countries will pick up the slack and buy our treasuries.
The FED is in the proverbially sweet spot.
The market is keeping rates down for them and doing there job.
We have massive deflation, gold and silver, and now oil, is making that abundantly clear
I don’t know James but I was at the food store
today and prices are going up again.
They seemed to come down last several weeks
only to go back up.
Stocks, RE, automobiles etc have all increased in
price.
I don’t buy the bear case in PM’s. NOT AT ALL.
GDXJ the leader or juniors have lead this market.
All up last 2 days substantially.
You are either blind or don’t want to see.
I can’t guarantee the outcome but I don’t
see the dangers the board is suggesting.
You really should just relax. In 6 months
you will be wondering…what was I thinking.
This time make sure you sell at the appropriate
time. If your very long term 2 to 5 years and get
out. Shorter term in a few months to 6 months.
Or 2 years at the most if you want to make
great gains and be gone.
Its tough to say until we get closer.
HH we will see
Tomorrow’s fomc meeting and Yellen testimony will give us some more clues to digest
Your right James. Regardless though.
I don’t believe they can keep it held
together without printing away.
They don’t have a magic wand and
its going to be the same.. PRINT !!!
Nonetheless, we will see.
Have a good nite. GO GOLD…its going to be OK.. :◆}
U2
Hope you Gold Bulls are correct.
A sub $1000 buck gold price for any extended time would be catastrophic for some of the Junior Miners I personally hold.
A large portion of them would disappear faster than a Bride’s nightwear.
I believe PMs are in a bottoming process. I have no idea how long it will take.