The Three Musketeers Weigh In On Today’s Market
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I think they will raise rates and it won’t hurt the economy. I heard these same comments in 2004.
The difference this time is the amount of debt, private and public.
A significant rise in rates will also kill the dollar, and bankrupt cities/states which have expanded borrowing because of low rates.
Cannot disagree.
A rise in interest rates relative to other low yielding currencies is historically dollar positive. Of course it matters why rates are rising, so there are obviously very different ramifications if it’s because of a strengthening economy vs. a US debt downgrade.
I agree with you there Gary. The premise that a modest rate rise will take down the economy is just silly.
I agree also.
I think the takeaway is to stay diversified. No one knows when the markets will turn. In my opinion as a long-term investor I personally hold 10-15% in gold, 10-15% in cash, and keep the rest in diversified high dividend stocks.
Seems to me I have heard that term used somewhere before!
Re: The conventional market vs. Precious metals:
The conventional market will and can be raised indefinitely by printing.
It has been done before in the Weimar Republic; the problem is that even though stocks rise, the rise will not keep pace with the inflation that will develop. Initially general stock investments will, on average, do well, but not later.
The precious metal market, however, needs physical metal to keep low….and physical supply is finite. Eventually it will run out.
CFS, totally agree. This is common sense, which we are so lacking now. JP Morgan said they are doing god’s work, but they are not god. God can create physical PM but they can not. but they can print infinite amount fiat money to boost the stock market, directly or indirectly.
I think a lot depends on where the recipients of the inflation are putting their money. The bankers and government are the biggest recipients of the approximate $5 Trillion that has been printed. The bankers are buying stocks and bonds, and the government is putting it in the pockets of their various interests/cronies.
The ship has hit a real bottom……………..or LOW…………when the cast , wants to cast off for better climate…….in the hot air of the market, ,, the trade winds,,,,are blowing everyone off course…………………OOTB, OR out of troubled breezes
Well said Jerry.
I have learned in these precious metals markets
very rarely anyone makes any money.
Why, …when precious metals explode its going
to leave them breathless. Explosion in prices is
coming and I firmly believe within 6 to 8 months
at the most.
Its going to be an explosion but very few participates.
THIS IS THE WAY ITS ALWAYS BEEN.
Bloggers, analysts, investors, speculators and
the great majority will all be left out.
Nothing has changed in precious metals in 35 years.
Hope your doing well Jerry. This is no time to catch
that hot air in that trade wind you speak of. Fortunes
are coming in the metals. Bulls need to hang on.
ITS ALWAYS BEEN THAT WAY. Or bulls go home losers.
NOT ME !!!!! Not listening to the BS. No way.
HH……I agree……….this time it is going to shake there booties off……and stocking feet are going to get bruised …….if you catch my drift……………see ya mate…
there…..should be their…..but, who cares anyways…….
btw…………thanks…………..j………..
Thats funny Jerry…shake their booties off.lol
Yep, Jerry its all one grand delusion to confuse
the masses.
Everyone is confused. Well, except for us.
Handful of others here.
I smell the explosive nature of the metals
coming soon.
The herd is being herded. :◆}
Enjoy your evening Jerry. Thanks for…
Great post regarding trade winds.
Its damn true.
I herd that…………
thanks HH….glad you liked it…………..j
I did Jerry. The analogy was 2 thumbs up and ★★★★★.
:◆}
I doubt we are going to get any explosive move. A market with this much technical damage isn’t going to explode higher. It’s going to take a lot of time to build any momentum. This is what happened during the last bull. When gold finally bottomed in 76 it took 2 years to get back to the old highs, and another year and a half before the bubble phase really took off.
You doubt Gary ?
So you don’t really know.
Here’s what you can do Gary. You wanna know what that is.
KEEP YOUR OPINION !!!!!!!!!
Want to know what you can do with it ?
DO I HAVE TO TELL YOU ????
OK, now go. We have nothing more to discuss.
Heavy, he is probably right on this. Even James pointed out that there were three closing below 1240 which makes it a good probability that is the new resistance.
My point is Birdman the answer should be much more
precise than a ..i doubt or possibly.
Precious metals are notorious for turning around with
huge rallies. Really, no one knows for sure.
Gary does not know for sure. I see it coming but we’ll
see. In fact, I say its coming. No doubts.
I don’t like wishy washy analysis. Its very unprofessional.
As posters its not our responsibility. But Gary is responsible.
Unless he’s very certain don’t post it. Thats my opinion.
Its either going to go down or just be quiet. Otherwise,
I’m feeling that person doesn’t know anymore than anyone
else.
HH,
Gold took 2 years to get back to the old highs after the final bottom in 76 and then another year and a half before the bubble phase really took off. So history suggests there will be no sudden out of the blue explosive move.
Gary, 1976. OK
However not basing my good fortunes on that.
Thats up to you. Gold equites and other indicators
I use suggest this is a SET UP.
We both live in 2 different worlds Gary. 1976 has nothing
to do with this current market.
I was joking around and mentioned 1976 in my Tom Dooley
post. Not even thinking about 1976 and now.
I MEAN, I DON’T CARE.
gary…………we are already three years down………….
I would say we are about to experience a new phase , when the master of the ship wants to change course…………..that is a low………….
Its not use Jerry.
He’s brainwashed just like the pack. Seen the
best of market timers/analysts miss entire
bull markets in precious metals.
This is typical near major moves. Everyone
jumps on the same bandwagon.
He has admitted to being a doubter.
WE HAVE ALL DOUBTERS AND BEARS …just about.
The best news we could possibly have. It’s perfect.
Correction. Its no use Jerry.
TYPO…
As Jean-Baptiste Karr once said; “Plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose.”Or as Bon Jovi has sung;
The more things change the more they stay the same
Ah, is it me or does anybody see
The new improved tomorrow isn’t what it used to be.
Yesterday keeps coming round, it’s just reality.
It’s the same damn song with a different melody.
The market keeps on crashing, …..
Chris, my understanding is we extended $18 trillion in credit & swaps to Europe back in 2009-10. I still haven’t heard anyone critique that amount and its whereabouts now.
Those $ swaps, in part, have been what has come back into $ assets to support Treasuries during the Fed taper.
HH an explosion in precious metals is coming.
We already had an explosion in precious metals. Now it blew up
James..remember. ..I’m on leave.
However, if your free consultation time
with Matthew is not used up, I’m sure
he can answer any doubts you may have.
Just a suggestion or consult with Birdman.
Explosion is on schedule. No doubt in my mind.
Thank you for your cooperation and enjoy a relaxing evening.
HH
All time highs for the major market indices on thin volume smell a lot like 1987.
Volume looks normal to me once traders got back from the labor day holiday.
Hi guys, it was a short time away but much needed.
So where do I begin?
Let me start off by saying that as early as yesterday and today I started getting the goosebumps and nervousness that I did not have for the past three years of this bear decline in gold. What does that mean? It means that sentiment/mood/body language and gestures from guru to yellen etc etc smells like the beginning or very close to the beginning of a major turning event within 4-8 weeks.. Maybe 4-6.. The November 4th date represents many things as you all know I have spoken of that date for quite sometime regarding equities being allowed to rise into that date. I’ve spoken about that for many months now as many now just seem to figure it out.
I believe the timing band of cycle”s “gary’s work ” and indicators which I follow and seem to align with Richard “DOC”, are coming together at the most precise moment.
For the record i’m still on the sidelines. How could one not be? It’s still a falling knife and the indicators are screaming that. With that said however im beginning to see opportunity. I will give you some of the reason why I have not entered. A few weeks back or a week or two ago I mentioned they where walking her down. That meant that the mm’s and bankers where slowly crushing the miners day by day. Nothing has changed. It’s like hope begins to fade away.
What do I notice? Volume is decent and at times average while miners grind lower.
What else do i see? The bid is getting ramped up on more volume then the ask. In other words the bid is overwhelming the ask. = lower prices.
When I see volume come to a complete stop or dry up and ask overwhelms bid then it will be a really good sign we have some type of turn. We are getting very close.
Also I promised that I would let all you know when I purchase. Not that anyone cares but because I put my money where my mouth is, and I have been doing it consistently. I like what I see and more so I like when the book value is 2/3 below. Im starting to see this on a few miners and its starting to scream at me. I may pull the trigger as early as tomorrow but if i don’t feel it, it may have to wait. I think the miners put in a bottom by the first week of october. Could be as early as next week like doc says.
In conclusion i mentioned a tripple bottom at 1179/1180 could be the final low.
That target is based on november timeline frame for me. If we move towards that target by the end of this week fairly quickly then odds are we break through it.. At this point Im favouring october as a bottoming/sideways month and after november 4th, momentum change with gold. Time will tell.
At the risk of being extremely rude, when the korelin economics report starts sounding bearsish on gold at 1200 and bullish on the stock market at S&P 2000+, an important trend change in the our future.
You are not rude you are absolutely correct. As a regular listener to the KE report I had to listen twice then pinch myself to make sure I was not dreaming. Technical analysis is starting to make as little sense as fundamentals. Buffett and Sam Zell are exiting the market/ taking up short positions and Gary thinks the S&P is the place to be as the Fed has your back. I think not.
I thought the same thing, Ryan J!
Spot on and very funny too.
I meant is in the future
Just listened in to the show. Wow, one of the best ever. Some times the remarks you guys make really surprise me. This is a big change from the conversation of the past months though and it makes me wonder if it is not the beginning of retail interest in stock markets finally getting underway.
One thing seems crystal clear right now…we are going to retest the lows on gold. That will happen whether we have an interim bounce back or not. The real question though is will the two prior lows hold or will gold break lower. Odds now favour a technical failure as what we are seeing is a third attempt for gold to find its bottom rather than two attempts to reassert a bull market trend. There is also a really great opportunity to smash the silver longs and send them fleeing. The contrarian in me says to go short silver. A breakdown here would send a shudder through the metals crowd and bring on a crisis of their most core beliefs.
At what $ price then (in your opinion) is the current Gold Bull market dead Heavy Hitter ?
I’m watching the gold equites. Again…
said it many times. Right now they
suggest gold is not in the trouble
everyone thinks.
Its now wait and see.
Also, other indicators saying we are near a bottom.
This is a…SET UP. I believe.
Why did the dollar rise and yields rise yesterday? The strength of the USD is a relative comparison against the other major currency pairs. Yellen confirmed yesterday that the taper was going to continue so what we have is a Fed that is continuing to tighten while the ECB and the BOJ are expected to continue to get easier. Look for confirming data of slowing growth/weakening labor markets in the US or Draghi/Kuroda either announcing or changing expectations to reverse this trend. Bonds on the other hand were affected by the outlook for a rate increase. While Yellen didn’t back away from a rate increase, she kept in dovish language that the market expected to be removed (keep rates near zero for a “considerable” time). The Fed also threw the bond market a curve ball by increasing rate projections from 1.125 to 1.375 at the end of 2015. In other words, the Fed implied that they would wait longer to raise rates but would increase them more aggressively when they chose to do so. The selloff in bonds therefore occurred at longer durations. If you look at the yield curve, investors actually bought the 1Yr and sold off the 2Yr most aggressively which is the area where tightening cycle expectations were being modified.
I am surprised FED still have credibility after they misled people so much, especially future forecast. Unbelievable brain deadness on the part of people. I don’t even trust what they say they are doing. Or all of these just propaganda and market movement are made?
I love Bernanke’s Fed Open Mouth Committee word(FOMC)
Those rate rise forecasts mean diddly. They might as well be 21.375%. Yellen surprisingly made plain that SHE is more in charge than is commonly thought, and that all the added hawkish talk is no more than that.
Of course it means diddly, as does all the Fed’s long-term forecasts. All of their projections are based on lagging indicators which is why they are always behind the curve. However if you trade govvies, these semantics move prices in the short term.
My interpretation of Yellen’s comments are a bit different. Yellen tried to get the market refocused on the fact that the Fed’s decisions will be data-dependent and that the dots are nothing more than estimates or projections. The Fed’s decisions have always been data dependent so why did she need to reemphasize that now? Well the market had virtually ignored the dots for the longest time when they were introduced and focused almost exclusively on employment and growth data. After all, the Fed said that rates would stay low until they hit the 6.5% unemployment threshold until they realized they would hit that number much sooner. With the introduction of a possible rate increase a few months back, the market and the media suddenly became fixated on the dots to determine the timing of a rate hike. The market started to push up expectations for a rate increase even sooner then the fed participant’s estimates as expressed by the dots. Suddenly the Fed went from pleading that the market look at the dots (and not the employment data) to every regional president and Fed mouthpieces like Hilsenrath trying to de-emphasis the dots in recent weeks. When the market failed to listen, Yellen just had to come right out and re-emphasize that the Fed will be data-dependent again. Oh and BTW, in the same testimony she also downgraded the Fed’s growth projections said that the job market has yet to fully recover. For those not versed in Fed gibberish, it simply means that rates aren’t going anywhere unless growth and employment surprise to the upside regardless of what the dots say.
True or False: The biggest gains in a bull market are made in the “ninth inning”.
Correct. The biggest gains occur at the beginning and the end.
Yes indeed, thanks, Gary. My gut tells me the ninth inning is just ahead of, during, or immediately after the November mid-term elections. I guess the trick would be figuring out which one of those “options” would be most conducive to gains. If I had to pick, think I’d go with “immediately after”.
Al, thanks for calmly mentioning the importance of “branching out” within the context of your experience. That keeps me grounded. Having said that, I also like to project out over future horizons that are sort of under the radar. My question is: What do you (or anyone else here) think of GRAPHENE?
About a year ago I invested in a tiny, tiny company that was essentially left for dead, but suddenly got a pop from a University of California/Santa Barbara partnership that was brought to light over the last couple days. I’d like to think it’s my Babe Ruth/Hank Aaron moment; having struck out more times than I care to remember…
They have to raise rates.Credit agencies are breathing down the fed’s neck.However they will raise them gradually like they did with tapering of qe.And btw if the fed starts raising the interest rates the ecb will hold theirs at status quo for a prolonged time to substitute the fed.Nevertheless beware from jumping into the stockmarket because you might be late to the party.When the last uberbear turn to a bull and when the taxi driver or show shine boy tells you to buy stock then you better get into cash and stay on the sidelines.My 2 cents.
HUI gap 212 next in line.. If your patience is good most often then none gaps will fill…
I just want to add to others that I feel the fed has successfully managed to get most 75-80% a number out of my hat, to jump on the equities wagon. They really have done a master job at convincing people.. All is good.. Low rates for years to come with the ability to extend it. End of qe, economy blooming etc etc.. Dow over 17,000 with the economy in good shape we must be headed towards 20,000? When everyone is on one side of the trade like a herd one begins to worry.
cash on sidelines is the place to be right now.
BTW, uranium up another $1.25 yesterday. Just sayin’….
I’m with ya on that one, Dan… I’m lovin’ a little $URA play!
I have been liking UEX but it has disapointed me. I cannot figure out why their reserve and their association with Cameco does not help them. It used to be $9 stock now 30-40 cents.
My biggest holding is Denison and cameco by far. DML may have big upside momentum but CCO will not.
Is it on Monday not Wednesday?
Doh. I stand corrected (;-) Wednesday…
212 gap=check
Next in line is 205 gap…We are headed lower
Oversold but has more room down IMHO.
This must be the chart you are referring to.
Will watch that one too. I have bought into UWE.
Very close to nibbling guys.. Not yet.. but very close..
Doc what are you seeing out there?
My major bid is still Central Fund Canada’s Silver Bullion Trust – SBT.UN.To. The current bid is just two cents above mine. I am looking to accumulate enough so when these silver trusts (Sprott and SBT.UN) have enough premium, I am going to sell to exchange for physical.
Sh*t, why price goes up to spoil my game. Too bad.
Got a partial fill of 100 shares. This market is so thin even on this flush out day.
Glen, not yet. I’m not even considering it until the end of September. Then based on the technicals, I’ll make a decision. I’ll always let you know when start to buy again.
Doc,
The opening of Shanghai Gold Exchange International Exchange ahead of previous schedule so much ahead of schedule surprises me. I am not even sure whether it involves silver or not. Chinese language is terrible on this word since gold can mean gold only, gold and silver, or money in general. Do you know anything about whether silver is also traded?
Sorry for the repeated words. I was using iPhone
Thanks Doc, appreciate your insights..
Folks must also understand that central banks will do hitherto unacceptable things to give the appearance that they want.
They will buy stocks if they want to, in order to “improve” the economy.
You must understand that they cannot raise rates without destroying the economy. Ergo they will not raise rates.
All is a mirage……trust no one, trust nothing.