Minimize

Welcome!

An ‘impromptu’ technical analysis session on gold from Rick Ackerman

September 19, 2014

Click here to listen to a recording provided exclusively to us from Rick Ackerman.

“Bullion assets continue to plumb new depths each week, and Silver futures in particular appear to have dropped off the edge this morning. For a clear, precise and timely technical picture of what could lie ahead, as well as some stock picks that you may find interesting, check out this recording. It runs just under an hour and is of an ‘impromptu’ technical analysis session held Friday morning, September 19.”

Discussion
31 Comments
    Sep 19, 2014 19:39 PM

    thanks for all your input…invaluable as always!

    Sep 19, 2014 19:16 PM

    BUY SILVER !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Here I go again, the madirish fella telling everybody to buy silver…………..
    Apart from water & food , & oil ,silver is one of the most important commodities in the world today……..So buy it .

      Sep 19, 2014 19:23 PM

      Anybody out there want to lend my a few million £..$..Yuan……For 2 years @ 3% per annum……..I wish to buy a load of silver…..

    CFS
    Sep 19, 2014 19:39 PM

    From Harvey Organ:
    “The total silver Comex OI astonishingly rose again by a huge 1,441 contracts despite the fact that silver was down yesterday to the tune of 24 cents. Tonight the silver OI complex rests at 173,513 contracts. In ounces, this represents 868 million oz or 124% of silver annual production. In commodity law generally the OI is represented by 3 to 5% of annual production. These silver contracts are in very strong hands and as I have indicated to you on countless occasions, this will continue to bring nightmares to our bankers. Probably this is as good a reason as ever for the bankers to raid on a continual basis trying to force those longs to puke their interests. We are now in the next big delivery month of September and here, the OI for September fell by 9 contracts down to 380 contracts. We had 9 notices filed yesterday so we neither gained nor lost any silver contracts or silver oz that will stand for the September contract month.
    The December silver contract tonight rests at 128,798 contracts for a gain of 744 contracts. No doubt the December contract month may provide all the fireworks if our major entity tries to take delivery of much of the comex silver. The estimated volume today was strong at 64,898. The confirmed volume yesterday was very good at 48,078 contracts.”

    It does not make much sense to me that open interest is rising at a time when price is going down.

      Sep 20, 2014 20:42 AM

      YAWN! Interesting perhaps with silver open interest rising onthe way down, a bit like the open interest falling on the way up in Oct/Nov 2010 because of excessive short covering (panic short coering?) as silver went from around $24 to $30 if I recall correctly. That was a disorderly rise. I called it the November 5th fireworks in silver when I saved the chart at the time. Not long after, silver went to $49. However, now it is 18!!!
      Regardless of that, these kinds of commentary are utterly mindnumbingly tedious and are for the conspiracy buffs only who just fail to realise that it is a bear market, plain and simple and silver should never have gone to $49. It was a bubble.

      It’s only just dawned on me in recent weeks that if Silver Wheaton can by silver strams at $5 an ounce then how can sliver possibly be worth anything like $50? Or even $30? Or even $20? Please answer that one someone!

      My take on that fact is that the whole mining industry got into an insane bubble and disappeared up its own bunghole. Selling a metal that was trading at between 15 anbd 50 for 5 an ounce is s surer sign of desperate need for cash by the sellers to raise money for projects that would not otherwise get financing. It iwastotal bubble mentality but ironically it was a kind of hedging activity too.

      A lot more miners are going to have ti go out of business before this bear is over. What is the count so far on John Kaiser’s list of the walking dead companies? How many of them have actually keeled over? Very few yet I guess because we haven’t heard of the demise of any names yet. So the real meat has not yet been fed to this bear market.

        Sep 20, 2014 20:24 PM

        So true Dave. That was a great post worthy of the time to write it. I agree with you on the price that streamers are paying. If silver is really worth 50 bucks then why in hell would any sane manager sell it for a mere five?

    CFS
    Sep 19, 2014 19:49 PM

    The LBMA has just published its last GOFO data. As of Monday it will cease to publish such data.

    CFS
    Sep 19, 2014 19:22 PM
    SFC
    Sep 19, 2014 19:28 PM

    Very disappointed with the Scots….very disappointed with silver…very disappointed with gold…very disappointed…ah, never mind…very disappointed with a lot of things…

    SFC
    Sep 19, 2014 19:31 PM

    Sure has some fancy pants charting software there…and who is the purdy hidden pivot girl?

    Aggressive bottom fishing, eh? I dunno, the last time I fished for bottoms things got pretty smelly.

    SFC
    Sep 19, 2014 19:09 PM

    Who was the guy who yelled shut up???

    Sep 19, 2014 19:20 PM

    James says gold bottomed today at $1212.

    WHERE IS YOUR PROOF JAMES ??????

    Any evidence supporting these claims. ?

    Absolutely no commentary with his 1212 bottom.

    It may have James. Its nice though to have all the
    supporting documents and information.

    I have provided all my proof in my claims until the
    gold equities fad their gains gold has limited downside.

    Maybe you are using my analysis. You use a lot of my
    verbiage in your posts. Finito etc.

    WHAT GIVES JAMES…where did you find this
    bottom. Or how did you arrive that we hit bottom.

    Get in the ring James. Or are you gonna run scared.

    Ah, that’s ok, you probably found a soft pillow.

    Rough day in gold. Go back to sleep. You need a break.

    Probably feeling weak in the knees too. BAD DAY !! I know.

    Gold is going to the moon. When it does launch few will be in.

    You know it and I know it. DEBATE OVER…..finito

    Sep 19, 2014 19:34 PM

    Thank you Rick, that was a very good and informative session.

      Sep 19, 2014 19:43 PM

      Big divergence. Silver may have broke down but the futures
      Oct. Gold contract did not. Lots of smart money has moved
      in with big volume overwhelming sellers. Its been going on
      for several weeks. Gold equites are holding.

      Gold also is holding up against silver. However, silver will probably
      appreciate much more than gold once we change trend.

        Sep 20, 2014 20:44 AM

        Erik Swartz at….marketanthropology.com

        Subject : EXPECTATION GAP….in notes tab.

        Accurately predicted the June 2013 low in gold
        Dec. 2013 and June 2014.

        Now predicting a low in gold now. Hope this helps.

        Erik is an exceptional brainy guy. Genius ? maybe.

        I’m staying off the weekend show board. The bears
        don’t want to hear this anyway. Not going to get in
        to it. Its loaded with negativity.

          Sep 20, 2014 20:11 AM

          I agree with Erik. I think PSLV’s 5.23% premium to NAV indicates smart money accumulating aggressively. At the oversold lows of 2013, it traded at a discount to NAV. Given all the dumb money fear at the moment, you would think that the premium would at least be much lower if not negative.

            Sep 20, 2014 20:27 AM

            Good comments Matthew. You fully understand Erik. :◆}

            Also your right Dan K. hit the nail on the head.

            Along with Peter G. Doc. commented GDXJ and some
            gold equities have held up well. GFI was unchanged.
            Doc. says he is taking positions and likes what he sees.

            BTW…good luck on the weekend board…lol…

            Sep 20, 2014 20:52 AM

            Thanks! 🙂

            Sep 20, 2014 20:30 PM

            Dumb money eh? When you say dumb money next time maybe preface that with the word solvent. People who have been blindly listening to guys like you have been getting killed in both metals and miners for a few years already. Look at Friday as one example. But you *claimed* to be buying GDXJ on Wednesday and Thursday. So how did that work out for you?…..we only hear the puffing and back patting about profits and gains. No talky talky about losing plays though. Hmmmm Matthew?

            Sep 20, 2014 20:54 PM

            Matthew, don’t pay attention to Bird.

            Heres something important. Maybe you read this.

            Gold-eagle….gold and silver current price is the story.

            By Michael Noonan.

            This sums things up very well. Michael is a super sharp guy.

            However, read the whole article because we have a bullish under tone.

            He’s not taking on either case for gold because we are still in a possible
            down trend but that could reverse. For valid reasons too.

            Sep 20, 2014 20:07 PM

            Look Bird…look at a major gold producer like Goldfields. GFI
            Stock is 4.27 was 3.00 in Dec. 2013. Only one example

            I do respect the bear case for gold Bird. However, its not become
            evident yet these low price predictions are coming.

            There is a chance but it’s not showing up in the market. GFI
            would be fueled to the downside if gold was in trouble. Followed
            and owned this stock for more than 18 years.

            GDXJ is holding. Still, I’m not saying 1000 gold or so is not possible.
            We have a lot of inflation in many things. Cost of living is now expensive.
            Last 2 years we have gone from lower cost of living to high.

            Precious metals is dangerous. So its very wise to be prudent.
            Also, its wise to look at the opportunity. Risk tolerance is a
            big factor and precious metals is high risk. There is no doubt.
            The returns though can be phenomenal.

            With such high returns precious metals is far from an
            easy investment. Its the most difficult.

            Sep 20, 2014 20:31 PM

            I think too Bird.

            This gold bull does take off its suppose to leave
            everyone in the dust.

            Do we just get anemic bounce. If so, I believe its
            going back down. The gold equities should start
            leading the way.

            So until then, the gold bull is not broken. Or best put
            the gold bear is not finished.

            Sep 20, 2014 20:18 PM

            Yes, Bird, I was buying BEFORE Friday’s lows. That’s what you do when you see a great deal and don’t know for sure if it will become an even better deal. Friday’s purchase of GDXJ was seven times the size of the total previous position. ONLY a fool would call those “losing plays” after a few days. Do day-traders accumulate positions on weakness?! LOL!!!
            A helluva lot of chartists missed the last three big rallies due to their “discipline” —if that works for them, good, but those who did as I did this year are up substantially.

            Sep 20, 2014 20:19 PM

            I’ll check out that article, HH. Thanks.

    Sep 20, 2014 20:23 AM

    So there is definitely a problem here Al (and Cory and Sarah). Now the Weekend show will not load for me so I cannot listen in or read the thread. Whatever changes you made yesterday seem to have worked though because all the other threads can now be accessed. Maybe just as well…I don’t have anything left to say since all my major predictions about gold retesting the lows, about the dollar rising strongly, about the Euro decline murdering metals etc have all come true or are near completion.

      Sep 20, 2014 20:45 AM

      Ok….it works now. Thank you.

    Sep 20, 2014 20:21 AM

    Interestnmg that Rick admits that he bought some physical aty $40. At least I sold a bit of mine at that price instead! I could not stomach buying silver over 30 and I am very glad I didn’t

    All I see is that the silver I bought for $9 lets say is probably going to get back close to $9 and not go up very quickly from there.

    My targets for what they are worth for the bear market are the 2008 lows for gold and silver: $680 gold and $8.40 silver. Maybe gold will stop at $890, since that is a 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the entire bull run and is also the 21 January 1980 futures high – wonderful symmetry over a 35 year period, (Bob Hoye has previously said he thought that Au:Ag ratio could go to 100 on the next credit crisis and that would do it.)

    I think gold might do a little better but silver neesds to be thoroughly flushed to get all those idiot silver bugs from the $40+ days completely out of the game at a huge loss.

      Sep 20, 2014 20:58 AM

      I believe Rick’s purchase at $40 was almost 35 years ago. That’s why he said that it always stuck with him when he had to sell at a much lower price. He wouldn’t word it that way if it was just three years ago.

      Sep 22, 2014 22:38 AM

      $38 dollar was the starting point I sold a lot of silver and nearly all my silver stocks. I am not sure why anyone buy it at $40 unless you try to catch the trend. Trend is your enemy, at least for silver. It is entertaining to see how many people are bearish at the bottom. This is supposed to be a hard asset investment site. It is amasing. At least now it is much closer to the low (assuming it is $10) than to the highs ($49).

    Sep 20, 2014 20:37 AM

    Now here’s an interesting factoid onthe down day in silver on Friday 19 September 2014:
    silver -3.9% gold -0.70% and copper +0.15%

    Maybe that us an extreme, with, silver bugs really being flushed as we watch so maybe a tradeable bounce can come soon.

    This is the opposite of the silver action at $30 and near to $50 where silver outperformed gold not the usual 1.5-2x but by 5 oir even 6x on some days. Now we are seeing the same action on the way down but inverted of course, silver underperforms gold by 5x. Maybe this is ultimately bullish for bottom fishers but the 5x outperformance sttared a way before the price top on the way up, maybe around $30 and well as near $50 at the very peak – so 5x underperfoamce is not proof of a bottom presumably.

    Peter L Brandt on the kereport show last weekend who talked about possible silver low $13 and gold at $1000 (Au:Ag ratio was be 77, sounds feasible) said silver is mainly an industrial metal but this Friday it really underperformed copper!

    It is thereofe clear that the bugs are getting squashed in silver because it has underperformed both industrial metals (Cu Ni Al Zn Pb ) and precious metals (Au, Pt, Pd and Rh) with the 2nd worst being palladium at -2.2% on Friday.

      Sep 20, 2014 20:37 AM

      There are so many silver longs on one side of the boat that it only makes sense to squeeze them until they finally cry uncle and bail out in pain. Guess we will have to wait and see how long it actually takes before they capitulate and give up. Losses are mounting steeply though. There is tax time I suppose.