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Is Gold’s date with $1,050 around the corner

September 22, 2014

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78 Comments
    CFS
    Sep 22, 2014 22:40 AM

    Silver and gold are behaving strangely.
    The fact that while London was open today nothing happened in silver may mean physical supplies are finally depleted.

      Sep 22, 2014 22:09 AM

      Shanghai has only 92 tons of silver stock left. It used to be 1200 tons last year. They lost the rest even they practically forbid export. China is the biggest consumer of silver. Not only industrial, every child were blessed with a lot of silverware to expel bad luck and parents are happy to get for their only child. It costs almost nothing now. My kids got a few of these items on arms and legs from the grand parents even they were born here.

        Sep 22, 2014 22:16 PM

        Interesting Lawrence. Thank you

        Sep 22, 2014 22:17 PM

        Nice recap Lawrence!

          Sep 23, 2014 23:52 AM

          Link please. Not saying I doubt you but what is the source of your information, Lawrence?

      Sep 22, 2014 22:16 PM

      Supply may be depleted but the physical market is still not in control. Maybe one day it will take charge again but I don’t see that happening soon.

      Sep 22, 2014 22:59 AM

      Ha Ha!!! I Love David. Buy now or be priced out FOREVER!!!!!

        Sep 22, 2014 22:17 PM

        That is certainly going out on a limb!

          Sep 22, 2014 22:26 PM

          Al, it is disappointing. You should know David more than every one here. You should know he is not a perma bull. He helped a lot of people buy low and sell high. I definite heard him asking people to take profit in 2011. Many times. It is the low now. And what do you think he should say? You are the last one I would guess who will say this.

            Sep 22, 2014 22:16 PM

            I am not sure why you are saying this Lawrence.

            All I am saying I’d that I’d a very gutsy call and he must be very sure.

            You should know I have known David for a very, very long time and I do respect him.

            Sep 22, 2014 22:30 PM

            Al,

            I apologize for my misunderstanding. David is one of the few analysts who still have a good track records left.

            Can you bring him on?

          Sep 23, 2014 23:55 AM

          Exactly. He cannot substantiate what he is claiming except by estimation and tea leave reading. It is not a facts based analysis but just another outside theory that may or may not pan out. Virtually none of the similar claims I have read in the past many years ever held any weight. So why is David making this new claim now?

        Sep 22, 2014 22:03 PM

        Come on he have a great year in 2010.

        Sep 22, 2014 22:20 PM

        In all fairness Bird he is saying that the next spike will be down. To me David sounds a lot like many of the people on this site saying that there is more downside before the upward move. It is no fun trying to catch a falling knife…

          Sep 22, 2014 22:37 PM

          That was what you took away from the video? That a spike down was at hand?

          In all fairness, David is pandering to fairly deep fears, Cory. He said ““The bigger problem all exists in the debt markets, and the debt markets is where the problem is really. When that problem blows up, there’s going to be a run to gold unlike anything in the history of mankind”.

          “In the history of mankind”…..I don’t think that is a usual kind of comment but maybe you do. The rest of the interview was in a similar vein. Are we all so numb to the fear projections that this all sounds normal now?

          And don’t forget, when the trouble comes you won’t be able to buy precious metals at any price because the paper markets have distorted the true price discovery mechanism!

          Lets just say I am getting pretty sour on the fear parade, OK.

          Sep 23, 2014 23:42 AM

          By the way Cory, please don’t get me wrong. I like David and think he is a good guy. It is only the language being used by everyone in the business that is getting on my nerves lately. Those same fear-based theories are rampant on this site too as it is on virtually all gold oriented web sites. We are confronted by them almost everyday and the most distorted ideas are repeated endlessly by people with no knowledge of gold mining whatsoever but who seem to excel in their bitterness towards everything government or big bank.

          Here is an amusing and enlightening post from John Kaiser that is worth reposting (if John does not mind) and it kind of sums up the feelings a lot of us have where the pro-gold and pro-silver philosophy is concerned.

          I think it is fair to say that many of us feel the Austrian philosophy and hard money crowd are doing a real disservice to the gold mining sector as their voices, interviews and posts have overwhelmed all other thoughtful dialogue on the topic of gold.

          You simply cannot avoid the panic crowd anywhere on the net or in the media anymore. Nor can we find refuge from the end of times theories about financial Armageddon and how gold will be the last man standing to save the lucky few from economic catastrophe.

          It is just mind numbing on some levels and extremely counterproductive to the industry and to the formation of investor viewpoints on why gold is actually a beneficial element in a balanced portfolio. In the background we have the miners themselves who actually do the hard work and are being subjected to this endless parade of philosophical garbage.

          I would call it an assault on our sensibilities. Nobody has done more damage to the business of gold mining than those who keep promulgating and compounding the same repeated ideas of manipulation, paper trading theft, conspiracy shenanigans and insider cabals. It has become so pronounced that their ideas are widely embraced throughout the investor community such that gold is considered a high risk vehicle by most ordinary people!

          Here is part of a letter John wrote addressing his thoughts on the topic:
          ————————-
          “The Goldman Sachs drumbeat for $1,000 gold is taking its toll on the resource sector whether or not a company is connected with gold. The narrative is simple. Global economic growth is weakening, but the US economy is limping along sufficiently to justify the end of QE and the start of gradually rising interest rates, none of which is helpful in the short term for global economic growth, but bound to drive up the US dollar with the added benefit of further dampening inflation in the cost of imported goods, though ultimately setting the stage for another global recession, which is neither good for raw material demand nor gold demand.

          Once gold drops through $1,180 it will unleash the final capitulation within the junior resource sector as shareholders totally disgusted with the conventional ideologically tainted gold bug narrative liquidate every resource junior still in their accounts.

          In a sense this will be liberating, because it will rid the market of its obsession with advanced gold projects whose ounces in the ground are supposed to become very valuable when gold charges back above $1,500. I think the conventional gold bug narrative is absolute garbage, and I think it will in the next couple years be replaced by my alternative narrative which sees gold at $2,000 in real terms by 2020, provided we avoid descending into the global depression the Austerians so desperately crave in their delusion that it will be others licking their boots rather than they licking the boots of those who understand how unfettered “free markets” really work”.
          ———-

          Thanks John! Well said!!!!

            Sep 23, 2014 23:29 AM

            Basically what I am saying is that a rather small group of gold and silver promoters and popular newsletter writers are wrecking the business of gold mining itself. In their zeal for income, subscribers, public attention and self glorification they have effectively bitten off their own noses despite their faces and the outcome of their extremist vocalizations and accusations is that public interest in precious metals has plummeted.

            I am quite certain that was not the desired result they were seeking.

            It is clear to me that the miners themselves need to fight back in an attempt to bring some sanity back to metals markets. Maybe that handful of worst offenders (there are only about thirty popular names) need a seat on a board of a mining company to get them to change their tunes a little.

            Or maybe they need to stop sponsoring the sites that keep promoting the fear agenda as that narrative has clearly been working against their own self interests. In all the past few years as the bizarre cult of gold has grown in strength all we have seen as a reward is that genuine interest in investing in companies has dropped off a cliff.

            Fortunately the solution to silence the gold bugs is that they are caused to suffer losses so dear they exit gold and simply never return to the discussion. That is what is happening now as the market itself responded to the hype by staying away in droves and refusing to participate except by playing on short term price volatility.

            And I think that is what John is getting at in his post above. The new gold narrative is one where the voices of fear, paranoia, hype and gloom are more or less silenced as the majority turns its back on their wild accusations and distorted beliefs.

            We can start the repair process right here today by not entertaining any more of that pathetic dross and not giving a spotlight any more to those who are the worst offenders. I am sure it will be along process of evictions though.

            Ultimately, only a very low gold price will shut those idiots up once and for all.

    Sep 22, 2014 22:47 AM

    When $1,050 comes, the prediction will be $850. People who don’t buy will never buy except at near top. There are always excuses.

      Sep 22, 2014 22:18 PM

      Yep, always Lawrence!

    bb
    Sep 22, 2014 22:49 AM

    $1050? could be, Goldman called that I think, they have been the accurate “callers” as far as Ive seen, last few years anyway.
    Lots of supply available and low demand, maybe the “shortage” talk will finally end and those saying there is a shortage will expose themselves as having an agenda or just plain foolish.

    I wonder if there is any way to find accurate numbers for silver, enough so we can believe the numbers anyway.
    There is obviously a heck of a lot more availble than is reported, the story of billions around years ago and less than a billion around now could be “hogwash”, how would we know?

      Sep 22, 2014 22:36 PM

      The only hog wash is your chicken scratch. …BB

      Its all over the board.

      Why don’t you wrap it up. Take the scratch mutilated BS
      and go. Your calls on gold are so repetitious its now ancient
      news. Don’t you ever stop. You don’t. Neither will I till you do.

        Sep 23, 2014 23:58 AM

        Gold is in a bear market, HH. It cannot recover under the current circumstances with the long list of headwinds now against it. These include, in no particular order, the following major considerations:

        1) An absence of genuine inflation threats
        2) Fears of a global commodity deflation particularly where a China hard landing is concerned.
        3) The inevitability of rising interest rates in the US.
        4) A secular downtrend in commodity prices.
        5) A strengthening US Dollar.
        6) Initiatives from the ECB that are intended to devalue the Euro against a basket of currencies.
        7) Extremely poor investor sentiments towards precious metals prices.
        8) Rising US equity markets that are drawing in the vast majority of capital.
        9) Investor acknowledgement that geopolitical scares are actually beneficial for US equities!
        10) Your incessant bleating that gold is in a bull market when it is clearly in the jaws of a bear.

        There is much more actually. But ten point is quite enough for today. The important points are that gold is being squeezed by a combination of inflation outlooks, interest rate changes, currency trends, Central Bank policy initiatives and investor emotions with regard to metals.

        What we can look forward to is that as precious metals prices keep falling the opportunities to invest beneficially for the long term in a great sector do indeed improve.

        Many of us await the time that prices finally stabilize and a true bottom is formed. We are not there yet and the recent chart action should clearly be warning you that the trend is not your friend on the long side.

        Thankfully, most like yourself who are all-bull all the time have retired from this site and gone away. What most of us here now want is objective viewpoints on this specific market and not a lot of cheery pom-poms, razzle-dazzle and cheer-leading as it adds nothing of value to the discussion anymore.

        So yeah, I disagree with pretty much everything you write.

          Sep 23, 2014 23:33 AM

          Well good for you Bird.

          There isn’t anything you post that makes any difference to me
          either. You ignore anything and everythinng that is bullish including
          divergences.

          SEE YA AT THE FINISH LINE….lets compare notes then.

          BTW….is their a trash bin large enough to dispose of all
          your scribble at the finish line. Because thats where its
          all gonna end up.

          NOT ONLY THAT IF THIS IS NOT A BEAR MARKET
          IN GOLD YOU SHOULD SIGN OFF INDEFINITELY.

          I will do the same if it is a bear market.

          Or we can debate until you decide to leave for good.

          Taking your analysis that’s grade school quality thats doing
          everyone on here an injustice.

          LIKE SHAKING EVERYONE ON HERE THATS BULLISH ON GOLD

          fear mongering…..you better be right about the gold bear.

            Sep 23, 2014 23:21 AM

            I may be one of the last contrary voices on a site such as this. You can satisfy yourself that the hostility types like you promote and all the collective drivel you have written even as gold crashed from 1920 dollars has exterminated all sane discussion.

            Sep 23, 2014 23:35 AM

            There is not anything you post that makes a difference to me either, HH. Just to be clear, I do not respect anything you say because it is always emotionally loaded garbage in my opinion. On any given day the most infantile comments I read on these threads all come from your keyboard.

            Sep 23, 2014 23:39 AM

            I don’t promote any drivel. Just hard cold facts.

            Your fear mongering is getting old bird.

            One last voice uh bird…you. You don’t even
            know what your talking about.

            SEE YA AT THE FINISH LINE.

            Hopefully you will refrain from posting all your nonsense
            when this is all over. Looking forward to it.

            Sep 23, 2014 23:45 AM

            Divergences bird are emotionally loaded garbage.

            Since when ?

            Like I said see you when this is all over. Your no ones friend.

            Only if they listen to you. Now ordering around Big Al

            YOU HAVE A LOT OF NERVE…. nothing more to discuss.

            Now be a good little boy and run slong.

            Sep 23, 2014 23:05 AM

            The fact is…gold dropped almost 130 dollars in less than sixty days. Even little girls know it where smart guys like you got totally smoked. Keep stacking there buddy! I have decided I will encourage you guys from now on. The sooner you fall the better.

            Sep 23, 2014 23:52 AM

            Sure it dropped a buck 30.

            SO WHAT…oh dear. …oh my

            WHERE DID YOU GO TO SCHOOL WITH REGARD TO INVESTING.

            Hallerious…jaw flappin wing flappin…. no cold hard facts

            Have a good trip to the north pole.

        Sep 23, 2014 23:12 AM

        Final note to Al, Cory and all….

        The sooner we can all get back to discussing gold and the miners from a sensible, objective point of view the sooner this bear will come to an end. I would encourage you to not promote the worst offenders who are basically wrecking the business end of the industry with their incessant bleating about conspiracies, manipulations, financial Armageddon theory and all the hundreds of crazy off-the-wall nut ideas about why and when gold will rise to the moon.

        Nobody else in the investment world cares about that dross. Unfortunately the wild theories are far more interesting to a select few but the outcome is that most popular gold sites no longer have any credibility left.

        I am very sorry to say this but yours is included in the crazy camp when you promote guys like Dan Kurz and the multitude of insane theories that form the basis of the daily discussion. The rational actors who used to come here have all moved on to more objective sites and will not likely return as long as the current themes get all the air time.

          Sep 23, 2014 23:23 AM

          +1

            Sep 23, 2014 23:58 AM

            Thanks Skeeta. If only a few like yourself begin to agree then maybe as a group we can start to change the narrative and turn gold investing back into a popular hobby while disgorging ourselves of the idiots who seem to rule the trade right now!

            Sep 23, 2014 23:44 AM

            All your fear mongering Bird helped Skeeta sell out at the bottom.

            That’s what you did Skeeta. At least you have a friend. Good luck
            with it too. All of Birds posts are nothing more than fear mongering
            and scaring gold bulls. Surprised you haven’t csught on yet Skeeta.
            I announced here so many times more than 20 or so.

            Sep 23, 2014 23:23 AM

            Skeeta’s decision is his own. Do not forget it was the drivel people like you were spouting that was partly responsible for him not selling out at much, much higher prices. He perhaps beleived the crap and venom you people elicited. In the meantime, I do not know where metals prices are going nnext. Neither do you despite all your BS and rhetoric.

            Sep 23, 2014 23:13 AM

            Bird…..always full of bird duty.

            I have always claimed precious metals are high risk.

            Never stated anything is 100 percent.

            Now take all your dirt and bird duty AND GO !!!

            It really stinks up a place. Bird crap…its no good.

            Phweeee….smell it 10000 miles away.

    Sep 22, 2014 22:50 AM

    Like the Chinese,I will keep adding gold to my savings upon weakness provided by the paper manipulators.

      Sep 22, 2014 22:20 PM

      That is what we have done regarding silver.

    Joe
    Sep 22, 2014 22:09 AM

    bb,
    There is no shortage, especially in silver. The only people spouting off nonsense about shortages are those selling metals to bagholders.
    Just look at the recent darling, Palladium. It and Platinum are getting destroyed, so basically there’s no safe haven in ANY of the PMs now.
    Get out of your PM holdings now because if you don’t you’ll be waiting YEARS for them to rise back up to the price you bought them at.
    Imagine all the people who bought silver in the late 70s when it was over 20 bucks an ounce. They had to wait almost 30 years to get their money back.

    THE PM BULL MARKET IS OVER!!!!!!!

      bb
      Sep 22, 2014 22:30 AM

      kinda my thinking Joe, the “bad” guys goldman have been correct all along, the “sprotts”” “Bos” are giving people the “willies”
      Looks like they have an agenda.
      Just listened to Morgan, he was saying silver was never going below 18.17 oh well, then he says cant buy in “size” it would move the price up, guess no one is buying in “size”.

      There was lottsa talk of “peak oil” Check Mikey Fulp, “peak” seems to be bs.
      From everything Ive read, the Zietgeist has been correct from the beginning, no shortage in anything, other than water in California I guess.

      Morgan says “historic” run to gold, why? nobody will sell a cup of coffee for gold now, why would they tomorrow?

      Guess Im crazy tho, I still figure 5% physical gold(of investable income) is a good idea.

        Sep 22, 2014 22:23 PM

        Agree bb!

        Sep 22, 2014 22:10 PM

        bb,

        Yes, having 5-10% in physical PM’s, primarily gold, has shown to be beneficial when it comes to portfolio diversification. Over the long term it lowers the volatility of one’s portfolio as measured by the standard deviation making your portfolio generally less risky. The same goes true for having 10-20% in stocks. Also having a decent percentage in high quality bonds, Cd’s, money markets.

        So anyone not having any one of these asset classes is losing out on the benefits over the long-term. And this is what I recommend to everyone that I know. I also recommend that people put some money into their 401k plan and into IRA’s. Normal common sense recommendations.

        And yes, I know that some of you believe that the financial system and economy is going to crash any day now and that the government is going to steal your money out of your retirement plans. And that all money, including insured deposits, that are in the banks will be part of the so-called “bail-in” plans. And that any PM’s in your safe deposit boxes will be confiscated. And you will lose everything and only Gold will be left standing and without that your as good as dead. So please save your breathe! I have already studied these things and know that half of what is said about them is not accurate.

          Sep 22, 2014 22:43 PM

          I am with you JMiller. The worries are getting so overblown lately that there is almost no room left for casual observations anymore. Every word and every comment must be more worrisome and extreme than the next or it does not register.

      Sep 22, 2014 22:17 AM

      There is no shortage of silver since governments dumped silver mankind have produced in the last few thousand years on the market in less than 30 years. Where are our silver coins floating around before? They are gone in the last decade. Now no government has silver stock pile other than India and China and China sold a lot of it in 2000s. They are the
      Largest importer. Nobody predicted it and everyone thought china will be the source of the cheap silver. I remember it was said in most silver analysis when I started to pay attention to silver in 2003-2004 timeframe.

      Sep 22, 2014 22:22 PM

      Depends entirely on what a person’s motive is. Don’t you are, Joe?

    CFS
    Sep 22, 2014 22:12 AM

    Joe, There is no shortage in silver at a price. That price, however, is considerably above $20.

      Sep 23, 2014 23:26 AM

      Actually CFS, I will argue with you there. Silver stocks are quite sufficient at the current time even at these low prices. There is not a shortage that cannot currently be met with existing investor and industry demands.

      Has supply fallen to zero at 18 dollar silver? Have thousands of futures contracts and traders suddenly stood for delivery? No they have not. The business day to day is still one of speculation on price and little more.

    Sep 22, 2014 22:24 AM

    I think gold was heading down nicely towards about $1,000 until the Ukraine crisis kicked off. Then we had spikes and dips all dependent upon whether one hour it was peace in our time or the next hour that Putin was sending the tanks in.

    Heading into winter now no one in the EU wants to trade Russian gas for saving the Ukraine and NATO clealry no longer has the military might to do anything against Russia… so I think that crisis is now over and gold will just head down.

    We might get a spike when Putin consolidates his positions in Ukraine sometime in the coming months but the West is not going to go to war over Ukraine.

      Sep 22, 2014 22:27 PM

      It terms of geopolitical issues, I would put much more importance in western geopolitical and economic events!

    Sep 22, 2014 22:11 AM

    Gary’s cycles continue to drive me crazy. Now there is this three year cycle he is pulling out of thin air that indicates a low no earlier than summer. Why wasn’t he speaking of this cycle a couple months ago when he was suggesting a reversal in the trend. Bottom line, he can find a cycle to fit whatever the trend is. His commentary is painful and makes zero sense. On the longer term, cycle theory makes some sense but otherwise I clearly do not get it.

    Sep 22, 2014 22:31 AM

    Peter,
    You don’t get it because you aren’t listening to what I’m saying. The three year cycle I talk about in the interview is for commodities (CRB). Apparently you didn’t pay close enough attention to catch that.

    Now if the CRB is heading down into it’s 3 year cycle low then gold is unlikely to bottom until that process is finished or almost finished.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CRB&p=D&yr=10&mn=10&dy=0&id=p91222234639&a=368638872&listNum=1

    Sep 22, 2014 22:35 AM

    BTW stocks look like they are going to move down into the daily cycle low that I’ve been predicting right on schedule. Now we just need the perma bears to come back out and tell us again how this time for sure is the end of the bull market and a major top.

    Again it’s very unlikely it will be. This is just a normal corrective move to ease the overbought conditions and tamp down sentiment. That will recharge the marekt and set the stage for another push higher once the cycle low is complete.

      Sep 23, 2014 23:27 AM

      I happen to agree with you once again Gary. We are setting a record here lately!

    Sep 22, 2014 22:36 AM

    If gold $1050 happens gold is done for a decade or so. If it can not bottom out at 1200 for year and a half then what makes one think it will bottom out at 1050? The sentiment at 1050 will be suicidal not horrible as it is now. We are either bottom out at 1200 and going way higher or we are going to super bear market that will last years. You chose your side. Technically i think we may go there but i just don’t see how gold can decline any further. If that is the case it’s pure bear market Period.

      Sep 22, 2014 22:25 PM

      I feel as though we can climb back from the $1050 level. I don;t think we will see a spike but I continue to believe the east will provide a base and when something significant happens in the financial markets that will be the driver. It won’t be a happy time and gold believers will be questioning their investments but it will not complete crash.

    Sep 22, 2014 22:38 AM

    Well every D-wave decline of this secular bull market has eventually tested the previous C-wave top. The last C-wave top came in 2008 at $1020. So gold wouldn’t be doing anything unusual if it tested 1050.

      Sep 22, 2014 22:57 AM

      2008? You know that there have been nearly 4 trillion dollars coming out thin air between now and then? You may say they are all in bank vaults but it is not true. FED bought treasury and MBS and these money are all out to the general public as federal spending and mortgages. Not mentioning other countries have printed as much if not more. It is not gold in danger, it is the fiat currencies. They don’t have to be printed any more.

        Sep 22, 2014 22:29 PM

        I happen to agree with you, Lawrence.

          Sep 23, 2014 23:31 AM

          Sorry, but I do not agree.

        Sep 22, 2014 22:37 PM

        You are correct, Lawrence. QE is not simply “printing money” as many people wrongly believe. What is being done is called an asset swap.

          Sep 22, 2014 22:12 PM

          Yes, I think FED got a basket of bad assets if they can be called asset at all. They are going to keep them FOREVER.

            Sep 23, 2014 23:36 AM

            Typical distorted and badly biased viewpoint, Lawrence. It is why you long-only gold investors cannot make any money as prices fall relentlessly. All of you fail to grasp the macro picture of what is taking place and none of you seem to understand even the basics of how algorithmic trading is programmed. Hint: They use basic tools and metrics that have stood the test of time. These are inflation and interest rates, commodity prices and their trends and currency values. They do not as a rule program in data like what you are suggesting because it is wholly subjective and not useful for trading purposes. Maybe you need to give it a rest, man.

      Sep 22, 2014 22:16 PM

      Gary I’m profiting with puts in gdxj, do you see gold going to 1050 in the coming summer? If gold breaks below 1180 do you see it going quickly to 1126 as rick does?…anything else you would like to add I’m all ears for details.

        Sep 22, 2014 22:34 PM

        Proud,
        Too much to try and answer here. I cover all that in my nightly reports.

    ken
    Sep 22, 2014 22:26 PM

    USD is the currency of choice int he world. To say otherwise is being disingenuous.

    It is clear from what the market is telling you that everything else is toilet paper, including the metals… I was on the 1990 gold crash bus, it was not pretty for many people…

    That is what the markets are telling you. You can choose to fight it it is your privilege as a citizen.

    But it would be prudent to hedge the mess called Gold which has bankrupted many people.

    I own PM’s and will probably never part from them. But they are small part of my trade

    I own Euros, USD, and used to own tons of high quality stocks, and biotech… I have sold all my stocks and sit in cash with the physical blocking open downstairs…..

    The ride the last 5 years was great.

    The BABA IPO was the last great IPO and they had to keep the boat afloat until that went through….

    Now that it has – I believe that is your Lehman moment….

    Everyone is rushing to door as the ladder points downwards and the stupid is now all in….

    Sep 22, 2014 22:10 PM

    So that Bo(zo) Polny says 2000$ plus for gold, Gary says 1050$ for gold.

    Glad to see that everyone sees the same thing, considering both are using cycles..

      Sep 22, 2014 22:43 PM

      Good point which is why i was asking Gary how his cycles differ from Bo’s.
      I do not see gold breaking below 1180 at all regardless the manipulation especially after basing for year and half. But if it does Gold is dead in my opinion. Why i don’t think it can recover from 1050 if it had issues with 1200. So since i don’t think gold is dead or will be therefore i can not go to 1050. lol.

        Sep 22, 2014 22:41 PM

        I don’t know what kind of cycles analysis Bo is using so I couldn’t say why they differ, although it seems pretty clear the call for $2000 gold was more of a sales tactic than a real prediction as it never had any real chance of materializing.

          Sep 22, 2014 22:50 PM

          Agree Gary.

      Sep 23, 2014 23:37 AM

      Go with Gary. The trend is still undeniably down after almost four years.

    Sep 22, 2014 22:29 PM

    How long can it stay there if it does go to 1050?
    Which producer makes a profit at 1050?

      Sep 22, 2014 22:04 PM

      Robert,

      I think the mining industry and more specific the gold & silver explorers and select high cost producers are staring down the barrel of their “Waterloo Moment”. The precipitous drop in prices is starting to place extreme pressure on balance sheets, exploration budgets, administration expenses, and internal morale.

      When I use the term “Waterloo Moment”, I’m not trying to sound like a raving lunatic (though some think I am) or trying to sell an agenda. I think its a forward looking observation that is very easy to see with simple analysis.

      The time frame for a washout cleansing of mining companies themselves simply can’t be guessed with any certainty. It won’t be an event, its a long process. My theory is, over the next few years, if price stagnates or stays flat, we PM mining investors are going to see massive consolidation of even the large companies. This thesis does not mean doom and gloom, it means opportunity.

      I think its possible that we could see companies combining forces that we never thought possible, just to stay alive as a profitable operation. I’m talking about friendly combinations of miners such as Gold Corp (GG) and Agnico Eagle (AEM). I wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see extreme hardships play havoc and force their hands in this direction.

      We already know that the two behemoths Barrack Gold and Newmont Mining combination is just a matter of time.

      I just named a few companies but you can add in most all of the well known top producers in the mix. The list goes on and on. Of course most of this will be dictated by necessity, not by choice.

      This will be painful process but will, or should open up superb opportunities with in the sector, all things being equal.

        Sep 22, 2014 22:17 PM

        Agreed. But combining two bad companies will not produce a good one. What they can do is to produce at their best reserve and produce a lot less gold. Then they can hope the price goes up faster than cost before they exhauste their best reserve and there is nothing to mine, period.

        Sep 23, 2014 23:39 AM

        Good post Vortex. A few people around here had best start watching their miners closely because their is indeed pain coming for the sector as prices keep declining and profits evaporate.

          Sep 23, 2014 23:42 AM

          Thanks Bird,

          Ya know, I really find no joy talking about the miners and the sector as I do because overall its been real good to me. And I do like the industry as an investment.

          Having said that, I’ve just got to be realistic about this current down cycle we’re going through. I just don’t see any reason to chase any of the miners when I know I can get them cheaper in the future.

          And possibly while playing it cautious I can side-step some serious moments that may involve insolvency. Right now there is no need to back yourself into a corner and take on undue risk. I might miss some profits, but thats OK.

          Thats my take for now.

    Sep 22, 2014 22:04 PM

    Well, well, well. How many of you were around last Winter when week after week Gary was calling for $1030 gold? For some reason that changed in February if I remember correctly. Now $1050, I wonder why the change?

      Sep 22, 2014 22:39 PM

      What changed was gold generated a left translated intermediate cycle and a lower intermediate low.

      If gold could somehow make a higher intermediate high I’ll change direction and forego a move to 1050, but as of today it’s set up to break 1179 either in Oct. or Nov. and if not tjs fall then next summer.

    Sep 22, 2014 22:18 PM

    Haven’t visited the site in quite a while… came in today to judge the sentiment on a bad day. I see it is as pessimistic as ever. I think this is the best contrary anecdotal evidence you can have — when sentiment is bad on a precious metals discussion board.

    When the choir can’t stand the preacher, how much worse can it get?

    In any event, I must be as stupid as the Chinese government, because I added to physical again. Will continue to do this, during the intermediate pockets of weakness, for as long as they’ll let me.

    For the few on here who are still looking for a reason to own gold — just remember that the Chinese are continuing to mine it IN China for an all-in cost that exceeds $2000 per ounce. Some argue north of $2500. In my opinion, they are the smartest people in the room and if they’re willing to exchange 2000+ of their dollar bills for every domestic ounce of mined and refined gold, I guess I feel comfortable buying it for less than $1300.

    For those keeping score, I still own all my mining shares. Was down about 3% on the day today.

    Have a good Autumn everybody. (will post to the other boards as well, just to say ‘hello’ to anyone I’ve missed here)