Can gold be considered to be in a secular bear market
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Thank you, Matthew!
Yes, Matthew, I will pay attention to a lot of these analysts when they stop changing their opinion like changing thier child’s diaper. Even they are wrong, at least I don’t feel dizzy.
ditto on Matthews comments……………shorts , got to change their diapers today,good one Lawrence………………
I would be curious to hear your opinion of Doc’s commentary today.
At least Doc does not pretend his prediction is for sure. I agree that you can predict what market will do in the near term but the outcome depends on manipulator’s motive. If they uses technical indicator to guide the masses to work with them, yes it most likely will happen. However, there are critical times that it will not happen and you are hurt.
I remember I read an article of an analyst last year. He said that his professor was in PPT and worked on foreign exchange intervention. Their ultimate tool is to create a market trend and bring all the players who bet against them on to their side. You hit market hard if it goes against you. Once the trend is long enough and convincing enough, even your enemies will be your friends. Look at the trend for the last couple of years, it is too obvious and too perfect. It carries too much artificial flavour. If you don’t see the trend, you are blind. But if you believe in it, you are stupid. This tactic is perfect if their enemy is a few hedge funds. But their real enemy is the general public to buy gold to protect themselves in particular for the east. So they are fighting the wrong war.
Ditto on everything discussed up above with respect to Matthew, Lawrence, Jerry and BIG AL
Thanks a lot.
Agree.
OK….jmiller….
What do you know….we agree on this one. :◆}
Just do the opposite. Make money most of the time.
So called guru’s and schmucks. Both are as bad as one another sometimes.
What do ya think about that……………..lol
Men of GOD need to take back this nation of morons…………..”Title to the message of the retreat I attended over the weekend.”…….Well, I added the morons….lol
Its a positive development Jerry.
jmiller is a gold investor. He’s on the same team.
Its the gold bashers we have to question who spend
all their time here. Nothin better to do.
No other hobbies in life. Crazy stuff man. Off the chain.
I don’t completely disagree with you Heavy. That is why we have a large group of people as guests.
Big Al…certainly is a good business model for investors.
The choices are many and we must decide who are we
going to believe.
I notice you are not real bias in favor of any guest.
You clearly state your own opinions on the matters.
I THINK ITS GOOD BUSINESS…BIG AL.
Sound business practices in a world of
Confusion. Very dangerous this game.
Nobody is a gold basher, HH.
Gold-bug basher is another story.
No Bird….just beating it in with a big stick.
Stop the madness Bird. Stop attacking Matthew
on almost every post. Try and be cool and reasonable.
THATS ALL !!!
According to investopedia, a secular trend is usually at least 10 years.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/secular.asp
You do not need to wait until a decade is over to call a trend. That is only useful for historians. What you need to do today is determine if said trend is in your favour or not in the present. If gold is indeed in secular decline that matters. I am hardly alone in that camp and there is a significant amount of evidence to suggest the gold bull is dead.
You don’t have a clue what you are talking about. GOLD IS IN A SECULAR UPTREND. No one needs to wait until a decade is over… blah, blah, blah!!!!!!!
My guess is someone who is retired and held their mining stocks from gold’s top ALL THE WAY DOWN from believing the gold pumpers would be the first to scream BS !!
….agreed they won’t have to wait a decade Matthew. But most of them have been shredded in the meantime.
“Pumper” gets thrown around way too much; just like “bubble.” People don’t seem to realize that an honest opinion can be wrong. In markets, lots of honest opinions will be wrong every day. Being wrong does not make you dishonest.
I disagree that many people held on “from gold’s top ALL THE WAY DOWN from believing the gold pumpers…” That is simply not true. They would have held on anyway. Dumb money is notorious for NOT acting professionally and NOT cutting losses. It likes to dig its heels in with the brilliant and original idea of getting out when its positions get back to what it paid.
The real BS is their actions. Each and every person who blames the opinions of others for their actions will always be losers because they let others think for them and therefore, decide their future.
I present my opinions as they are. To change them for the sake of a few non-thinkers would be dishonest and wrong.
Since the sheep tend to play only the short side, all the bearish pumpers have been free of criticism from their peers. Think about that one. Why don’t we call all the irrational bears pumpers when they turn up (and are WRONG) at each LOW? They are no different than the people that they criticize.
No Matthew, gold is Not in a secular uptrend until the time that we have evidence that it did follow through. Your insistence does not prove anything except your belief system. At this time gold is still falling and in case you didn’t notice Mr Chart guy, silver is attempting to retrace to the mean. That strongly suggests gold will follow. Sorry to say but silver ALREADY went parabolic and busted. That does not indicate there will any continuation of a past bull trend. I think you will be proven totally wrong on this. Just keep watching as it unfolds.
“You don’t have a clue what you are talking about”. — Mathew
Actually I do have a clue what I am talking about. That’s why I am here associating with you to begin with. My analysis of gold has been spot on since the top even as guys like you kept hollering I was a fool, idiot, moron and whatever other names you enjoy calling.
Give a little credit where it is due, Matthew.
Sorry Bird, but you are wrong. I guess you don’t remember this chart that I posted a month or two ago. It shows the secular uptrend very clearly (higher highs and higher lows!).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=M&yr=15&mn=0&dy=0&id=p11544197167&a=366074617&listNum=1
Silvers move in 2011 was a pipsqueak compared to its 1980 move and what is still to come for this cycle.
Your calls change as often as the drink in your hand. You get no credit for that. As for the names, you bring them on yourself with your own name-calling and attacks. Your opinions themselves don’t bother me at all. It’s YOU.
You are speculating based on past information. So far the market has spoken and it is telling you silver is heading into ever deeper waters. How far we do not know but the four year sell off has been spectacular so far. What is it now….67% decline and counting? I appreciate you *think* there will be a big turnaround any old day now but until and unless it actually happens you are still just guessing.
And getting back to silver….as I mentioned before, it ALREADY went parabolic. It peaked and crashed. It is still falling in price and will most likely overshoot to the downside as is the case with most retracements to the mean. By definition then we should all understand that the bull market already ended.
So when I say “ended” I mean specifically that the bull market is finished. It has already been finished for some years although nobody will acknowledge that easy to understand fact. I discussed this at length in past posts and the idea was rejected then as much as it is today. Yet here we are many, many months later and my thesis still holds water.
Your does not because it is emotion based.
You are TOO much with that “analysis” of yours. But hey, that’s what makes a market.
Who cares. So far I am correct….you….not so much.
Whatever you say, Bird, bb believes ya. Lol……….
Another diversion. Why mention bb when this is a discussion between you and I. At least I have attempted construct a case based on the evidence at hand. We are very likely to be in the midst of a secular decline in commodity markets and that means neither gold nor silver will be star performers. Also note my comments on silvers parabolic peak. Those are a strong indicator that what I am saying has merit.
All you are offering meanwhile is a personal insistence that I am wrong. What the hell is that worth?
It’s between you and me, not “you and I.”
He missed the bull in THE DOW COW too.
Its all short term trading…one day in and out.
DAY TRADING….lets get this correct.
ONCE AND FOR ALL…. its fine but investors need to know.
No medium term or long term vision.
Its a day trading operation.
At this point in time Heavyhitter, it certainly is.
No body knows the short term move and even the cycles continue for sure. It is for the hindsight. However, as long as you realize that money creation results in inflation and therefore higher gold price, it is a sure win by betting for long term. The reason for this is the mining cost goes up with inflation. However, this increased price may or may not benefit the miners, just look at the mining shares since 2000. Chasing the daily move is like racing with superman. You are competing with HFT and insiders, which are much faster and smarter in short term moves or maybe in the intermediate moves because they can make it so. You are going to be destoyed by these moves.
Thanks Al and Rick too. I really appreciate the sensible comments from you guys.
Rick seems to be the only level-headed person here. It’s a bear market for the PMs, all of them.
Done
Over
Finished
Maybe we’ll see a bounce going into the midterm elections this year, but it will fade fast. Same thing the the presidential election in 2016.
Sell into any gap up and then short the metals…. easy money.
Never know, Joe, never know!
We are at the end of a cyclical bear. The secular bull is alive and well. We’ll see who’s right soon enough.
Thanks for the vote of confidence!
Lets not get too emotionally committed to one side or another. As Rick suggested, who cares which way it goes as long as you get the direction right. The whole discussion is moot at this point.
“YES ” THE LOCAL VILLAGE IDIOT , is back again…..Telling all you villagers to buy silver…
Let’s face it the idiot is bound to be right…at least once in his life.
Matthew – thank goodness for your continued SANITY under adverse conditions……if I could I would buy more silver here and store it away..what an absolute, unequivocable bargain…who’d of thunk that it would be this cheeeeeeap!
Irish,
The day you become the VILLAGE IDIOT is the day I thrown in the towel..aint gonna happen..:)
Well, that is really hard to say SD Marc.
Mr. Irish does get pretty out there some times. Maybe it’s the Guinness!
Thanks Marc. I just advised a relative to buy silver (he was somewhat surprised by the current price and called to ask me about it). I told him that it COULD go lower, so he should decide how he might feel if he bought today and it went to 15 or 16, or if he didn’t buy and went to 19 or 20. He concluded that he would rather grab the good deal and risk further downside than to risk getting less silver for his paper later. I then told him to consider buying half of the intended position now and waiting to see what happens. I got the feeling that he is just going to buy it all at once. In this case, I see no problem with that at all (big surprise).
Matthew….You gave very good advice..IMO….Well done.
Agreed that the upside is ‘potentially’ explosive Matthew….every dog has its day afterall…eventually !
Just hope he/she doesn’t sell the physical in desperation if the price drops below 15 to 14 to 13 to 12 or wherever ?
Family relatives have long memories when it comes to money,
They also often like to point the finger at someone else for their financial dilemmas.
Cheers.
Even I will be a buyer of physical at 15 or thereabouts. That seems a fair price to me given it was trading at the same price back in 2006 which is now many years in the rear view window. I will say though, I am really happy I trusted my instincts and charts and stayed the hell away from the physical market this long. It was the right thing to do and no doubt saved me thousands.
The funny thing is, I told family and friends in the summer of ’08 to get out of stocks (I was short as of July ’08). Months later, we argued about gold. A few of them had “professional” advisers with a bunch of spiffy letters behind their names telling them that “now is actually a good time to sell gold.” Gold was $700-$800 as they were patting me on the head. So… I’m not worried one way or the other about what they do with my opinions.
Cyclical bear, absolutely, but secular bear, not yet. The corrections of the mid 1970s in this sector; 1987 in conventional stocks; and even PMs in 2008 are examples of cyclical bear markets within bigger secular bulls.
It’s the rare trader that cares about the secular trend, so I can see why Rick considers it moot —for him it is.